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检索条件"机构=Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development"

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Analysis and management of large-scale Programs Under Sanctions

Analysis and Management of Large-Scale Programs Under Sancti...

引用

International Conference on management of large-scale system development (MLSD)

作者： Valery Akinfiev Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

ISBN: (数字)9798350375718

ISBN: (纸本)9798350375725

The strategic planning system of the Russian Federation widely uses program-target planning methods to achieve target development indicators for individual sectors and industries of the economy. The report examines the tasks of analyzing and forecasting the degree of achievability of target indicators of development programs under sanctions. We propose an approach to solving this problem, based on the construction of simulation models that make it possible to simulate material and financial flows over the periods of the program for various scenarios of sanctions restrictions. This approach allows us to numerically assess the impact of identified risks and changes in scenario conditions on the target indicators of the program. As part of the study, multifactor calculations were carried out to analyze the achievability of the target indicators of the “Comprehensive Program for the development of the Air Transport Industry of the Russian Federation until 2030,” which are illustrated with numerical examples.

关键词： Industries Analytical models Costs Biological system modeling Atmospheric modeling Strategic planning Numerical models large-scale systems Forecasting

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A Model of Crop Yield Increase management 15

A Model of Crop Yield Increase Management

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15th International Conference management of large-scale system development, MLSD 2022

作者： Karaulov, R.S. Dranko, O.I. Agroholding Kpi Llc Nizhny Novgorod region Russia V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Ras Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development Moscow Russia

ISBN: (数字)9781665497015

ISBN: (纸本)9781665497015

This is a proposed model for managing an agricultural enterprise based on the choice of technologies for efficiency increasing. The work considers the range of such technologies. Calculations are given on the example of one of the technologies. The main task is to identify agronomic, technical, technological, and other factors that affect crop yields for potential scaling and further development of crop production. © 2022 IEEE.

关键词： Cultivation

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Choice of Investment Decisions by Generating Companies, Taking into Account Payments for CO2 Emissions

Choice of Investment Decisions by Generating Companies, Taki...

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International Conference on Control systems, Mathematical Modelling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA)

作者： Valery Akinfiev Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

Planning for the development of electricity generation is a complex decision-making problem, especially in an oligopolistic market in which several generation companies compete with each other. The paper considers some tasks of choosing the strategic behavior of generating companies in the conditions of energy transition, in particular, considering the influence of mechanisms to stimulate the reduction of CO2 emissions. The approach used is based on the reduction of interrelated optimization problems of various agents of the electric power market to complementarity models that allow searching for a solution based on market equilibrium. The results of formalization and solution of the problem for a distributed heterogeneous generation network are presented. The problem considers three agents - generating companies, a grid company, and electricity consumers. Considering a heterogeneous generation network makes it possible to simulate various effects associated with a change in the agents’ behavior depending on the price of permits for CO2 emissions. To solve the problem, we use the method of reducing it to solve the mixed complementarity problem (MCP), for which there are effective packages.

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The Choice of Optimal Options for the development of Transport Corridors in the Context of the Reorientation of Export Flows of Russian Companies

The Choice of Optimal Options for the Development of Transpo...

引用

International Conference on management of large-scale system development (MLSD)

作者： Valery Akinfiev Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

We consider the problem of choosing the optimal option for developing transport infrastructure (transport corridors) in the context of sanctions and the closure of some export markets for industrial companies in the Russian Federation. The development of transport corridors will allow companies to reorient their export flows to other markets without losing financial stability. The problem is formulated as a dynamic production and transport problem with mixed variables, including the choice of options for developing the transport network. Methods for its solution are discussed. The results of a series of calculations are shown in an illustrative example. The solution to the problem makes it possible to choose the optimal options for the development of transport infrastructure and, at the same time, the optimal volumes of production and supply of products of companies, considering the dynamics of changes in the capacity of export markets and other constraints, using various scenarios for changing the source data and assumptions.

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Build or Buy? Synergy Evaluation in M&A

Build or Buy? Synergy Evaluation in M&A

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International Conference on management of large-scale system development (MLSD)

作者： Valery Akinfiev Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

The purpose of this work is to develop methods for assessing the synergistic effect in M&A transactions based on the use of dynamic production and financial models. Much of the literature on the synergy effect of M&A transactions usually focuses on a specific type of synergy. At the same time, this article proposes an approach that considers the cumulative effect of various types of operational and financial synergies. We use the TEO-INVEST software package to build production and financial models of companies. The model includes several blocks, each of which must be customized to the specifics of the company. The proposed approach allows us to take into account all changes in the value chain of the parent company during the consolidation of acquired companies and their impact on changes in the company's net cash flow. The method allows you to evaluate and select investment options in the vertical integration of a company, consisting of alternatives - buy an existing production asset or build a new production facility. Examples of applying the proposed method for choosing investment decisions are given in the example of a metallurgical company.

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Single-Factor Stress Testing of the system-Forming Enterprises 15

Single-Factor Stress Testing of the System-Forming Enterpris...

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15th International Conference management of large-scale system development, MLSD 2022

作者： Dranko, Oleg Bogomolov, Aleksey Dvoryashina, Marina Tsvirkun, Anatoly Laboratory of Large-Scale Systems Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Ras Moscow Russia Laboratory of System Problems of Control and Automation in Mechanical Engineering Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control Saratov Federal Scientific Centre of Ras Saratov Russia Laboratory of Management of the Development of Large-scale Systems V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Ras Moscow Russia

ISBN: (数字)9781665497015

ISBN: (纸本)9781665497015

We propose a method for conducting stress testing of enterprises in the real sector of the economy. The development includes the formulation and methodology for solving the inverse problem of stress testing and a predictive mathematical model based on data from open sources (companies' financial statements). The inverse task is to determine the characteristics of the financial and economic state of the enterprise, corresponding to various critical combinations of parameters of the financial result of its activities. Our original technique can significantly reduce the complexity and computational complexity of stress testing. We demonstrate our development by the stress testing backbone enterprises in the trade industry. The results obtained will find application in solving optimization problems for making decisions to increase the survivability of various sectors of the economy. © 2022 IEEE.

关键词： Inverse problems

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Choosing the Degree of Localization of Production Taking into Account the Interests of the Project Participants 14

Choosing the Degree of Localization of Production Taking int...

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14th International Conference management of large-scale system development, MLSD 2021

作者： Akinfiev, Valery Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

ISBN: (纸本)9781665412308

We consider the problem of choosing the degree of localization of production in Russia when implementing investment projects for the transfer of Western technologies. The problem is considered on the example of launching the production of innovative locomotives at Russian Railways. This type of investment projects refers to multipurpose projects. Each project participant has his own goal, the effectiveness of which should be assessed. A method is proposed for solving the problem according to the criterion of minimizing the 'life cycle cost', taking into account the coordination of the interests of the project participants. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Investments

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Approach to Building a Model Complex for Managing the development of Hydrogen Energy 14

Approach to Building a Model Complex for Managing the Develo...

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14th International Conference management of large-scale system development, MLSD 2021

作者： Tsvirkun, A.D. Rezchikov, A.F. Dranko, O.I. Stepanovskaya, I.A. Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

ISBN: (纸本)9781665412308

Based on causal analysis of the trends in the development of hydrogen energy, the concept of the structure of a digital complex, which combines various mathematical and simulation models, is proposed. development is the process of changing the structure of a system to achieve goals. We assume that such a complex will help identify bottlenecks in forecasting development and outline the necessary efforts to accelerate it. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Energy management

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Modeling the Expansion of the Production Capacity of Companies in the Oligopoly Market 14

Modeling the Expansion of the Production Capacity of Compani...

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14th International Conference management of large-scale system development, MLSD 2021

作者： Akinfiev, Valery Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

ISBN: (纸本)9781665412308

The article discusses the problem of choosing a strategy for expanding the production capacity of companies in a spatial oligopoly, which is formulated as a set of interrelated problems of nonlinear optimization with coupled variables. To solve it, a method is proposed for reducing the original problem to solving the mixed complementarity problem (MCP), as well as to solving mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). The prospects and directions of using the proposed approach to solving applied problems of the spatial development of production systems are discussed. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Competition

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large-scale Organizational and Technical systems Sustainable development Concept 14

Large-scale Organizational and Technical Systems Sustainable...

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14th International Conference management of large-scale system development, MLSD 2021

作者： Stepanovskaya, I.A. Laboratory of Management of Large-Scale System Development V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Moscow Russia

ISBN: (纸本)9781665412308

This article's subject is socio-cyber-physical self-organization based on the Internet of things, mobile systems, cognitive technologies, and wireless switching of new generations 4G, 5G, and higher. The purpose of the research is to use the socio-cyber-physical self-organization strategy for methodological and instrumental support of network technologies for remote interdisciplinary controlling the functioning and development of large-scale organizational and technical systems. The study's relevance is due to the increased requirements for indicators of fault tolerance, survivability, information security, and warranty periods for the operation of digital organizational and technical systems. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Cognitive systems

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