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Getting Practical With Causal Mechanisms: The application of Process-Tracing Under Real-World evaluation Constraints

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New Directions for evaluation 2020年第167期2020卷 45-58页

作者： Raimondo, Estelle Independent Evaluation Group United States International Program for Development Evaluation Training (IPDET) United States EES United States

Over the past decade, the field of development evaluation has seen a renewed interest in methodological approaches that can answer compelling causal questions about what works, for whom, and why. development evaluators have notably started to experiment with Bayesian Process Tracing to unpack, test, and enhance their comprehension of causal mechanisms triggered by development interventions. This chapter conveys one such experience of applying Bayesian Process Tracing to the study of citizen engagement interventions within a conditional cash transfer program under real-world evaluation conditions. The chapter builds on this experience to discuss the benefits, challenges, and potential for the applicability of this approach under real-world evaluation conditions of time, money, and political constraints. © 2020 The World Bank. New Directions for evaluation © 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC

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Component Criticality Rating of a Subsea Manifold using FMECA 32nd

Component Criticality Rating of a Subsea Manifold using FMEC...

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32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2022

作者： Nicolau, Andressa S. Martins, Maximiano C. Paulo, Fernando F. Melo, Frutuoso E. Schleder, Adriana M. Martins, Marcelo R. De Barros, Leonardo O. Orlowski, Rene Thiago C. COPPE Graduate Program of Nuclear Engineering Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil LabRisco Analysis Evaluation and Risk Management Laboratory Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department University of Sao Paulo Sao Paulo Brazil CENPES Research and Development Center of Petrobras Petrobras Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9789811851834

Subsea manifold is a metallic structure fixed to the seabed, in which valves and accessory equipment are installed that make it possible to couple Wet Christmas Trees and other production systems (such as Pipeline End Manifold, Pipeline End Termination and risers);it is required during the completion and production of oil and gas wells. The failure of the subsea manifold can cause serious damage to the environment and human health, as well as stop production causing the loss of large foreign exchange, so ensuring its integrity is extremely important for the sector. In this article a Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis is presented for the criticality classification of the components of a typical subsea manifold cluster, Pipeline end manifold and Pipeline end termination. The final effect of equipment failure in the manifold was evaluated as a function of production interruption, production reduction, rupture, environmental pollution, plugging, leakage and structural collapse. Different means of detection were considered. The results of this study provide information about the weakness of the subsea manifold equipment. It is expected that this paper can contribute to future analysis of similar equipment and means to contribute to future work involving risk analysis, and inspection maintenance plan. © 2022 ESREL2022 Organizers. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore.

关键词： Christmas trees (wellheads)

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Completion of 6-mo isoniazid preventive treatment among eligible under six children:A cross-sectional study,Lagos,Nigeria

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2023年第1期11卷 104-115页

作者： Victor Abiola Adepoju Ademola Adelekan Aderonke Agbaje Femi Quaitey Tobi Ademola-Kay Ann Uduak Udoekpo Olusola Daniel Sokoya Department of HIV and Infectious Diseases Jhpiego NigeriaFederal Capital TerritoryAbuja 900918Nigeria Department of Research Bluegate Research InstituteIbadan 211271Oyo StateNigeria Clinical Services Institute of Human Virology of NigeriaAbuja 900918Nigeria Department of HIV and Infectious Diseases Jhpiego NigeriaUyo 520108AkwaIbomNigeria Adolescent and Youth Care Youth Development and Empowerment InitiativeLagos 23401Nigeria Monitoring and Evaluation Jhpiego NigeriaUyo 520108AkwaIbomNigeria Lagos State Tuberculosis Buruli Ulcer and Leprosy Control ProgramIkeja 100001LagosNigeria

BACKGROUND Nigeria is one of the thirty high burden countries with significant contribution to the global childhood tuberculosis *** annual risk for children could be as high as 4%particularly in high tuberculosis(TB)prevalent ***(INH)Preventive Therapy has been shown to prevent TB incidence but data on its implementation among children are *** To determine the completion of INH among under six children that were exposed to adults with smear positive pulmonary TB in Lagos,*** This was a hospital-based retrospective cross-sectional review of 265 medical records of eligible children<6 years old enrolled for INH across 32 private hospitals in Lagos,*** study took place between July and September *** was collected on independent variables(age,gender,type of facility,TB screening,dose and weight)and outcome variables(INH outcome and proportion lost to follow up across months 1-6 of INH treatment).RESULTS About 53.8%of the participants were female,95.4%were screened for TB and none was diagnosed of having *** participants’age ranged from 1 to 72 mo with a mean of 36.01±19.67 mo,and 40.2%were between the ages of 1-24 *** 155(59.2%)of the 262 participants initiated on INH completed the six-month ***,107(41.0%)children were lost to follow-up at the end of the sixth *** the cumulative 107 loss to follow-up while on INH,largest drop-offs were reported at the end of month 2,52(49%)followed by 20(19%),17(16%),11(10.2%)and 7(6.5%)at months 3,4,5 and 6 *** analysis showed that there was no significant association between age,gender,type of facility and completion of INH treatment(P>0.005).CONCLUSION This study demonstrated suboptimal INH completion rate among children with only 6 out of 10 children initiated on INH who completed a 6-mo treatment in Lagos,*** huge drop-offs in the first 2 mo of INH calls for innovative strategies such as the use of 60-d INH calen

关键词： Isoniazid Child Tuberculosis Treatment Outcome Completion Latent tuberculosis Dosage

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Adaptability of Automated Information Systems by the development Sector in Developing Countries: A Case Study

Adaptability of Automated Information Systems by the Develop...

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2021 International Conference on Computing, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, ICE Cube 2021

作者： Ahmed, Bilal Haq, Bushra Ali, Kamran Iqbal, Mazhar Mercy Corps Pakistan Monitoring Evaluation & Learning Quetta Pakistan FICT BUITEMS Quetta Pakistan Middlesex University Faculty of Science Technology London United Kingdom Ltd Program Development Quality Assurance Quetta Pakistan

ISBN: (纸本)9781665401548

The information technology has significantly transformed and enhanced the transparency, quality, and accountability of data in various sectors. The automation reduced data manipulation and enabled a data-driven decision-making environment based on the facts, trends, and statistics. The USAID's Data Quality Standards ensured the validity, integrity, precision, reliability, and timeliness of data stored in both automated and non-automated systems. In this research, a case study is discussed, focusing on the status of adaptability of automated information systems by the development sector in developing countries. The research identified the status-quo of availability of automated and non-automated information systems, the challenges in the adaptation of the systems, and tendency of the organizations in adaptation of the automated systems. The results articulated that many organizations have adapted both non-automated and automated information systems, and there is high tendency in adaptation of the automated information systems by development sector specially in the developing countries, like Pakistan. However, lack of specific budget and technical staff is a challenge during the transition from non-automated to, and the utilization of, automated information systems. © 2021 IEEE.

关键词： Information systems

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Anticipated need, demand, and supply of doctors and beds in China: approaching a turning point

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Discover Health Systems 2025年第1期4卷 1-19页

作者： Wang, Quan Liu, Siqi Yang, Xiaochen Gong, Chao Zhang, Wentian Yang, Li Li, Hui Sun, Qiang Tangcharoensathien, Viroj Centre for Health Management and Policy Research School of Public Health Cheeloo College of Medicine Shandong University Jinan China National Health Commission (NHC) Key Lab of Health Economics and Policy Research Shandong University Jinan China Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation (IHPME) Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of Toronto Toronto Canada Center of Health System and Policy Institute of Medical Information & Library Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College Beijing China School of Public Health Peking University Beijing China Beijing Institute for Health Development Peking University Beijing China China National Health Development Research Center National Health Commission of China Beijing China International Health Policy Program Ministry of Public Health Nonthaburi Thailand

Over the past decade, China has experienced a surge in doctors and beds, along with significant increase in healthcare utilization. This study compares the need-based and demand-based projections with supply of doctors and beds in China from 2021 to 2025. We also evaluate the adequacy and equitable distribution of doctors and beds. By utilizing public data from 2008 to 2018, we employed the health need method, health demand method, and trend projection to estimate the need and demand for and supply of doctors and beds in China. By 2025, the projected need-based, demand-based, and supply of doctors will be 5.93 million, 3.89 million, and 4.40 million, respectively. Correspondingly, bed projections stand at 7.27 million, 6.58 million, and 11.06 million. The study found an inclination toward hospital care, amplified by the need and demand for doctors and beds in hospital sector. Notably, the findings indicate 64.0% and 87.5% of incremental doctors and beds supply will be in hospital sector by 2025, intensifying towards a hospital-centric healthcare system. Considering current trajectories, this study reveals an excess supply of doctors and beds in China by 2025, with widening disparities that favour inefficient hospitals than primary care institutions. We recommend the government to emphasize the importance of optimal investment and allocation of doctors and beds between hospital and primary care sectors, reform the payment method in favour of primary care, and reorient public preferences for hospital services, by strengthening the capacity and quality of primary sector in order to gain population’s trust and confidence.

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P418: Novel presentation of congenital bile acid synthesis defect-3 with skeletal abnormalities and hypotonia

Genetics in Medicine Open

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Genetics in Medicine Open 2025年 3卷 103285-103285页

作者： Marshall, Hope Black, Jennifer Lebel, Robert Roger Razawich, Kristin Norton College of Medicine SUNY Upstate Medical University Center for Development Behavior and Genetics SUNY Upstate Medical University Advanced Practice Services Child Abuse Referral and Evaluation Program SUNY Upstate Medical University

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极端干旱与食草昆虫对草原群落的交互作用受干旱模式的影响

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2024年第3期17卷 128-140页

作者： Ye Luo Yuguang Ke Hongqiang Wang Chong Xu Qian Gu Qiang Yu Melinda D.Smith Rajabboy Madrimov Nuriddin Samatov Wei Yang Honghui Wu State Key Laboratory of Effcient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation Ministry of Agriculture and Rural AffairsInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China School of Grassland Science Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083China Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO 80523USA Research Institute of Environment and Nature Conservation Technologies of the Ministry of Ecology Environmental Protectionand Climate Change of the Republic of UzbekistanTashkent 100043Uzbekistan Institute of Microbiology of the Academy of Sciences Tashkent 100128Uzbekistan Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China

极端干旱和食草昆虫可以共同影响植物群落,并且它们的交互作用可能受到干旱模式的影响。然而,目前尚缺乏相关的观测证据。本研究以半干旱草原为研究对象,通过控制实验探讨了不同极端干旱模式与食草昆虫的交互作用对植物群落的影响。实... 详细信息

极端干旱和食草昆虫可以共同影响植物群落,并且它们的交互作用可能受到干旱模式的影响。然而,目前尚缺乏相关的观测证据。本研究以半干旱草原为研究对象,通过控制实验探讨了不同极端干旱模式与食草昆虫的交互作用对植物群落的影响。实验设置了3种干旱处理,分别为对照(自然降雨量)、慢性干旱(生长季5–8月减少66%降雨量)和急性干旱(6–7月完全无降雨)。在各小区设置了两种食草昆虫处理,分别是有食草昆虫和无食草昆虫。结果表明,食草昆虫和极端干旱及二者的交互作用对物种丰富度无显著影响。食草昆虫缓解了慢性干旱对总盖度的负面影响,而这种缓解作用在急性干旱下较低。食草昆虫对慢性干旱带来的负面效应具有更强的缓解作用,这主要是因为食草昆虫导致慢性干旱下适口性较高的杂类草(具有较低叶片碳含量、叶片干物质含量,以及较低叶片淀粉、钙、镁、锰含量)的大幅降低,进而降低了禾草的负面效应。上述结果表明,干旱和食草昆虫的交互作用受干旱模式的影响。通过调节植物的适口性来控制食草昆虫的采食行为,可以减轻极端干旱对草原生态系统的影响。

关键词：急性干旱慢性干旱半干旱草原食草昆虫极端气候

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Value of Information Analysis for External Validation of Risk Prediction Models

arXiv

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Sadatsafavi, Mohsen Lee, Tae Yoon Wynants, Laure Vickers, Andrew Gustafson, Paul Respiratory Evaluation Sciences Program Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences University of British Columbia VancouverBC Canada Department of Epidemiology CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute Maastricht University Maastricht Netherlands Department of Development and Regeneration KU Leuven Leuven Belgium Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center New YorkNY United States Department of Statistics University of British Columbia VancouverBC Canada

Background: Before being used to inform patient care, a risk prediction model needs to be validated in a representative sample from the target population. The finite size of the validation sample entails that there is uncertainty with respect to estimates of model performance. We apply value-of-information methodology as a framework to quantify the consequence of such uncertainty in terms of NB. Methods: We define the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) for model validation as the expected loss in NB due to not confidently knowing which of the alternative decisions confers the highest NB at a given risk threshold. We propose methods for EVPI calculations based on Bayesian or ordinary bootstrapping of NBs, as well as an asymptotic approach supported by the central limit theorem. We conducted brief simulation studies to compare the performance of these methods, and used subsets of data from an international clinical trial for predicting mortality after myocardial infarction as a case study. Results: The three computation methods generated similar EVPI values in simulation studies. In the case study, at the pre-specified threshold of 0.02, the best decision with current information would be to use the model, with an expected incremental NB of 0.0020 over treating all. At this threshold, EVPI was 0.0005 (a relative EVPI of 25%). When scaled to the annual number of heart attacks in the US, this corresponds to a loss of 400 true positives, or extra 19,600 false positives per year, indicating the value of further model validation. As expected, the validation EVPI generally declined with larger samples. Conclusion: Value-of-information methods can be applied to the NB calculated during external validation of clinical prediction models to provide a decision-theoretic perspective to the consequences of uncertainty. © 2022, CC BY.

关键词： Decision theory

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Rubrics in program evaluation

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evaluation Journal of Australasia 2018年第1期18卷 21-44页

作者： Martens, Krystin S.R. The Centre for Program Evaluation at the University of Melbourne Australia Verstehen Evaluation and Development LLC United States

Rubrics are well-established tools used in a variety of educational settings, such as student assessment, teacher performance, and curriculum review. This study investigates the extent to which and how rubrics are being used in program evaluation. After exploring the background, or etymology, of the word rubric, a review of literature is conducted. Results reveal that rubric use in program evaluation is relatively rare, although increasing. Rubrics are predominately used in education and health program evaluation to transform data from one form to another, to characterize organizational functioning, and to derive explicitly evaluative conclusions. program evaluators use rubrics during data collection and data analysis study phases, and to synthesizing findings into conclusions. This paper is the first systematic study of the use of rubrics in program evaluation. It presents a picture of how program evaluation practitioners and scholars are using or discussing rubrics. © The Author(s) 2018.

关键词： evaluation-specific methodology program evaluation research on evaluation rubric

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内蒙古草原优势物种光合速率对极端干旱的响应

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2024年第3期17卷 5-15页

作者： Yalong Shi Yuanbo Cao Honghui Wu Chong Xu Qiang Yu Xiaoan Zuo Xingguo Han Melinda D.Smith Alan K.Knapp Chengjie Wang Guodong Han State Key Laboratory of Effcient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Arable Land Quality Monitoring and Evaluation Ministry of Agriculture and Rural AffairsInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China China Rida Investment and Development Group Corp Ltd Beijing 100040China School of Grassland Science Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083China Urat Desert-grassland Research Station Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093China Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO 80523USA College of Grassland Resource and EnvironmentalInner Mongolia Agricultural UniversityHohhot 010011China

评估极端干旱对优势植物物种光合速率(Pn)的影响对于我们理解极端干旱影响生态系统功能的机制至关重要。极端干旱可能由降雨量减少或降雨频率减少造成。这两种不同模式的极端干旱可能造成不同的影响。此外,不同草原类型可能对这两种极... 详细信息

评估极端干旱对优势植物物种光合速率(Pn)的影响对于我们理解极端干旱影响生态系统功能的机制至关重要。极端干旱可能由降雨量减少或降雨频率减少造成。这两种不同模式的极端干旱可能造成不同的影响。此外,不同草原类型可能对这两种极端干旱模式表现出不同的敏感性。然而,目前尚不清楚这两种极端干旱模式对草原优势植物物种Pn的影响有何差异,以及在不同草原类型这两种不同模式的极端干旱的效应是否改变。为此,我们于2014年在内蒙古草原两个不同类型的草原(荒漠草原vs.典型草原)站点各进行了一项多年的极端干旱(CHR:将生长季期间每次降雨事件的降雨量减少66%***:完全排除生长季内一段较短时间的降水)模拟实验。于2017年的7月和8月,我们在这两个草原站点各测量了两种优势物种的Pn。结果发现,CHR和INT均显著降低了优势物种的Pn。无论草原类型如何,INT对Pn造成的负面影响都更大。在荒漠草原,极端干旱对Pn的负面影响普遍大于典型草原,尤其是对于CHR处理下的羊草(Leymus chinensis)。这些结果表明,与降雨量减少相比,降雨频率减少所引起的极端干旱对Pn的负面影响更大。草地类型可能会改变极端干旱模式效应的程度,但不会改变其方向。这些发现强调了应对未来极端干旱的草原生态系统管理应考虑极端干旱模式和草地类型的影响。

关键词：极端气候荒漠草原典型草原极端干旱模式季节性干旱

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