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arXiv 2021年

作者： Kastalskiy, Innokentiy A. Pankratova, Evgeniya V. Mirkes, Evgeny M. Kazantsev, Victor B. Gorban, Alexander N. Department of Neurotechnology Lobachevsky University 23 Gagarin Ave. Nizhny Novgorod603022 Russia 46 Ulyanov St. Nizhny Novgorod603950 Russia Center for Neurotechnology and Machine Learning Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University 14 Nevsky St. Kaliningrad236016 Russia Laboratory of Perspective Methods for Analysis of Multidimensional Data Institute of Information Technology Mathematics and Mechanics Lobachevsky University 23 Gagarin Ave. Nizhny Novgorod603022 Russia Department of Applied Mathematics Institute of Information Technology Mathematics and Mechanics Lobachevsky University 23 Gagarin Ave. Nizhny Novgorod603022 Russia Department of Mathematics University of Leicester University Rd LeicesterLE1 7RH United Kingdom Neuroscience and Cognitive Technology Laboratory Innopolis University 1 Universitetskaya St. Innopolis420500 Russia Laboratory of Neuromodeling Samara State Medical University 18 Gagarin St. Samara443079 Russia

The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the restrictions and the spreading of epidemics may decline. Over time, some people get tired/frustrated by the restrictions and stop following them (exhaustion), especially if the number of new cases drops down. After resting for a while, they can follow the restrictions again. But during this pause the second wave can come and become even stronger then the first one. Studies based on SIR models do not predict the observed quick exit from the first wave of epidemics. Social dynamics should be considered. The appearance of the second wave also depends on social factors. Many generalizations of the SIR model have been developed that take into account the weakening of immunity over time, the evolution of the virus, vaccination and other medical and biological details. However, these more sophisticated models do not explain the apparent differences in outbreak profiles between countries with different intrinsic sociocultural features. In our work, a system of models of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed, combining the dynamics of social stress with classical epidemic models. Social stress is described by the tools of sociophysics. The combination of a dynamic SIR-type model with the classical triad of stages of the general adaptation syndrome, alarm-resistance-exhaustion, makes it possible to describe with high accuracy the available statistical data for 13 countries. The sets of kinetic constants corresponding to optimal fit of model to data were found. These constants characterize the ability of society to mobilize efforts against epidemics and maintain this concentration over time, and can further help in the development of management strategies specific to a particular society. © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Epidemiology

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