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Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-policy AND PRACTICE 2010年第8期44卷 620-641页

作者： Karplus, Valerie J. Paltsev, Sergey Reilly, John M. MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA USA

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today's gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the mit Emissions Prediction and policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO2 price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO2 emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Alternative fuel vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Environmental policy Emissions

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Natural gas pricing reform in China: Getting closer to a market system?

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ENERGY policy 2015年 86卷 43-56页

作者： Paltsev, Sergey Zhang, Danwei MIT MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Recent policy in China targets an increase in the contribution of natural gas to the nation's energy supply. Historically, China's natural gas prices have been highly regulated with a goal to protect consumers. The old pricing regime failed to provide enough incentives for natural gas suppliers, which often resulted in natural gas shortage. A new gas pricing reform was tested in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces in 2011, and introduced nationwide in 2013. The reform is aimed at creating a more market-based pricing mechanism. We show that a substantial progress toward a better predictability and transparency of prices has been made. The prices are now more connected with the international fuel oil and liquid petroleum gas prices. The government's approach for a temporary two-tier pricing when some volumes are still traded at old prices reduced a potential opposition during the new regime implementation. Some limitations of the natural gas pricing remain as it created biased incentives for producers and favors large natural gas suppliers. The pricing reform at its current stage falls short of establishing a complete market mechanism driven by an interaction of supply and demand of natural gas in China. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： China Natural gas Prices Reform Energy policy

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Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the mit IGSM

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CLIMATIC change 2013年第3期117卷 561-573页

作者： Reilly, John Paltsev, Sergey Strzepek, Ken Selin, Noelle E. Cai, Yongxia Nam, Kyung-Min Monier, Erwan Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Scott, Jeffery Webster, Mort Sokolov, Andrei MIT MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth's physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. As examples, we consider effects on agriculture and human health. Progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes-global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives-crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions.

关键词： Climate change

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The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty

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ENERGY policy 2010年第4期38卷 1787-1796页

作者： Webster, Mort Paltsev, Sergey Reilly, John MIT MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing on a here-to-fore neglected component;its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and other potential international greenhouse gas mitigation policies comparing the costs of achieving emission targets with and without trading. These studies often show large cost reductions for all Parties under trading compared to a no trading case. We investigate the welfare gains of including emissions trading in the presence of uncertainty in economic growth rates, using both a partial equilibrium model based on marginal abatement cost curves and a computable general equilibrium model. We find that the hedge value of international trading is small relative to its value in reallocating emissions reductions when the burden sharing scheme does not resemble a least cost allocation. We also find that the effects of pre-existing tax distortions and terms of trade dominate the hedge value of trading. We conclude that the primary value of emissions trading in international agreements is as a burden sharing or wealth transfer mechanism and should be judged accordingly. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change Emissions trading Uncertainty

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Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment

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CLIMATIC change 2015年第1期131卷 21-33页

作者： Paltsev, Sergey Monier, Erwan Scott, Jeffery Sokolov, Andrei Reilly, John MIT MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the "no climate policy" scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m(2) and 3.7 W/m(2) by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation.

关键词： Greenhouse gases

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Marginal Abatement Costs and Marginal Welfare Costs for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions: Results from the EPPA Model

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ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT 2012年第4期17卷 325-336页

作者： Morris, Jennifer Paltsev, Sergey Reilly, John MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, relationships between tonnes of emissions abated and the CO2 (or greenhouse gas (GHG)) price, have been widely used as pedagogic devices to illustrate simple economic concepts such as the benefits of emissions trading. They have also been used to produce reduced-form models to examine situations where solving the more complex model underlying the MAC is difficult. Some important issues arise in such applications: (1) Are MAC relationships independent of what happens in other regions?, (2) are MACs stable through time regardless of what policies have been implemented in the past?, and (3) can one approximate welfare costs from MACs? This paper explores the basic characteristics of MAC and marginal welfare cost (MWC) curves, deriving them using the mit Emissions Prediction and policy Analysis model. We find that, depending on the method used to construct them, MACs are affected by policies abroad. They are also dependent on policies in place in the past and depend on whether they are CO2-only or include all GHGs. Further, we find that MACs are, in general, not closely related to MWCs and therefore should not be used to derive estimates of welfare change. We also show that, as commonly constructed, MACs may be unreliable in replicating results of the parent model when used to simulate GHG policies. This is especially true if the policy simulations differ from the conditions under which the MACs were simulated.

关键词： Climate policy Economic cost Greenhouse gas emissions reductions Marginal abatement cost

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A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

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CLIMATIC change 2015年第1期131卷 51-66页

作者： Monier, Erwan Gao, Xiang Scott, Jeffery R. Sokolov, Andrei P. Schlosser, C. Adam MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States (US) associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections, global climate system parameters, natural variability and model structural uncertainty. The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (mit) Integrated global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework, which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Second, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that the range of annual mean temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to end-of-century precipitation changes, with natural variability dominating until 2050. For the set of scenarios used in this study, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty, defined as the range of warming and changes in precipitation, in future projections of climate change over the US.

关键词： Climate change

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Comparing oceanic heat uptake in AOGCM transient climate change experiments

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JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2003年第10期16卷 1573-1582页

作者： Sokolov, AP Forest, CE Stone, PH MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

The transient response of both surface air temperature and deep ocean temperature to an increasing external forcing strongly depends on climate sensitivity and the rate of the heat mixing into the deep ocean, estimates for both of which have large uncertainty. In this paper a method for estimating rates of oceanic heat uptake for coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation models from results of transient climate change simulations is described. For models considered in this study, the estimates vary by a factor of 2 1/2. Nevertheless, values of oceanic heat uptake for all models fall in the range implied by the climate record for the last century. It is worth noting that the range of the model values is narrower than that consistent with observations and thus does not provide a full measure of the uncertainty in the rate of oceanic heat uptake.

关键词： Climate change

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Does model sensitivity to changes in CO₂ provide a measure of sensitivity to other forcings?

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JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2006年第13期19卷 3294-3306页

作者： Sokolov, Andrei P. MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Simulation of both the climate of the twentieth century and a future climate change requires taking into account numerous forcings, while climate sensitivities of general circulation models are defined as the equilibrium surface warming due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. A number of simulations with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (mit) climate model of intermediate complexity with different forcings have been carried out to study to what extent sensitivity to changes in CO2 concentration (S-CO2) represent sensitivities to other forcings. The mit model, similar to other models, shows a strong dependency of the simulated surface warming on the vertical structure of the imposed forcing. This dependency is a result of "semidirect" effects in the simulations with localized tropospheric heating. A method for estimating semidirect effects associated with different feedback mechanisms is presented. It is shown that forcing that includes these effects is a better measure of expected surface warming than a forcing that accounts for stratospheric adjustment only. Simulations with the versions of the mit model with different strengths of cloud feedback show that, for the range of sensitivities produced by existing GCMs, S-CO2 provides a good measure of the model sensitivity to other forcings. In the case of strong cloud feedback, sensitivity to the increase in CO2 concentration overestimates model sensitivity to both negative forcings, leading to the cooling of the surface and "black carbon" - like forcings with elevated heating. This is explained by the cloud feedback being less efficient in the case of increasing sea ice extent and snow cover or by the above-mentioned semidirect effects, which are absent in the CO2 simulations, respectively.

关键词： Climatology

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Characterizing wind power resource reliability in southern Africa

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APPLIED ENERGY 2016年 161卷 565-573页

作者： Fant, Charles Gunturu, Bhaskar Schlosser, Adam MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Producing electricity from wind is attractive because it provides a clean, low-maintenance power supply. However, wind resource is intermittent on various timescales, thus occasionally introducing large and sudden changes in power supply. A better understanding of this variability can greatly benefit power grid planning. In the following study, wind resource is characterized using metrics that highlight these intermittency issues;therefore identifying areas of high and low wind power reliability in southern Africa and Kenya at different time-scales. After developing a wind speed profile, these metrics are applied at various heights in order to assess the added benefit of raising the wind turbine hub. Furthermore, since the interconnection of wind farms can aid in reducing the overall intermittency, the value of interconnecting nearby sites is mapped using two distinct methods. Of the countries in this region, the Republic of South Africa has shown the most interest in wind power investment. For this reason, we focus parts of the study on wind reliability in the country. The study finds that, although mean Wind Power Density is high in South Africa compared to its neighboring countries, wind power resource tends to be less reliable than in other parts of southern Africa namely central Tanzania. We also find that South Africa's potential varies over different timescales, with higher reliability in the summer than winter, and higher reliability during the day than at night. This study is concluded by introducing two methods and measures to characterize the value of interconnection, including the use of principal component analysis to identify areas with a common signal. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Wind energy Intermittency Africa South Africa Reanalysis Renewable energy

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