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Preface to the Special Issue on Carbon Neutrality: Important Roles of Renewable Energies, Carbon Sinks, NETs, and non-CO_(2) GHGs

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第8期39卷 1207-1208页

作者： Junji CAO Ning ZENG Yi LIU Bengang LI Pengfei HAN Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary CenterUniversity of MarylandCollege Park 20742MarylandUSA State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Carbon Neutrality Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science Laboratory for Earth Surface ProcessesCollege of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

The year 2020 witnessed milestone commitments to carbon neutrality with the EU,China,USA,Japan,South Korea,Canada,and South Africa,each pledging to reach net-zero carbon *** that have adopted or have considered net-zero targets now represent 63%of the total contributions to global greenhouse gas(GHG)*** the efforts of all parties,the 26th Conference of the Parties(COP26)achieved a package of outcomes in the Glasgow Climate ***,a breakthrough consensus was reached on reducing coal,controlling methane,and halting deforestation(Wang et al.,2022,Page 1209).To achieve net-zero carbon,we need to take action to implement the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact Since the global temperature slowdown of the nationally determined contributions(NDC)scenario is only 0.6°C,all countries need to pursue stricter carbon reduction policies for a more sustainable world.(Fu et al,2022,Page 1209).

关键词： breakthrough neutral methane

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CAS-ESM2.0 Dataset for the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 989-1000页

作者： Jiangbo JIN Duoying JI Xiao DONG Kece FEI Run GUO Juanxiong HE Yi YU Zhaoyang CHAI He ZHANG Dongling ZHANG Kangjun CHEN Qingcun ZENG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesHangzhou 310012China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology College of Global Change and Earth System ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Understanding the response of the earth system to varying concentrations of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))is critical for projecting possible future climate change and for providing insight into mitigation and adaptation strategies in the near *** this study,we generate a dataset by conducting an experiment involving carbon dioxide removal(CDR)—a potential way to suppress global warming—using the Chinese Academy of Sciences earth system Model version 2.0(CASESM2.0).A preliminary evaluation is *** model is integrated from 200–340 years as a 1%yr^(−1) CO_(2) concentration increase experiment,and then to~478 years as a carbon dioxide removal experiment until CO_(2) returns to its original ***,another 80 years is integrated in which CO_(2) is kept *** in the 2-m temperature,precipitation,sea surface temperature,ocean temperature,Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC),and sea surface height are all *** the ramp-up period,the global mean 2-m temperature and precipitation both increase while the AMOC *** of all the above variables change in the opposite direction in the ramp-down period,with a delayed peak relative to the CO_(2) *** CO_(2) returns to its original value,the global mean 2-m temperature is still~1 K higher than in the original state,and precipitation is~0.07 mm d^(–1) *** the end of the simulation,there is a~0.5°C increase in ocean temperature and a 1 Sv weakening of the *** model simulation produces similar results to those of comparable experiments previously reported in the literature.

关键词： CAS-ESM2.0 CDRMIP carbon dioxide removal AMOC temperature precipitation sea surface height

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The Super-large Ensemble Experiments of CAS FGOALS-g3

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1746-1765,I0021-I0025页

作者： Pengfei LIN Bowen ZHAO Jilin WEI Hailong LIU Wenxia ZHANG Xiaolong CHEN Jie JIANG Mengrong DING Wenmin MAN Jinrong JIANG Xu ZHANG Yuewen DING Wenrong BAI Chenyang JIN Zipeng YU Yiwen LI Weipeng ZHENG Tianjun ZHOU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Computer Network Information Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation(ALPHA) State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemResources and Environment(TPESRE)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100864China Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental ScienceLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

A super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members has been produced by the fully coupled model FGOALS-g3 developed by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of *** is the first dataset of large ensemble simulations with a climate system model developed by a Chinese modeling *** simulation has the largest realizations up to now worldwide in terms of single-model initial-condition large *** member includes a historical experiment(1850-2014)and an experiment(2015-99)under the very high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario(SSP5-8.5).The dataset includes monthly and daily temperature,precipitation,and other variables,requiring storage of 275 ***,the surface air temperature(SAT)and land precipitation simulated by the FGOALS-g3 super-large ensemble have been validated and *** ensemble can capture the response of SAT and land precipitation to external forcings well,and the internal variabilities can be *** availability of more than 100 realizations will help researchers to study rare events and improve the understanding of the impact of internal variability on forced climate changes.

关键词： large ensemble forced response internal variability climate change

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Predictability of Ensemble Forecasting Estimated Using the Kullback–Leibler Divergence in the Lorenz Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第8期36卷 837-846页

作者： Ruiqiang DING Baojia LIU Bin GU Jianping LI Xuan LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Institute of Space Weather School of Math and StatisticsNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Physics and Optoelectronic Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

A new method to quantify the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting is presented using the Kullback–Leibler(KL)divergence(also called the relative entropy), which provides a measure of the difference between the probability distributions of ensemble forecasts and local reference(true) states. The KL divergence is applicable to a non-normal distribution of ensemble forecasts, which is a substantial improvement over the previous method using the ensemble spread. An example from the three-variable Lorenz model illustrates the effectiveness of the KL divergence, which can effectively quantify the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting. On this basis, the KL divergence is used to investigate the dependence of the predictability limit of ensemble forecasting on the initial states and the magnitude of initial errors. The local predictability limit of ensemble forecasting varies considerably with the initial states, as well as with the magnitude of initial errors. Further research is needed to examine the real-world applications of the KL divergence in measuring the predictability of ensemble weather forecasts.

关键词： predictability ensemble forecasting Kullback–Leibler divergence

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RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 395-420页

作者： HUANG Rong-hui HUANGFU Jing-liang WU Liang FENG Tao CHEN Guang-hua Center for Monsoon System Research (CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies Institute for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies(by CMSR,IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons(TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid-and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.

关键词： monsoon trough interannual variability interdecadal variability tropical cyclone typhoon

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Variation in the permafrost active layer over the Tibetan Plateau during 1980–2020

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 34-39页

作者： Jinglong Huang Chaofan Li Binghao Jia Chujie Gao Ruichao Li College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjingChina Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

The active layer,acting as an intermediary of water and heat exchange between permafrost and atmosphere,greatly influences biogeochemical cycles in permafrost areas and is notably sensitive to climate *** the Chinese Meteorological Forcing Dataset to drive the Community Land Model,version 5.0,this study simulates the spatial and temporal characteristics of active layer thickness(ALT)on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)from 1980 to *** show that the ALT,primarily observed in the central and western parts of the TP where there are insufficient station observations,exhibits significant interdecadal changes after *** average thickness on the TP decreases from 2.54 m during 1980–1999 to 2.28 m during 2000–*** change is mainly observed in the western permafrost region,displaying a sharp regional inconsistency compared to the eastern region.A persistent increasing trend of ALT is found in the eastern permafrost region,rather than an interdecadal *** aforementioned changes in ALT are closely tied to the variations in the surrounding atmospheric environment,particularly air ***,the area of the active layer on the TP displays a profound interdecadal change around 2000,arising from the permafrost thawing and *** consistently decreases before 2000 but barely changes after *** regional variation in the permafrost active layer over the TP revealed in this study indicates a complex response of the contemporary climate under global warming.

关键词： Active layer thickness Permafrost Tibetan plateau Climatological characteristics

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Rainfall connection between southwestern Tibetan Plateau and Indian subcontinent

Rainfall connection between southwestern Tibetan Plateau and...

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第一届中国大地测量和地球物理学学术大会

作者： Wenhao Dong Yanluan Lin Yuanyu Xie Bin Wang Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center of Earth System Sciences Tsinghua University Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Despite its importance for glacier mass balance and water budget (Tao et al.1991; Yao et al.2012),future precipitation and hydrological cycle change over the Tibetan Plateau remains *** over Tibet Plateau (TP) is complex and homogeneous in the spatial *** to analyze its probable control systems have been *** concept is that precipitation over TP is mainly regulated by tropical monsoon ***,using multiple precipitation datasets and climate model simulations,summer (June to September) precipitation over the TP and Indian subcontinent is *** the first time,we note a close link of rainfall variability over southwestern Tibetan Plateau (SWTP) and central-eastern *** rainfall came across the mountain area is a possible driver of past and future rainfall variability over ***,the study implies that future rainfall change in SWTP will follow that over the Indian continent and reinforces our confidence on proj ected precipitation change over SWTP.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Summer rainfall Convection

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application of the Conditional Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent to Second-Kind Predictability

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1769-1786页

作者： Ming ZHANG Ruiqiang DING Quanjia ZHONG Jianping LI Deyu LU State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE)/Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Department of Ocean Science Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(DOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ministry of Education/Academy of the Future Ocean/Center for Ocean Carbon NeutralityOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)*** effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz *** results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external *** this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable *** spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE *** similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate *** addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was *** RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability *** instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific ***,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.

关键词： conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent second-kind predictability coupled Lorenz model ENSO

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Interdecadal change in the lagged relationship between the Victoria mode and ENSO

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第4期12卷 294-301页

作者： XIE Wei FAN Guangzhou DING Ruiqiang LI Jianping LI Baosheng QIN Jianhuang ZHOU Xuejing School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina Institute of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghaiChina

This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–*** surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC *** interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c ***?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.

关键词： Victoria mode ENSO interdecadal change North Pacific Oscillation

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Decadal changes of the wintertime tropical tropospheric temperature and their influences on the extratropical climate

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Science Bulletin 2016年第9期61卷 737-744页

作者：张嘉莹王林杨崧陈文皇甫静亮 Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Monsoon System Research State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University

A decadal change of the tropical tropospheric temperature （TT） was identified to occur in the winter of 1997. Compared with that in the former period （1979-1996）, the wintertime TT was significantly high over most of the tropical regions except over the tropical eastern Pacific during the latter period （1997-2014） because the sea surface temperature （SST） exhibited a decadal La Nifia-like pattern after 1997. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical western Pacific facilitated enhanced precipitation and increased heat release to the tropical atmosphere, leading to a warmer tropical tropo- sphere in the latter period. In addition to the mean TT values, the interannual variability of the tropical TT changed in 1997. The leading mode of the tropical TT explained 72.9 % of the total variance in the former period. It led to significant warming over midlatitude North America via a Pacific-North America （PNA）-like wave train and off the coast of East Asia via an anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone around the Philippines. The mode remained a similar pattern but explained 85.4 % of the total variance in the latter period, and its location was slightly westward-shifted compared with that in the former period. As a result, the structure of the PNA-like wave train changed, leading to anomalous warming over northwestern North America and enhanced precipitation over the southern North America. Meanwhile, the anomalous lower- tropospheric anticyclone around the Philippines shifted westward, leading to increased precipitation and regional warming over East Asia. The decadal changes of the leading mode of the tropical TT and its influences on the extratropical climate can be attributed to the changes of the tropical SST variability.

关键词： Tropospheric temperature Sea surfacetemperature Decadal shift Interannual variabilityEast Asia North America

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