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Incorporating Multiple Uncertainties into Projections of Chinese Private Car Sales and Stock

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 2018年第47期2672卷 182-193页

作者： Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo Green, William H. MIT Dept Chem Engn Cambridge MA 02139 USA MIT MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change 77 Massachusetts Ave Cambridge MA 02139 USA

China is in a fast-growing stage of mobility development, and its increasing demand for private cars comes with growing energy consumption and pollutant emissions. Uncertainty in Chinese parameterization of car ownership models makes forecasting these trends a challenge. We develop an application of the Monte Carlo method, conditioned on historical data, to sample parameters for a model projecting aspects of private car diffusion, such as the mix of new and replacement sales. Our model includes changes in per-capita disposable income-both the mean and level of inequality-and a measure of car affordability. By incorporating multiple uncertainties, we show a distribution of possible future outcomes: a low stock of 280 million (1st decile);median of 430 million;and high of 620 million vehicles (9th decile) in 2050. This illustrates the limitations of attempts to model vehicle markets at the national level, by showing how uncertainties in fundamental descriptors of growth lead to a broad range of possible outcomes. While uncertainty in projected per-capita ownership grows continually, the share of first-time purchases in sales is most uncertain in the near term and then narrows as the market saturates. Replacement purchases increasingly capture the sales market from 2025. Our results suggest that stakeholders have a narrow window of opportunity to regulate the fuel economy, pollution and other attributes of vehicles sold to first-time buyers. These may, in turn, shape consumers' experience and expectations of car ownership, affecting their additional and replacement purchases.

关键词： Sales

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Thermohaline circulation stability: A box model study. Part II: Coupled atmosphere-ocean model

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JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2005年第4期18卷 514-529页

作者： Lucarini, V Stone, PH MIT Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci Cambridge MA 02139 USA MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

A thorough analysis of the stability of a coupled version of an interhemispheric three-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. This study follows a similarly structured analysis of an uncoupled version of the same model presented in Part I of this paper. The model consists of a northern high-latitude box, A tropical box, and a southern high-latitude box, which can be thought of as corresponding to the northern, tropical, and southern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. This paper examines how the strength of THC changes when the system undergoes forcings;representing global warming conditions. Since a coupled model is used, a direct representation of the radiative forcing is possible because the main atmospheric physical processes responsible for freshwater and heat fluxes are formulated separately. Each perturbation to the initial equilibrium is characterized by the total radiative forcing realized, by the rate of increase, and by the north-south asymmetry. Although only weakly asymmetric or symmetric radiative forcings are representative of physically reasonable conditions, general asymmetric forcings are considered in order to get a more complete picture of the mathematical properties of the system. The choice of suitably defined metrics makes it possible to determine the boundary dividing the set of radiative forcing scenarios that lead the system to equilibria characterized by a THC pattern similar to the present one, from those that drive the system to equilibria where the THC is reversed. This paper also considers different choices for the atmospheric transport parameterizations and for the ratio between the high-latitude and tropical radiative forcing. It is generally found that fast forcings are more effective than slow forcings in disrupting the present THC pattern, forcings that are stronger in the northern box are also more effective in destabilizing the system, and very slow forcings do not destabilize the system whatever their asymmetry, un

关键词： Climatology

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The global demand for motorized mobility

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-policy AND PRACTICE 1998年第6期32卷 455-477页

作者： Schafer, A MIT Ctr Technol Policy & Ind Dev Cambridge MA 02139 USA MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

This paper provides a data set of global and regional passenger traffic volumes between 1960 and 1990 for the four major motorized modes of transport-cars, buses, railways, and aircraft-in eleven world regions. Based on these data, global long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split are projected. The underlying constraints, originally employed in urban traffic planning and never before applied to global scenarios, assume that humans invest fixed budgets of money and time for travel on average. The paper also discusses implications of rising travel demand on world passenger transport energy use, on the global automobile motorization rate, and briefly deals with the long-term implications of unlimited mobility growth. (C) 1998 Elsevier science Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： global mobility passenger travel travel budgets transportation CO2 emissions

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Subglobal climate-change actions and carbon leakage: the implication of international capital flows

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ENERGY ECONOMICS 2001年第2期23卷 121-139页

作者： Babiker, MH MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

The climate-change agreement negotiated in Kyoto obliges the OECD countries to initiate the international effort of abating the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In the event that such an initiative is taken, the associated competitive pressures may induce significant offsetting increases in non-OECD emissions (a process generally known as leakage). The current models used to study these competitive effects have adopted an empirically inconsistent view of the world that international capital markets are perfectly integrated. To the extent that restrictions on the international mobility of capital affect regional investment decisions, it might be expected that the competitive impacts drawn from these models could significantly be altered. This paper addresses this issue. The paper suggests that these competitive effects are not really contingent on capital flows. With a regionally disaggregated dynamic model of the world economy, we show a quite robust result that carbon leakage is virtually unaffected by the presence of restrictions on the mobility of international capital. (C) 2001 Elsevier science B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Kyoto leakage capital flows competitive effects

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Japanese nuclear power and the Kyoto agreement

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JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES 2000年第3期14卷 169-188页

作者： Babiker, M Reilly, J Ellerman, D MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

A global computable general equilibrium model is used to evaluate interactions of nuclear power and climate change policy in Japan. We find that to match official Japanese forecasts for nuclear power would require subsidies of 50 to 70 percent. We find that the carbon price is $20 to $40 (US 1995$) per ton higher compared with the unconstrained case if nuclear expansion is limited to plants already commissioned or under construction, a scenario whose likelihood increased as a result of the recent nuclear accident. (C) 2000 Academic Press. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: Q4, Q2, F1.

关键词： climate change trade Japan energy carbon permits

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Applying engineering and fleet detail to represent passenger vehicle transport in a computable general equilibrium model

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ECONOMIC MODELLING 2013年第1期30卷 295-305页

作者： Karplus, Valerie J. Paltsev, Sergey Babiker, Mustafa Reilly, John M. MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

A well-known challenge in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is to maintain correspondence between the forecasted economic and physical quantities over time. Maintaining such a correspondence is necessary to understand how economic forecasts reflect, and are constrained by, relationships within the underlying physical system. This work develops a method for projecting global demand for passenger vehicle transport, retaining supplemental physical accounting for vehicle stock, fuel use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This method is implemented in the mit Emissions Prediction and policy Analysis Version 5 (EPPA5) model and includes several advances over previous approaches. First, the relationship between per-capita income and demand for passenger vehicle transport services (in vehicle-miles traveled, or VMT) is based on econometric estimates and modeled using quasi-homothetic preferences. Second, the passenger vehicle transport sector is structured to capture opportunities to reduce fleet-level gasoline use through the application of vehicle efficiency or alternative fuel vehicle technologies, introduction of alternative fuels, or reduction in demand for VMT. Third, alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are represented in the EPPA model. Fixed costs as well as learning effects that could influence the rate of AFV introduction are captured explicitly. This model development lays the foundation for assessing policies that differentiate based on vehicle age and efficiency, alter the relative prices of fuels, or focus on promoting specific advanced vehicle or fuel technologies. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： CGE model Transport Energy efficiency Alternative fuel vehicles

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Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment

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ECONOMIC MODELLING 2016年 52卷 867-883页

作者： Chen, Y. -H. Henry Paltsev, Sergey Reilly, John M. Morris, Jennifer F. Babiker, Mustafa H. MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

A growing concern for using large scale applied general equilibrium models to analyze energy and environmental policies has been whether these models produce reliable projections. Based on the latest mit Economic Projection and policy Analysis model we developed, this study aims to tackle this question in several ways, including enriching the representation of consumer preferences to generate changes in consumption pattern consistent to those observed in different stages of economic development, comparing results of historical simulations against actual data, and conducting sensitivity analyses of future projections to key parameters under various policy scenarios. We find that: 1) as the economies grow, the empirically observed income elasticities of demand are better represented by our setting than by a pure Stone-Geary approach, 2) historical simulations in general perform better in developed regions than in developing regions, and 3) simulation results are more sensitive to GDP growth than energy and non-energy substitution elasticities and autonomous energy efficiency improvement. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Economy-wide analysis Model evaluation Counterfactual simulation Preference calibration Energy use Food consumption

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IGSM-TEM Land use in CAM3.1-CLM3.0: Impacts of Land use and biofuels policy on climate

IGSM-TEM Land use in CAM3.1-CLM3.0: Impacts of Land use and ...

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MSSANZ 19th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM)

作者： Hallgren, Willow Schlosser, Adam Monier, Erwan Sokolov, Andrei Kicklighter, David Melillo, Jerry Cai, Yongxia Reilly, John Gurgel, Angelo Felzer, Ben Paltsev, Sergey MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

ISBN: (纸本)9780987214317

The impact on climate of future land use and energy policy scenarios is explored using two economically-modelled land-use frameworks: (i) Pure Cost Conversion Response (PCCR), or 'deforestation', where the price of land constrains agricultural conversion, including growing biofuels, and;(ii) Observed Land Supply Response (OLSR), or 'intensification', where legal, environmental and other constraints encourage more intense use of existing agricultural land (i.e. less forest clearing). These two land-use frameworks were used to explore how the large scale plantation of cellulosic biofuels to meet global energy demand impacts the future climate. The land cover of the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3.0 (CAM3.0) was manipulated to reflect these four different land use and energy scenarios (i.e. PCCR and OLSR with and without biofuels). CAM3.0 was run to equilibrium, under 1990 and 2050 climate conditions, in order to assess the impact these land cover changes have on the atmospheric state. For the 2050 climate conditions, CAM was prescribed with concentrations of radiatively active trace gases (a.k.a. greenhouse gases) that result from a moderate stabilization target by the end of the 21st century. Overall in the extratropics, the intensification and deforestation scenarios increase the land-surface reflectivity over many areas of the globe, indicating that biofuel cropland is replacing darker land-vegetation types, decreasing absorption of solar radiation, which leads to a cooling effect. These patterns are strongest in the northern hemisphere, and occur to a greater extent in the PCCR scenarios. Moreover, the cooling is strongest when a biofuel policy is implemented. These temperature changes are for the most part overwhelmed by the trace-gas forcing (i.e. anthropogenic warming). However, in some regions, land surface changes in the PCCR case can counteract or notably lessen the warming. In much of the Amazonian and African tropics, however, the PCCR deforestation

关键词： land use land cover biofuels modeling climate change

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City Size Distribution as a Function of Socioeconomic Conditions: An Eclectic Approach to Downscaling global Population

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URBAN STUDIES 2013年第1期50卷 208-225页

作者： Nam, Kyung-Min Reilly, John M. MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

This study introduces a new method of downscaling global population distribution. Its novelty is that it allows city size distributions to interact with socioeconomic variables. The contribution to the literature is twofold. One is a challenge to the conventional view that the proportionate growth dynamics underlies empirical rank-size regularities. It is shown that the city size distribution of a region can deviate substantially from a log-normal distribution with cross-regional and time variations, and that such variations can be explained by certain socioeconomic conditions that each region confronts at a particular time point. In addition, this study can pave the way for various research projects which need spatial distribution of global population at fine grid cell levels as key input. The model is applicable to the entire globe, including regions for which reliable sub-regional population datasets are limitedly available, and can be extended easily for predictive analysis.

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What does climate change mean for agriculture in developing countries? A comment on Mendelsohn and Dinar

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WORLD BANK RESEARCH OBSERVER 1999年第2期14卷 295-305页

作者： Reilly, J MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change Cambridge MA 02139 USA

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