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SSRN 2023年

作者： Makra, László Matyasovszky, István Tusnády, Gábor Ziska, Lewis H. Hess, Jeremy J. Nyúl, László G. Chapman, Daniel S. Coviello, Luca Gobbi, Andrea Jurman, Giuseppe Furlanello, Cesare Brunato, Mauro Damialis, Athanasios Charalampopoulos, Athanasios Müller-Schärer, Heinz Schneider, Norbert Szabó, Bence Sümeghy, Zoltán Páldy, Anna Magyar, Donát Bergmann, Karl-Christian Deák, Áron József Mikó, Edit Thibaudon, Michel Oliver, Gilles Albertini, Roberto Bonini, Maira Šikoparija, Branko Radišić, Predrag Mitrović Josipović, Mirjana Gehrig, Regula Severova, Elena Rodinkova, Victoria Palamarchuk, Olena Stjepanović, Barbara Ianovici, Nicoleta Berger, Uwe Kofol Seliger, Andreja Rybníček, Ondřej Myszkowska, Dorota Dąbrowska-Zapart, Katarzyna Majkowska-Wojciechowska, Barbara Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elzbieta Grewling, Lukasz Rapiejko, Piotr Malkiewicz, Malgorzata Šaulienė, Ingrida Shalaboda, Valentina Prykhodo, Olexander Maleeva, Anna Ščevková, Jana Bullock, James M. Institute of Economics and Rural Development Faculty of Agriculture University of Szeged Andrássy út 15 Hódmezővásárhely6800 Hungary Department of Meteorology Eötvös Loránd University P.O.B. 32 Budapest1518 Hungary Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics P.O.B 127 Budapest1364 Hungary Mailman School of Public Health Columbia University New YorkNY10032 United States Department of Global Health University of Washington SeattleWA98105 United States Department of Image Processing and Computer Graphics University of Szeged P.O.B. 652 Szeged6701 Hungary Biological and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Sciences University of Stirling Scotland StirlingFK9 4LA United Kingdom University of Trento Enogis s.r.l. Trento Italy Bruno Kessler Foundation Trento Italy HK3 Lab Orobix Life Srl Rovereto Bergamo Italy Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science University of Trento Trento Italy Terrestrial Ecology and Climate Change Department of Ecology School of Biology Aristotle University of Thessaloniki ThessalonikiGR-54124 Greece Departement of Biology Unit of Ecology and Evolution University of Fribourg FribourgCH-1700 Switzerland National Institute of Environmental Health Albert Flórián út 2-6 Budapest1097 Hungary Institute of Allergology Charité Hindenburgdamm 30 Berlin12203 Germany Institute of Animal Science and Wildlife Management Faculty of Agriculture University of Szeged Andrássy út 15 Hódmezővásárhely6800 Hungary Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique 11 chemin de la Creuzille Le Plat du Pin Brussieu696905 France Laboratory of Hygiene and Aerobiology Department of Medicine and Surgery University of Parma U.O. Medicina Interna di Continuità Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma Via Gramsci 14 Parma43126 Italy Hygiene and Public Health Service via Spagliardi 19 Parabiago Milan20015 Italy BioSensе Institute Research Institute for Information Technologies in Biosystems University of Novi Sad Dr

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant’s reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating annual total pollen concentrations than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modeled maps using altitude correction and phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://***/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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