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Probabilistic risk analysis of diesel power generators onboard ships

NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1999年第3期111卷 35-58页

作者： Ayyub, BM Karaszewski, ZJ Wade, M Bilal M. Ayyub.:is a Professor of Civil Enginnering and the Director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management at the University of Maryland (College Park). He is also a researcher and consultant in the areas of structural engineering inspection methods and practices reliability and risk analysis. He completed his B.S. degree in civil engineering in 1980 and completed both the M.S. (1981) and Ph.D. (1983) in civil engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Dr. Ayyub has an extensive background in uncertainty modeling and marine structural reliability marine structures uncertainty modeling and anaylsis and mathematical medeling using the theories of probability statistics and fuzzy sets. He has completed several research projects that were funded by the NSF USCG USN the USACE ASME and several engineering companies. Dr. Ayyub served the engineering community in various capacities through societies that include ASNE ASCE ASME SNAME IEEECS and NAFIPS. He is the authour and co-author of about 250 publications in journals and conference proceedings and reports. His publications include edited books textbooks and book chapters. Dr. Ayyub is the only double recipient of the ASNE “Jimmie” Hamilton Award for the best papers in the Naval Engineers Journal in 1985 and 1992. Also he received the ASCE “Outstanding Research Oriented Paper” in the Journal of Walter L. Huber Research Prize in 1997 and the K.S. Fu Award of NAFIPS in 1995. He is a registered Professional Engineer (PE) with the State of Maryland. Zbigniew J. Karaszewski:is the Associate Director of the University of Maryland's Center for Technology and Systems Management and technical director of the Center for Maritime Leadership. He is a Systems Engineering and Management Consultant specializing in life cycle system support business systems auditing and risk management and loss prevention. Mr. Karasezewski has 30 years of experience in the field of systems performance analysis and management as a practitioner and teacher

In this paper, a methodology and guidelines for applying risk methods in design and operation of maritime systems were developed and demonstrated using a case study of marine diesel generators. The methodology consists of several modules that include system definition based on functional and performance requirements, definition of dependencies among subsystems, data collection and reduction, reliability and risk analyses, and results reduction for use in decision analysis. The methodology was used to assess and analyze typical service diesel generators found onboard ships. The analysis included the generation of cut sets for the overall reliability of the system. The most likely failure scenarios were determined by demonstration as the failure of fuel supply components. The results are consistent with previous findings of the U.S. Coast Guard.

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ESTABLISHING THE FUNdAMENTALS OF A SURFACE SHIP SURVIVABILITY design dISCIPLINE

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1994年第1期106卷 71-74页

作者： BALL, RE CALVANO, CN Robert E. Ball:attended Northwestern University where he received BS and MS degrees in civil engineering in 1958 and 1959 and a Ph.D. in structural mechanics in 1962. From 1962 to 1967 he worked in the aerospace industry. In 1967 he joined the faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Monterey Ca. and is currently a professor in the department of aeronautics and astronautics. In 1976 Dr. Ball began developing an educational program in aircraft combat survivability at NPS. Approximately 3500 Navy Marine Army and Air Force officers DoD civilians and civilians from the US aircraft industry attended his NPS graduate level and short courses since 1977. He has conducted short courses for NATO and the governments of Canada and Greece. He has also developed similar graduate level courses at NPS in air defense lethality and surface ship combat survivability. He has conducted an extensive research program in survivability and lethality at NPS directing over 110 theses and in 1985 his 400 page textbook The Fundamentals of Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis and Designwas published by AIAA. He is a Fellow of AIAA. Charles N. Calvano:is a 1963 graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and a 1970 graduate of MIT with an MS in ocean engineering and a naval engineer's degree. His active duty Navy career spanned twenty-eight years culminating in assignments in the Naval Sea Systems Command as the director of the ship design group and as the director for ship concepts and technology. He joined the faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School in October 1991 and is developing and teaching the total ship systems engineering curriculum discussed in this paper. He is a member of ASNE and of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers.

This paper describes a conceptual structure of ship survivability definitions and concepts and deals with the need to incorporate a total-ship approach to surface ship combat survivability as part of the philosophy used to guide a ship's design. Included are: A discussion of the increasing emphasis placed on ship survivability during the ship system development process. definitions of the different aspects of ship survivability, in order to suggest a coordinated and coherent understanding of their relationships. A discussion of the value of making survivability considerations an integral part of the ship design philosophy, to ensure a requirements-based systems approach to all of the ship's required attributes, including survivability.

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ACQUISITION REFORM ANd BEST PROdUCT PROCUREMENT - AN ENGINEERING VIEW

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1994年第6期106卷 41-57页

作者： FISHER, dA SKOLNICK, A He has been involved with several weapon system developments. Among these were the Trident II fire control and navigation systems the BSY-I Anti-Submarine Warfare System and the Navy standard computers (UYK44 and EMSP). He served as manager of the Digital Circuits Engineering Branch and was then appointed as manager of the Automatic Test Equipment (ATE) Technology Division. As manager of the ATE Technology Division he was responsible for the SP-23 Fire Control System Support Project the SP-24 Navigation Project and the Fleet Progressive Maintenance Program (2M/ATE). This Division was responsible for selection and application of electronic product technology and for developing fleet test and repair techniques. He holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Evansville and is currently pursuing a Masters of Public Administration at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. Dr. Alfred Skolnick:retired from the Navy in 1983 with the rank of captain. He is president of System Science Consultants (SSC) specializing in strategic planning technical program definition technology assessment and engineering analyses on selected matters of national interest. Dr. Skolnick taught mathematics and management sciences at University of Virginia and Marymount University. He is adjunct faculty at Northern Virginia Community College. From 1985 to 1989 he was president of the American Society of Naval Engineers. In the Navy he served at Applied Physics Laboratory/The Johns Hopkins University then aboard USSBoston(CAG-1) and played leading roles in several weapon system developments inertial navigation (Polaris) deep submergence (DSRV) and advanced ship designs (SES). He later was director Combat System Integration Naval Sea Systems Command and head Combat Projects Naval Ship Engineering Center. In 1975 he became a major project manager and led the Navy's High Energy Lasers Program in 1981 he was assigned all Navy Directed Energy Weapons development efforts. He was vice president advanced tech

The military services are being moved in the direction of performance-based specifications and standards. They are being steered against dictating ''how to'' produce an item since such action forecloses on the ability to gain access to components or technology that may have a commercial equivalent. Why should the engineering community embrace the new approach? Aside from the obvious weight of it being approved policy, therefore currently mandated, it warrants examination because it is the correct approach at this time when applied to appropriate products. Military specifications and standards are to be displaced then, by acceptable alternative contractor design solutions. industry bidders will be allowed to propose the particular design details, permitting procurement flexibility by contractually citing only system level or interface requirements, both physical and functional. Hopefully, this can broaden the industrial base and increase competition with reduced costs to follow. Conceptually, the approach appears both performance-sensible and cost-attractive (there are, of course, consequent risks) but how does implementation proceed? Is it possible to pursue the goals envisioned along paths that are not in themselves experimental? Can the American postulate, minimal loss of life and limb to U.S. military people, continue to be honored? Experience and track record elsewhere imply encouraging possibilities in select situations-useful prospects are identified and discussed in practical terms.

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THE CALLING(SM) NETWORK - A GLOBAL WIRELESS COMMUNICATION-SYSTEM

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS 1994年第1期12卷 45-61页

作者： TUCK, EF PATTERSON, dP STUART, JR LAWRENCE, MH Calling Communications Corporation. 1900 West Garvey Ave South. Suite 200 West Covina CA 91790 USA. Chairman of Calling Communications Corporation. He is also the Managing Director of Kinship Venture Management Inc. the general partner of Kinship Partners 11 and a General Partner of Boundary the general partner of The Boundary Fund. As a venture capitalist he has founded or participated in founding several telecommunications companies including Calling Communications Corporation Magellan Systems Corporation manufactures of Global Positioning System receivers Applied Digital Access manufacturer of DS-3 test access and network performance monitoring equipment Endgate Technology Corporation specialists in satellite phased array antennas and Poynting Systems Corporation. now a division of Reliance Corporation manufacturers of fibre optic transport equipment. He was a founder of Kebby Microwave Corporation where he invented the first solid-state. frequency-modulated commercial microwave link system. The company was acquired by ITT Corporation where he rose to the position of V.P. and Technical Director of ITT North America Telecommunications Inc. Subsequently he was V.P. of Marketing and Engineering at American Telecommunications Inc. (ATC). He was founding Director of American Telecom Inc. a joint venture between ATC and Fujitsu and has served on more than 20 boards of directors including those of three public companies. He has authored articles on microwave engineering and telephone signalling and was a contributor to Reference Data For Radio Engineers. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri at Rolla where he was later awarded an honorary Professional degree and serves on its Academy of Electrical Engineering. Mr Tuck is a Senior Member of the IEEE a Fellow of the Institution of Engineers (Australia) a Professional Member of the AIAA and a registered professional engineer in three states. More than 25 years of experience in the telecommunications industry where he has been responsibl

There is a very large demand for basic telephone service in developing nations, and remote parts of industrialized nations, which cannot be met by conventional wireline and cellular systems. This is the world's largest unserved market. We describe a system which uses recent advances in active phased arrays, fast-packet switching technology, adaptive routeing, and light spacecraft technology, in part based on the work of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and on recently-declassified work done on the Strategic defense Initiative, to make it possible to address this market with a global telephone network based on a large low-Earth-orbit constellation of identical satellites. A telephone utility can use such a network to provide the same modern basic and enhanced telephone services offered by telephone utilities in the urban centres of fully-industrialized nations. Economies of scale permit capital and operating costs per subscriber low enough to provide a service to all subscribers, regardless of location, at prices comparable to the same services in urban areas of industrialized nations, while generating operating profits great enough to attract the capital needed for its construction. The bandwidth needed to support the capacity needed to gain these economies of scale requires that the system use K(alpha)-band frequencies. This choice of frequencies places unusual constraints on the network design, and in particular forces the use of a large number of satellites. Global demand for basic and enhanced telephone service is great enough to support at least three networks of the size described herein. The volume of advanced components, and services such as launch services, required to construct and replace these networks is sufficient to propel certain industries to market leadership positions in the early 21st Century.

关键词： LOW EARTH ORBIT SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS FAST PACKET SWITCHING EARTH FIXEd CELLS AdAPTIVE ROUTEING LIGHT SPACECRAFT K(A) BANd phASEd-ARRAY ANTENNAS

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ROLE OF SIMULATION IN RAPId PROTOTYPING FOR CONCEPT dEVELOPMENT

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1991年第3期103卷 204-211页

作者： KING, JF BARTON, dE J. Fred King:is the manager of the Advanced Technology Department for Unisys in Reston Virginia. He earned his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Houston in 1977. He has been principal investigator of research projects in knowledge engineering pattern recognition and heuristic problem-solving. Efforts include the development of a multi-temporal multispectral classifier for identifying graincrops using LANDSAT satellite imagery data for NASA. Also as a member of the research team for a NCI study with Baylor College of Medicine and NASA he helped develop techniques for detection of carcinoma using multispectral microphotometer scans of lung tissue. He established and became technical director of the AI Laboratory for Ford Aerospace where he developed expert scheduling modeling and knowledge acquisition systems for NASA. Since joining Unisys in 1985 he has led the development of object-oriented programming environments blackboard architectures data fusion techniques using neural networks and intelligent data base systems. Douglas E. Barton:is manager of Logistics Information Systems for Unisys in Reston Virginia. He earned his B.A. degree in computer science from the College of William and Mary in 1978 and did postgraduate work in London as a Drapers Company scholar. Since joining Unisys in 1981 his work has concentrated on program management and software engineering of large scale data base management systems and design and implementation of knowledge-based systems in planning and logistics. As chairman of the Logistics Data Subcommittee of the National Security Industrial Association (NSIA) he led an industry initiative which examined concepts in knowledge-based systems in military logistics. His responsibilities also include evaluation development and tailoring of software engineering standards and procedures for data base and knowledge-based systems. He is currently program manager of the Navigation Information Management System which provides support to the Fleet Ballistic Missile Progr

A valuable technique during concept development is rapid prototyping of software for key design components. This approach is particularly useful when the optimum design approach is not readily apparent or several known alternatives need to be rapidly evaluated. A problem inherent in rapid prototyping is the lack of a "target system" with which to interface. Some alternatives are to develop test driver libraries, integrate the prototype with an existing working simulator, or build one for the specific problem. This paper presents a unique approach to concept development using rapid prototyping for concept development and scenario-based simulation for concept verification. The rapid prototyping environment, derived from artificial intelligence technology, is based on a blackboard architecture. The rapid prototype simulation capability is provided through an object-oriented modeling environment. It is shown how both simulation and blackboard technologies are used collectively to rapidly gain insight into a tenacious problem. A specific example will be discussed where this approach was used to evolve the logic of a mission controller for an autonomous underwater vehicle.

关键词： Military Engineering

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COMPUTER-SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE CONCEPTS FOR FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEMS

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1990年第3期102卷 43-62页

作者： ZITZMAN, LH FALATKO, SM PAPACH, JL Dr. Lewis H. Zitzman:is the group supervisor of the Advanced Systems Design Group Fleet Systems Department The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL). He has been employed at JHU/APL since 1972 performing applied research in computer science and in investigating and applying advanced computer technologies to Navy shipboard systems. He is currently chairman of Aegis Computer Architecture Data Bus and Fiber Optics Working Group from which many concepts for this paper were generated. Dr. Zitzman received his B.S. degree in physics from Brigham Young University in 1963 and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in physics from the University of Illinois in 1967 and 1972 respectively. Stephen M. Falatko:was a senior engineering analyst in the Combat Systems Engineering Department Comptek Research Incorporated for the majority of this effort. He is currently employed at ManTech Services Corporation. During his eight-year career first at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and currently with ManTech Mr. Falatko's work has centered around the development of requirements and specifications for future Navy systems and the application of advanced technology to Navy command and control systems. He is a member of both the Computer Architecture Fiber Optics and Data Bus Working Group and the Aegis Fiber Optics Working Group. Mr. Falatko received his B.S. degree in aerospace engineering with high distinction from the University of Virginia in 1982 and his M.S. degree in applied physics from The Johns Hopkins University in 1985. Mr. Falatko is a member of Tau Beta Pi Sigma Gamma Tau the American Society of Naval Engineers and the U.S. Naval Institute. Janet L. Papach:is a section leader and senior engineering analyst in the Combat Systems Engineering Department Comptek Research Incorporated. She has ten years' experience as an analyst supporting NavSea Spa War and the U.S. Department of State. She currently participates in working group efforts under Aegis Combat System Doctrin

This paper sets forth computer systems architecture concepts for the combat system of the 2010–2030 timeframe that satisfy the needs of the next generation of surface combatants. It builds upon the current Aegis computer systems architecture, expanding that architecture while preserving, and adhering to, the Aegis fundamental principle of thorough systems engineering, dedicated to maintaining a well integrated, highly reliable, and easily operable combat system. The implementation of these proposed computer systems concepts in a coherent architecture would support the future battle force capable combat system and allow the expansion necessary to accommodate evolutionary changes in both the threat environment and the technology then available to effectively counter that threat. Changes to the current Aegis computer architecture must be carefully and effectively managed such that the fleet will retain its combat readiness capability at all times. This paper describes a possible transition approach for evolving the current Aegis computer architecture to a general architecture for the future. The proposed computer systems architecture concepts encompass the use of combinations of physically distributed, microprocessor-based computers, collocated with the equipment they support or embedded within the equipment itself. They draw heavily on widely used and available industry standards, including instruction set architectures (ISAs), backplane busses, microprocessors, computer programming languages and development environments, and local area networks (LANs). In this proposal, LANs, based on fiber optics, will provide the interconnection to support system expandability, redundancy, and higher data throughput rates. A system of cross connected LANs will support a high level of combat system integration, spanning the major warfare areas, and will facilitate the coordination and development of a coherent multi-warfare tactical picture supporting the future combatant command st

关键词： Computer Architecture

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AIR-CUSHION LANdING CRAFT NAVIGATION

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1985年第4期97卷 248-260页

作者： GRAHAM, HR KIM, JC BANd, EGU FOWLER, AW Herbert R. Graham:received his degrees of B.S. in 1951 and M.S. in 1958 in aeronautical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the California Institute of Technology respectively. He also attended the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. He is presently a task manager at TRW Inc. McLean Virginia responsible for landing craft air cushion (LCAC) engineering support. Since joining TRW in 1967 he has had several technical project management and system engineering responsibilities in amphibious ships transportation and energy. He was responsible for the preliminary engineering design and cost estimates for tracked air cushion vehicles (TACVs). He has been active in several professional societies including ASNE and served as vice-chairman Los Angeles Section American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. John C. Kim:received his degrees of B.S. in electrical engineering Tri-State University 1959 M.S. in electrical engineering Michigan State University 1960 and Ph.D. in electrical engineering Michigan State University. He is presently a senior staff engineer with TRW Inc. McLean Virginia where his technical experience has included communications system engineering and navigation system analysis. Since joining TRW in 1969 he has held numerous positions including section head project manager and department manager. His previous employment includes E-Systems/Melpar Division and Honeywell. Dr. Kim has been active in the IEEE Washington Chapter activities which included secretary vice-chairman and chairman of Systems Science and Cybernetics Group. Edward G.U. Band:received a B.S. degree in mechnical engineering in 1946 and a D.I.C in aeronautical engineering in 1947 at the City and Guilds College of London University. In 1951 he received an M.S. degree from Stevens Institute of Technology in fluid dynamics. After a career in the aircraft industry in England Canada and the U.S.A. he spent several years teaching in Chile and at Webb Institute of Naval Archi

Air cushion vehicles (ACVs) have operated successfully on commercial routes for about twenty years. The routes are normally quite short; the craft are equipped with radar and radio navigation aids and maintain continuous contact with their terminals. Navigation of these craft, therefore, does not present any unusual difficulty. The introduction of air cushion vehicles into military service, however, can present a very different picture, especially when external navigation aids are not available and the craft must navigate by dead reckoning. This paper considers the problems involved when navigating a high-speed air cushion vehicle by dead reckoning in conditions of poor visibility. A method is presented to assess the ACV's navigational capability under these circumstances. A figure of merit is used to determine the sensitivity of factors which affect navigation such as the range of visibility, point-to-point distance, speed, turning radius and accuracy of onboard equipment. The method provides simplistic but adequate answers and can be used effectively to compare the-capability and cost of alternative navigation concepts.

关键词： AIR CUSHION VEHICLES

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