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Multilevel Monte Carlo for a class of Partially Observed Processes in Neuroscience

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Maama, Mohamed Jasra, Ajay Kamatani, Kengo Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong CN Shenzhen China Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo190-0014 Japan

In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to a class of partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDE) driven by jump processes. Such type of models can be routinely found in applications, of which we focus upon the case of neuroscience. The data are assumed to be observed regularly in time and driven by the SDE model with unknown parameters. In practice the SDE may not have an analytically tractable solution and this leads naturally to a time-discretization. We adapt the multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo method of [15], which works with a hierarchy of time discretizations and show empirically and theoretically that this is preferable to using one single time discretization. The improvement is in terms of the computational cost needed to obtain a pre-specified numerical error. Our approach is illustrated on models applied to examples of Bayesian inference problems using both simulated and real observed data from neuroscience. Copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Stochastic systems

Coarse-graining conformational dynamics with multi-dimensional generalized Langevin equation: how, when, and why

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Xie, Pinchen Qiu, Yunrui Weinan, E. Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton University PrincetonNJ08544 United States Department of Chemistry University of Wisconsin-Madison MadisonWI53706 United States AI for Science Institute Beijing100080 China Center for Machine Learning Research School of Mathematical Sciences Peking University Beijing100084 China

A data-driven ab initio generalized Langevin equation (AIGLE) approach is developed to learn and simulate high-dimensional, heterogeneous, coarse-grained conformational dynamics. Constrained by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the approach can build coarse-grained models in dynamical consistency with all-atom molecular dynamics. We also propose practical criteria for AIGLE to enforce long-term dynamical consistency. Case studies of a toy polymer, with 20 coarse-grained sites, and the alanine dipeptide, with two dihedral angles, elucidate why one should adopt AIGLE or its Markovian limit for modeling coarse-grained conformational dynamics in practice. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Coarse-grained modeling

Ab Initio Generalized Langevin Equation

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Xie, Pinchen Car, Roberto Weinan, E. Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton University PrincetonNJ08544 United States Department of Chemistry Department of Physics Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton Institute for the Science and Technology of Materials Princeton University PrincetonNJ08544 United States AI for Science Institute Beijing China Center for Machine Learning Research School of Mathematical Sciences Peking University Beijing China

We introduce a machine learning-based approach called ab initio generalized Langevin equation (AIGLE) to model the dynamics of slow collective variables in materials and molecules. In this scheme, the parameters are learned from atomistic simulations based on ab initio quantum mechanical models. Force field, memory kernel, and noise generator are constructed in the context of the Mori-Zwanzig formalism, under the constraint of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Combined with deep potential molecular dynamics and electronic density functional theory, this approach opens the way to multi-scale modeling in a variety of situations. Here, we demonstrate this capability with a study of two mesoscale processes in crystalline lead titanate, namely the field-driven dynamics of a planar ferroelectric domain wall, and the dynamics of an extensive lattice of coarse-grained electric dipoles. In the first case, AIGLE extends the reach of ab initio simulations to a regime of noise-driven motions not accessible to molecular dynamics. In the second case, AIGLE deals with an extensive set of collective variables by adopting a local approximation for the memory kernel and retaining only short-range noise correlations. The scheme is computationally more efficient than molecular dynamics by several orders of magnitude, and mimics the microscopic dynamics at low frequencies where it reproduces accurately the dominant far-infrared absorption frequency. © 2022, CC BY.

关键词： Molecular dynamics

On the Particle Approximation of Lagged Feynman-Kac Formulae

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Awadelkarim, Elsiddig Caffarel, Michel Moral, Pierre Del Jasra, Ajay Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia University of Toulouse CNRS-Lab. de Chimie et Physique Quantiques Toulouse31062 France Centre de Recherche Inria Bordeaux Sud-Ouest Talence33405 France School of Data Science The Chinese University Hong Kong Shenzhen China

In this paper we examine the numerical approximation of the limiting invariant measure associated with Feynman-Kac formulae. These are expressed in a discrete time formulation and are associated with a Markov chain and a potential function. The typical application considered here is the computation of eigenvalues associated with non-negative operators as found, for example, in physics or particle simulation of rare-events. We focus on a novel lagged approximation of this invariant measure, based upon the introduction of a ratio of time-averaged Feynman-Kac marginals associated with a positive operator iterated l ∈ N times;a lagged Feynman-Kac formula. This estimator and its approximation using Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) have been extensively employed in the physics literature. In short, DMC is an iterative algorithm involving N ∈ N particles or walkers simulated in parallel, that undergo sampling and resampling operations. In this work, it is shown that for the DMC approximation of the lagged Feynman-Kac formula, one has an almost sure characterization of the L1-error as the time parameter (iteration) goes to infinity and this is at most of O(exp{−κl}/N), for_ κ > 0. In addition a non-asymptotic in time, and time uniform L1−bound is proved which is O(l/√N). We also prove a novel central limit theorem to give a characterization of the exact asymptotic in time variance. This analysis demonstrates that the strategy used in physics, namely, to run DMC with N and l small and, for long time enough, is mathematically justified. Our results also suggest how one should choose N and l in practice. We emphasize that these results are not restricted to physical applications;they have broad relevance to the general problem of particle simulation of the Feynman-Kac formula, which is utilized in a great variety of scientific and engineering fields. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Eigenvalues and eigenfunctions

Bayesian Parameter Inference for Partially Observed Diffusions using Multilevel Stochastic Runge-Kutta Methods

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Moral, Pierre Del Hu, Shulan Jasra, Ajay Ruzayqat, Hamza Wang, Xinyu Institut de Mathematiques de Bordeaux FR Bordeaux33405 France School of Mathematics and Statistics Wenlan School of Business China Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia Zhongnan University of Economics and Law CN China

We consider the problem of Bayesian estimation of static parameters associated to a partially and discretely observed diffusion process. We assume that the exact transition dynamics of the diffusion process are unavailable, even up-to an unbiased estimator and that one must time-discretize the diffusion process. In such scenarios it has been shown how one can introduce the multilevel Monte Carlo method to reduce the cost to compute posterior expected values of the parameters for a pre-specified mean square error (MSE);see [12]. These afore-mentioned methods rely on upon the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme which is well-known in numerical analysis to have slow convergence properties. We adapt stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK) methods for Bayesian parameter estimation of static parameters for diffusions. This can be implemented in high-dimensions of the diffusion and seemingly under-appreciated in the uncertainty quantification and statistics fields. For a class of diffusions and SRK methods, we consider the estimation of the posterior expectation of the parameters. We prove that to achieve a MSE of O(ϵ2), for ϵ > 0 given, the associated work is O(ϵ−2). Whilst the latter is achievable for the Milstein scheme, this method is often not applicable for diffusions in dimension larger than two. We also illustrate our methodology in several numerical examples. Copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Diffusion

Empowering Optimal Control with Machine Learning: A Perspective from Model Predictive Control

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Weinan, E. Han, Jiequn Long, Jihao AI for Science Institute Beijing China Center for Machine Learning Research School of Mathematical Sciences Peking University Beijing China Center for Computational Mathematics Flatiron Institute New York10010 United States Program of Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton University Princeton08544 United States

Solving complex optimal control problems have confronted computational challenges for a long time. Recent advances in machine learning have provided us with new opportunities to address these challenges. This paper takes model predictive control, a popular optimal control method, as the primary example to survey recent progress that leverages machine learning techniques to empower optimal control solvers. We also discuss some of the main challenges encountered when applying machine learning to develop more robust optimal control algorithms. Copyright © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Machine learning

On Time Uniform Wong-Zakai Approximation Theorems

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Del Moral, Pierre Hu, Shulan Jasra, Ajay Ruzayqat, Hamza Wang, Xinyu Institut de Mathematiques de Bordeaux Bordeaux33405 France School of Statistics and Mathematics Zhongnan University of Economics and Law China Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia Wenlan School of Business Zhongnan University of Economics and Law China

We consider the long time behavior of Wong-Zakai approximations of stochastic differential equations. These piecewise smooth diffusion approximations are of great importance in many areas, such as those with ordinary differential equations associated to random smooth fluctuations;e.g. robust filtering problems. In many examples, the mean error estimate bounds that have been derived in the literature can grow exponentially with respect to the time horizon. We show in a simple example that indeed mean error estimates do explode exponentially in the time parameter, i.e. in that case a Wong-Zakai approximation is only useful for extremely short time intervals. Under spectral conditions, we present some quantitative time-uniform convergence theorems, i.e. time-uniform mean error bounds, yielding what seems to be the first results of this type for Wong-Zakai diffusion *** Codes 60H35(Primary), 65C30(Secondary) Copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Brownian movement

Multi-index Sequential Monte Carlo ratio estimators for Bayesian Inverse problems

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Law, Kody J.H. Walton, Neil Yang, Shangda Jasra, Ajay School of Mathematics University of Manchester ManchesterM13 9PL United Kingdom Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. This setting is ubiquitous across science and engineering applications, for example in the context of Bayesian inference where a physics-based model governed by an intractable partial differential equation (PDE) appears in the likelihood. A multi-index Sequential Monte Carlo (MISMC) method is used to construct ratio estimators which provably enjoy the complexity improvements of multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC) as well as the efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for inference. In particular, the proposed method provably achieves the canonical complexity of MSE−1, while single level methods require MSE−ξ for ξ > 1. This is illustrated on examples of Bayesian inverse problems with an elliptic PDE forward model in 1 and 2 spatial dimensions, where ξ = 5/4 and ξ = 3/2, respectively. It is also illustrated on more challenging log Gaussian process models, where single level complexity is approximately ξ = 9/4 and multilevel Monte Carlo (or MIMC with an inappropriate index set) gives ξ = 5/4 + ω, for any ω > 0, whereas our method is again canonical. We also provide novel theoretical verification of the product-form convergence results which MIMC requires for Gaussian processes built in spaces of mixed regularity defined in the spectral domain, which facilitates acceleration with fast Fourier transform methods via a cumulant embedding strategy, and may be of independent interest in the context of spatial statistics and machine learning. Copyright © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Inverse problems

Sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Lagrangian Data Assimilation with Applications to Unknown Data Locations

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Ruzayqat, Hamza Beskos, Alexandros Crisan, Dan Jasra, Ajay Kantas, Nikolas Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program Computer Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal23955-6900 Saudi Arabia Department of Statistical Science University College London LondonWC1E 6BT United Kingdom Department of Mathematics Imperial College London LondonSW7 2AZ United Kingdom

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is high-dimensional, but the model for the signal yields longer-range time dependencies through the observation locations. Motivated by this model we revisit a lesser-known and provably convergent computational methodology from [4, 11, 28] that uses sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains. We extend this methodology for data filtering problems with unknown observation locations. We benchmark our algorithms on Linear Gaussian state space models against competing ensemble methods and demonstrate a significant improvement in both execution speed and accuracy. Finally, we implement a realistic case study on a high-dimensional rotating shallow water model (of about 104 - 105 dimensions) with real and synthetic data. The data is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and contains observations from ocean drifters in a domain of the Atlantic Ocean restricted to the longitude and latitude intervals [-51◦,-41◦], [17◦,27◦] *** Codes 62M20, 60G35, 60J20, 94A12, 93E11, 65C40 © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Location