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arXiv 2023年

作者： Omori, Ryosuke Ito, Koichi Kanemitsu, Shunsuke Kimura, Ryusuke Iwasa, Yoh Division of Bioinformatics International Institute for Zoonosis Control Hokkaido University Hokkaido Sapporo001-0020 Japan Faculty of Environmental Earth Science Hokkaido University Hokkaido Sapporo060-0810 Japan Data Management & Planning Office Product Development Management Office Recruit Co. Ltd Chiyoda-ku Tokyo100-6640 Japan SaaS Data Solution Unit Data Management & Planning Office Product Development Management Office Recruit Co. Ltd Chiyoda-ku Tokyo100-6640 Japan Department of Biology Faculty of Science Kyushu University 744 Motooka Nishi-ku Fukuoka819-0395 Japan

To predict epidemics’ future course in changing situations, understanding human mobility patterns is important, notwithstanding decision-making process uncertainties owing to difficulties in quantifying people’s mobility change decision timings, which make the mobility-epidemic causal relationship unclear. We used the ‘mobility avoidance index’ to investigate time-series changes during Japan’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 (eight waves until February 2023) as a previous study, which measured this index using accommodation reservation data—booking/cancellation timings—was able to quantify the timing of decision-making for mobility changes. Our analyses revealed two general patterns: 1) the index increased/decreased proportional to logarithms of reported cases during the first wave, conforming with Weber–Fechner’s psychophysics law;2) its slope against the change in the number of reported cases had similar values among the waves, but its intercepts changed as the waves passed, suggesting that people neglected reported cases lower than a certain threshold for behavioural decision-making. We shifted the threshold level as the waves passed, and named this pattern ‘shift of negligible epidemic’ rule. It is the first pattern quantitatively observed, that possesses decision making tendencies for future mobility avoidance. Our findings contribute to constructing a mathematical model, which simultaneously considers epidemics and human mobility dynamics. © 2023, CC BY-NC-ND.

关键词： Coronavirus

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