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Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (vol 395, pg 1779, 2020)

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LANCET 2020年第10239期395卷 1762-1762页

作者： Reiner, R. C., Jr. Hay, S., I Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States College of Health and Medical Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Nursing and Midwifery Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Pharmacy Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Public Health Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Biology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Economics and Management Sciences for Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Management and Economics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Microbiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Iran National Institute of Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and

Summary Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood *** We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor *** The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy *** By co-analysing geospatial trends in d

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Alternative Strategies for Managing Insomnia: The Case of Physical Exercise and Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation. A Narrative Review

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Sleep and Vigilance 2018年第1期2卷 39-44页

作者： Higuera-Hernández, María Fernanda Reyes-Cuapio, Elena Gutiérrez-Mendoza, Marissa Rocha, Nuno Barbosa Veras, André Barciela Budde, Henning Jesse, Johanna Machado, Sérgio Murillo-Rodríguez, Eric Laboratorio de Neurociencias Moleculares e Integrativas Escuela de Medicina División Ciencias de la Salud Universidad Anáhuac Mayab Mérida Mexico Grupo de Investigación en Envejecimiento División Ciencias de la Salud Universidad Anáhuac Mayab Mérida Mexico Intercontinental Neuroscience Research Group Mérida Mexico Escuela de Nutrición División Ciencias de la Salud Universidad Anáhuac Mayab Mérida Mexico Faculty of Health Sciences Polytechnic Institute of Porto Porto Portugal Laboratory of Panic and Respiration Institute of Psychiatry Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil Postgraduate Program in Health Psychology Dom Bosco Catholic University Campo Grande Campo Grande Brazil Faculty of Human Sciences Medical School Hamburg Hamburg Germany Sports Science Department Physical Activity Physical Education Health and Sport Research Centre (PAPESH) School of Science and Engineering Reykjavik University Reykjavík Iceland Lithuanian Sports University Kaunas Lithuania Physical Activity Neuroscience Laboratory Physical Activity Sciences Postgraduate Program of Salgado de Oliveira University Niterói Brazil

The sleep–wake cycle is a process regulated by multiple neurobiological mechanisms that in aberrant functioning provokes several sleep disturbances. Among the major categories of sleep disorders, insomnia represents one of the most reported in population. Pharmacological interventions aimed for treating this sleep disturbance include compounds such as antidepressants, antihistamines, sedative-hypnotics, among others. However, using pharmacological treatments increase undesirable side effects such as addiction to sleep-inducing drugs. Here, we review and summarize recent publications available in PubMed regarding the use of non-pharmacological/invasive means to control insomnia, including physical exercise and transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). Current data suggest that these two strategies efficiently manage insomnia, and in turn opens new approaches to develop therapeutical tools to diminish this pathology. Nevertheless, additional research is required to understand the neurobiological mechanism of action of physical exercise and tDCS in insomnia control.

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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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The Lancet 2020年第10258期396卷 1204-1222页

作者： Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abbasi, Mohammad Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd-Allah, Foad Abdelalim, Ahmed Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abedi, Aidin Abedi, Parisa Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Aboyans, Victor Abrams, Elissa M. Abreu, Lucas Guimarães Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid Abualhasan, Ahmed Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. Acebedo, Alyssa Ackerman, Ilana N. Adabi, Maryam Adair, Tim Adamu, Abdu A. Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adelson, Jaimie D. Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adham, Davoud Advani, Shailesh M. Afarideh, Mohsen Afshari, Mahdi Afshin, Ashkan Agardh, Emilie E. Agarwal, Gina Agasthi, Pradyumna Agesa, Kareha M. Aghaali, Mohammad Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Agrawal, Anurag Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aji, Budi Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemiju, Tomi Akombi, Blessing Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Samiah Alam, Tahiya Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albertson, Samuel B. Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alema, Niguse Meles Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Alhabib, Khalid F. Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Muhammad Ali, Saqib Alicandro, Gianfranco Alijanzadeh, Mehran Alinia, Cyrus Alipour, Vahid Alizade, Hesam Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, François Allebeck, Peter Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almasi, Ali Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Almasri, Nihad A. Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almulhim, Abdulaziz M. Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alumran, Arwa Khalid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Amare, Bekalu Amini, Saeed Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Aminorroaya, Arya Amiri, Fatemeh Amit, Arianna Maever L. Amugsi, Dickson A. Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera Anbesu, Etsay Woldu Ancuceanu, Robert Anderl Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London United Kingdom Social Determinants of Health Research Center Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Cairo University Cairo Egypt School of Pharmacy Tehran Iran The Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences (TIPS) Tehran Iran Neuroscience Research Center Isfahan University of Medical Sciences Isfahan Iran Biostatistics Department Near East University Nicosia Cyprus Biostatistics and Health Informatics Madda Walabu University Bale Robe Ethiopia Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Department of Cardiology Dupuytren University Hospital Limoges France University of Limoges Limoges France Department of Pediatric Dentistry Federal University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil Department of Research Philippine Institute for Development Studies Quezon City Philippines Department of Healthcare Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Harvard Medical School Boston MA United States Department of Medicine Ain Shams University Cairo Egypt Hamadan University of Medical Sciences Hamadan Iran School of Medicine Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom School of Laboratory Medicine and Science University College Hospital Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa Department of Global Health Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa School of Health Ardabil University of Medical Science Ardabil Iran Social Behavioral Research Branch National Institute of Health Bethesda MD United States Department of Oncology Georgetown University Washington DC DC United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine Seattle WA

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw value

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Simultaneous Millimeter-wave, Gamma-ray, and Optical Monitoring of the Blazar PKS 2326-502 During a Flaring State

arXiv

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Hood, J.C. Simpson, A. McDaniel, A. Foster, A. Ade, P.A.R. Ajello, M. Anderson, A.J. Austermann, J.E. Beall, J.A. Bender, A.N. Benson, B.A. Bianchini, F. Bleem, L.E. Carlstrom, J.E. Chang, C.L. Chaubal, P. Chiang, H.C. Chou, T.-L. Citron, R. Corbett Moran, C. Crawford, T.M. Crites, A.T. De Haan, T. Dobbs, M.A. Everett, W. Gallicchio, J. George, E.M. Gupta, N. Halverson, N.W. Hilton, G.C. Holder, G.P. Holzapfel, W.L. Hrubes, J.D. Huang, N. Hubmayr, J. Irwin, K.D. Knox, L. Lee, A.T. Li, D. Lowitz, A. Madejski, G. Malkan, M. McMahon, J.J. Meyer, S.S. Montgomery, J. Natoli, T. Nibarger, J.P. Noble, G. Novosad, V. Omori, Y. Padin, S. Patil, S. Pryke, C. Reichardt, C.L. Ruhl, J.E. Saliwanchik, B.R. Schaffer, K.K. Sievers, C. Smecher, G. Stark, A.A. Tucker, C. Veach, T. Vieira, J.D. Wang, G. Whitehorn, N. Wu, W.L.K. Yefremenko, V. Zebrowski, J.A. Zhang, L. Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics University of Chicago 5640 South Ellis Avenue ChicagoIL60637 United States Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics University of Chicago 5640 South Ellis Avenue ChicagoIL60637 United States Department of Physics and Astronomy Vanderbilt University NashvilleTN37235 United States Department of Physics Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute TroyNY12180 United States Department of Physics and Astronomy Clemson University ClemsonSC29631 United States Department of Physics Case Western Reserve University ClevelandOH44106 United States Cardiff University CardiffCF10 3XQ United Kingdom Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory MS209 P.O. Box 500 BataviaIL60510 United States Nist Quantum Devices Group 325 Broadway Mailcode 817.03 BoulderCO80305 United States Department of Physics University of Colorado BoulderCO80309 United States High Energy Physics Division Argonne National Laboratory 9700 S. Cass Avenue ArgonneIL60439 United States School of Physics University of Melbourne VIC Parkville3010 Australia Department of Physics University of Chicago 5640 South Ellis Avenue ChicagoIL60637 United States Enrico Fermi Institute University of Chicago 5640 South Ellis Avenue ChicagoIL60637 United States Department of Physics McGill University 3600 Rue University QC MontrealH3A 2T8 Canada School of Mathematics Statistics & Computer Science University of KwaZulu-Natal Durban South Africa University of Chicago 5640 South Ellis Avenue ChicagoIL60637 United States Tapir Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics California Institute of Technology 1200 E California Blvd PasadenaCA91125 United States Dunlap Institute for Astronomy & Astrophysics University of Toronto 50 St George St ON TorontoM5S 3H4 Canada Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics University of Toronto 50 St George St ON TorontoM5S 3H4 Canada Ibaraki Tsukuba305-0801 Japan Ibaraki Tsukuba305-0801 Japan Canadian Institute f

Including millimeter-wave (mm-wave) data in multi-wavelength studies of the variability of active galactic nuclei (AGN) can provide insights into AGN physics that are not easily accessible at other wavelengths. We demonstrate in this work the potential of cosmic microwave background (CMB) telescopes to provide long-term, high-cadence mm-wave AGN monitoring over large fractions of sky. We report on a pilot study using data from the SPTpol instrument on the South Pole Telescope (SPT), which was designed to observe the CMB at arcminute and larger angular scales. Between 2013 and 2016, SPTpol was used primarily to observe a single 500 deg2field, covering the entire field several times per day with detectors sensitive to radiation in bands centered at 95 and 150 GHz. We use SPT 150 GHz observations to create AGN light curves, and we compare these mm-wave light curves to those at other wavelengths, in particular γ-ray and optical. In this Letter, we focus on a single source, PKS 2326-502, which has extensive, day-timescale monitoring data in gamma-ray, optical, and now mm-wave between 2013 and 2016. We find PKS 2326-502 to be in a flaring state in the first two years of this monitoring, and we present a search for evidence of correlated variability between mm-wave, optical R band, and γ-ray observations. This pilot study is paving the way for AGN monitoring with current and upcoming CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, including multi-wavelength studies with facilities such as VRO-LSST. © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Active Galactic Nuclei

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Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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The Lancet Planetary Health 2022年第7期6卷 e586-e600页

作者： Burkart, Katrin Causey, Kate Cohen, Aaron J Wozniak, Sarah S Salvi, Devashri Digvijay Abbafati, Cristiana Adekanmbi, Victor Adsuar, Jose C Ahmadi, Keivan Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alipour, Vahid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amegah, Adeladza Kofi Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Ansari, Fereshteh Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Aripov, Timur Babaee, Ebrahim Banach, MacIej Barnett, Anthony Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Bedi, Neeraj Behzadifar, Masoud Béjot, Yannick Bennett, Derrick A Bensenor, Isabela M Bernstein, Robert S Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bijani, Ali Biondi, Antonio Bohlouli, Somayeh Breitner, Susanne Brenner, Hermann Butt, Zahid A Cámera, Luis Alberto Cantu-Brito, Carlos Carvalho, Felix Cerin, Ester Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chauhan, Bal Govind Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine Chu, Dinh-Toi Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Daryani, Ahmad Davletov, Kairat De Courten, Barbora Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Dhimal, Meghnath Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Duncan, Bruce B El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Eskandarieh, Sharareh Fareed, Mohammad Farzadfar, Farshad Fattahi, Nazir Fazlzadeh, Mehdi Fernandes, Eduarda Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Foigt, Nataliya A Freitas, Marisa Ghashghaee, Ahmad Gill, Paramjit Singh Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Gopalani, Sameer Vali Guo, Yuming Gupta, Rajat Das Habtewold, Tesfa Dejenie Hamadeh, Randah R Hamidi, Samer Hankey, Graeme J Hasanpoor, Edris Hassen, Hamid Yimam Hay, Simon I Heibati, Behzad Hole, Michael K Hossain, Naznin Househ, Mowafa Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Jaafari, Jalil Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Jha, Ravi Prakash Jonas, Jost B Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy Kasaeian, Amir Kaydi, Neda Khader, Yousef Saleh Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khatab, Khaled Khater, Amir M Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W Kisa, Adnan Kivimäki, Mika Knibbs, Luke D Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A Koyanagi, Ai Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Kugbey, Nuworza Lauriola, Paolo Lee, Paul H Leili, Mostafa Lewycka, Sonia Li, Shanshan Lim, Lee-Ling Li Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery University of Washington Seattle WA United States Research Insights and Innovation Seattle WA United States Health Effects Institute Boston MA United States School of Public Health Boston University Boston MA United States Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Department of Population Medicine Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom Sport Science Department University of Extremadura Badajoz Spain School of Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Primary Care and Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research Rochester MN United States John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO United States Clinical Epidemiology Center US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) St Louis MO United States Health Management and Economics Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Community and Family Medicine Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Group in Hospital Management and Health Policies Universidad de la Costa (University of the Coast) Barranquilla Colombia Research Group in Health Economics University of Cartagena Cartagena Colombia Department of Biomedical Science University of Cape Coast Cape Coast Ghana Cardiology Department Ca

Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM_2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM_2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM_2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Am

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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

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The Lancet Global Health 2023年第3期11卷 e385-e413页

作者： Micah, Angela E. Bhangdia, Kayleigh Cogswell, Ian E. Lasher, Dylan Lidral-Porter, Brendan Maddison, Emilie R. Nguyen, Trang Nhu Ngoc Patel, Nishali Pedroza, Paola Solorio, Juan Stutzman, Hayley Tsakalos, Golsum Wang, Yifeng Warriner, Wesley Zhao, Yingxi Zlavog, Bianca S. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Jaffar Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abhilash, E.S. Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abubaker Ali, Hiwa Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adem, Mohammed Hussien Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed Rashid, Tarik Aji, Budi Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akelew, Yibeltal Al Hamad, Hanadi Alam, Khurshid Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Alhassan, Robert Kaba Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amu, Hubert Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Anwar, Sumadi Lukman Appiah, Francis Aqeel, Muhammad Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Olatunde Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Avila-Burgos, Leticia Ayanore, Martin Amogre Azari, Samad Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Abere Tilahun Barrow, Amadou Baskaran, Pritish Basu, Sanjay Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Baune, Bernhard T. Berezvai, Zombor Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Boachie, Micheal Kofi Bodolica, Virginia Botelho, João Silva Botelho Braithwaite, Dejana Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. Busse, Reinhard Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Catalá-López, Ferrán Chansa, Collins Charan, Jaykaran Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chen, Simiao Chukwu, Isaac Sunday Dadras, Omid Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargahi, Abdollah Debela, Sisay Abebe Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Desye, Belay Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Diao, Nancy Doan, Linh Phuong Dodangeh, Milad dos Santos, Wendel Mombaque Doshmangir, Leila Dube, John Eini, Ebrahim El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enyew, Daniel Berhanie Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Applied Mathematics University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Antai College of Economics Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Children’s Medical Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Tehran Heart Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Faculty of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Institute for Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Cardiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurosurgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic R

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic;characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic;and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods: In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings: In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1–9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019;293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3–25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided

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Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

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eClinicalMedicine 2023年 64卷 102193-102193页

作者： Wu, Dongze Jin, Yingzhao Xing, Yuhan Abate, Melsew Dagne Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abd-Allah, Foad Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abedi, Vida Abidi, Hassan Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abuabara, Katrina Abyadeh, Morteza Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adeniji, Kayode Nelson Adepoju, Abiola Victor Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afarideh, Mohsen Aghamiri, Shahin Agodi, Antonella Agrawal, Anurag Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Aithala, Janardhana P. Ajadi, Abdullateef Abiodun Ajami, Marjan Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa Alahdab, Fares AlBataineh, Mohammad T. Alemi, Sharifullah Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Ali, Liaqat Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Almazan, Joseph Uy Almustanyir, Sami Alqahtani, Jaber S. Alqasmi, Ibrahim Altaf, Ihsan Ullah Khan Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed Aly, Hany Amani, Reza Amu, Hubert Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Andrei, Catalina Liliana Ansar, Adnan Ansariniya, Hossein Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Arefnezhad, Reza Arulappan, Judie Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Ashraf, Tahira Atata, Jamila Abdulhamid Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atlaw, Daniel Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Aujayeb, Avinash Awan, Asma Tahir Ayatollahi, Haleh Azadnajafabad, Sina Azzam, Ahmed Y. Badawi, Alaa Badiye, Ashish D. Bagherieh, Sara Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Berihun Bantie Barchitta, Martina Bardhan, Mainak Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn Barone-Adesi, Francesco Batra, Kavita Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew Behnoush, Amir Hossein Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal Bemanalizadeh, Maryam Bensenor, Isabela M. Beyene, Kebede A. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Bhat, Ajay Nagesh Bitaraf, Saeid Bitra, Veera R. Boloor, Archith Bora, Kaustubh Botelho, João Silva Buchbinder, Rachelle Calina, Daniela Cámera, Luis Alberto Carvalho, Andre F. Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chattu, Vijay Kumar Abebe, Endeshaw Chekol Department of Rheumatology and Immunology Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital School of Medicine University of Electronic Science and Technology of China China Department of Medicine & Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Department of Paediatrics The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong School of Pharmacy The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Department of Nursing Woldia University Woldia Ethiopia Department of Orthopedic Surgery Harvard University Boston MA United States Postgraduate Medical Education Harvard University Boston MA United States Maternal Fetal Care Center Harvard University Boston MA United States Department of Health Policy and Oral Epidemiology Harvard University Boston MA United States Division of General Internal Medicine Harvard University Boston MA United States Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Biotechnology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Immunology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Medical Genetics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Center for Comprehensive Genetic Services Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Functional Neuro

Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation: The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rh

关键词： Global burden of disease study Immune-mediated inflammatory disease Incidence Trend

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Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study (vol 2, pg 144, 2021)

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LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021年第4期9卷 E408-E408页

作者： Steinmetz, Jaimie D. Vision and Eye Research Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge United Kingdom Biomedical Informatics Seoul National University Hospital Seoul South Korea Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Institute of Health Services Research Yonsei University Seoul South Korea Department of Ophthalmology University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Mathematics Imperial College London London United Kingdom WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Primary Care and Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne Carlton VIC Australia School of Optometry and Vision Science UNSW Sydney NSW Australia Brien Holden Vision Institute Sydney Australia Department of Ophthalmology University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia Department of Parasitology and Mycology Jahrom University of Medical Sciences Jahrom Iran Department of Clinical Sciences University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Ophthalmic Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Ophthalmology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Health Services Management Department Qazvin University of Medical Sciences Qazvin Iran Department of Systems Populations and Leadership University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI United States Department of Medicine Sofia Ismail Memorial Medical Centre Bogura Bangladesh The Fred Hollows Foundation Sydney NSW Australia Berhan Public Health & Eye Care Consultancy Addis A

Hospital El Salvador: a novel paradigm of intensive care in response to COVID-19 in central America. Lancet Glob Health 2021;9: e241?42?In this Comment, the conflict of interest statement should have included the following: ?By virtue of their roles within a public hospital or the Ministry of Health, MB, LC, WH, and XS are government employees. The findings and conclusions in the Comment are only those of the authors.? This correction has been made as of Feb 26, 2021.

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BioTIME 2.0: Expanding and Improving a Database of Biodiversity Time Series

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Global Ecology and Biogeography 2025年第5期34卷

作者： Maria Dornelas Laura H. Antão Amanda E. Bates Viviana Brambilla Jonathan M. Chase Cher F. Y. Chow Ada Fontrodona-Eslava Anne E. Magurran Inês S. Martins Faye Moyes Alban Sagouis Samuel Adu-Acheampong Daniel Acquah-Lamptey Dušan Adam Penelope A. Ajani Aitor Albaina Pablo Almaraz Jeongseop An Roger Sigismund Anderson Madelaine Jean Robertson Anderson Alexsander Z. Antunes Ivan Arismendi Linda Armbrecht Pedro Aros-Mardones Sreejith Kalpuzha Ashtamoorthy Narayanan Ayyappan Gal Badihi Joseph J. Bailey Andrew H. Baird Mark Edward Baird Sreekumar Vadakkethil Balakrishnan José António L. Barão-Nóbrega Adi Barash Miguel Barbosa Jos Barlow Claus Bässler Matthieu Beaumont Natalie Beenaerts Tiago Octavio Begot Wallace Beiroz Ricardo Beldade David M. Bell Alecia Bellgrove Jonathan Belmaker Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi Cassandra E. Benkwitt Pamela Medina-van Berkum Brandon T. Bestelmeyer Matthew G. Betts Maxwell Kelvin Billah Anne D. Bjorkman Magdalena Błażewicz Christopher P. Bloch Shane A. Blowes Antonio Bode Juliano A. Bogoni Thomas Bolger Timothy C. Bonebrake Erik Bonsdorff Roberta Bottarin Luke N. Brokensha Rob W. Brooker Andrew J. Brooks Helge Bruelheide Thiago Almeida Bueno Claire Laguionie Mariana Lopes Campagnoli James Cant Erica Pellegrini Caramaschi Alexandre Caron Tadhg Carroll Tancredi Caruso Juan Carvajal-Quintero Giuseppe Castaldelli Edward Castañeda-Moya Pedro V. Castilho Sonia Zanini Cechin Shahar Chaikin Uchangi Manjunatha Chandrashekara Tory J. Chase Chaolun Allen Chen Jorge José Cherem Sei-Woong Choi Erica M. Christensen Alexander V. Christianini Jackson Wing Four Chu Peter Coad Carl Van Colen Lise Comte Elisabeth J. Cooper J. Hans C. Cornelissen Eddy Cosson Unai Cotano Luc Crevecoeur Shannan Kyle Crow Graeme S. Cumming Vanessa S. Daga Gabriella Damasceno Gergana N. Daskalova Claire H. Davies Robert A. Davis Frank P. Day Sussy De-La-Zerda Amy Elizabeth Deacon Indradatta de Castro-Arrazola Steven Degraer Kharran Deonarinesingh Juan C. Diaz-Ricaurte Christopher R. Dickman Tara Dirilgen Ciaran John Dolan J. Emmet Centre for Biological Diversity School of Biology University of St Andrews Fife UK MARE—Centro de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisboa Portugal Research Centre for Ecological Change Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland Department of Biology University of Victoria Victoria British Columbia Canada German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig Leipzig Germany Department of Computer Science Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Germany Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity Department of Biology University of York York UK Department of Animal Biology and Conservation Science University of Ghana Accra Ghana Philipps Universität Marburg Marburg Germany Department of Forest Ecology Silva Tarouca Research Institute Brno Czech Republic School of Life Sciences University of Technology Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia Zoology and Animal Cell Biology Department University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) Leioa Spain Grupo de Oceanografía de Ecosistemas Instituto de Ciencias Marinas de Andalucía CSIC Campus Universitario de Puerto Real Puerto Real Spain National Institute of Ecology Seocheon Republic of Korea African Regional Postgraduate Programme in Insect Science University of Ghana Accra Ghana Département de Biologie Université de Sherbrooke Sherbrooke Quebec Canada Núcleo de Conservação da Biodiversidade Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais Secretaria de Meio Ambiente Infraestrutura e Logística do Estado de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil Department of Fisheries Wildlife and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University Corvallis Oregon USA Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies Ecology & Biodiversity Centre University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia Graduate Program in Oceanography Department of Oceanography Faculty of Natural Scienc

Motivation Here, we make available a second version of the BioTIME database, which compiles records of abundance estimates for species in sample events of ecological assemblages through time. The updated version expands version 1.0 of the database by doubling the number of studies and includes substantial additional curation to the taxonomic accuracy of the records, as well as the metadata. Moreover, we now provide an R package (BioTIMEr) to facilitate use of the database. Main Types of Variables Included The database is composed of one main data table containing the abundance records and 11 metadata tables. The data are organised in a hierarchy of scales where 11,989,233 records are nested in 1,603,067 sample events, from 553,253 sampling locations, which are nested in 708 studies. A study is defined as a sampling methodology applied to an assemblage for a minimum of 2 years. Spatial Location and Grain Sampling locations in BioTIME are distributed across the planet, including marine, terrestrial and freshwater realms. Spatial grain size and extent vary across studies depending on sampling methodology. We recommend gridding of sampling locations into areas of consistent size. Time Period and Grain The earliest time series in BioTIME start in 1874, and the most recent records are from 2023. Temporal grain and duration vary across studies. We recommend doing sample-level rarefaction to ensure consistent sampling effort through time before calculating any diversity metric. Major Taxa and Level of Measurement The database includes any eukaryotic taxa, with a combined total of 56,400 taxa. Software Format csv and. SQL.

关键词： assemblage biodiversity community database ecoinformatics species taxa time

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Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

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The Lancet HIV 2021年第10期8卷 e633-e651页

作者： Jahagirdar, Deepa Walters, Magdalene K. Novotney, Amanda Brewer, Edmond D. Frank, Tahvi D. Carter, Austin Biehl, Molly H. Abbastabar, Hedayat Abhilash, E.S. Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Adekanmbi, Victor Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afzal, Saira Aghababaei, Soodabeh Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadpour, Ehsan Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Rashid, Tarik Ahmed Salih, Yusra Ahmed Aklilu, Addis Akram, Tayyaba Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Al Hamad, Hanadi Alahdab, Fares Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Aleksandrova, Ekaterina A. Alene, Kefyalew Addis Ali, Liaqat Alipour, Vahid Almustanyir, Sami Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amu, Hubert Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Anvari, Davood Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Arulappan, Judie Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Darshan, B.B. Banach, Maciej Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Barra, Fabio Barrow, Amadou Basu, Sanjay Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad Belay, Habtamu Gebrehana Berheto, Tezera Moshago Bezabhe, Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bibi, Sadia Bijani, Ali Bisignano, Catherine Bolarinwa, Obasanjo Afolabi Boloor, Archith Boltaev, Azizbek A. Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Buonsenso, Danilo Burkart, Katrin Butt, Zahid A. Cao, Chao Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chu, Dinh-Toi Couto, Rosa A.S. Cowden, Richard G. Dachew, Berihun Assefa Dadras, Omid Dagnew, Amare Belachew Dahlawi, Saad M.A. Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi das Neves, José Degenhardt, Louisa Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen Desta, Abebaw Alemayehu Deuba, Keshab Dhamnetiya, Deepak Dhungana, Govinda Prasad Dianatinasab, Mostafa Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Doan, Linh Phuong Dorostkar, Fariba Edinur, Hisham Atan Effiong, Andem Eftekharzadeh, Sahar El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Elayedath, Rajesh Elhadi, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA United States School of Social Work University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeones Columbia University Medical Center New York NY United States Division of Data Analytics and Delivery for Impact WHO Geneva Switzerland Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Public Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Paediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Psychiatry Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and Genomics Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Centre for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Non-Communicable Diseases Research Centre Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Botany Sree Narayana Guru College Chelannur Kozhikode India Clinical Sciences Department University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Mass Communication Department University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Department of Health-Care Policy and Research Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar Doha Qatar Department of Population Medicine Ca

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was

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