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Exploring the digital footprints of migration: insights from google trends and protection seekers’ applications to Germany

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Journal of Population Research 2025年第2期42卷 1-11页

作者： Erokhin, Dmitry International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria

This study investigates the potential of using Google Trends data to understand migration dynamics, focusing on people seeking protection in Germany between 2015 and 2019. By analyzing the relationship between changes in migration flows, expressed as percentage changes, and online search interest in Germany from origin countries, the study explores how digital behavior may reflect migration intentions. A weak but statistically significant positive correlation is observed, with regression analyses indicating a stronger relationship when controlling for year- and country-fixed effects. Notably, the coefficient increases markedly when focusing specifically on the top 10 origin countries, highlighting the potential of digital indicators in capturing migration intentions during acute migratory crises. The findings support the hypothesis that spikes in online search interest could signal interest in Germany among people seeking protection prior to migration. Despite limitations such as the reliance on relative search interest and low predictive power in the simple model, the study demonstrates the potential utility of digital data as a supplementary tool in migration research. Integrating such insights with traditional data sources can enhance understanding of the multifaceted drivers behind migration flows. © The Author(s) 2025.

关键词： Asylum applications Destination selection Digital data Early warning signals Germany Google trends Information-seeking behavior Migration dynamics Migration patterns Migration research

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Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 2024年第2期8卷 351-383页

作者： Yokomatsu, Muneta Schinko, Thomas Mochizuki, Junko Rezai, Armon Advancing Systems Analysis Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria Population and Just Societies Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria Institute for Political Economy of Public Policy Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) Vienna Austria

This study develops a dynamic model of climate-related disaster impacts, considering multidimensional household heterogeneity, for analyzing changes in growth and inequality in low-income countries. Focusing on human capital development, the study demonstrates the multiple impacts of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies on human capital investment, including the effect of schooling opportunities for households constrained by the subsistence consumption constraint. Through numerical simulations performed for two economies that differ in terms of human capital, modeled after Madagascar and Fiji, it is illustrated that the possibilities of involuntary unemployment and the work-learning choice drive the diversity in macroeconomic impacts of a disaster. In an economy characterized by low levels of human capital, a disaster could cause an increase in labor supply in the immediate aftermath but interrupt human capital formation, impeding long-term growth and human capital formation. Such a result contradicts prevailing intuition by demonstrating that a disaster occurring in an economy under recession may not result in a large adverse GDP impact in the short run but may negatively impact growth in the long run. On such a path, a policy of development in DRR infrastructure with appropriate taxation could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital-investment opportunities for the poor.

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Risk-Layering for Indirect Effects

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international Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第5期12卷 770-778页

作者： Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler Karina Reiter IIASA-International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg.Austria

Environmental risks are one of the greatest threats in the twenty-first *** in the last years,the cascading impacts and risks associated with such events have received great attention as economic losses and consequences have mounted in their *** concerns about these ripple effects are rising,strategies to prevent and manage indirect risks are in urgent ***,such effects are currently barely considered in most countries and can seriously threaten global agendas such as achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 or the targets set out in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction *** discuss how the concept of risk-layering,which,though already applied in disaster risk management,could be expanded to include indirect *** point out some of the benefits,limitations,and ways forward for using this *** do so,we first delineate the transition of the risk-layering concept,which originated from the insurance industry,from its original use to its application in a wider *** bring special focus to the application of risk-layering in disaster risk management and identify strategies that allow for the inclusion of indirect *** main suggestion is that,while a probabilistic approach is appropriate for evaluating direct risks,a focus on connectedness is appropriate for indirect risks,which still allows for an easy link to direct ***,so we argue,facilitates more comprehensive risk management systems apt to deal with the multi-dimensional challenges ahead.

关键词： Connectedness Indirect risks Natural hazards and disasters Risk-layering Risk management

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Collecting volunteered geographic information from the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS):experiences from the CAMALIOT project

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international Journal of Digital Earth 2023年第1期16卷 2818-2841页

作者： Linda See Benedikt Soja Grzegorz Klopotek Tobias Sturn Rudi Weinacker Santosh Karanam Ivelina Georgieva Yuanxin Pan Laura Crocetti Markus Rothacher Vicente Navarro Steffen Fritz Ian McCallum Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA)LaxenburgAustria Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry ETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland Navigation Science Office European Space Agency(ESA)MadridSpain

Raw observations(carrier-phase and code observations)from the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)can now be accessed from Android mobile phones(Version 7.0 onwards).This paves the way for GNSS data to be utilized for low-cost precise positioning or in ionospheric or tropospheric *** paper presents results from data collection campaigns using the CAMALIOT mobile *** the frst campaign,116.3 billion measurements from 11,828 mobile devices were collected from all *** participation decreased during the second campaign,data are still being collected *** this contribution,we demonstrate the potential of volunteered geographic information(VGl)from mobile phones to fill data gaps in geodetic station networks that collect GNSS data,*** Brazil,but also how the data can provide a denser set of observations than current networks in countries across *** also show that mobile phones capable of dual-frequency reception,which is an emerging technology that can provide a richer source of GNSS data,are contributing in a substantial ***,we present the results from a survey of participants to indicate that participation is diverse in terms of backgrounds and geography,where the dominant motivation for participation is to contribute to scientific research.

关键词： Citizen science crowdsourcing volunteered geographicinformation(VGl) global navigation satellite system(GNSS) mobile apps Earth observation

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Harmonizing decisions in wind farm management to provide a stable energy supply 9

Harmonizing decisions in wind farm management to provide a s...

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9th international Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sciences and Industry, MCSI 2024

作者： Zhang, Zixuan Makowski, Marek Nahorski, Zbigniew Granat, Janusz East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai China Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences Warsaw Poland International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria Warsaw University of Technology Warsaw Poland

ISBN: (纸本)9798350377224

Variable renewable energy generation requires management to provide a stable energy supply. The management consists of making decisions at different time scales;harmonization of such decisions is the main challenge addressed in the paper. The paper presents a mathematical programming model supporting the harmonization of the wind farm decision-making at three different time scales: (1) one-time investment in the energy storage system, (2) annual commitment of constant electricity supply for an industrial partner, and (3) operational (hourly) decisions on energy flows within the plant. The model prototype was tested on the rational configuration of a hydrogen-based energy storage system composed of electrolyzers, hydrogen tanks, and fuel *** model optimization provides the set of decisions maximizing the annual revenue: (1) the number of devices (of different types of each considered kind of device), i.e., the optimal configuration of the storage system;(2) the annually committed constant hourly energy supply, and (3) the operational decisions on energy flows within the wind farm, as well as an optional use of the energy adjusting market for handling temporal energy surplus or deficit. © 2024 IEEE.

关键词： Hydrogen storage

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Research on Well-being:Measuring“Good Life”,Shifting Values,and Cross-cultural Applicability

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Journal of Psychological Research 2023年第1期5卷 17-19页

作者： Anastasia Aldelina Lijadi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis LaxenburgA-2361Austria

The concept of well-being has evolved over the several decades as research continued to reveal its multidimensional,dynamic,person-specific,and culture-specific nature,including most recently,the ecological embeddedness of ***-being encompasses how well people live with regard to people’s physical,social,and mental conditions,the fulfillment of their basic needs and capabilities,and the opportunities and resources to which they have *** use well-being research to understand why some humans thrive,while others do not.

关键词： has continued while

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analysis of technology pathway of China's liquid fuel production with consideration of energy supply security and carbon price

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Journal of Management Science and Engineering 2023年第1期8卷 1-14页

作者： Bingqing Ding Marek Makowski Jinyang Zhao Hongtao Ren Behnam Zakeri Tieju Ma School of Business East China University of Science and TechnologyShanghai200237China International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1A-2361LaxenburgAustria Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of SciencesNewelska 601-447WarsawPoland

Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been *** levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of *** such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this *** results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three *** the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is *** a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more *** results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.

关键词： Liquid fuel production System optimization model Energy supply security Carbon prices

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Ladies or Gents First? Gender Differences in Electric Vehicle Adoption in India

SSRN

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SSRN 2024年

作者： Deka, Chayasmita Dutta, Mrinal Kanti Guwahati India International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA Laxenburg Austria

Rising extreme climatic events have necessitated the adoption of low-carbon consumption in different carbon-intensive sectors. Electric vehicles (EVs) instead of petrol/diesel vehicles can significantly decarbonize the transport sector. Studies have outlined the socio-psychological factors influencing intention to adopt EVs, often controlling for demographic factors. Using 1112 samples from the state of Assam in India, this study analyzes how men and women develop a pro-environmental intention to adopt EVs, using structural equation modeling (SEM) and mediation analyses, and several direct and indirect intention pathways were identified. Attitude weighs higher than subjective norms for women, while subjective norms weigh heavily on men’s intention to adopt EVs. Personal norms, awareness of consequences, and environmental concerns also influence women’s intention to buy EVs. Personal vulnerability from climate change triggers men’s pro-environmental intentions more than women's. This paper highlights that the gender-based intention formation pathways will help design focused rather than a one-size-fits-all policy. © 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change

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Complexity science meets Earth system

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Science Bulletin 2025年第1期70卷 19-24页

作者： Jingfang Fan Jun Meng Xiaosong Chen Hans Joachim Schellnhuber School of Systems Science/Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany School of Science Beijing University of Posts and TelecommunicationsBeijing 100876China International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg 2361Austria

The Earth’s climate system operates across multiple scales,driven by intricate interactions among natural processes and human *** these dynamics is crucial for predicting future climate scenarios(days to decades)and their impacts on global environments and *** interactions span across atmospheric circulation,ocean currents,geological processes,and biological systems,influencing global climate variability and regional weather patterns[1].

关键词： Earth climate weather

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Handling parameter uncertainty in long-term technology-mix planning models 11

Handling parameter uncertainty in long-term technology-mix p...

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11th IEEE international Conference on Intelligent systems, IS 2022

作者： Nahorski, Zbigniew Makowski, Marek Ding, Bingqing Ren, Hongtao Polish Academy of Sciences Warsaw School of Information Technology Systems Research Institute Warsaw Poland Polish Academy of Sciences International Institute for Applied System Analysis Warsaw Systems Research Institute Laxenburg Austria East China University of Science and Technology International Institute for Applied System Analysis Shanghai Austria

ISBN: (纸本)9781665456562

The raw material prices are key parameters of long-term technology-mix planning models. Some of such prices, in particular of the crude oil, dramatically change in periods much shorter than the planning horizon. Therefore, approaches based on price prediction methods or on price scenarios are unsuitable for planning the technology-mix because changing an implemented mix is usually impracticable;thus the mix can hardly be adapted to changing *** paper proposes a novel approach to handling uncertain model parameters, motivated by planning technologies for production of liquid fuels in China that is nowadays based mainly on imported crude oil. The method augments the earlier developed model by finding such a fixed crude-oil price that minimizes regret caused by inevitable difference between the assumed fixed price and actually diverse prices during operations of the planned technology *** paper outlines the adopted technology planning model, defines the regret function, and illustrates its use by simple examples. Thanks to the modular structure of the proposed approach, it is rather easy to experiment with diverse regret functions as well as different technology-mix models. © 2022 IEEE.

关键词： Crude oil

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