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Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions

HEALTH ECONOMICS 2023年第7期32卷 1603-1625页

作者： Breeze, Penny R. Squires, Hazel Ennis, Kate Meier, Petra Hayes, Kate Lomax, Nik Shiell, Alan Kee, Frank de Vocht, Frank O'Flaherty, Martin Gilbert, Nigel Purshouse, Robin Robinson, Stewart Dodd, Peter J. Strong, Mark Paisley, Suzy Smith, Richard Briggs, Andrew Shahab, Lion Occhipinti, Jo-An Lawson, Kenny Bayley, Thomas Smith, Robert Boyd, Jennifer Kadirkamanathan, Visakan Cookson, Richard Hernandez-Alava, Monica Jackson, Christopher H. Karapici, Amanda Sassi, Franco Scarborough, Peter Siebert, Uwe Silverman, Eric Vale, Luke Walsh, Cathal Brennan, Alan School of Health and Related Research University of Sheffield Sheffield UK British Medical Journal Technology Appraisal Group London UK MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit University of Glasgow Scotland UK School of Geography University of Leeds Leeds UK Department of Public Health LaTrobe University Melbourne Australia Centre for Public Health Queen's University Belfast Belfast UK Population Health Sciences Bristol Medical School University of Bristol Bristol UK NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West (ARC West) Bristol UK Department of Public Health Policy and Systems University of Liverpool Liverpool UK CRESS University of Surrey Guildford UK Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering University of Sheffield Sheffield UK Business School University of Newcastle Newcastle UK Lumanity-HEOR South Yorkshire Sheffield UK College of Medicine and Health University of Exeter Exeter UK London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London UK Department of Behavioural Science and Health UCL London UK Brain and Mind Centre University of Sydney New South Wales Camperdown Australia United Kingdom Health Security Agency Birmingham UK MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit University of Glasgow Glasgow UK Centre for Health Economics University of York Heslington UK MRC Biostatistics Unit University of Cambridge Cambridge UK NIHR SPHR London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation Imperial College Business School London UK Nuffield Department of Population Health University of Oxford Oxfordshire Oxford UK Department of Public Health Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment UMIT TIROL - University for Health Sciences and Technology Hall in Tirol Tyrol Austria Division of Health Technology Assessment and Bioinformatics ONCOTYROL - Center for Personalized Cancer Medicine Innsbruck Austria Center for Health Decision Science Departments of Epidemio

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed;principles for designing a complex systems model;and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

关键词： complex systems economic modeling public health

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COVID-19 estimated to have increased plastics, diclofenac, and triclosan pollution in more than half of urban rivers worldwide

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Cell Reports Sustainability 2024年第1期1卷

作者： Zhang, Qi Kroeze, Carolien Cui, Shilei Li, Yanan Ma, Lin Strokal, Vita Vriend, Paul Wang, Mengru van Wijnen, Jikke Xu, Wen Zhang, Fusuo Strokal, Maryna College of Resources and Environmental Sciences National Academy of Agriculture Green Development Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions Ministry of Education China Agricultural University Beijing China Water Systems and Global Change group Environmental Sciences Department Wageningen University & Research Wageningen Netherlands Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University & Research Droevendaalsesteeg 4 Wageningen 6708 PB Netherlands Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology Center for Agricultural Resources Research Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology The Chinese Academy of Sciences Hebei China Department of Agrosphere Ecology and Environmental Control Faculty of Plant Protection Biotechnology and Ecology the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine Kyiv Ukraine Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management Directorate-General for Public Works and Water Management Utrecht Netherlands Open University Faculty of Science Environmental Sciences Department Heerlen Netherlands

The enhanced use of protective materials and chemicals during the COVID-19 pandemic has probably increased river pollution, but the effects of country-specific measures on multiple pollutants in rivers worldwide are not well documented. Here, we use an updated, spatially explicit water quality model to estimate the effects of the increased use of hand soap (triclosan), personal protective equipment and packaging materials (plastics), painkillers (diclofenac), and reduced transportation (microplastics from car tires) on river pollution in 10,226 sub-basins worldwide. Model results indicate that, globally, COVID-19 measures increased river pollution with macroplastics by 56%, triclosan by 33%, and diclofenac by 50%. Notably, only microplastics from car tires decreased. We identified priority sub-basins and pollutants across the globe for which water pollution control strategies should consider the impacts of COVID-19 measures. For these sub-basins, our results can inform the development of strategies for ameliorating the impacts of measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2023 The Author(s)

关键词： COVID-19 environmental impacts modeling multi-pollutants water pollution controls

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Monocular Localization in Feature-Annotated 3D Polygon Maps

Monocular Localization in Feature-Annotated 3D Polygon Maps

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European Conference on Mobile Robots (ECMR)

作者： Alexander Mock Thomas Wiemann Joachim Hertzberg Knowledge Based Systems and Autonomous Robotics Groups at the Institute of Computer Science Osnabrück University Osnabrück Germany German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) Niedersachsen Lab Plan-Based Robot Control Group Osnabrück Germany

Localization in six degrees of freedom is becoming increasingly relevant, especially in indoor environments where GPS is not available. To localize autonomous vehicles like UAVs in such areas, reliable methods for self-localization with low-weight sensors are required. In this paper, we present an approach to precisely localize systems with monocular cameras in polygonal 3D maps annotated with keypoints and feature descriptors computed from LiDAR data and associated reference images. Our contribution consists of offline map computation from high resolution 3D point clouds with corresponding reference images as well as online localization within these maps using low cost sensors. During localization, features extracted from the vehicle’s camera image stream are matched against the reference map. The proposed method is capable of real-time localization and suitable for precise global localization. The evaluation shows comparable results to state of the art with high re-localization accuracy.

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The Regulation of a Quadrotor UAV Carrying a Pendulum using Receding Horizon control

The Regulation of a Quadrotor UAV Carrying a Pendulum using ...

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International Conference on Information Technology and Electrical Engineering (ICITEE)

作者： Tua A. Tamba Yul Y. Nazaruddin Endang Juliastuti Center for Control Automation & Systems Engineering Parahyangan Catholic University Bandung Indonesia National Center for Sustainable Transportation Technology Bandung Indonesia Instrumentation & Control Research Group Institut Teknologi Bandung

ISBN: (数字)9781728110974

ISBN: (纸本)9781728110981

This paper proposes an approach for regulating the stability of an inverted pendulum that is attached on top of a moving quadrotor UAV. The approach is based on the receding horizon control scheme whose objective is to stabilize the pendulum in a vertical position while the quadrotor UAV is moving from predetermined initial to final poses. More specifically, the approach formulates a parametric quadratic optimization of the simultaneous stabilization of both the inverted pendulum and the quadrotor UAV. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the successful implementation of the proposed method.

关键词： Optimization Regulation Mathematical model Electrical engineering Vehicle dynamics Task analysis Simulation

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Polynomial-Based Linear Programming Relaxation of Sensor Network Localization Problem

Polynomial-Based Linear Programming Relaxation of Sensor Net...

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International Conference on Information Technology and Electrical Engineering (ICITEE)

作者： Tua A. Tamba Yul Y. Nazaruddin Center for Control Automation & Systems Engineering Parahyangan Catholic University Bandung Indonesia National Center for Sustainable Transportation Technology Bandung Indonesia Instrumentation & Control Research Group Institut Teknologi Bandung

ISBN: (数字)9781728110974

ISBN: (纸本)9781728110981

One important task in the deployment of a wireless sensor network is solving the sensor network localization problem to assure location awareness of each sensor node in the network. The sensor network localization can be formulated as a global optimization problem that aims to minimize the squared inter-sensor distances under the constraint that such distances equal to some given numbers. The corresponding optimization formulation is generally nonsmooth, nonconvex, and NP-hard problem, and thus prior works have proposed approximate solution using relaxation methods such as semidefinite or conic programming. In this paper, a linear programming relaxation approach is proposed to solve such an optimization problem using the concept of Handelman's representation of nonnegative polynomial functions over polytopic set. Numerical simulation results are given to illustrate the promising potential of the proposed approach.

关键词： Optimization Wireless sensor networks Noise measurement Wireless communication Linear programming Electrical engineering Programming

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Achieving consensus in spite of stubbornness: time-varying concatenated Friedkin-Johnsen models

Achieving consensus in spite of stubbornness: time-varying c...

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IEEE Conference on Decision and control

作者： L. Wang C. Bernardo Y. Hong F. Vasca G. Shi C. Altafini Key Laboratory of Systems and Control Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Group for Research on Automatic Control Engineering University of Sannio Benevento Italy Tongji University Shanghai China Australian Center for Field Robotics School of Aerospace Mechanical and Mechatronic Engineering The University of Sydney NSW Sydney Division of Automatic Control Linköping University Linköping Sweden

ISBN: (纸本)9781665436601

A concatenated Friedkin-Johnsen (FJ) model is a two time-scale opinion dynamics model in which stubborn agents discuss a sequence of issues. For each issue, a FJ model is adopted, and concatenation refers to the fact that the final opinion of the agents at issue s becomes the initial condition at issue s + 1. In this paper we deal with the case in which the system is open, i.e., the group of interacting agents changes at each issue, and so does their stubbornness. A concatenated FJ model can in this case be represented as an infinite product of stochastic matrices. For such system, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the opinions of the agents converge to consensus.

关键词： Sufficient conditions Conferences Stochastic processes

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Single-Stage Object Detection from Top-View Grid Maps on Custom Sensor Setups

Single-Stage Object Detection from Top-View Grid Maps on Cus...

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IEEE Symposium on Intelligent Vehicle

作者： Sascha Wirges Shuxiao Ding Christoph Stiller Institute of Measurement and Control Systems Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Karlsruhe Germany Mobile Perception Systems Group FZI Research Center for Information Technology Karlsruhe Germany

ISBN: (数字)9781728166735

ISBN: (纸本)9781728166742

We present our approach to unsupervised domain adaptation for single-stage object detectors on top-view grid maps in automated driving scenarios. Our goal is to train a robust object detector on grid maps generated from custom sensor data and setups. We first introduce a single-stage object detector for grid maps based on RetinaNet. We then extend our model by image- and instance-level domain classifiers at different feature pyramid levels which are trained in an adversarial manner. This allows us to train robust object detectors for unlabeled domains. We evaluate our approach quantitatively on the nuScenes and KITTI benchmarks and present qualitative domain adaptation results for unlabeled measurements recorded by our experimental vehicle. Our results demonstrate that object detection accuracy for unlabeled domains can be improved by applying our domain adaptation strategy.

关键词： Feature extraction Object detection Detectors Training Automobiles Benchmark testing Three-dimensional displays

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Learned Enrichment of Top-View Grid Maps Improves Object Detection

Learned Enrichment of Top-View Grid Maps Improves Object Det...

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International Conference on Intelligent Transportation

作者： Sascha Wirges Ye Yang Sven Richter Haohao Hu Christoph Stiller Institute of Measurement and Control Systems Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Karlsruhe Germany Mobile Perception Systems Group FZI Research Center for Information Technology Karlsruhe Germany

ISBN: (数字)9781728141497

ISBN: (纸本)9781728141503

We propose an object detector for top-view grid maps which is additionally trained to generate an enriched version of its input. Our goal in the joint model is to improve generalization by regularizing towards structural knowledge in form of a map fused from multiple adjacent range sensor measurements. This training data can be generated in an automatic fashion, thus does not require manual annotations. We present an evidential framework to generate training data, investigate different model architectures and show that predicting enriched inputs as an additional task can improve object detection performance.

关键词： Object detection Task analysis Detectors Feature extraction Data models Uncertainty Particle measurements

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Decision-Making in Driver-Automation Shared control:A Review and Perspectives

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IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 2020年第5期7卷 1289-1307页

作者： Wenshuo Wang Xiaoxiang Na Dongpu Cao Jianwei Gong Junqiang Xi Yang Xing Fei-Yue Wang IEEE California PATH University of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA 94720 USA Department of Engineering University of CambridgeCambridge CB21PZU.K. Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering University of WaterlooWaterloo N2L3G1Canada Department of Mechanical Engineering Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore 639798Singapore State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190and also with the Research Center for Military Computational Experiments and Parallel Systems TechnologyNational University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China

Shared control schemes allow a human driver to work with an automated driving agent in driver-vehicle systems while retaining the driver’s abilities to *** human driver,as an essential agent in the driver-vehicle shared control systems,should be precisely modeled regarding their cognitive processes,control strategies,and decision-making *** interactive strategy design between drivers and automated driving agents brings an excellent challenge for human-centric driver assistance systems due to the inherent characteristics of *** open-ended questions arise,such as what proper role of human drivers should act in a shared control scheme?How to make an intelligent decision capable of balancing the benefits of agents in shared control systems?Due to the advent of these attentions and questions,it is desirable to present a survey on the decision making between human drivers and highly automated vehicles,to understand their architectures,human driver modeling,and interaction strategies under the driver-vehicle shared ***,we give a further discussion on the key future challenges and *** are likely to shape new potential research directions.

关键词： Automated vehicle decision-making human driver human-vehicle interaction shared control

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Real-time Fault Estimation for a Class of Discrete-Time Linear Parameter-Varying systems

arXiv

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arXiv 2021年

作者： van der Ploeg, Chris Silvas, Emilia van de Wouw, Nathan Esfahani, Peyman Mohajerin Department of Mechanical Engineering Eindhoven University of Technology Netherlands The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research Integrated Vehicle Safety Group Department of Civil Environmental and Geo-Engineering University of Minnesota United States Delft Center for Systems and Control Delft University of Technology Netherlands

Estimating and detecting faults is crucial in ensuring safe and efficient automated systems. In the presence of disturbances, noise or varying system dynamics, such estimation is even more challenging. To address this challenge, this article proposes a novel filter to estimate multiple fault signals for a class of discrete-time linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems. The design of such a filter is formulated as an optimization problem and is solved recursively, while the system dynamics may vary over time. Conditions for existence and detectability of the fault are introduced and the problem is formulated and solved using the quadratic programming framework. We further propose an approximate scheme that can be arbitrarily precise while it enjoys an analytical solution, which supports real-time implementation. The method is illustrated and validated on an automated vehicle's lateral dynamics, which is a practically relevant example for LPV systems. The results show that the estimation filter can decouple unknown disturbances and known or measurable parameter variations in the dynamics while estimating the unknown fault. Copyright © 2021, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Linear systems

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