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Past warm intervals inform the future South Asian summer monsoon

Nature 2025年第8063期641卷 653-659页

作者： Linqiang He Tianjun Zhou Zhun Guo State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

In the future, monsoon rainfall over densely populated South Asia is expected to increase, even as monsoon circulation weakens1,2,3. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and a strengthening of monsoon circulation4,5,6, posing a challenge to understanding the response of the South Asian summer monsoon to warming. Here we show consistent South Asian summer monsoon changes in the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene and future scenarios, characterized by an overall increase in monsoon rainfall, a weakening of the monsoon trough-like circulation over the Bay of Bengal and a strengthening of the monsoon circulation over the northern Arabian Sea, as revealed by a compilation of proxy records and climate simulations. Increased monsoon rainfall is thermodynamically dominated by atmospheric moisture following the rich-get-richer paradigm, and dynamically dominated by the monsoon circulation driven by the enhanced land warming in subtropical western Eurasia and northern Africa. The coherent response of monsoon dynamics across warm climates reconciles past strengthening with future weakening, reinforcing confidence in future projections. Further prediction of South Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall by physics-based regression models using past information agrees well with climate model projections, with spatial correlation coefficients of approximately 0.8 and 0.7 under the high-emissions scenario. These findings underscore the promising potential of past analogues, bolstered by palaeoclimate reconstruction, in improving future South Asian summer monsoon projections.

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Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第12期35卷 1491-1504页

作者： Quanjia ZHONG Lifeng ZHANG Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING Jie FENG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense Technology College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal University School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma

In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning *** results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 *** predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,*** predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely *** more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and ***,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently *** work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.

关键词： predictability tropical cyclone tracks nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

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Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent and Quantification of Local Predictability

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Chinese Physics Letters 2008年第5期25卷 1919-1922页

作者：丁瑞强李建平 HA Kyung-Ja State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Division of Earth Environmental ~System Pusan National University Busan 609- 735 Korea

Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent （NLLE） is applied to quantitatively determine the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. As an example, we find that the local predictability limit of Henon attractor varies considerably with time, and some underlying phase-spatial structure does not appear. The local predictability limit of initially adjacent points in phase space may be completely different. This will cause difficulties in making the long-time analogue forecast.

关键词： ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY

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Experimental deformation of shales at elevated temperature and pressure:Pore-crack system evolution and its effects on shale gas reservoirs

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Petroleum Science 2024年第6期21卷 3754-3773页

作者： Yi-Wen Ju Xin-Gao Hou Kui Han Yu Song Lei Xiao Cheng Huang Hong-Jian Zhu Li-Ru Tao Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary SciencesUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China Key Laboratory of Earth Exploration and Information Technique Ministry of EducationCollege of GeophysicsChengdu University of TechnologyChengdu610059SichuanChina Key Laboratory of Coalbed Methane Resource&Reservoir Formation Process Ministry of EducationSchool of Resources&Earth ScienceChina University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhou221116JiangsuChina

Although many studies based on naturally deformed samples have been carried out to investigate the pore-crack characteristics of shales,studies based on high temperature(T)and high pressure(P)deformation experiments,which can exclude sample heterogeneity factors,simulate deep T-P conditions,and generate a continuous deformation sequence,are still *** this study,shales with different deformation levels are generated by triaxial compression experiments,and methods including scanning electron microscopy,mercury injection,and gas sorption are utilized to characterize their influence factors and pore-crack *** indicate that T is the primary factor influencing shale deformation when P is low,while P is dominant under high P *** T<90℃ and P<60 MPa,shales undergo brittle deformation and their macropores decrease due to the compaction of primary pores,while mesopores increase because of the interconnection of *** 90℃200℃ and P>110 MPa,shales are subjected to ductile deformation,and their micro-and mesopores drop significantly due to the intense compaction in the matrix while macropores continuously increase with crack *** permeability of shale increases with the degree of deformation and ductile material contents are predicted to be a key factor determining whether open microcracks can be preserved after ductile *** account for these experimental results,an ideal model of micro pore-crack system evolution in deformed shales is further proposed,which can provide guidance for the exploration of shale gas resources in the deep or structurally complex zones.

关键词： Shale Deformation experiment Microscopic structure Pore-crack system Shale gas reservoir

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Water Vapor and Cloud Radiative Forcings over the Pacific Ocean Simulated by the LASG/IAP AGCM:Sensitivity to Convection Schemes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第1期28卷 80-98页

作者：吴春强周天军孙德征包庆 The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Cooperative Institute for Environmental Studies/University of Colorado Earth System Research Laboratory/NOAA The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences andGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Characteristics of the total clear-sky greenhouse effect （GA） and cloud radiative forcings （CRFs）, along with the radiative-related water vapor and cloud properties simulated by the Spectral Atmospheric Model developed by LASGIAP （SAMIL） are evaluated. Impacts of the convection scheme on the simulation of CRFs are discussed by using two AMIP （Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project） type simulations employing different convection schemes： the new Zhang-McFarlane （NZH） and Tiedtke （TDK） convection schemes. It shows that both the climatological GA and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, both in terms of spatial pattern and magnitude. The impact of the convection scheme on GA is not significant. The climatological longwave CRF （LWCRF） and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, but with a prominently weaker magnitude. The simulation of the climatology （response） of LWCRF in the NZH （TDK） run is slightly more realistic than in the TDK （NZH） simulation, indicating significant impacts of the convection scheme. The shortwave CRF （SWCRF） shows large biases in both spatial pattern and magnitude, and the results from the TDK run are better than those from the NZH run. A spuriously excessive negative climatological SWCRF over the southeastern Pacific and an insufficient response of SWCRF to El Nio warming over the tropical Pacific are seen in the NZH run. These two biases are alleviated in the TDK run, since it produces vigorous convection, which is related to the low threshold for convection to take place. Also, impacts of the convection scheme on the cloud profile are discussed.

关键词： SAMIL convection scheme cloud radiative forcing greenhouse effect

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Learning to Infer Weather States Using Partial Observations

Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Comput...

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Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation 2025年第1期2卷

作者： Jie Chao Baoxiang Pan Quanliang Chen Shangshang Yang Jingnan Wang Congyi Nai Yue Zheng Xichen Li Huiling Yuan Xi Chen Bo Lu Ziniu Xiao National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science Beijing China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu China Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing China College of Computer National University of Defense Technology Hunan China Clustertech LTD Hong Kong China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Accurate state estimation of the high-dimensional, chaotic earth's atmosphere marks a Sisyphean task, yet is indispensable for initiating weather forecasts and gauging climate variability. While much effort is devoted to assimilating observations and forecasts to infer weather states, the inherent low-dimensional statistical structure in atmospheric circulation, shaped by geophysical laws and geographic boundaries, is underutilized as an informative prior for state inference, or as reference for assessing representative of existing observations and planning new ones. We realize these potential by learning climatological distribution from climate reanalysis/simulation, using a deep generative model. For a case study of estimating 2 m temperature spatial patterns, the learned distribution faithfully reproduces climatology statistics. A combination of the learned climatological prior with few station observations yields strong posterior of spatial pattern estimates, which are spatially coherent, faithful and adaptive to observational constraints, and uncertainty-aware. This allows us to evaluate each observation's value in reducing pattern estimation uncertainty, and guide optimal observation network design by pinpointing the most informative sites. Our study showcases how generative models can extract and utilize information produced in the chaotic evolution of climate system. Deep generative model enables accurate spatial interpolation of weather variables from sparse observations The generative model produces spatially coherent and uncertainty-aware estimates, effectively constrained by observational data The approach provides a framework to quantify observation impact on uncertainty reduction, enabling optimization of observation networks Accurate estimation of weather conditions across a large area is crucial but challenging due to the complex and chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Traditional methods rely on combining observations with forecasts, which can be comp

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Using a skillful statistical model to predict September sea ice covering Arctic shipping routes

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2020年第5期39卷 11-25页

作者： Sha Li Muyin Wang Wenyu Huang Shiming Xu Bin Wang Yuqi Bai Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of WashingtonSeattle WA98195USA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattle WA98115USA State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration,both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the ***,a novel data-driven method,the causal effect networks algorithm,is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice *** whole study area was also divided into two parts:the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal *** forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE)and southern region(SSIE)at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65%and 79%of the variances,respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE)is limited at a lead time of 1 *** lead times of 1–4 months,local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection *** the lead time is more than 4 months,the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and *** suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.

关键词： regional sea ice Arctic shipping routes machine learning statistical model predictions

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Influence of the Preceding Austral Summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on the Amplitude of ENSO Decay

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第11期34卷 1358-1379页

作者： Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technologyqingdao 266237China Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technologychengdu 610103China

There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemi- sphere Annular Mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. This study shows that the austral summer （December-January-February; DJF） SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn （March-April-May; MAM）. The mechanisms associated with this SAM-ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows： The SAM is positively （negatively） correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle （high） latitudes. This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole （SOD）. The DJF SOD, caused by the DJF SAM, could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation, including trade winds, over the Nifio3.4 area. Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Nifio3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback, which eventually results in a cooling （warming） over the Nifio3.4 area followed by the positive （negative） DJF SAM.

关键词： Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode ENSO Southern Ocean Dipole

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application of Raman Spectroscopy in Oil and Gas Geological Research

Journal of GeoEnergy

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Journal of GeoEnergy 2025年第1期2025卷

作者： Yu Lin Hongjian Zhu Hongye Feng Yiwen Ju Yanjun Lu Yanyan Pan Ci Song School of Vehicles and Energy Yanshan University Qinhuangdao 066000 China *** Hebei Engineering Research Center for Low Carbon Development and Resource Utilization of Fossil Energy Sources Qinhuangdao 066000 China Institute of Mineral Resources Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Beijing 100037 China *** National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408 China ***

Raman spectroscopy has shown considerable potential in the study of organic macerals in source rocks due to its significant benefits of accuracy, efficiency, and in situ nondestructive detection. This technology successfully applies to the reconstruction of paleotemperature and pressure environments, the quantitative evaluation of organic matter maturity, and the construction of a carbon Raman spectroscopy geothermometer model. The present study systematically examines the intrinsic relationship and the application between Raman parameters and material composition and molecular structure, as well as the application, challenges, and future directions of Raman spectroscopy in the current research field of source rock evaluation.

关键词： fluid inclusion metamorphic geothermometer organic matter maturity Raman spectroscopy

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Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第7期35卷 881-895页

作者： Fei ZHENG Jianping LI Fred KUCHARSKI Ruiqiang DING Ting LIU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Earth System Physics Section Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Department of MeteorologyKing Abdulaziz University Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography

The variability in the Southern Ocean（SO） sea surface temperature（SST） has drawn increased attention due to its unique physical features; therefore, the temporal characteristics of the SO SST anomalies（SSTA） and their influence on extratropical atmospheric circulation are addressed in this study. Results from empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the principal mode of the SO SSTA exhibits a dipole-like structure, suggesting a negative correlation between the SSTA in the middle and high latitudes, which is referred to as the SO Dipole（SOD） in this study. The SOD features strong zonal symmetry, and could reflect more than 50% of total zonal-mean SSTA variability. We find that stronger（weaker） Subantarctic and Antarctic polar fronts are related to the positive（negative） phases of the SOD index, as well as the primary variability of the large-scale SO SSTA meridional gradient. During December–January–February, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet shift toward the Antarctic due to changes in the SSTA that could be associated with a positive phase of the SOD, and are also accompanied by a poleward shift of the subtropical jet. During June–July–August, in association with a positive SOD, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet are strengthened, accompanied by a strengthened subtropical jet. These seasonal differences are linked to the differences in the configuration of the polar jet and the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词： extratropical sea surface temperature air–sea interaction Southern Annular Mode

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