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Impacts of major volcanic eruptions over the past two millennia on both global and Chinese climates:A review

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 61-78页

作者： Weiyi SUN Deliang CHEN Guonian LÜ Liang NING Chaochao GAO Renhe ZHANG Bin WANG Jian LIU Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of EducationState Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu ProvinceJiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and ApplicationSchool of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden College of Environmental and Resource Science Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200437China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96825USA Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems School of Mathematical ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China

Major volcanic eruptions(MVEs)have attracted increasing attention from the scientific *** studies have explored the climatic impact of MVEs over the past two ***,proxy-based reconstructions and climate model simulations indicate divergent responses of global and China’s regional climates to ***,we used multiple data from observations,reconstructions,simulations,and assimilations to summarize the historical facts of MVEs,the characteristics and mechanisms of their climatic impact,and directions for future *** reviewed volcanic datasets and determined intensive MVE periods;these periods corresponded to the years 530–700,1200‒1460,and 1600‒1840 *** tropical MVEs,a substantial cooling effect is observed throughout the globe and China on the interannual-interdecadal time scales but an inconsistent cooling magnitude is detected between reconstructions and *** the first summer after tropical MVEs,a decrease in global and monsoonal precipitation is *** reconstructions and simulations,an increased precipitation is seen for the Yangtze River Basin,while large uncertainties in precipitation changes are present for other regions of *** drought can be induced by frequent eruptions and volcanism superimposed on low solar irradiation and internal *** affect climate directly through the radiative effect and indirectly by modulating internal variability,such as the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).However,changes in the phase,amplitude,and periodicity of ENSO and AMO after MVEs and the associated mechanisms remain controversial,which could account for model-reconstruction ***,other internal variability,uncertainties in reconstruction methods and aerosol‒climate models,and climate background may also induce model-reconstruction *** gaps and directions for future research are also discussed.

关键词： Major volcanic eruption climate variability Mechanism Past two millennia Internal variability

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Multi-centennial ENSO-like variability response to solar activity during the holocene

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climate DYNAMICS 2024年第7期62卷 6189-6201页

作者： Sun, Weiyi Ma, Yanan Liu, Jian Chen, Deliang Ning, Liang Yan, Mi Chen, Kefan Nanjing Normal Univ Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm Sch Geog SciKey Lab Virtual Geog EnvironmMinist Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Math Sci Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Com Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao 266237 Peoples R China Univ Gothenburg Dept Earth Sci Reg Climate Grp S-40530 Gothenburg Sweden

Previous reconstructions suggest a possible correlation between solar and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the centennial-millennial time scales, but the mechanism remains controversial. This study conducts Holocene transient simulations and finds a significant 350-500-year cycle of ENSO-like variability during the mid-late Holocene under solar activity forcing, supported by multiple reconstructions. This multi-centennial ENSO-like variability is caused by the solar-forced low-latitude process, not the high-latitude process or internal variability. When solar radiation increases, the subtropical Asian continent-Indian ocean thermal contrast is enhanced, increasing precipitation over the India and Bay of Bengal, which generates easterly anomaly over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Increased solar radiation also enhances the evaporation in the cloud-free regions of western North and South Pacific, and the moisture is transported to the Maritime Continent by easterly. This increases precipitation there and strengthens the easterly anomaly over the equatorial western Pacific, which triggers the La Nina-like state. The leading coupling process for the development of La Nina-like state is zonal advective and upwelling feedback, and poleward heat advection further amplifies the equatorial eastern Pacific cooling. Findings from this study suggests that a centennial-scale El Nino-like condition might occur under solar forcings if the forecast predicts a solar minimum at the end of the 21st century.

关键词： Solar activity Holocene Centennial time scale El nino-southern oscillation Transient simulation

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Centennial Variation and Mechanism of the Extreme High Temperatures in Summer over China during the Holocene Forced by Total Solar Irradiance

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ATMOSPHERE 2023年第8期14卷 1207-1207页

作者： Liu, Lu Sun, Weiyi Liu, Jian Wan, Lingfeng Nanjing Normal Univ Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou Sch Geog SciState Key Lab Cultivat Base Geog Envi Key Lab Virtual Geog EnvironmMinist Educ Nanjing 210024 Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Math Sci Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Com Nanjing 210024 Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao 266100 Peoples R China Ocean Univ China Inst Adv Ocean Study IAOS Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S Phys Oceanog Lab POL Qingdao 266100 Peoples R China

Under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate have increased, especially extreme high temperatures. In order to correctly predict the changes in the extreme high temperatures in summer in China in this century, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the extreme high temperatures in summer on the centennial timescale. Many researchers have explored the mechanism of the influences of the variability of the solar cycle on climate change, while the mechanism of the influences of the centennial variation of solar activity on climate change remains elusive. Here, we use the outputs from the Control (CTRL) experiment, Total solar irradiance and Orbital (TSI_ORB) experiment, and Orbital (ORB) experiment from Nanjing Normal University-Holocene (NNU-Hol) experiments to study the extreme high temperatures in summer in China during the Holocene. On the basis of verifying the consistency of the centennial period between the TSI (TSI_ORB minus ORB plus CTRL) experiment and the reconstructed data, we compared the centennial variation characteristics of the summer extreme high temperature in the CTRL experiment and the TSI experiment. It shows that under the modulation of total solar irradiance, the centennial spatial pattern of the summer extreme high temperatures changed from dipole mode to uniform mode, with 300-year and 500-year periodicity, compared to the influence of only internal variability. On the centennial time scale, the greatest difference is located in northeast China. The subsidence movement and the reduction of cloud cover caused by the anticyclone under the control of high-pressure lead to the increase of downward solar radiation, thus making a positive center is showed in northeast China on the impacts of total solar irradiance. Furthermore, the center of the Rossby wave train in the barotropic structure of the upper circulation related to the summer extreme high temperat

关键词： extreme high temperature holocene centennial variation total solar irradiance climate simulation

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Influence and mechanism of solar radiation intensity on the interdecadal variability of strong Meiyu events during historical periods

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第2期66卷 408-416页

作者： Liulin WANG Liang NING Kefan CHEN Mi YAN Jian LIU Zhengyu LIU Yanmin QIN Jiao XUE Chuxin LI Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education/State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application/School of GeographyNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing210023China Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao266237China Climate System Research Center Department of GeosciencesUniversity of MassachusettsAmherst01003USA State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an710061China Department of Geography The Ohio State UniversityColumbusOH43210USA

Most recent studies on Meiyu over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR)have focused on its interannual variability or the mechanism of certain abnormal *** influence and physical mechanism of solar radiation intensity on the interdecadal frequency of strong Meiyu events over the MLRYR during historical periods were investigated using reconstructed precipitation data,reconstructed solar radiation data,and model simulation ***,according to the solar radiation intensity,the Ming and Qing Dynasties(1470-1850)were divided into three periods of strong solar radiation and three periods of weak solar *** was found that during the periods of strong solar radiation,the frequency of strong Meiyu events was significantly higher than that during the periods of weak solar radiation in the reconstructed precipitation data and model *** analyses show that during the periods of strong solar radiation,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)is stronger,and the blocking highs over the middle-high-latitudes are also stronger,which is conducive to the continuous convergence of the southward cold air and the northward warm and humid air flow at the ***,a circulation spatial pattern conducive to the occurrence of strong Meiyu events is then *** probability distributions of precipitation also show that,during periods of strong solar radiation,changes in circulation patterns cause the probability distribution of precipitation to shift significantly to the right,increasing the probability of strong Meiyu events occurring on the right side of the probability distribution.

关键词： Ming Dynasty Historical flood Strong Meiyu events Solar radiation CESM-LME

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Holocene Multi-Centennial Variations of the Asian Summer Monsoon Triggered by Solar Activity

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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2022年第13期49卷 e2022GL098625-e2022GL098625页

作者： Sun, Weiyi Liu, Jian Wang, Bin Chen, Deliang Wan, Lingfeng Wang, Jing Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Geog SciKey Lab Virtual Geog EnvironmMinist Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso State Key Lab Cultivat Base Geog Environm Evolut Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Math Sci Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Co Nanjing Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao Peoples R China Univ Hawaii Manoa Dept Atmospher Sci Honolulu HI 96822 USA Univ Hawaii Manoa Atmosphere Ocean Res Ctr Honolulu HI 96822 USA Univ Gothenburg Dept Earth Sci Reg Climate Grp Gothenburg Sweden Ocean Univ China Inst Adv Ocean Study Qingdao Peoples R China

Solar activity affects Asian summer monsoon (ASM) at various time scales. However, it remains unknown if and how solar activity can influence ASM on the centennial time scale. Using the Community Earth System Model, we conduct a solar activity forced Holocene transient simulation with an acceleration factor of 10 and show that during the middle-late Holocene ASM precipitation exhibits a significant 300-600-year periodicity under solar forcing. This model-produced multi-centennial variation is also suggested by proxy data. The leading mode of the multi-centennial ASM variation shows a "wet tropics-dry subtropics" pattern, which lags the corresponding solar activity by about a quarter cycle. The western North Pacific (WNP) circulation system is responsible for the multi-centennial ASM variation, through enhancing the climatological south Asia-WNP monsoon trough. We suggest that solar activity modulates the zonal SST gradients of the tropical Pacific, inducing the anomalous WNP cyclone and enhancing ASM precipitation in a delayed mode.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon Holocene solar activity centennial variability paleoclimate modeling

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Comparison of climate responses to orbital forcing at different latitudes during the Holocene

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QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL 2022年 622卷 65-76页

作者： Jing, Yunqing Liu, Jian Wan, Lingfeng Nanjing Normal Univ Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou Sch Geog Sci Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm Minist Educ Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Math Sci Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Com Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao 266237 Shandong Peoples R China

climate variability during the Holocene has become a widespread concern, and recent studies have compared the annual mean climate variability of the orbital forcing in the Holocene. Little is known about the response of the JJA (June to August) and DJF (December to February) mean surface temperature and precipitation to orbital forcing at different latitudes. In this study, using the outputs of the climatic sensitivity experiments of orbital forcing in models (NNU and TraCE), we compared the linear trends and spatial patterns of JJA and DJF mean surface temperature and precipitation at different latitudes. In addition, we compared the results of the models with the proxy data. The results of the models suggest that the decreased linear trends of JJA mean surface temperature occur in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH-MHL) and tropics, but in the middle and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH-MHL), which show increasing trends. The increased linear trends of the DJF mean surface temperature appeared in the NH-MHL, tropics, and SH-MHL. Moreover, the annual mean surface temperature shows increasing trends in the tropics and SH-MHL, and the decreasing trends of annual mean surface temperature arise in the NH-MHL. As for the results of precipitation, the linear trends of JJA and DJF mean precipitation in the low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH-LL) show decreasing trends. In the low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH-LL), the JJA mean precipitation shows increasing trends, whereas the DJF results increase first then decrease. By comparing the temperature proxies, we found that simulation results appear in agreement with most temperature proxies, however, they do not match few temperature reconstructions. Furthermore, the trends of JJA and annual mean temperature in the tropics cannot reproduce the reconstructed temperature. We note that the results of NNU are more similar to the temperature reconstructions than those of t

关键词： Insolation Temperature Precipitation Paleoclimate simulation Orbital forcing

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Abrupt Heinrich Stadial 1 cooling missing in Greenland oxygen isotopes

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SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021年第25期7卷 1007-1007页

作者： He, Chengfei Liu, Zhengyu Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhu, Chenyu Tomas, Robert Buizert, Christo Severinghaus, Jeffrey P. Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Coll Atmospher Sci Nanjing Peoples R China Ohio State Univ Dept Geog Columbus OH 43210 USA Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Ocean Climate Isotope Modeling Qingdao Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Coll Geog Sci Nanjing Peoples R China Natl Ctr Atmospher Res Climate & Global Dynam Lab Boulder CO 80305 USA Ocean Univ China Key Lab Phys Oceanog Qingdao Peoples R China Oregon State Univ Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci Corvallis OR 97331 USA Univ Calif San Diego Scripps Inst Oceanog La Jolla CA 92037 USA

Abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation have been well preserved in proxy records across the globe. However, one long-standing puzzle is the apparent absence of the onset of the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) cold event around 18 ka in Greenland ice core oxygen isotope delta O-18 records, inconsistent with other proxies. Here, combining proxy records with an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation, we propose that a substantial HS1 cooling onset did indeed occur over the Arctic in winter. However, this cooling signal in the depleted oxygen isotopic composition is completely compensated by the enrichment because of the loss of winter precipitation in response to sea ice expansion associated with AMOC slowdown during extreme glacial climate. In contrast, the Arctic summer warmed during HS1 and YD because of increased insolation and greenhouse gases, consistent with snowline reconstructions. Our work suggests that Greenland delta O-18 may substantially underestimate temperature variability during cold glacial conditions.

关键词： Sea ice

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An Analog Offline EnKF for Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

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JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 2022年第5期14卷 e2021MS002674-e2021MS002674页

作者： Sun, Haohao Lei, Lili Liu, Zhengyu Ning, Liang Tan, Zhe-Min Nanjing Univ Key Lab Mesoscale Severe Weather Minist Educ Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Sch Atmospher Sci Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Frontiers Sci Ctr Crit Earth Mat Cycling Nanjing Peoples R China Ohio State Univ Dept Geog Columbus OH 43210 USA Nanjing Normal Univ Natl Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm Minist Educ Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Geog Nanjing Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao Peoples R China

An analog offline ensemble Kalman filter (AOEnKF) is proposed, which constructs ensemble priors from a control climate simulation for each assimilation time based on an analog criterion using proxy observations. Even though AOEnKF is an offline scheme and is therefore computationally economical, it has the ability to capture "flow-dependent" background error covariances that help spread observation information through climate fields. Extensive tests in the Lorenz05 model demonstrate that, compared to the online cycling EnKF (CEnKF), AOEnKF generates smaller posterior errors and requires much less computational cost. Compared to the commonly applied offline EnKF (OEnKF), AOEnKF has the advantages of having a more accurate prior ensemble mean and "flow-dependent" background error covariances, even though the assimilation time scale is beyond significant forecast skill of the climate model. With varying ensemble sizes, sample sizes, observation error covariances and observing networks, AOEnKFs generally produce statistically significant error reduction relative to OEnKF, especially for larger sample sizes, increased observation uncertainties and sparser observing networks. The AOEnKF can be applied based on either the error of state variables from observations (AOEnKF_E) or the spatial correlation of state variables with observations (AOEnKF_C), with generally comparable results.

关键词： paleoclimate data assimilation ensemble kalman filter analog ensemble offline assimilation

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Understanding global monsoon precipitation changes during the 8.2 ka event and the current warm period

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PALAEOGEOGRAPHY PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY PALAEOECOLOGY 2022年 586卷 110757-110757页

作者： He, Peng Liu, Jian Wang, Bin Sun, Weiyi Nanjing Normal Univ Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso Sch Geog Sci Minist EducKey Lab Virtual Geog EnvironmState K Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Math Sci Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Co Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao 266237 Peoples R China Univ Hawaii Dept Atmospher Sci Sch Ocean Earth Sci & Technol Honolulu HI 96822 USA Univ Hawaii Sch Ocean Earth Sci & Technol Int Pacific Res Ctr Honolulu HI 96822 USA Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Key Lab Meteorol Disaster Minist Educ Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Earth Syst Modeling Ctr Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China

Global monsoon (GM) precipitation has profound impacts on water resources, food security, and the livelihood of about two-thirds of the world's population. Understanding the contrasting changes of GM precipitation (GMP) during the 8.2 ka cold event and the present-day warm event helps better comprehend the common origin of the GMP change and its future projection. We analyzed a suite of transient climate evolutions (TraCE-21 ka simulation). We show that the simulated monsoon rainfall changes during the 8.2 ka abrupt cooling event are qualitatively consistent with the paleoclimate archive collected worldwide. The simulated Northern Hemisphere monsoon (NHM) precipitation significantly decreased by 12.4% per one degree of global mean temperature change (12.4%/degrees C) while the Southern Hemisphere monsoon (SHM) precipitation increased by 4.2%/degrees C. The cooling-induced suppressed upward motion plays a dominant role in reducing NHM precipitation, and the reduced moisture adds to the circulation effect, whereas the enhanced SHM precipitation is mainly due to the moisture increase. In the 8.2 ka event, the circulation response reinforces the moisture-induced drought over the NHM region, resulting in an excessive precipitation sensitivity to temperature change (12.4%/degrees C). In contrast, during the present warm period, the greenhouse warming-induced moisture and circulation effects cancel each other, resulting in a moderate sensitivity (1.8%/degrees C). Although meltwater and greenhouse gas forcings induce contrasting global temperature change patterns, the GMP changes are governed by common root causes: forced NH-SH thermal contrast, land-ocean thermal contrast, and the tropical SST gradients. The moisture change plays a crucial role in altering precipitation amount but not spatial distribution. We suggest that the external forcinginduced warming (cooling) pattern drives the circulation changes (dynamic effects), determining the spatial structure of the monsoon

关键词： Holocene 8 2 ka event Global monsoon precipitation TraCE-21 ka simulation External forcing Current warm period

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Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Response to External Forcing during the Past Two Millennia

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JOURNAL OF climate 2022年第24期35卷 4503-4515页

作者： Dai, Zhangqi Wang, Bin Zhu, Ling Liu, Jian Sun, Weiyi Li, Longhui Lu, Guonian Ning, Liang Yan, Mi Chen, Kefan Nanjing Normal Univ Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso Jiangsu Prov State Key Lab Cultivat Base Geog Env Minist EducKey Lab Virtual Geog Environm Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Geog Sci Nanjing Peoples R China Kunshan Lujia Senior High Sch Suzhou Peoples R China Univ Hawaii Manoa Dept Atmospher Sci & Atmosphere Ocean Res Ctr Honolulu HI USA Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Key Lab Meteorol Disaster Minist Educ Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Earth Syst Modeling Ctr Nanjing Peoples R China Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Math Sci Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Co Nanjing Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope Qingdao Peoples R China

Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a cornerstone for decadal prediction and profoundly influences regional and global climate variability, yet its fundamental drivers remain an issue for debate. Studies suggest that external forcing may have affected AMV during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1860). However, the detailed mechanism remains elusive, and the AMV's centennial to millennial variations over the past 2000 years have not yet been explored. We first show that proxy-data reconstructions and paleo-data assimilations suggest a significant 60-yr AMV during AD 1250-1860 but not during AD 1-1249. We then conducted a suite of experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to unravel the causes of the changing AMV property. The simulation results under all external forcings match the reconstructions reasonably well. We find that the significant 60-yr AMV during 1250-1860 arises predominantly from the volcano forcing variability. During the period 1-1249, the average volcanic eruption intensity is about half of the 1250-1860 intensity, and a 20-40-yr internal variability dominates the AMV. The volcanic radiative forcing during 1250-1860 amplifies AMV and shifts the internal variability peak from 20-40 years to 60 years. The volcano forcing prolongs AMV periodicity by sustaining Arctic cooling, delaying subpolar sea ice melting and atmospheric feedback to reduce surface evaporation. These slow-response processes over the subpolar North Atlantic results in a persisting reduction of sea surface salinity, weakening the Atlantic overturning circulation, and warm water transport from the subtropical North Atlantic. The results reveal the cause of the nonstationary AMV over the past two millennia and shed light on the AMV's response to external forcing. Significance StatementAMV plays an important role in the regional and global climate variability. The purpose of this study is to better understand the secular change of AMV during the past 2000 years and its r

关键词： North Atlantic ocean Volcanoes Atmosphere-ocean interaction Paleoclimate Multidecadal variability

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