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The Impact of Alternative Data on Default Probability: Analyzing the Italian E-commerce Sector with NLP and Network Structures

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Operations Research Forum 2025年第2期6卷 1-30页

作者： Bernhardt, Brian Daniel Marciano, Chiara Guarracino, Mario Rosario Department of Economics and Law University of Cassino and Southern Lazio Cassino Italy Indatis s.r.l. Cassino Italy Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis Higher School of Economics Nizhny Novgorod Russian Federation

E-commerce is a key sector in the Italian economy, with online companies becoming some of the largest and most profitable businesses. However, this growth comes with increased risk exposure. This study aims to investigate the relationship between alternative data (contextual factors, Text-Driven Data Enrichment) and the probability of default for Italian e-commerce companies. To date, no studies have examined how these alternative data affect the default probability within this sector. To address this gap, the ongoing research analyzes a dataset of Italian companies, focusing on sector-specific indicators. In the Italian e-commerce market, companies are identified by a unique code that indicates the sales channel but not the types of products marketed. To overcome this limitation, a natural language processing (NLP) model is applied to the es of these companies, allowing us to identify the types of goods or services sold by each company. These enriched data provide a more comprehensive understanding and serve as the foundation for a classification model that uses standard interpretable algorithms for default prediction. Additionally, network structures identified by companies’ similarities are used to extract new insights, which can support decision-making processes for stakeholders at different levels of the supply chain. The model’s performance is evaluated in various scenarios, comparing results with and without the inclusion of alternative data. Key performance metrics are analyzed to demonstrate how integrating alternative data enhances default prediction models. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.

关键词： Alternative data E-commerce sector Probability of default Supervised learning Text embedding

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König graphs for 4-paths 1

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3rd International Conference on Network analysis, Net 2013

作者： Mokeev, Dmitry Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis National Research University Higher School of Economics 136 Rodionova Str N. Novgorod Russia

We give characterization of the graphs, whose each induced subgraph has the property: the maximum number of induced 4-paths is equal to the minimum cardinality of the set of vertices such as every induced 4-path conta... 详细信息

ISBN: (数字)9783319097589

ISBN: (纸本)9783319097572

关键词： Computers

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Statistical analysis of Graph Structures in Random Variable networks 1

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丛书名： SpringerBriefs in Optimization

2020年

作者： V. A. Kalyagin A. P. Koldanov P. A. Koldanov P. M. Pardalos

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Models, algorithms and technologies for Network analysis 1

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丛书名： Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics

1000年

作者： Mikhail V. Batsyn Valery A. Kalyagin Panos M. Pardalos

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Multi-Class Classification Using Quantum Kernel Methods

Multi-Class Classification Using Quantum Kernel Methods

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2023 International Russian Smart Industry Conference, SmartIndustryCon 2023

作者： Mokhles, Mostafa Makarov, Ilya National Research University Higher School of Economics Faculty of Computer Science Moscow Russia Moscow Russia HSE University Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis Nizhny Novgorod Russia

ISBN: (纸本)9781665464291

Quantum machine learning has recently attracted attention in various research fields. One of the most promising areas are kernel methods in quantum computers as they leverage the quantum computers advantage over classical kernels. The embedding of data in Hilbert space of quantum computers is called Quantum Embedding Kernels (QEKs). Many previous researches have explored the idea of using quantum embedding kernels for binary classification problems, demonstrating the advantage of quantum computing. This research is concerned with using these methods for multi-class classification problem and benchmark the results against well-known datasets such as IRIS and MNIST. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： Embeddings

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Initial sorting of vertices in the maximum clique problem reviewed 1

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8th International Conference on Learning and Intelligent OptimizatioN, LION 2014

作者： San Segundo, Pablo Lopez, Alvaro Batsyn, Mikhail Jose Gutiérrez Abascal 2 28006 Madrid Spain Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis National Research University Higher School of Economics 136 Rodionova Nizhny Novgorod Russia

ISBN: (数字)9783319095844

ISBN: (纸本)9783319095837

In recent years there have been a number of important improvements in exact color-based maximum clique solvers, which have considerably enhanced their performance. Initial vertex ordering is one strategy known to have a significant impact on the size of the search tree. Typically, a degenerate sorting by minimum degree is used;literature also reports different tiebreaking strategies. A systematic study of the impact of initial sorting in the light of new cutting-edge ideas (e.g. recoloring [8], selective coloring [13], ILS initial lower bound computation [15, 16] or MaxSAT-based pruning [14]) is, however, lacking. This paper presents a new initial sorting procedure and relates performance to the new mentioned variants implemented in leading solver BBMC [9, 10]. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.

关键词： Problem solving

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Market graph construction using the performance measure of similarity 1

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3rd International Conference on Network analysis, Net 2013

作者： Glotov, Andrey A. Kalyagin, Valery A. Vizgunov, Arsenii N. Pardalos, Panos M. National Research University Higher School of Economics 25/12 Bolshaja Pecherskaja Ulitsa Nizhny Novgorod603155 Russia Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics National Research University Higher School of Economics Nizhny Novgorod603155 Russia Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Center for Applied Optimization University of Florida GainesvilleFL32608 United States Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis National Research University Higher School of Economics Nizhny Novgorod603155 Russia

ISBN: (数字)9783319097589

ISBN: (纸本)9783319097572

The paper presents the description of the modification of the stock market graph model. Authors suggest a new similarity measure between stocks. Following the market graph model a vertex represents a stock. For each pair of stocks we calculate a number of weeks when both stocks were profitable simultaneously. This number is used as a weight of edge between two vertices. The structural properties of the graph constructed by means of the suggested measure can be used to evaluate potential profitability, performance of the stock market. The model was applied to Russian stock market and to US stock market for the time period from 2001 to 2011. The main result of the analysis is the description of the peculiarity of the Russian stock market comparing with the well-developed US stock market and observation that constructed US stock market graph follows the power law model. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

关键词： Financial markets

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Heuristic for a Real-life Truck and Trailer Routing Problem

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Procedia Computer Science 2014年 31卷 778-792页

作者： Mikhail Batsyn Alexander Ponomarenko Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis National Research University Higher School of Economics 136 Rodionova str. Nizhny Novgorod 603093

In this paper we suggest a multi-start greedy heuristic for a real-life truck and trailer routing problem. The considered problem is a site dependent heterogeneous fleet truck and trailer routing problem with soft and hard time windows and split deliveries. This problem arises in delivering goods from a warehouse to stores of a big retail company. There are about 400 stores and 100 vehicles for one warehouse. Our heuristic is based on sequential greedy insertion of a customer to a route with further improvement of the solution. The computational experiments are performed for real-life data. We also provide a mixed integer linear programming formulation for precise and clear description of the problem.

关键词： real-life problem truck and trailer routing problem multi-start heuristic greedy insertion

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Modular contractions and their application

Modular contractions and their application

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作者： Chistyakov, Vyacheslav V. Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis National Research University Higher School of Economics Bol'shaya Pechërskaya Street 25/12 Nizhny Novgorod Russian Federation 603155 Russia

ISBN: (纸本)9781461455738

The notion of a metric modular on an arbitrary set and the corresponding modular spaces, generalizing classical modulars over linear spaces and Orlicz spaces, were recently introduced and studied by the author [Chistyakov: Dokl. Math. 73(1):32-35, 2006 and Nonlinear Anal. 72(1):1-30, 2010]. In this chapter we present yet one more application of the metric modulars theory to the existence of fixed points of modular contractive maps in modular metric spaces. These are related to contracting generalized average velocities rather than metric distances, and the successive approximations of fixed points converge to the fixed points in the modular sense, which is weaker than the metric convergence. We prove the existence of solutions to a Carathéodory-type differential equation with the right-hand side from the Orlicz space. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013.

关键词： Differential equations

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On the multi-stage shortest path problem under distributional uncertainty

arXiv

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Ketkov, Sergey S. Laboratory of Algorithms and Technologies for Networks Analysis HSE University Rodionova st. 136 Nizhny Novgorod603093 Russia

In this paper we consider an ambiguity-averse multi-stage network game between a user and an attacker. The arc costs are assumed to be random variables that satisfy prescribed first-order moment constraints for some subsets of arcs and individual probability constraints for some particular arcs. The user aims at minimizing its cumulative expected loss by traversing between two fixed nodes in the network, while the attacker’s objective is to maximize the user’s expected loss by selecting a distribution of arc costs from the family of admissible distributions. In contrast to most of the related studies, both the user and the attacker can dynamically adjust their decisions at particular nodes of the user’s path. By observing the user’s decisions, the attacker may reveal some additional distributional information associated with the arcs emanated from the current user’s position. It is shown that the resulting multi-stage distributionally robust shortest path problem (DRSPP) admits a linear mixed-integer programming reformulation (MIP). In particular, we distinguish between acyclic and general graphs by introducing different forms of non-anticipativity constraints. Finally, we perform a numerical study, where the quality of adaptive decisions and computational tractability of the proposed MIP reformulation are explored with respect to several classes of synthetic network instances. © 2022, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： Graph theory

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