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SSRN 2025年

作者： Wang, Peng Ju, Yiwen Yao, Yanbin Li, Yong Xiao, Lei Wang, Wei Gao, Jian Chen, Renzhe Guan, Peiyun Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China School of Energy Resources China University of Geosciences Beijing100083 China State Key Laboratory Coal Resources and Safe Mining China University of Mining and Technology Beijing100049 China

The porosity characteristics of tectonically deformed shale are generally considered to be primarily governed by deformation intensity, often overlooking the influence of thermal evolution. This study examines the effects and mechanisms of thermal evolution on the pore structure of deformed shale from the Huaibei mining area in the southern North China Craton. Utilizing core sample observations, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, high-pressure mercury intrusion, low-temperature nitrogen adsorption, carbon dioxide adsorption, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, we found that the pore structure predominantly consists of micropores and transitional pores, with a limited presence of mesopores and macropores, as well as extensive microfractures. The results indicate that pore characteristics are significantly influenced by thermal evolution;as thermal maturation progresses, the total porosity, micropore count, and transitional pore count increase, leading to an enlarged specific surface area, more complex pore architecture, and enhanced connectivity. This enhancement arises from the thermal degradation of macromolecular structures in shale, where hydrocarbon and inorganic gas exsolution generates organic matter-derived pores, primarily micropores, while macromolecular shrinkage creates transitional pores smaller than 20 nm. Importantly, tectonic deformation occurs prior to the peak of hydrocarbon generation, allowing for the continued formation and retention of pores after hydrocarbon production. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

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Single Oil Palm Tree Detection and Its Potential Expansion in Honduras

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IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 2025年 63卷

作者： Zhang, Hang Cui, Yaoping Yu, Le Enrique Corrales Andino, Rafael Zhang, Sen Cui, Kailong Zhao, Tianwei Liang, Han Henan University College of Geographical Sciences Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering Zhengzhou450046 China Henan University Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions Ministry of Education Kaifeng475004 China Tsinghua University Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System Science Beijing100084 China Tegucigalpa11101 Honduras International Institute for Earth System Sciences Nanjing University Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing210023 China

Honduras is among the ten largest palm oil producers in the world. Accurately detecting the current plantation status and oil palm distribution is crucial to optimize the planting layout. However, current information on single oil palm trees in Honduras is scarce. Here, we used submeter-resolution RGB satellite images in 2022 to detect the spatial distribution and single oil palm tree in Honduras with the four-direction gradient difference (FGD), single-tree feature extraction, and double-ring detection methods. In the accuracy validation zones, the recall, precision, and F1-score metrics for the spatial distribution of oil palm were 86.50%, 86.57%, and 86.53%, respectively;counting accuracy for single oil palm trees was 86.75%;and localization accuracy was approximately 6 m. We estimated 0.25 million hectares (ha) of oil palm plantation area in Honduras, corresponding to 28.27 million trees and an average density of 113 trees/ha. Furthermore, we categorized planted land into highly or moderately suitable zones for future expansion. Among the 0.25 million ha of potentially available land, the highly and moderately suitable zones represented 10 501 and 242 120 ha, respectively, with the potential to carry approximately 28.55 million oil palms. For future oil palm expansion, priority should be given to highly suitable zones. This study not only characterized the distribution and single oil palm properties in Honduras but also suggested potentially suitable zones for future plantation expansion, thereby providing important methodological references and data support to assess the impact of oil palm planting on the ecological environment and socioeconomic aspects at the country scale. © 1980-2012 IEEE.

关键词： Satellite imagery

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Soil microbial biomass P status affecting P runoff loss from paddy fields under different agricultural practices

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Science of the Total Environment 2025年 967卷 178828页

作者： Liao, Chujie Wang, Yi Wang, Meihui Li, Yong Wu, Jinshui Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf Nanning Normal University Ministry of Education Nanning530001 China College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering Ludong University Yantai264025 China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100029 China Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Region and Changsha Research Station for Agricultural & Environmental Monitoring Institute of Subtropical Agriculture Chinese Academy of Sciences Changsha410125 China

Phosphorus (P) runoff loss in agroecosystems is known to be soil-dependent. While the physicochemical processes of P runoff have been extensively studied, there is a lack of research on its microbial effects. This study investigated variations in P runoff loss, soil P fractions, and microbial biomass (MB) across 11 different agricultural treatments in a long-term positioning experiment of double-cropping rice cultivation. Results revealed a P-deficient state in the paddy soil, with an average total soil P content (TSP) of 0.55 g kg−1 and Olsen-P of 9.17 mg kg−1 across all treatments. Among the treatments, application of pig manure equivalent to 50 % conventional nitrogen resulted in the highest soil MB, soil P fractions, and flow-weighted dissolved-P (DP_wc) and total-P (TP_wc) concentrations in surface runoff water. Conversely, the treatment without P fertilizer application showed the lowest values. While long-term agricultural practices profoundly affected the characteristics of soil MB, soil P status, and P runoff loss, a common pattern emerged across all treatments. Specifically, all treatments exhibited wider ranges of soil microbial carbon (C):P ratio (MBC:P) (48.49–175.95) and soil microbial nitrogen (N):P ratio (MBN:P) (3.83–12.56) compared to soil microbial C:N ratio (MBC:N) (9.55–20.12). Additionally, soil P fractions decreased in the order of TSP > Citrate-P > Olsen-P > Enzyme-P, and the average DP_wc (0.12 mg L−1) accounted for approximately one-fourth of the average TP_wc (0.48 mg L−1), suggesting a critical and similar mechanism for paddy soil P runoff loss. The addition of exogenous C and P created favorable conditions for microbial growth, leading to increased MBP and subsequently elevated soil P contents, particularly Olsen-P. However, the structural equation model (SEM) analysis revealed that the mediation effect of MBP and MBN:P weakened the relationships between agronomic practices and P runoff losses, with the path coefficient decreasing from 0.

关键词： Exogenous P addition Flow-weighted concentrations MBP P-poor agroecosystem Soil P fractions

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Predicting on the Extreme Precipitation in East and Southeast Asia during Summer 2022 from the Antecedent Soil Temperature Anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Climate 2025年第9期38卷 2109-2128页

作者： Kong, Xianghui Wang, Aihui Xue, Yongkang Wei, Nan Zhang, He Hu, Qin He, Juanxiong Bi, Xunqiang Chen, Yue Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan Province Chengdu China University of California Los AngelesCA United States School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan Province Chengdu China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Super Computer Center in Tianjin Tianjin China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

It has demonstrated that May land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can serve as a predictor of June precipitation in downstream *** summer 2022, there was heavy precipitation (severe drought) in June (August) over southern China, coinciding with high May (July) LST/SUBT anomalies in *** the framework of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P), this study explores the causality between 2022 May (July) TP LST/SUBT and June (August) precipitation using an ensemble of land–atmosphere coupled model *** show that model prediction with imposed strongly positive May TP LST/SUBT (i.e., a triple) anomaly could produce 67% (46%) of June precipitation anomalies in South (northeast) China, while sea surface temperature (SST) effects account for 5% (51%).The atmosphere condensation heating and surface sensible heating due to TP LST/SUBT anomaly induce anomalous South Asian high, which moves eastward along with the Rossby ***, the above process enhances upward motion, convective instability, and water vapor transport, eventually be favorable for rainfall formation in South China and northeast *** Southeast Asia, it makes a downward movement, decrease in atmospheric water vapor, and unfavorable to the occurrence of ***, July TP LST/SUBT contributes to the prediction skill for August record-breaking drought in southern *** to SST effects, it is found that TP LST/SUBT effects significantly enhance the prediction skill for downstream region, suggesting that the TP land contributes an important source for subseasonal climate prediction. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Rivers

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Unraveling the mystery of tropical monsoon long-term prediction

arXiv

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arXiv 2025年

作者： Ran, Guanghao Meng, Jun Fan, Jingfang Department of Physics Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100029 China School of Systems Science Institute of Non-equilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam14412 Germany

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional dynamics, global climate drivers, and large-scale teleconnections. Here, we introduce a unified network-based framework for predicting monsoon precipitation across diverse tropical regions. By leveraging global 2-meter air temperature fields, this approach captures large-scale climate teleconnections, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Rossby waves, enabling accurate forecasts for four key monsoon systems: the South American, East Asian, African, and Indian monsoons. Our framework achieves remarkable forecasting accuracy with lead times of 4–10 months, outperforming traditional systems such as SEAS5 and CFSv2. Beyond its predictive capabilities, the framework offers flexibility for application to other regions and climate phenomena, advancing our understanding of global climate dynamics. These findings have far-reaching implications for disaster preparedness, resource management, and sustainable development. Copyright © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Atmospheric thermodynamics

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年代际预测揭示高山亚洲未来十年加速变暖（英文）

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Science Bulletin 2025年第3期 419-428页

作者：胡帅周天军吴波 Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

High-Mountain Asia (HMA) is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar regions. HMA feeds ten great rivers, ultimately supporting more than 2 billion people. However, the threat of accelerated glacier melt, which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s, threatens water resources in the surrounding countries. Accurate predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate variability. Here, based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments, we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance, and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction skill. Real-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025–2032, where the surface warming will increase by 0.98°C (0.67 to 1.33°C; 5%to 95%range) relative to the reference period1991–2020, which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during 2016–2023. The decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes, which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin waves. Accelerated warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4%. This change poses unprecedented challenges, including potential water scarcity,ecosystem disruption, and increased risk of natural disasters, to HMA and surrounding regions.

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Seismic Activity Characteristics of the Sichuan–Yunnan Region Revealed by Big Data Fusion

SSRN

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SSRN 2025年

作者： He, Pei Zhang, Huai Shi, Yaolin College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Beijing100049 China

Accurate characterization of regional seismic activity is fundamental to seismology and crucial for assessing earthquake hazards. Seismicity closely relates to multiple factors, including tectonic loading, fault geometry and distribution, crustal and mantle structures, local topography, physical properties, and global environmental changes. Increasingly active human influences, such as reservoir impoundment, enhanced geothermal systems, and shale gas extraction, further complicate these relationships. Establishing an integrated theoretical and methodological framework through big data fusion to analyze these natural and anthropogenic factors represents a frontier challenge in contemporary seismology and geodynamics. This study introduces three novel big data visualization methods for earthquake catalogs, efficiently capturing the complex relationships among magnitude, frequency, seismic origin time, and epicentral location. Utilizing these methods with comprehensive heterogeneous geophysical datasets from the Sichuan–Yunnan region—including over 420,000 earthquake records, 160 three-dimensional active fault datasets, high-resolution topography, Moho depth, community velocity models (CVM), and crustal deformation data—the seismic characteristics of the region over the past 50 years were systematically analyzed. Results indicate that: (1) High seismic activity and hazard areas in the Sichuan–Yunnan region primarily concentrate near deep major faults, block boundaries, and brittle transition zones with distinct low- and high-velocity anomalies, showing clear spatial banding, temporal clustering, and cyclicity. (2) Fault segments such as Longmenshan, Lijiang–Xiaojinhe, and Nujiang–Irawaddy likely facilitates internal material exchange within the Tibetan Plateau. Significant crustal thickening in their northwestern sections corresponds with lower seismicity. (3) Crustal strain varies notably along the Xianshuihe–Anninghe–Zemuhai–Xiaojiang and Longmenshan fault zones, whi

关键词： Geodynamics

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Net surface energy flux over the globe and Asian monsoon region in CMIP6 high-resolution models

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Climate Dynamics 2025年第5期63卷 1-23页

作者： Liao, Xiaoqing Li, Jiandong Liu, Chunlei Allan, Richard P. Liu, Yimin Cao, Ning Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang China Key Laboratory of Climate Resources and Environment in Continental Shelf Sea and Deep Sea of Department of Education of Guangdong Province Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang China Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB United Kingdom National Centre for Earth Observation Reading United Kingdom

The net surface energy flux (Fs) is critical to the earth’s energy budget and surface processes, but there are still simulation uncertainties at global and regional scales. This study investigates simulated Fs biases... 详细信息

The net surface energy flux (F_s) is critical to the earth’s energy budget and surface processes, but there are still simulation uncertainties at global and regional scales. This study investigates simulated F_s biases and sources over the Asian monsoon region (AMR) in CMIP6 HighResMIP atmospheric models. The global state is investigated first to check if there is any systematic model bias which can affect the AMR as well. In the AMR, the F_s is predominantly upward during winter and downward during summer owing to the seasonal variation in SW_s and THF. 95% of the winter F_s bias over the AMR comes from THF, primarily because of the latent heat flux bias. SW_s and THF contribute 40–90% and 70–90%, respectively, to the summer F_s bias. The systematic biases of SW_s and LW_s can be attributed to biases in circulation patterns and cloud cover, whereas biases in THF are influenced primarily by near-surface processes. The high-resolution models perform well in terms of F_s, THF, and the circulation (wind speed at 850 hPa and 10 m) in the low-level troposphere, particularly in winter. The winter multimodel mean error is reduced by 21.5–63.6% in F_s and 25.5–76.7% in THF across the three AMR subregions. Seven out of the nine high-resolution models have higher skill scores for winter F_s and THF than their low-resolution counterparts do in South Asia (SA), with corresponding model numbers of 8 (F_s) and 7 (THF) in East Asia (EA) and the western North Pacific (WNP). This study reveals the advantages of increased horizonal resolution in F_s simulations. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.

关键词： Asian monsoon region CMIP6 Model Net surface heat flux

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Nodular networks in hydrated polyamide desalination membranes enhance water transport

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Science Advances 2025年第18期11卷 eadt3324页

作者： Li, Danyang Liu, Wenkai Wang, Xiaomao Lin, Weichen Zhai, Juan Fan, Hanqing Xiao, Kang Wang, Kunpeng Li, Yanjie Jin, Yan Fang, Jun Shen, Yuexiao Elimelech, Menachem Huang, Xia State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability School of Environment Tsinghua University Beijing100084 China Department of Civil Environmental and Construction Engineering Texas Tech University LubbockTX79409 United States Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Rice University HoustonTX77005 United States Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China School of Life Sciences Tsinghua University Beijing100084 China Vontron Technology Co. Ltd. Guiyang550014 China Research and Application Center for Membrane Technology School of Environment Tsinghua University Beijing100084 China

For nearly half a century, thin-film composite reverse osmosis membranes have served as key separation materials for desalination. However, the precise structure of their polyamide selective layer under hydrated conditions and its relationship to membrane transport remain poorly understood. Using cryo–electron tomography, we successfully reconstructed the three-dimensional structure of six commercial polyamide membranes under hydrated conditions, revealing a fully swollen nodular network. The highly heterogeneous nodules, measuring 17.2 ± 2.8 nanometer in thickness, were directly connected to the pores of the underlying polysulfone substrate. The nodules occupied most of the surface area compared to the 75.9 ± 26.8-nanometer-thick dense layer of the polyamide film. Key structural parameters of the nodules, including surface area index and wall thickness, were correlated with the water permeance of an additional 16 polyamide membranes, validating the major role of these nodules in water transport. This study enhances our understanding of the heterogeneous structure of desalination membranes and its role in membrane transport. Copyright © 2025 The Authors, some rights reserved

关键词： Desalination

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Reducing the biases in shortwave cloud radiative forcing in tropical and subtropical regions from the perspective of boundary layer processes

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Science China earth Sciences 2016年第7期59卷 1427-1439页

作者： SUN Wen Qi LI Li Juan WANG Bin State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center of Earth System Science Tsinghua University

Biases in shortwave cloud radiative forcing(SWCF), which cause overestimates in tropical regions and underestimates in subtropical marine stratocumulus regions, are common in many climate models. Here, two boundary layer processes are investigated in the atmospheric model GAMIL2, entrainment at the top of the boundary layer and longwave radiative cooling at the top of stratocumulus clouds, in order to reduce biases and reveal the mechanisms underlying these processes. Our results show that including the entrainment process in the model can reduce negative SWCF biases in most tropical regions but increases positive SWCF biases in subtropical marine stratocumulus regions. This occurs because entrainment reduces the low-level cloud fraction and its cloud liquid water content by suppressing the vertical turbulent diffusion in the boundary layer and decreasing the relative humidity when warm and dry free atmosphere is entrained in the boundary layer. Longwave radiative cooling at the top of stratocumulus clouds can enhance turbulent diffusion within the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer. When combined with the entrainment process, longwave radiative cooling reduces the positive SWCF biases in subtropical marine stratocumulus regions that are observed using the entrainment process alone. The incorporation of these two boundary layer processes improves the simulated SWCF in tropical and subtropical regions in GAMIL2.

关键词： SWCF GAMIL2 Boundary layer Entrainment Stratocumulus

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