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Using a skillful statistical model to predict September sea ice covering Arctic shipping routes

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2020年第5期39卷 11-25页

作者： Sha Li Muyin Wang Wenyu Huang Shiming Xu Bin Wang Yuqi Bai Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of WashingtonSeattle WA98195USA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattle WA98115USA State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration,both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the ***,a novel data-driven method,the causal effect networks algorithm,is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice *** whole study area was also divided into two parts:the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal *** forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE)and southern region(SSIE)at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65%and 79%of the variances,respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE)is limited at a lead time of 1 *** lead times of 1–4 months,local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection *** the lead time is more than 4 months,the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and *** suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.

关键词： regional sea ice Arctic shipping routes machine learning statistical model predictions

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Influence of the Preceding Austral Summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on the Amplitude of ENSO Decay

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第11期34卷 1358-1379页

作者： Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technologyqingdao 266237China Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technologychengdu 610103China

There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemi- sphere Annular Mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. This study shows that the austral summer （December-January-February; DJF） SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn （March-April-May; MAM）. The mechanisms associated with this SAM-ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows： The SAM is positively （negatively） correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle （high） latitudes. This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole （SOD）. The DJF SOD, caused by the DJF SAM, could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation, including trade winds, over the Nifio3.4 area. Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Nifio3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback, which eventually results in a cooling （warming） over the Nifio3.4 area followed by the positive （negative） DJF SAM.

关键词： Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode ENSO Southern Ocean Dipole

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Decreasing Trend in Global Land Monsoon Precipitation over the Past 50 Years Simulated by a Coupled Climate Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第2期27卷 285-292页

作者：李红梅周天军李超 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

The authors examine the effects of external forcing agents such as greenhouse gases （GHGs） and aerosols, as well as solar variability and ozone, on global land monsoon precipitation by using a coupled climate model HadGEM1, which was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Research. The results indicate that HadGEM1 performs well in simulating the observed decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years. This trend mainly occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and is significantly different from the trend of natural variability due to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions. The coherence between the simulation and the observations indicates that the specified external forcing agents, including GHGs and aerosols as well as solar variability and ozone, are important factors that have affected the decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation in the past 50 years.

关键词： monsoon precipitation decreasing trend coupled climate model external forcings

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Relationships between the Extratropical ENSO Precursor and Leading Modes of Atmospheric Variability in the Southern Hemisphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第3期34卷 360-370页

作者： Jianhuang QIN Ruiqiang DING Zhiwei WU Jianping LI Sen ZHAO Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal University

Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere （SH） might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole （SPQ）. The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode （SAM）, the first Pacific-South America （PSA1） mode, and the second Pacific-South America （PSA2） mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA.

关键词： Pacific-South America atmospheric variability ENSO South Pacific quadrapole

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Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP-ICE Case Study

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Journal of Advances in modeling earth systems 2025年第5期17卷

作者： Ling Zuo Lijuan Li William I. Gustafson Jr. Liping Luo Yimin Liu Bin Wang Yan Nie Feng Xie He Wang State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA College of Civil Aviation Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nanjing China China Resources Power Technology Research Wanchai Hong Kong Anhui Meteorological Observatory Hefei China

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved-cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale-aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components. The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch scheme was analyzed using the SPADE framework The KF scheme shows the scale adaptability across the gray zone during the wet period of TWP-ICE The scale-dependence of the KF scheme is strengthened by physics–dynamics interactions across the gray zone The resolution sensitivity of Convective Parameterization Schemes (CPS) is a critical and challenging issue in the earth's weather and climate system, particularly within the gray-zone scale (1–10 km). This paper analyzes the resolution sensitivity of the KF convection scheme and isolates the effects of other model components

关键词： resolution sensitivity Kain-Fritsch scheme gray zone physics-dynamics interactions

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Preliminary Evaluation of Cloud Fraction Simulations by GAMIL2 Using COSP

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第3期5卷 258-263页

作者： DONG Li LI Li-Juan HUANG Wen-Yu WANG Yong WANG Bin State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Dynamics （LASG） Institute of Atmos-pheric Physics （IAP） Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparisons Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) is adopted in the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL2) during CFMIP at Phase II to evaluate the model cloud fractions in a consistent way with satellite observations. The cloud simulation results embedded in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) control experiment are presented using three satellite simulators: International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar onboard the Cloud- Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). Overall, GAMIL2 can produce horizontal distributions of the low cloud fraction that are similar to the satellite observations, and its similarities to the observations on different levels are shown in Taylor diagrams. The discrepancies among satellite observations are also shown, which should be considered during evaluation.

关键词： COSP GAMIL cloud fraction satellite simu- lator

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Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第06期 1092-1109页

作者： Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM Kevin E.TRENBERTH James REAGAN Huai-Min ZHANG Andrea STORTO Karina VON SCHUCKMANN Yuying PAN Yujing ZHU Michael E.MANN Jiang ZHU Fan WANG Fujiang YU Ricardo LOCARNINI John FASULLO Boyin HUANG Garrett GRAHAM Xungang YIN Viktor GOURETSKI Fei ZHENG Yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Dakui WANG Licheng FENG Xiangzhou SONG Yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Gengxin CHEN Rongwang ZHANG Alexey MISHONOV Zhetao TAN Wangxu WEI Huifeng YUAN Guancheng LI Qiuping REN Lijuan CAO Yayang LU Juan DU Kewei LYU Albertus SULAIMAN Michael MAYER Huizan WANG Zhanhong MA Senliang BAO Henqian YAN Zenghong LIU Chunxue YANG Xu LIU Zeke HAUSFATHER Tanguy SZEKELY Flora GUES National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of St. Thomas School of Engineering NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research University of Auckland National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information National Research Council (CNR) Institute of Marine Sciences (ISMAR) Mercator Ocean International Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of Pennsylvania Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural Resources of China North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (NCICS) North Carolina State University Oceanographic Data Center Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Oceanography Hohai University National Marine Data and Information Service Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica eVulcanologia Sede di Bologna South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences ESSIC/CISESS-MD University of Maryland Computer Network Information Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Research Center Pearl River Valley and South China Sea Ecology and Environment Administration Ministry of Ecology and Environment National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Xiamen University Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Research Department European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Department of Meteorology and Geophysics University of Vienna College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense Technology State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural Resources Stripe Inc. South San Francisco Ocean Scope CELAD

Heating in the ocean has continued in 2024 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,despite the transition from an El Ni?o to neutral conditions. In 2024, both global sea surface temperature(SST) and upper2000 m ocean heat content(OHC) reached unprecedented highs in the historical record. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2024exceeded that of 2023 by 16 ± 8 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules, with a 95% confidence interval)(IAP/CAS data), which is confirmed by two other data products: 18 ± 7 ZJ(CIGAR-RT reanalysis data) and 40 ± 31 ZJ(Copernicus Marine data,updated to November 2024). The Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Ocean also experienced record-high OHC values in 2024. The global SST continued its record-high values from2023 into the first half of 2024, and declined slightly in the second half of 2024, resulting in an annual mean of 0.61°C ±0.02°C(IAP/CAS data) above the 1981–2010 baseline, slightly higher than the 2023 annual-mean value(by 0.07°C ±0.02°C for IAP/CAS, 0.05°C ± 0.02°C for NOAA/NCEI, and 0.06°C ± 0.11°C for Copernicus Marine). The record-high values of 2024 SST and OHC continue to indicate unabated trends of global heating.

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Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第7期35卷 881-895页

作者： Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Fred KUCHARSKI Ruiqiang DING Ting LIU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Earth System Physics Section Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Department of MeteorologyKing Abdulaziz University Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography

The variability in the Southern Ocean（SO） sea surface temperature（SST） has drawn increased attention due to its unique physical features; therefore, the temporal characteristics of the SO SST anomalies（SSTA） and their influence on extratropical atmospheric circulation are addressed in this study. Results from empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the principal mode of the SO SSTA exhibits a dipole-like structure, suggesting a negative correlation between the SSTA in the middle and high latitudes, which is referred to as the SO Dipole（SOD） in this study. The SOD features strong zonal symmetry, and could reflect more than 50% of total zonal-mean SSTA variability. We find that stronger（weaker） Subantarctic and Antarctic polar fronts are related to the positive（negative） phases of the SOD index, as well as the primary variability of the large-scale SO SSTA meridional gradient. During December–January–February, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet shift toward the Antarctic due to changes in the SSTA that could be associated with a positive phase of the SOD, and are also accompanied by a poleward shift of the subtropical jet. During June–July–August, in association with a positive SOD, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet are strengthened, accompanied by a strengthened subtropical jet. These seasonal differences are linked to the differences in the configuration of the polar jet and the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词： extratropical sea surface temperature air–sea interaction Southern Annular Mode

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earth system Model FGOALS-s2: Coupling a Dynamic Global Vegetation and Terrestrial Carbon Model with the Physical Climate system Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第6期30卷 1549-1559页

作者：王军包庆 Ning ZENG 刘屹岷吴国雄纪多颖 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College Park College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University

earth system Models （ESMs） are fundamental tools for understanding climate-carbon feedback. An ESM version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model （FGOALS） was recently developed within the IPCC AR5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） modeling framework, and we describe the development of this model through the coupling of a dynamic global vegetation and terrestrial carbon model with FGOALS-s2. The performance of the coupled model is evaluated as follows. The simulated global total terrestrial gross primary production （GPP） is 124.4 PgC yr-I and net pri- mary production （NPP） is 50.9 PgC yr-1. The entire terrestrial carbon pools contain about 2009.9 PgC, comprising 628.2 PgC and 1381.6 PgC in vegetation and soil pools, respectively. Spatially, in the tropics, the seasonal cycle of NPP and net ecosystem production （NEP） exhibits a dipole mode across the equator due to migration of the monsoon rainbelt, while the seasonal cycle is not so significant in Leaf Area Index （LAI）. In the subtropics, especially in the East Asian monsoon region, the seasonal cycle is obvious due to changes in temperature and precipitation from boreal winter to summer. Vegetation productivity in the northern mid-high latitudes is too low, possibly due to low soil moisture there. On the interannual timescale, the terrestrial ecosystem shows a strong response to ENSO. The model- simulated Nifio3.4 index and total terrestrial NEP are both characterized by a broad spectral peak in the range of 2-7 years. Further analysis indicates their correlation coefficient reaches -0.7 when NEP lags the Nifio3.4 index for about 1-2 months.

关键词： earth system Model （ESM） Dynamic Global Vegetation Model （DGVM） carbon cycle sea- sonal cycle interannual variability

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Is the atmospheric river operating at a self-organized criticality state?

arXiv

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arXiv 2025年

作者： Wang, Shang Meng, Jun Fang, Sheng Liu, Teng Christensen, Kim Kurths, Jürgen Fan, Jingfang School of Systems Science Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100029 China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and Design Technical University of Munich Munich85748 Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam14412 Germany Blackett Laboratory Centre for Complexity Science Imperial College London South Kensington Campus LondonSW7 2AZ United Kingdom Department of Physics Humboldt University Berlin10099 Germany

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are essential components of the global hydrological cycle, with profound implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and climate dynamics. Yet, the statistical organization and underlying physical mechanisms of AR intensity and evolution remain poorly understood. Here we apply methods from statistical physics to analyze the full life cycle of ARs and identify universal signatures of self-organized criticality (SOC). We demonstrate that AR morphology exhibits nontrivial fractal geometry, while AR event sizes—quantified via integrated water vapor transport—follow robust power-law distributions, displaying finite-size scaling. These scaling behaviors persist under warming scenarios, suggesting that ARs operate near a critical state as emergent, self-regulating systems. Concurrently, we observe a systematic poleward migration and intensification of ARs, linked to thermodynamic amplification and dynamical reorganization. Our findings establish a statistical physics framework for ARs, linking critical phenomena to the spatiotemporal structure of extreme events in a warming climate. © 2025, CC BY.

关键词： Statistical mechanics

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