Experts suggest that Observations are key to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in climate research as they form the very basis for any evidence of climate change and provide a source of information about the way in whic...
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Experts suggest that Observations are key to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in climate research as they form the very basis for any evidence of climate change and provide a source of information about the way in which physical processes are modeled and understood. The uncertainties in climate observations pose a set of methodological and practical challenges for both the analysis of long-term trends and the comparison between data and model simulations. A workshop has been organized in January 2012 to discuss the issues surrounding uncertainty quantification in the context of climate observations. This workshop provides an opportunity to engage with and understand the different concerns and perspectives from the academic mathematical and statistical communities and climate data product scientists and providers. Major results of the event include the realization of interest in collaboration and identification of possible steps to work toward the mutual goal of characterizing uncertainty in climate observation.
Aim: The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions...
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Aim: The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location: Conterminous United States. Time Period: 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied: Twenty-five species of mammals. Methods: We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results: Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard-mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine-scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities o
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