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Wind speed forecasting approach using conformal prediction and feature importance selection

International Journal of electrical Power and Energy Systems 2025年 168卷

作者： Zuege, Cesar Vinicius Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo Yamaguchi, Cristina Keiko Mariani, Viviana Cocco Gonzalez, Gabriel Villarrubia Coelho, Leandro dos Santos Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering Federal University of Parana PR Curitiba Brazil Postgraduate Program in Productive Systems in Association with UNIPLAC UNC UNESC and UNIVILLE SC Brazil Department of Electrical Engineering Federal University of Parana PR Curitiba Brazil Graduate Program in Mechanical Engineering Federal University of Parana PR Curitiba Brazil Expert Systems and Applications Lab Faculty of Science University of Salamanca Salamanca37008 Spain

Wind energy is a rising renewable energy source that plays an important role in the transition to a more sustainable energy system. Variation in wind power generation is one of the main challenges facing this energy source. Wind forecasting approaches are essential for planning and operating wind farms, but are complex due to the dynamic nature of the wind and the influence of local factors. This paper evaluates short-term forecasting of time series with a measure of uncertainty associated with wind speeds. The proposed method considers the conformal prediction approach and, based on Shapley values, uses optimal selection of features given their importance. Furthermore, a Bayesian Optimization with Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (BO-TPE) will be used to tune the hyperparameters of the models. The results showed that using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) allied with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to feed into a conformal prediction model improved the performance of the model. Taking into account a Beutenberg data set, Germany, the best model was Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM)-VMD-SSA without partial fit, resulting in a root mean squared error (RMSE) criterion of 0.25031, coverage measure of 94.4%, and width measure of 1.008. When considering a dataset from Limoeiro, Brazil, the best model was also LGBM-VMD-SSA without partial fit, resulting in an RMSE of 0.21597, a coverage of 90.3%, and a width of 0.678. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) bring explainability to the model results. The models proposed in this study, hypertuned by BO-TPE with interpretable results based on SHAP, can be useful in predicting wind speed and power generation. © 2025 The Authors

关键词： Windmill

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The sensitivity analysis using adjoint method in numerical modeling of electric potential distribution of the transmission lines

The sensitivity analysis using adjoint method in numerical m...

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作者： Paganotti, André Luiz Saldanha, Rodney Resende Lisboa, Adriano Chaves Afonso, Márcio Matias Duane, Bell Abrão Marques Electrical Engineering Postgraduate Program UFSJ-CEFET-MG Minas Gerais Brazil Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering UFMG Minas Gerais Brazil

This paper proposes a new methodology for sensitivity analysis evaluation, fast and with high precision of the electric potential distribution near the transmission lines (TL's). The TL is modeled by the finite element method and the sensitivity of the cable positions is obtained using the adjoint method. The sensitivity of the objective function during the optimization process by using methods based on gradient information is obtained by using the adjoint method. The exact sensitivity obtained by the adjoint method concerning the numeric model of the TL's results in new geometries of the bundles conductors with high surge impedance loading. These geometries are not possible to get using analytic models. The sensitivities of a large number of conductors by phase are obtained with high precision and very low computational cost using adjoint sensitivities, which are independent of the number of design variables. The central finite difference method is used to calculate the sensitivities and to validate the adjoint method. With this methodology, the FEM model of the TL can be used during the optimization process without compromising the required computational processing time. © 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

关键词： Electric lines

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Didactic architectures and simulator for network processor learning

Didactic architectures and simulator for network processor l...

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Workshop on Computer Architecture Education, WCAE '03, Held in conjunction with the 30th International Symposium on Computer Architecture

作者： De Freitas, Henrique Cota Martins, Carlos Augusto P. S. Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering Pontifical Catholic University Minas Gerais Brazil

In our university, we are developing a project about Reconfigurable Network Processors (RNP). There are four important results: Reconfigurable CISC Network Processor (RCNP) architecture, Reconfigurable RISC Network Processor (R2NP) architecture, Network Processor Simulator (NPSIM), and a performance analytical model for the ISA (Instruction Set Architecture). The architectures and the simulator are not commercial products, but conceptual models. This paper shows the main functionality of those four results and the their applicability on the Network Processor learning. As our Network Processor architectures and simulator are simpler than commercial products, their conceptual models can aid students to learn network processors concepts, as a first step to understand other complex architectures.

关键词： Simulators

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Effects on Cortical Rhythms Produced by Robotic Glove Assistance During Motor Imagery 1

Effects on Cortical Rhythms Produced by Robotic Glove Assist...

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1st IEEE Colombian Caribbean Conference, C3 2023

作者： Blanco-Diaz, Cristian F. Gonzalez-Cely, Aura X. Guerrero-Mendez, Cristian D. Souza, Fernanda Andrade, Diego Bastos-Filho, Teodiano F. Federal University of Espírito Santo Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering Vitoria Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9798350341799

In recent years, advances in Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) have gained recognition for the design of rehabilitation and/or assistance strategies for populations with neuromotor disabilities. In BCIs, the study of EEG phenomena during hand Motor Imagery (MI) tasks is still challenging. Therefore, to deepen the field, a novel protocol based on MI tasks is proposed in this study, which is compared to the classical MI protocol based on static Action Observation (AO). The proposed protocol is based on a combination of visual stimulation by AO and passive movements generated by a robotic glove. To address cortical effects, Electroencephalography (EEG) analysis was performed to examine the differences in cortical rhythms in the frequency domain. The results allow concluding that the use of the robotic glove generated a greater decrease in power (desynchronization) in the central parietal cortex of the brain, especially for electrode C3. These findings allow further neuroscience studies and will be used to deepen the analysis and detection of MI patterns towards a BCI-controlled upper limb assistance device. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： Brain computer interface

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Hand Motor Imagery Identification Using Machine Learning Approaches in a Protocol Based on Visual Stimuli and Passive Movement 1

Hand Motor Imagery Identification Using Machine Learning App...

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1st IEEE Colombian Caribbean Conference, C3 2023

作者： Gonzalez-Cely, Aura X. Blanco-Diaz, Cristian F. Guerrero-Mendez, Cristian D. Bastos-Filho, Teodiano F. Federal University of Espírito Santo Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering Vitoria Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9798350341799

In recent years, advancements in rehabilitation techniques have been made to leverage biosignals and passive movement as integral components of physical interventions to restore upper limb mobility in people with disabilities. This study introduces a novel Motor Imagery (MI) protocol based on Action Observation (AO) using static visual cues and a robotic glove used in the right hand. To address this, Machine Learning (ML) techniques were assessed using features based on Power Spectral Density (PSD) in the mu (μ, 8-13 Hz) and beta (β, 13-30 Hz) frequency bands. Four distinct classifiers were explored: Kernel Naive Bayes (NB), Quadratic Support Vector Machine (QSVM), Fine k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Logistic Regression (LR). These classifiers were employed to discriminate between open- and closed-hand MI tasks. Based on the evaluated metrics, it was concluded that the implemented methodology is feasible for classifying MI tasks from the same limb, where the QSVM classifier showed the most promising results, with a mean accuracy of approximately 75%. Future work will focus on implementing the system to control the robotic glove in the context of post-stroke rehabilitation, underscoring its potential clinical utility. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： Robotics

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The advantage of blown fiber technology for out site plan network deployment than conventional cabled optical fiber system in Depok apartment project 4

The advantage of blown fiber technology for out site plan ne...

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4th International Seminar on Sensors, Instrumentation, Measurement and Metrology, ISSIMM 2019

作者： Priyo Hutomo, Sri Wibisono, Gunawan Postgraduate Program of Telecommunication Management Indonesia Department of Electrical Engineering Universitas Indonesia Indonesia

The current deployment of optical fiber networks in several major cities in Indonesia is intensive. Development of fiber as the backbone or last mile for special services and almost all of us have encountered. Maybe one of them is a network deployment studio in one of the Apartment Projects in Depok City. The population of Depok reaches 4% per year higher than the national growth, the number of students and students who reach more than 80 thousand who live in Depok from only 2 campuses namely the University of Indonesia and Gunadarma University make the residential business growth both in the form of residential horizontal (boarding rooms) ) or vertical residential (Apartment). Developers are competing to build Apartments which, of course, are potential new revenue and new markets for Internet & Pay-TV Providers. The problem of the length of time the deployment of network infrastructure, traffic is not taken into account and still prioritizes the quality and cost that remains efficient become an issue of concern to the Provider. Blown Fiber is a new technology with four main components namely products, blowing devices, optical fiber bundles, and terminating/connecting hardware. This technology results in more cost-efficient, more flexible designs, better work costs in installation, termination and cheaper testing compared to conventional optical fiber deployment technology. The implementation of Blown Fiber in a deploying studio in one of the Apartments in Depok specifically on the Out Site Plan (OSP) turned out to provide convenience and acceleration in terms of network deployment. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

关键词： Population statistics

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Analysis of Current Variation in a Distribution System with High Penetration of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation 16

Analysis of Current Variation in a Distribution System with ...

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16th Brazilian Power Electronics Conference, COBEP 2021

作者： Barbosa, Patrick T. Oliveira Queiroz, Luann G. Mendes, Mariana A. Batista, Oureste E. Fardin, Jussara F. Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering Federal University of Espirito Santo Vitória Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9781665421294

The increase in the use of renewable sources of electric energy, with low environmental impact, has provided advances in the most diverse areas, mainly in the field of Distributed Generation (DG) that constitutes an alternative generation model to the classic centralized electricity supply system. Among the technologies that implement this model, the Distributed Photovoltaic Generation stands out to have an easy installation process, a constant cost reduction of photovoltaic panels, and to allow bigger competitiveness, when compared to other sources. However, the excessive use of this technology can cause damage to distribution networks, impacting, for example, the electric current levels of the system. This paper shows an evaluation of current variability in a distribution network based on the IEEE 13 Node Test Feeder system through a simplified model of photovoltaic generators. The demand for the system loads and the power levels provided by the generators were varied according to load curve data and specific weather conditions. The results found show that the DG can directly impact on the levels of electric current of the feeder, where maximum variations of 94.08% and 90.66% were obtained for each of the two cities analyzed. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Distributed power generation

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Genetic Optimization-based Overcurrent Relay Coordination in a Feeder with High Distributed Generation Integration

Genetic Optimization-based Overcurrent Relay Coordination in...

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2019 IEEE PES Conference on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies, ISGT Latin America 2019

作者： Ferraz, Renato S. F. Ferraz, Rafael S. F. De Lima, Rodrigo C. D. Tonini, Luiz G. R. Rueda-Medina, Augusto C. Batista, Oureste E. Federal University of Espírito Santo UFES Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering PPGEE Vitória Brazil Federal University of Campina Grande UFCG Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering PPGEE Campina Grande Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9781538695678

Currently, it is evident a great increase in the integration of distributed generation in the electric power system. However, despite the several benefits caused by distributed generation, this integration causes many modifications in the electrical system parameters, such as the charging and the fault current. Thus, the power system protection may not operate as desired, reducing the reliability and safety. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of the distributed generation insertion, based on the addition of the photovoltaic system in the IEEE 13-Node Test Feeder, by using Genetic Algorithms to coordinate directional overcurrent relays in this feeder. From the results, it was possible to notice a considerable modification in the load and fault current, besides that, the developed Genetic Algorithm was able to reduce the objective function effectively respecting the established constraints. So the relays presented in the IEEE 13-Node test feeder with high integration of distributed generation were optimally coordinated. © 2019 IEEE.

关键词： Distributed power generation

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Effect of exposure to a light-emitting diode (LED) on the physicochemical characteristics of natural latex biomembranes used to treat diabetic ulcers

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Research on Biomedical engineering 2022年第3期38卷 901-911页

作者： Santana, Thamis Fernandes Oliveira, Rebeca Hannah de Melo dos Santos, Ludmila Evangelista Lima, Eunice Paloma Nascimento Faria, Sylvia de Sousa Fonseca, Marcos Augusto Moutinho da Silva, Jaqueline Rodrigues Tatmatsu-Rocha, José Carlos Gomes, Marília Miranda Forte Fleury Rosa, Mário Fabrício Fleury Rosa, Suélia de Siqueira Rodrigues Carneiro, Marcella Lemos Brettas Postgraduate Program in Biomedical Engineering University of Brasilia Federal District Brasilia Brazil Postgraduate Program in Materials Science and Engineering Federal University of Campina Grande Paraiba Campina Grande Brazil Department of Electrical Engineering University of Brasilia Federal District Brasilia Brazil Postgraduate Program in Biology Animal University of Brasilia Federal District Brasilia Brazil Medicine Faculty Physical Therapy Department Federal University of Ceara Ceara Fortaleza Brazil Postgraduate Technology and Health Program University of Brasília Federal District Brasília Brazil

Purpose: Natural latex biomembrane has shown high therapeutic potential for the treatment of diabetic ulcers when associated with phototherapy. In this study, physical and chemical alterations in the latex biomembranes were evaluated after exposure to light-emitting diode (LED) irradiation and after contact with NaCl solution. Methods: There were three experimental groups: natural latex biomembranes (1) in natura;(2) after 35 min of LED light irradiation;and (3) after immersion in NaCl 0.9 g% solution. The samples were analyzed by tensile strength test, thermogravimetry, contact angle wettability, and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. Results: The biomembranes that were submitted to contact with NaCl aqueous solution or exposure to LED did not undergo impairment of mechanical resistance. The thermogravimetry analysis indicated that increasing temperature led to mass loss in all samples, referring to their decomposition temperatures. In the wettability test, biomembranes exposed to LED showed a significant reduction in the contact angle between 0 and 10 min, indicating an increase in hydrophilicity, suggesting water storage capacity. The Fourier-transform infrared spectrometry assay showed that there was a more significant reduction in vibration intensity after immersion in NaCl solution compared to untreated biomembranes. An increase in the intensity of the entire spectrum of biomembranes exposed to LED was observed in comparison with the other samples, which may be related to photodegradation caused by LED light irradiation. Conclusion: The biomembranes underwent significant changes in its chemical structure after being subjected to different types of exposure and maintained its elasticity and tensile strength properties, in addition to showing good water retention capacity after exposure to LED. Thus, it maintains many of its properties for application as a tissue-regenerating biomaterial, even when subjected to LED irradiation and a humid environment. © 20

关键词： Tissue regeneration

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A Software Process Simulator Machine for software engineering simulation games

A Software Process Simulator Machine for software engineerin...

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作者： Chaves, Rafael O. Favero, Elói L. Da Tavares, Emanuel M. C. Oliveira, Sandro R.B. Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering ITEC UFPA Belém Pará Brazil Postgraduate Program in Computer Science ICEN UFPA Belém Pará Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9780769543598

Develop new games without having to start from scratch has been made possible by using game engines, since they offer a number of specialized components and optimized functions which are common in games. However, one realizes that process simulation games have not taken advantage of these technologies. This paper aims to demonstrate the results of the development of a software process simulation component called Software Process Simulator Machine (SPSM), which focuses on help and motivate software process educational game development through the addressing of main generic requirements for process simulation software. © 2010 IEEE.

关键词： Software design

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