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Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar‑Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第4期14卷 586-599页

作者： Yamei Li Qiang Zou Jiansheng Hao Lijun Su State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences Islamabad 45320Pakistan Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The Karakoram highway(KKH)is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological *** climate changes drastically and directly infuences the frequency and magnitude of debris fows in this region,resulting in signifcant casualties and economic ***,the risk assessment of debris fows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely ***,in this study we used the debris fow data,historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris fow risk of the study region during the baseline period(2009–2018),2025s(2021–2030),2035s(2031–2040)and 2045s(2041–2050)under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 *** results show that the risk of debris fows increases with climate change,with the highest risk level in the *** diferent parts of this highway,the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest *** fndings are helpful for debris fow prevention and can ofer coping strategies for the existing line of the *** also provide some reference for the renovation,improvement,operation,and maintenance of the KKH.

关键词： Climate change Debris fows Karakoram highway Risk assessment

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过去千年黄河中下游地区耕地覆被变化定量重建

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2024年第5期34卷 921-941页

作者：杨帆张航何凡能王亚非周胜男董冠鹏 Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development Henan UniversityKaifeng 475001HenanChina Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China

Landscape in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in China has un-dergone significant changes for thousands of years due to agricultural *** of reliable long-term and high-resolution historical cropland data has limited our ability in un-derstanding and quantifying human impacts on regional climate change,carbon and water *** this study,we used a data-driven modeling framework that combined multiple sources of data(historical provincial cropland area,historical coastlines,and satellite da-ta-based maximum cropland extent)with a new gridding allocation model for croplands dis-tribution to reconstruct a historical cropland dataset for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River at a 10-km resolution for 58 time points ranging from the period 1000 to *** cropland area in the study area increased by 2.3 times from 21.87 million ha in 1000 to 50.64 million ha in *** 1393,the area of cropland increased slowly and was pri-marily concentrated in the Weihe and Fenhe *** 1393-1820,the area of cropland increased rapidly,particularly on the North China *** 1820,cropland cover has tended to become *** newly reconstructed results agreed well with remotely sensed data as well as historical document-based facts regarding cropland distribution.

关键词： land use/cover change gridding allocation cropland cover last millennium

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Spatio-temporal variations in ecological spaces and their ecological carrying status in China's mega-urban agglomerations

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第9期32卷 1683-1704页

作者： WANG Shihao HUANG Lin XU Xinliang LI Jiahui State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing100101China

The rapid expansion of China’s urban agglomerations in recent decades has resulted in over-occupied ecological spaces and increased ecological pressure that are restricting healthy regional *** paper examines the structure and characteristics of distribution of“production-living-ecological”spaces in five mega-urban agglomerations in China:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH),the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA),Chengdu-Chongqing(CY),and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MYR).We analyze spatial and temporal variations in the ecological spaces and factors influencing them from 1990 to 2020,and examine the comprehensive ecological carrying capacity and status of ecological spaces in the past 30 years based on the available water resources,regulation of water and air quality,and leisure and *** results show the following:(1)Urban agglomerations in different stages of formation and development represent varying area ratios of“ecological-production-living”*** modes of expansion and evolution of the living spaces are dominated by multi-center combinations as well as the spatial structure of ecological spaces,including barrier,compact,discrete,and fully enveloping spaces.(2)From 1990 to 2020,the area occupied by living spaces in urban agglomerations continued to increase significantly while that of spaces for ecological production *** in the GBA,ecological spaces have exhibited a trend of increase in area,especially in the past 10 *** area ratios and spatio-temporal variations in the“production-living-ecological”spaces indicate that the main functions of production and ecological spaces in mega-urban agglomerations have shifted from supply to regulation and culture,and reflect the transition from rapid urbanization to sustainable urbanization in China.(3)The comprehensive ecological carrying capacities of 78.6%,73.1%,54.5%,56.3%,and 25.8%of cities in BTH,YRD,GBA,CY and MYR are severely ove

关键词： mega-urban agglomerations “production-living-ecological”spaces ecological spaces ecological carrying capacity spatial and temporal variations

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Multi-scale coupling analysis of urbanization and ecosystem services supply-demand budget in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第2期33卷 340-356页

作者： ZHANG Fan XU Ning WANG Chao GUO Mingjing Pankaj KUMAR Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Economics and Management China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Key Laboratory of Land and Resources Strategy Research Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of ChinaBeijing 100812China Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Department of Geography Delhi School of EconomicsUniversity of DelhiNew Delhi 110021India

Rapid economic development and human activities have severely affected ecosystem *** of the spatial distribution of areas of rapid urbanization is the basis for optimizing urban-ecological spatial *** paper evaluated the spatial distribution of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,and then quantified the ecosystem services(ES)budget in the region based on an ES supply and demand *** results showed that(1)urbanization patterns in the BTH region were relatively stable from 2000 to 2015,with clear patterns of low levels of urbanization in the northwest and high levels in the southeast;(2)areas with positive ES budget values were found throughout the region,except in built-up areas,with high ES supply areas concentrated in the northwest,and high ES demand areas in the southeast;(3)at both the county and prefecture-city levels,urbanization had negative,positive,and negative correlations with ES supply,demand,and budget,respectively;(4)the coupling coordination degree(CCD)increased,with high CCD values in the *** on these results,policy recommendations include strengthening rational land-use planning and ecosystem management,promoting the coordinated development of the economy and ecological function,and coordinating the provision of production-life-ecological functions.

关键词： urbanization ecosystem services supply-demand coupling Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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青藏高原生态系统功能稳定性演化特征及分区

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第11期33卷 2193-2210页

作者：王欠鑫曹巍黄麟 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),also known as the Third Pole of the Earth,is a vital ecological security barrier for *** is a tremendously sensitive region affected by the impacts of global climate *** escalating intensity of climate change has presented profound challenges to its ecosystem functions and *** study first analyzes the spatiotemporal variations of the QTP ecosystem patterns and the key functions of the Plateau including water conservation,soil conservation,and windbreak and sand fixation from 2000 to *** clarifies the regional differences in ecosystem functions and their importance,further evaluates the stability of ecosystem functions,and lays a scientific foundation for an ecological civilization on the Plateau by implementing conservation and restoration *** main results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the wetland area in the QTP increased,while the grassland area significantly *** were improvements in water conservation and windbreak and sand fixation capacities,with annual rates of change being 3.57m~3·ha^(-1)·a^(-1)and 0.23 t·ha^(-1)·a^(-1),***,the overall soil conservation trend declined during the same period,with an annual change rate of-0.16 t·ha^(-1)·a^(-1).(2)The core areas of water conservation,soil conservation,and windbreak and sand fixation on the QTP accounted for 12.7%,13.9%,and 14.2%of the total area,*** core water conservation areas are mainly the southeastern QTP,Sanjiangyuan,and Naqu,while the core windbreak and sand fixation areas were concentrated in the central and western parts of the *** core soil conservation areas surrounded the entire interior of the Plateau.(3)From 2000 to 2020,the water conservation,soil conservation,and windbreak sand-fixation function on the QTP had higher stability in the southeastern and central parts,while stability was lower in the western *** the stability assessment and ecological protection and res

关键词： Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem functional stability ecosystem functional importance spatiotemporal change

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Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第2期13卷 169-178页

作者： Li-Li SUN Hui-Juan CUI Quan-Sheng GE Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China CNOOC Research Institute Ltd. Beijing 100027China

China has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before ***,the significant variations of provincial carbon emissions make it unclear whether they can jointly fulfill the national carbon peak and neutrality ***,this study predicts the emission trajectories at provincial level in China by employing the extended STIRPAT(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology)model to see the feasibility and time of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon *** found that most provinces can achieve peak emission before 2030 but challenging to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,even considering the ecological carbon *** provincial neutrality time is concentrated between 2058 and 2070;the sooner the carbon emission peaks,the earlier the carbon neutral will be *** aggregated carbon emissions at provincial level show that China can achieve its carbon emission peak of 9.64-10.71 Gt before 2030,but it is unlikely to achieve the carbon neutrality goal before 2060 without carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS).With high CCUS development,China is expected to achieve carbon neutrality in 2054-2058,irrespective of the socio-economic *** low CCUS development,China's carbon neutrality target will be achieved only under the accelerated-improvement scenario,while it will postpone to 2061 and 2064 under the continued-improvement and the business-as-usual scenarios,respectively.

关键词： China's carbon neutrality Peak emission Provincial emission CCUS STIRPAT

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喀斯特山地土壤侵蚀和产水量的最优解释

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第10期33卷 2077-2093页

作者：高江波张怡博左丽媛 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Accurately identifying the dominant factor of karst ecosystem services(ESs)is a prerequisite for the rocky desertification ***,the explanatory power of environmental factors on the spatial distribution of ESs is affected by scaling,and the quantitative research on the scale effect still needs to be further *** study used the geographical detector to access the explanatory power of environmental factors on soil erosion and water yield at different spatial resolutions,and then explored its differences in three geomorphological-type *** showed that slope and vegetation coverage were the dominant factors of soil erosion,and the interactive explanatory power between the two factors was *** by the universality of topographic relief and landscape fragmentation in the study area,the explanatory power of slope and land use type on soil erosion was optimal at low ***,elevation,and land use type were the dominant factors for the spatial heterogeneity of water yield,and the interaction between precipitation and land use type explained more than 95%of water *** spatial variability of elevation in different geomorphological-type areas affected its optimal explanatory power,specifically,in the terrace and hill-type areas,the spatial variability of elevation was weak,its explanatory power was optimal at high *** in the mountain-type areas,the spatial variability of elevation was strong,and its explanatory power was optimal at low *** study quantitatively identified the optimal explanatory power of ES variables through multi-scale analysis,which aims to provide a way and basis for accurate identification of the dominant factors of karst mountain ESs and zoning optimization.

关键词： optimal explanatory power scale effect soil erosion water yield karst mountainous areas

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全球超大城市空间扩张及分形特征

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2023年第12期33卷 2359-2376页

作者：侯亚丽匡文慧窦银银 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Megacities serve as global centers for economic,cultural,and high-tech *** structural features and population agglomerations are typical traits of urbanization,yet little is known about the morphological features and expansion patterns of megacities *** we examined the spatiotemporal variations of urban land in megalopolises from 2000 to 2020 using the Urban Expansion Intensity Differentiation *** fractal features and expansion patterns of megacities were analyzed using the Area-Radius Multi-dimensional Scaling *** land use efficiency was then evaluated based on the linear relationship between urban land area and *** found that Southeast Asia and China were the hotspots of urban expansion in megacities from 2000 to 2020,with urban land areas expanding by 3148.32 km^(2)and 5996.26 km^(2),*** morphological features and expansion patterns of megacities exhibited a growing trend towards intensification and compactness,with the average radial dimension increasing from 1.54 to *** annual decrease in fractal dimensions indicated the integration of inner urban *** America and Europe megacities showed a low urban land use efficiency,with a ratio of urban land area to population ranging from 0.89 to 4.11 in ***,South Asia and Africa megacities exhibited a high urban land use efficiency,with the ratios between 0.23 and *** results provide information for promoting efficient urban land utilization and sustainable *** is proposed to control the scale of urban expansion and to promote balanced development between inner and outer urban areas for achieving resilient and sustainable urban development.

关键词： megacities radial dimension radial dimension difference urban expansion urban land use efficiency

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Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires

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National Science Review 2024年第09期11卷 171-180页

作者： Gengke Lai Jialing Li Jun Wang Chaoyang Wu Yongguang Zhang Constantin M.Zohner Josep Pe?uelas Quansheng Ge International Institute for Earth System Sciences Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing University Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural ResourcesSchool of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing University The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Huangshan National Park Ecosystem Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of the Ministry of Education Jiangsu International Joint Carbon Neutrality Laboratory Nanjing University Department of Environmental Systems Science Institute of Integrative BiologyETH Zurich CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès

More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing(PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021%(～2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

关键词： vegetation photosynthesis phenology wildfire climate feedback Earth System model

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Paleoclimatic indication of X-ray fluorescence core-scanned Rb/Sr ratios: A case study in the Zoige Basin in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第1期64卷 80-95页

作者： Hanfei YANG Yan ZHAO Qiaoyu CUI Weihe REN Quan LI Key Laboratory of L and Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The X-ray fluorescence(XRF)core-scanned Rb/Sr ratios of lake sediments have been widely used as a proxy for chemical weathering intensity and past climate ***,some factors could affect Rb/Sr ratios,causing misinterpretation and limiting its *** this study,we present a high-resolution XRF core-scanned Rb/Sr record of core ZB13-C1 from the Zoige Basin in the eastern Tibetan *** validate its application,we correlated this record with the chemical index of alteration(CIA)and other paleoclimatic *** results showed that(1)the core-scanned Rb/Sr ratios and CIA were reliable proxies of chemical weathering intensity in fine-grained sedimentary sequences;(2)the low values of corescanned Rb/Sr ratios and CIA were significantly correlated with high total organic carbon content,arboreal pollen content,carbonate content,and C/N ratios,confirming its reliability as a proxy for the Asian summer monsoon intensity;(3)the corescanned Rb/Sr ratios at core depths of 25–0.3 and 56–47 m were unable to reliably reflect chemical weathering intensity due to both the grain-size effect and the low test *** study highlights the need for mutual verification of multiple indicators before accurately applying Rb/Sr as a paleoclimatic proxy in other similar study areas.

关键词： Rb/Sr ratios XRF core scanning Lake sediment Tibetan Plateau Paleoclimatic indication

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