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Local Sequential MCMC for Data Assimilation with Applications in Geoscience

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Ruzayqat, Hamza Knio, Omar Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a new data assimilation (DA) scheme based on a sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) DA technique [36] which is provably convergent and has been recently used for filtering, particularly for high-dimensional non-linear, and potentially, non-Gaussian state-space models. Unlike particle filters, which can be considered exact methods and can be used for filtering non-linear, non-Gaussian models, SMCMC does not assign weights to the samples/particles, and therefore, the method does not suffer from the issue of weight-degeneracy when a relatively small number of samples is used. We design a localization approach within the SMCMC framework that focuses on regions where observations are located and restricts the transition densities included in the filtering distribution of the state to these regions. This results in immensely reducing the effective degrees of freedom and thus improving the efficiency. We test the new technique on high-dimensional (d ∼ 104 − 105) linear Gaussian model and non-linear shallow water models with Gaussian noise with real and synthetic observations. For two of the numerical examples, the observations mimic the data generated by the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission led by NASA, which is a swath of ocean height observations that changes location at every assimilation time step. We also use a set of ocean drifters' real observations in which the drifters are moving according the ocean kinematics and assumed to have uncertain locations at the time of assimilation. We show that when higher accuracy is required, the proposed algorithm is superior in terms of efficiency and accuracy over competing ensemble methods and the original SMCMC *** Codes 62M20, 60G35, 60J20, 94A12, 93E11, 65C40 © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Markov chains

Stochastic Dynamics and Probability Analysis for a Generalized Epidemic Model with Environmental Noise

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Boukanjime, Brahim Maama, Mohamed Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Economic Calculations Hassan First University of Settat Morocco Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Saudi Arabia

In this paper we consider a stochastic SEIQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered) epidemic model with a generalized incidence function. Using the Lyapunov method, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution to the model, ensuring that it remains well-defined over time. Through the application of Young’s inequality and Chebyshev’s inequality, we demonstrate the concepts of stochastic ultimate boundedness and stochastic permanence, providing insights into the long-term behavior of the epidemic dynamics under random perturbations. Furthermore, we derive conditions for stochastic extinction, which describes scenarios where the epidemic may eventually die out, and V-geometric ergodicity, which indicates the rate at which the system’s state converges to its equilibrium. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to verify our theoretical results and assess the model’s behavior under different parameters. Copyright © 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Stochastic models

Unbiased and Multilevel Methods for a Class of Diffusions Partially Observed via Marked Point Processes

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Alvarez, Miguel Jasra, Ajay Ruzayqat, Hamza Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955 Saudi Arabia

In this article we consider the filtering problem associated to partially observed diffusions, with observations following a marked point process. In the model, the data form a point process with observation times that have its intensity driven by a diffusion, with the associated marks also depending upon the diffusion process. We assume that one must resort to time-discretizing the diffusion process and develop particle and multilevel particle filters to recursively approximate the filter. In particular, we prove that our multilevel particle filter can achieve a mean square error (MSE) of O(∈2) (∈ > 0 and arbitrary) with a cost of O(∈-2.5) versus using a particle filter which has a cost of O(∈-3) to achieve the same MSE. We then show how this methodology can be extended to give unbiased (that is with no time-discretization error) estimators of the filter, which are proved to have finite variance and with high-probability have finite cost. Finally, we extend our methodology to the problem of online static-parameter estimation. Key words: Unbiased Methods, Multilevel Monte Carlo, Non-Linear Filtering, Point Processes, Parameter *** Codes 60G55, 60G35, 62M20, 62F30 © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Diffusion

Bayesian Parameter Inference for Partially Observed Stochastic Volterra Equations

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Jasra, Ajay Ruzayqat, Hamza Wu, Amin Applied Mathematics & Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955 Saudi Arabia

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference for a type of partially observed stochastic Volterra equation (SVE). SVEs are found in many areas such as physics and mathematical finance. In the latter field they can be used to represent long memory in unobserved volatility processes. In many cases of practical interest, SVEs must be time-discretized and then parameter inference is based upon the posterior associated to this time-discretized process. Based upon recent studies on time-discretization of SVEs (e.g. [24]) we use Euler-Maruyama methods for the afore-mentioned discretization. We then show how multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods [19] can be applied in this context. In the examples we study, we give a proof that shows that the cost to achieve a 4 mean square error (MSE) of O(ϵ2), ϵ > 0, is O(ϵ− 4/2H+1 ), where H is the Hurst parameter. If one uses a single level MCMC method then the cost is O(ϵ−2(2H+3)/ 2H+1 ) to achieve the same MSE. We illustrate these results in the context of state-space and stochastic volatility models, with the latter applied to real *** Codes 62F15, 62M20, 60J10, 60J22, 65C40 © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Mean square error

Unbiased Parameter Estimation for Partially Observed Diffusions

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Awadelkarim, Elsiddig Jasra, Ajay Ruzayqat, Hamza Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia

In this article we consider the estimation of static parameters for partially observed diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, we assume that one must time-discretize the partially observed diffusion process and work with the model with bias and consider maximizing the resulting log-likelihood. Using a novel double randomization scheme, based upon Markovian stochastic approximation we develop a new method to unbiasedly estimate the static parameters, that is, to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator with no time discretization bias. Under assumptions we prove that our estimator is unbiased and investigate the method in several numerical examples, showing that it can empirically out-perform existing unbiased *** Codes 60J22, 62M05, 65C40, 62M20 © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Parameter estimation

Antithetic Multilevel Particle Filters

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Jasra, Ajay Maama, Mohamed Ombao, Hernando Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program United States Statistics Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia

In this paper we consider the filtering of partially observed multi-dimensional diffusion processes that are observed regularly at discrete times. This is a challenging problem which requires the use of advanced numerical schemes based upon time-discretization of the diffusion process and then the application of particle filters. Perhaps the state-of-the-art method for moderate dimensional problems is the multilevel particle filter of [12]. This is a method that combines multilevel Monte Carlo and particle filters. The approach in that article is based intrinsically upon an Euler discretization method. We develop a new particle filter based upon the antithetic truncated Milstein scheme of [10]. We show that for a class of diffusion problems, for ϵ > 0 given, that the cost to produce a mean square error (MSE) in estimation of the filter, of O(ϵ2) is O(ϵ−2 log(ϵ)2). In the case of multidimensional diffusions with non-constant diffusion coefficient, the method of [12] has a cost of O(ϵ−2.5) to achieve the same MSE. We support our theory with numerical results in several examples. Copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Mean square error

Multilevel Particle Filters for Partially Observed McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Awadelkarim, Elsiddig Jasra, Ajay Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shenzhen China

In this paper we consider the filtering problem associated to partially observed McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The model consists of data that are observed at regular and discrete times and the objective is to compute the conditional expectation of (functionals) of the solutions of the SDE at the current time. This problem, even the ordinary SDE case is challenging and requires numerical approximations. Based upon the ideas in [3, 12] we develop a new particle filter (PF) and multilevel particle filter (MLPF) to approximate the afore-mentioned expectations. We prove under assumptions that, for ϵ > 0, to obtain a mean square error of O(ϵ2) the PF has a cost per-observation time of O(ϵ−5) and the MLPF costs O(ϵ−4) (best case) or O(ϵ−4 log(ϵ)2) (worst case). Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Mean square error

Thermal disorder and phonon softening in the ferroelectric phase transition of lead titanate

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Xie, Pinchen Chen, Yixiao Weinan, E. Car, Roberto Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton University PrincetonNJ08544 United States AI for Science Institute Beijing China Center for Machine Learning Research School of Mathematical Sciences Peking University Beijing China Department of Chemistry Department of Physics Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton Materials Institute Princeton University PrincetonNJ08544 United States

We report an extensive molecular dynamics study of ab-initio quality of the ferroelectric phase transition in crystalline PbTiO3. We model anharmonicity accurately in terms of potential energy and polarization surfaces trained on density functional theory data with modern machine learning techniques. Our simulations demonstrate that the transition has a strong order-disorder character, in agreement with diffraction experiments, and provide fresh insight into the approach to equilibrium upon crossing the transition temperature. We find that the macroscopic polarization appears/disappears due to dipolar switching at the nanometer scale. We also compute the infrared optical absorption spectra in both the ferroelectric and the paraelectric phases, finding good agreement with the experimental Raman frequencies. For a long time, the almost ideal displacive character of the soft mode detected by Raman scattering in the paraelectric phase has been contrasted with the order-disorder character of the transition suggested by diffraction. We settle this issue by showing that the soft mode coexists with a strong Debye relaxation due to the thermal disordering of the dipoles. The Debye relaxation feature is centered at zero frequency and appears near the transition temperature in both the ferroelectric and the paraelectric phases. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Ferroelectricity

An Improved Unbiased Particle Filter

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Jasra, Ajay Maama, Mohamed Ombao, Hernando Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia Statistics Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia

In this paper we consider the filtering of partially observed multi-dimensional diffusion processes that are observed regularly at discrete times. We assume that, for numerical reasons, one has to time-discretize the diffusion process which typically leads to filtering that is subject to discretization bias. The approach in [16] establishes that when only having access to the time discretized diffusion it is possible to remove the discretization bias with an estimator of finite variance. We improve on the method in [16] by introducing a modified estimator based on the recent work of [17]. We show that this new estimator is unbiased and has finite variance. Moreover, we conjecture and verify in numerical simulations that substantial gains are obtained. That is, for a given mean square error (MSE) and a particular class of multi-dimensional diffusion, the cost to achieve the said MSE falls. Copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Mean square error