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Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion with cuckoo algorithm

Acta Geophysica Sinica 2025年第4期68卷 1511-1520页

作者： Li, Jin Zhang, Huai Shi, YaoLin National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China Guangdong Zhuhai519080 China Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China

Due to the incompleteness of actual geophysical survey data, including geophysical gravitational, magnetic, electrical and seismic measurements, and low signal-to-noise ratio of partial data, the traditional inversion theories based on Tikhonov regularization face issues such as low resolution and poor adaptability. In recent years, stochastic inversion, represented by Bayesian inversion, has become increasingly mature. This method offers advantages of the higher resolution of inversion results, better global convergence and easier combination with artificial intelligence (AI), compensating for the shortcomings of traditional algorithms. The main bottleneck of the Bayesian inversion method lies in a large amount of calculation, slow and unstable convergence of the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. In this paper, the target parameters of geophysical inversion are constructed under the framework of Bayesian inversion. By the physical relationship between the data and the parameters to be inverted, based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, the cuckoo algorithm is introduced to optimize sampling, and the inversion of the gravity field and the average velocity of seismic wave is realized, and compared with traditional inversion methods. The results show that method we proposed has higher accuracy, faster convergence and better stability than the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion method, which provides a new idea and a new approach for realizing the nonlinear inversion theory combining Tikhonov regularization and stochastic inversion in geophysical inversion in the future. © 2025 Editorial Office of Chinese Journal of Geophysics. All rights reserved.

关键词： Markov chains

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Machine learning for membrane bioreactor research:principles,methods,applications,and a tutorial

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2025年第3期19卷 119-144页

作者： Yizhe Lai Kang Xiao Yifan He Xian Liu Jihua Tan Wenchao Xue Aiqian Zhang Xia Huang Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China Environmental Chemistry Faculty College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Department of Energy Environmentand Climate ChangeSchool of EnvironmentResourcesand DevelopmentAsian Institute of TechnologyP.O.Box 4Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Membrane fouling poses a significant challenge to the sustainable development of membrane bioreactor(MBR)technologies for wastewater *** accurate prediction of the membrane filtration process is of great importance for identifying and controlling *** learning methods address the limitations of traditional statistical approaches,such as low accuracy,poor generalization ability,and slow convergence,particularly in predicting complex filtration and fouling processes within the realm of big *** article provides an in-depth exposition of machine learning *** study then reviews advances in MBRs that utilize machine learning methods,including artificial neural networks(ANN),support vector machines(SVM),decision trees,and ensemble *** on current literature,this study summarizes and compares the model input and output characteristics(including foulant characteristics,solution environments,filtration conditions,operating conditions,and time factors),as well as the selection of models and optimization *** modeling procedures of SVM,random forest(RF),back propagation neural network(BPNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and genetic algorithm-back propagation(GA-BP)methods are elucidated through a tutorial *** simulation results demonstrated that all five methods yielded accurate predictions with R2>***,the existing challenges in the implementation of machine learning models in MBRs were *** is notable that integration of deep learning,automated machine learning(AutoML)and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)may facilitate the deployment of models in practical engineering *** insights presented here are expected to facilitate the establishment of an intelligent control framework for MBR processes in future endeavors.

关键词： Membrane bioreactor Machine learning Pollutant removal Membrane fouling Model prediction

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Impact of refined oceanic model resolution on the simulation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in LICOM3

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年

作者： Wang, Xiaowei Yu, Yongqiang Yu, Zipeng Lin, Pengfei National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility Beijing China

The present study compares the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the North Atlantic from two simulations by an oceanic general circulation model with 1° × 1° and 0.1° × 0.1° resolution, respectively, which explores the sensitivity of AMOC to the resolution. The ocean model is the latest version of the LASG/IAP Climate system Model (LICOM3), and it is forced with atmospheric data from phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP2). Comprehensive comparison between the two simulations indicates that the simulated AMOC is highly sensitive to the spatial resolution. The high-resolution model (LICOM-H) simulates a deeper mixed-layer depth (MLD), due to increased surface salinity, than that in the low-resolution model (LICOM-L) in the Labrador Sea, and it also has stronger AMOC strength (the maximum climatic mean AMOC from 1958 to 2018 is 23.4 Sv for LICOM-H and 21.2 Sv for LICOM-L) and larger variability of AMOC index (2.3 Sv for LICOM-H and 1.7 Sv for LICOM-L). These differences can mainly be attributed to two main dynamic processes that benefit from high resolution. Firstly, LICOM-H can simulate much stronger boundary currents (∼0.6 m s⁻¹) than LICOM-L (0.3 m s⁻¹) in the upper ocean, which leads to saltier and warmer seawater being transported to the Labrador Sea, where it enhances deep convection. Secondly, in LICOM-H, the stronger variability of AMOC is related to the higher sensitivity of the MLD and transformation to the prescribed atmospheric forcing in the Labrador Sea. 摘要本研究关注大西洋经圈翻转环流 (AMOC) 对分辨率的敏感性, 比较了大气物理研究所自主发展的海洋环流模式LICOM (LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model) 不同分辨率版本对AMOC的模拟结果, 两个版本分辨率分别为1° × 1°和0.1° × 0.1°.LICOM高分辨版本模拟的AMOC强度和变率较低分辨率版本明显增加, 而且在拉布拉多海也模拟出了更深的混合层深度.在上层海洋, 高分辨率版本可以模拟比低分辨率版本强得多的边界流, 这导致更多高盐海水被输送到拉布拉多海, 增强了该区域的深对流.在高分辨率版本中, AMOC较强的变率与拉布拉多海混合层深度较高的变率和模式对大气强迫更敏感的响应有关. © 2025

关键词： Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Eddy-resolving ocean model North Atlantic Transformation

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Differentiated Cloud-Radiation Characteristics over East Asian Subtropical and Tropical Regions Revealed by CMIP6 Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2025年第1期31卷 43-63页

作者： WU Rui-xue LI Jian-dong XU Jian-jun ZHANG Yu LIAO Xiao-qing LIU Chun-lei DU Zhen-cai Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction College of Ocean and MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China CMA-GDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology South China Sea Institute of Marine MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100029 China Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University ShenzhenGuangdong 518120 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

Pronounced climatic differences occur over subtropical South China(SC)and tropical South China Sea(SCS)and understanding the key cloud-radiation characteristics is essential to simulating East Asian *** study investigated cloud fractions and cloud radiative effects(CREs)over SC and SCS simulated by CMIP6 atmospheric *** differences in cloud-radiation characteristics appeared over these two *** observations,considerable amounts of low-middle level clouds and cloud radiative cooling effect appeared over *** contrast,high clouds prevailed over SCS,where longwave and shortwave CREs offset each other,resulting in a weaker net cloud radiative effect(NCRE).The models underestimated NCRE over SC mainly due to weaker shortwave CRE and less cloud ***,most models overestimated NCRE over SCS because of stronger shortwave CRE and weaker longwave *** CREs were closely linked to their dominant cloud *** observations and simulations showed a negative spatial correlation between total(low)cloud fraction and shortwave CRE over SC,especially in winter,and exhibited a positive correlation between high cloud fraction and longwave CRE over these two *** with SCS,most models overestimated the spatial correlation between low(high)cloud fraction and SWCRE(LWCRE)over SC,with larger bias ranges among models,indicating the exaggerated cloud radiative cooling(warming)effect caused by low(high)***,most models struggled to describe regional ascent and its connection with CREs over SC while they can better reproduce these connections over *** study further suggests that reasonable circulation conditions are crucial to simulating well cloud-radiation characteristics over the East Asian regions.

关键词： cloud fraction cloud radiative effect CMIP6 model South China South China Sea

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Rotational Flow Dominates Abrupt Seasonal Change in Zonally Asymmetric Tropical Meridional Circulation

arXiv

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arXiv 2025年

作者： Yao, Wuqiushi Lu, Jianhua Liu, Yimin Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Zhuhai China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The seasonality of the tropical meridional circulation evolves differently across different regions, governs the onset and retreat of monsoons and migration of tropical precipitation, thereby influencing agricultural productivity and disaster preparedness in the tropics and subtropics. By defining a pseudo meridional overturning streamfunction (Ψpseudo) and defining a new vector-type, dual-component index (ASCI), we diagnose zonally asymmetric abrupt seasonal change (ASC) of tropical meridional circulation. Ψpseudo converges to traditional, meridional overturning streamfunction (Ψm) after being averaged over a zonal circle around any latitude. By applying the Helmholtz decomposition to horizontal velocity fields so as to decompose Ψpseudo into rotational and divergent components, we quantitatively compare the contributions of horizontally rotational and divergent flows to the abrupt seasonal change. We find that the zonal sectors associated with strong deep convection exhibit the most pronounced ASC of tropical meridional circulation, and all of subregions exhibiting ASC contain landmass with low heat inertia. Particularly, in contrast to the case of zonally symmetric Hadley cell, rotational flow, rather than the thermal-direct divergent flow, dominates the zonally asymmetric ASC in the tropics, although the divergent flow also contributes to the ASC over the zonal sectors associated with deep convection. We suggest that the interplay between tropical Rossby-type eddies with extratropical eddies and tropical circulation is essential to the zonally asymmetric ASC of tropical Hadley circulation. © 2025, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： Rotational flow

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Estimation of history moonquakes in Finsen crater from boulder tracks

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Acta Geophysica Sinica 2025年第4期68卷 1221-1233页

作者： Tao, Sha Zhu, BoJing Shi, YaoLin College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China Yunnan Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming650216 China Center for Astronomical Mega-Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100012 China

High-resolution images taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) show the existence of a large number of boulder tracks within the Finsen crater. Current research suggests that shallow moonquakes and meteorite impacts are likely to be the cause of boulder falls. This paper simulates the process of boulder rolling down a slope based on a simplified model, and provides the critical Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) required for boulder to start slope rolling under different conditions. The results show that some boulders will roll along the slope in one or more seismic wave periods. In this case, the critical PGA of the seismic wave required for the occurrence of the boulder slope rolling is related to the size of the boulder, the slope at the initial position, the dominant period of the seismic wave and the ratio of the horizontal and vertical peak ground acceleration. In other cases, the boulders may start jump rolling. Using high-resolution images taken by LRO to determine how the boulders fell, we can estimate the lower limit of the magnitude of moonquakes in this area. This paper provides the lower limit of the moonquake magnitude required for the boulders to start slope rolling under different conditions. A preliminary estimate of the lower limit of historical moonquake magnitude in the Finsen crater is made. © 2025 Editorial Office of Chinese Journal of Geophysics. All rights reserved.

关键词： earthquakes

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Air–sea interactions amplified by tropical cyclones break the South China Sea summer monsoon

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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2025年第1期8卷 1-8页

作者： Bi, Minghao Xu, Ke Lu, Riyu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Summer monsoon breaks can have far-reaching impacts by triggering abnormal weather both locally and remotely. However, their formation mechanisms remain incompletely understood, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) widely recognized as a primary driver. This study investigates South China Sea monsoon break events and finds that 72.9% originate from the Philippine Sea, associated with ISOs, while the residual 27.1% are locally generated, which have yet to be elucidated previously. Our results suggest that these locally generated events are often preceded by anomalously active tropical cyclones, which amplify in situ air–sea interaction, inducing SST cooling that increases large-scale atmospheric stability, thereby promoting monsoon break establishment. Moreover, differing from ISO-related monsoon breaks that increase precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley, locally generated breaks induce significant warming over South China. The diverse mechanisms and climate impacts of monsoon breaks revealed in this study may provide new insights for further improvement of subseasonal predictions. © The Author(s) 2025.

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Spring Rapid Temperature Variability in Southern China: Characteristics, Decadal Trend and Associated Climate Impacts on Crop Yield

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International Journal of Climatology 2025年

作者： Yang, Xianke Zhang, Yixuan Tang, Haosu Huang, Ping Ling, Xiaoxia Peng, Shaobing Xiong, Dongliang MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River College of Plant Science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural University Hubei China Climate Center of Hubei Province Hubei Meteorological Bureau Hubei China Department of Geography University of Sheffield Sheffield United Kingdom Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Climate-related risks are shaped not only by changes in mean temperatures, but also by temperature variability, which raises the likelihood of extreme weather events with profound impacts on society and ecosystems. Previous studies have documented contrasting seasonal trend differences in summer and winter temperature variability across most land areas. However, spring—a phenologically sensitive season for agricultural systems—has received limited attention for its temperature variability. Focusing on the major rice-growing regions in southern China, this study employs three indices—daily temperature standard deviation (STD), day-to-day temperature variability (DTD) and rapid cooling events (RCE)—to analyse the decadal trends and causes of spring temperature variability and assess its climate effects on rice yield anomalies. Our results reveal decadal trends in the spatial distribution of temperature variability, with increasing frequency and intensity in the Yangtze River Basin and Yunnan Province, and a decreasing trend across much of South China, closely following regional climatological patterns. Overall, the frequency and intensity of RCE trend exhibit a "strong gets weaker, weak gets stronger" pattern, likely linked to increased STD trends caused by spatial non-uniformity of warming. Through a multiple regression statistical model employing dominance analysis, we find that climate factors, including both mean climate and climate variability, explained 19%–45% of the variance in provincial rice yield anomalies, with up to 13% of the explained variance attributable to spring climate factors related to temperature variability. This study underscores the critical role of spring temperature variability in climate resilience, highlights the urgent need to enhance the adaptability of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. © 2025 Royal Meteorological Society.

关键词： Logistic regression

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Thermal Evolution Controls the Pore Structure of Deformed Shale in Southern North China Basin

SSRN

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SSRN 2025年

作者： Wang, Peng Ju, Yiwen Yao, Yanbin Li, Yong Xiao, Lei Wang, Wei Gao, Jian Chen, Renzhe Guan, Peiyun Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China School of Energy Resources China University of Geosciences Beijing100083 China State Key Laboratory Coal Resources and Safe Mining China University of Mining and Technology Beijing100049 China

The porosity characteristics of tectonically deformed shale are generally considered to be primarily governed by deformation intensity, often overlooking the influence of thermal evolution. This study examines the effects and mechanisms of thermal evolution on the pore structure of deformed shale from the Huaibei mining area in the southern North China Craton. Utilizing core sample observations, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, high-pressure mercury intrusion, low-temperature nitrogen adsorption, carbon dioxide adsorption, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, we found that the pore structure predominantly consists of micropores and transitional pores, with a limited presence of mesopores and macropores, as well as extensive microfractures. The results indicate that pore characteristics are significantly influenced by thermal evolution;as thermal maturation progresses, the total porosity, micropore count, and transitional pore count increase, leading to an enlarged specific surface area, more complex pore architecture, and enhanced connectivity. This enhancement arises from the thermal degradation of macromolecular structures in shale, where hydrocarbon and inorganic gas exsolution generates organic matter-derived pores, primarily micropores, while macromolecular shrinkage creates transitional pores smaller than 20 nm. Importantly, tectonic deformation occurs prior to the peak of hydrocarbon generation, allowing for the continued formation and retention of pores after hydrocarbon production. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

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The key role of abnormal Vortex Street-like system in the Tibetan plateau’s wake in modulating extreme June-July rainfall events over Eastern China (2020 and 2024)

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Climate Dynamics 2025年第5期63卷 1-16页

作者： Liu, Qi Fu, Congbin Xu, Zhongfeng School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210023 China Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change Nanjing University Nanjing 210023 China Institute for Climate and Global Change Research Nanjing University Nanjing 210023 China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Eastern China has frequently experienced extreme June-July rainfall events, such as those in June–July 2020 and June–July 2024, which led to severe flooding, resulting in significant economic losses and losses of life. Previous studies have explored the event’s causes. Our research indicates that these rainfall events are significantly influenced by a Vortex Street-Like system in the Tibetan Plateau’s wake (TPVSL, a phenomenon in the textbook). Using daily reanalysis and precipitation observation data, we examined the anomalous circulation associated with extreme rainfall events from the perspective of the TPVSL. Our findings reveal that the TPVSL provided a background field for ~ 80% of the rainfall during these events. In both events, the TPVSL intensity exhibited abnormal enhancement, which was related to the abnormally strong upstream westerly. However, notable differences were observed between the two events, the propagating line of the TPVSL exhibited slower northward movement and an almost east-west orientation in June-July 2020. In contrast, the north-south latitudinal change in the propagating line of the TPVSL was near normal in June-July 2024, with the line oriented southwest-northeast. These differences were related to abnormal activities in the downstream westerly belt and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Furthermore, during both events, the vortex propagation speed and shedding period remained close to normal levels. Our study provides new insight into East Asian summer climate anomalies by examining vortex street dynamics and highlights the importance of understanding TPVSL to mitigate flood disasters. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.

关键词： Eastern China June-July rainfall Southwest China vortex Tibetan Plateau Vortex street-like system

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