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检索条件"机构=Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under MOE"

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Electricity price forecasting based on GARCH model in deregulated market

Electricity price forecasting based on GARCH model in deregu...

引用

7th International power Engineering Conference, IPEC2005

作者： Zheng, Hua Xie, Li Zhang, Li-Zi Electricity Market Research Institute North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China

ISBN: (纸本)9810544693

Since electricity market came into being, it has been generalized in many countries. In the research field of electricity market, electricity price has been one of the focused problems, which has great influence on the market. And then electricity price forecasting as a basic information tool to analyze the near future market, becomes more important than before. However, in such a competitive environment, the changes of electricity price are so volatile, even price spikes happened. So electricity price forecasting becomes more difficult. To solve above problem, we build a novel model to forecast electricity price based on GARCH (that is generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity), which fits for volatility modeling. First, electricity price is regarded as finance time series and analyze its volatility, which explains the presence of heteroskedasticity. Then price forecasting is proposed with GARCH model, which aims at modeling the dynamic character of price. Case studies testify the validity of the proposed model.

关键词： Electric rates

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Study on the Reduction of Identified Parameters of the power Load's Aggregated Motor Model with the Aim of Sustaining Its Representability

Study on the Reduction of Identified Parameters of the Power...

引用

IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Wang Peng Wu Yan-hong Hu Guo-qiang Ma Rui Yang Hua-chun He Ren-mu Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Beijing China

There exists a fatal disadvantage for the integrated induction motor load model of too many parameters, which leads to the difficulty of finding optimal parameters set in the identification process. For this reason, a model parameter reduction method is proposed in this paper, which divides the above 14 parameters into two parts: one fixed parameters part alpha F and the other part alpha C : parameters needing identification. After defining of the representability of the load model, the criterion of rational division of alpha F and alpha C is set as remaining the representability of the load model. Thus the strategy of parameter reduction belongs to the optimization methods. For avoiding the large scale optimizing process, the reduction method of building priority sequence based on parameters' sensitivity is proposed. In the end, a case study is given out on the basis of certain power grid measurement data, which verified the simplicity and effectiveness of the proposed method

关键词： Load modeling Induction motors power system modeling power system simulation Mathematical model Optimization methods power system dynamics Differential equations Helium Large-scale systems

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Analysis and Design of H ∞ controller in VSC HVDC systems

Analysis and Design of H ∞ Controller in VSC HVDC Systems

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IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Haifeng Liang Gengyin Li Guangkai Li Peng Li Ming Yin Electric Power University Baoding Hebei China Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education Baoding China Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education China

Through the analysis on voltage source converter (VSC) equations in dq0 coordinate system, the state space equation of the generalized plant is gained. By use of H infin theory, constant DC voltage H infin controller and constant AC voltage controller are designed. On the basis of establishing MATLAB simulation model for transmitting power to passive network via VSC-HVDC system, the simulation of control modes, such as constant DC voltage control, constant AC voltage control and constant reactive power control, is conducted. Simulation results show that the proposed controller can meet the need of supplying power to passive network and the control modes are effective

关键词： control systems HVDC transmission Voltage control Converters power conversion Equations Passive networks State-space methods MATLAB Mathematical model

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An application to set up a model to forecast electric rate adjusted through cos/spl Phi/ using regressive analysis

An application to set up a model to forecast electric rate a...

引用

International power Engineering Conference (IPEC)

作者： Fang Cao Lizi Zhang Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Beijing China

ISBN: (纸本)9810557027

A 2-step tariff mechanism is adopted in Chinese electric power market. That means the payment of the customers is calculated through the cosPhi of a net node. So the value of cosPhi is used to adjust the rate of consumer's tariff. But because of the policy, the value of the adjusted rate can't be calculated accurately in advance. Some problems always lie in how to choose a proper model to make sure the adjusted value of electric rate when to analyze the economic benefit. The paper firstly points out the disadvantage of traditional method on forecasting the adjusted rate through cosPhi. Then it presents a new method to establish the forecast model based on regressive analysis. The model proposed here was applied in a distribution company and given the reasonable result. The paper describes the applicability of the proposed model and gives some explanation for application

关键词： Predictive models Economic forecasting Reactive power Laboratories power system protection power system dynamics power system security monitoring control systems power generation economics

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A new ultra high-speed protection scheme based on wavelet analysis

A new ultra high-speed protection scheme based on wavelet an...

引用

7th International power Engineering Conference, IPEC2005

作者： Yang, Ming-Yu Yao, Wan-Ye Wang, Zeng-Ping Zhang, Ju Jiao, Yan-Jun Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China Automation Department North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Province China

ISBN: (纸本)9810544693

A new ultra high-speed protection scheme is proposed in this paper. Using wavelet transform with multiresolution analysis, the current signals is decomposed into a series of detailed wavelet components. The spectral energies of the wavelet components are calculated and then employed to detect the faults. Characteristics of the proposed ultra high-speed protection algorithm are analyzed and results of simulation studies are given. The results show that the proposed algorithm is promising and easy to implement for computer relaying application.

关键词： Electric power system protection

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Integrating radial basis function neural network with fuzzy control for load forecasting in power system

Integrating radial basis function neural network with fuzzy ...

引用

2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and DistributionConference and Exhibition - Asia and Pacific

作者： Sheng, Siqing Wang, Cong Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding 071003 Hebei Provinece China School of Electrical Engineering North China Electrical Power University Baoding Hebei 071003 China

ISBN: (纸本)0780391144

Short-term load forecasting of power system is not only the basis of scheduling of generating sets, but also the basis of working out the transaction schedule in electricity market. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting method based on combination of Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network and fuzzy control, uses on-line self-modify factor fuzzy control to eliminate forecast error on the basis of RBF neural network forecasting. The practical examples show that the accuracy of short-term load forecasting and training speed can be improved and gains the very satisfactory results by the proposed method. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： Electric load forecasting

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Synthetic quantitative assessment of power quality in competition market environment

Synthetic quantitative assessment of power quality in compet...

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IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Yonghai Xu Lei Chen Xiangning Xiao Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Ministry of Education Beijing China

A new method, which integrates the virtue of the probability and mathematical statistics with that of the fuzzy mathematics for power quality assessment, is proposed in this paper. The index showing an aspect of power quality is evaluated using probability and mathematical statistics respectively; the global unique index of these indexes can be obtained. The results obtained from each index unified are unified again using fuzzy synthetic appraisal in order to give an objective, overall and unique index of power quality. The special assessment method for voltage sag using the average sag energy index is also discussed. Finally, a transaction mode makes the maximum benefits for different unit commitment as objective function and takes the power quality into account is presented, and then power energy really becomes a commodity which would be evaluated a price according to power quality

关键词： power quality Voltage fluctuations Probability Statistics Mathematics power system harmonics Appraisal Algebra power markets power system economics

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Research on dynamic Mathematic Model of VSC − HVDC Based on Energy Conservation Principle

Research on Dynamic Mathematic Model of VSC − HVDC Based on...

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IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Guangkai Li Gengyin Li Chengyong Zhao Haifeng Liang Ming Yin Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding Hebei China

Voltage source converter (VSC) based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) technology is a kind of newly developed HVDC transmission technology. Based on analyzing the fundamental functions of VSC-HVDC, a dynamic mathematic model based on energy conservation principle is developed in this paper. The process of energy conversion and dynamic operation mechanism are analyzed. Theoretical analysis and the control system are validated by simulation on software PSCAD/EMTDC

关键词： Mathematics Mathematical model HVDC transmission Energy conservation Converters power conversion Voltage Energy conversion control system analysis control system synthesis

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Condition-Based Maintenance of Electrical Equipments Based on 1D3 Algorithm and Monte Carlo Stimulation

Condition-Based Maintenance of Electrical Equipments Based o...

引用

IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Li Ran Chen Li Gu Xueping Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding Hebei China

Condition-based maintenance is an advanced maintenance strategy which is based on the monitoring of equipments status and according to the results of monitoring and analysis people can arrange maintenance scientifically. When monitoring and analyzing the status of equipments, there are vast historical and on-line data to analyze. If we can find the main factors leading to equipment failure through analyzing the data and pay more attention to these factors, we can make maintenance decision more exactly and quickly. In this paper we propose to apply ID3 algorithm to classify the data according to the importance of their influence to equipment failure and then find the factors which influence equipments most. After finding the most important factors, apply Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the probability of equipment failure which occurs in their operational life span, and according to this we can pay more attention to monitor the factors which result in failure easily

关键词： Monte Carlo methods Condition monitoring Maintenance Equipment failure Data analysis Data mining Algorithm design and analysis Failure analysis power system reliability Time series analysis

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Analysis and control of Wind Farm Incorporated VSC-HVDC in Unbalanced Conditions

Analysis and Control of Wind Farm Incorporated VSC-HVDC in U...

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IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition: Asia and Pacific

作者： Ming Yin Gengyin Li Ming Zhou Yong Liu Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education North China Electric Power University Baoding Hebei China

With increasing attention to sustainable development and environmental protection, more and more countries turn to wind energy to reduce their dependence on traditional fossil fuel energy. Among the new challenges with this trend is how to integrate wind farm with existing AC network more effectively. The paper presents a possible measure based on VSC-HVDC, namely so-called wind farm incorporated VSC-HVDC (WVSC-HVDC). In the paper the wind farm along with an AC grid supplies to a passive network. The paper firstly introduces VSC-HVDC, and then presents a space vector based control strategy for supplying to a passive network. The rectifier controls DC voltage and reactive power that is needed by the wind farm. The inverter controls the AC bus voltage in the passive network. Simulations using PSCAD/EMTDC are performed to study the steady and transient behaviors of WVSC-HVDC. With harmonics analysis, the simulation results will be helpful for further understanding of the operation characteristics of WVSC-HVDC and its protection design

关键词： Wind farms Passive networks protection Voltage control Sustainable development Wind energy Fossil fuels Rectifiers Reactive power control Inverters

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