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Frontiers in Operations: News Event-Driven Forecasting of Commodity Prices

Manufacturing and Service Operations Management 2024年第4期26卷 1286-1305页

作者： Chakraborty, Sunandan Jagabathula, Srikanth Subramanian, Lakshminarayanan Venkataraman, Ashwin Luddy School of Informatics Computing and Engineering Indiana University IndianapolisIN46202 United States Stern School of Business New York University New YorkNY10012 United States Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences New York University New YorkNY10012 United States Naveen Jindal School of Management University of Texas at Dallas RichardsonTX75080 United States

Problem definition: Commodity prices have exhibited significant volatility in recent times, which poses an exogenous risk factor for commodity-processing and commodity-trading firms. Accurate commodity price forecasts can help firms leverage data-driven procurement policies that incorporate the underlying price volatility for financial and operational hedging decisions. However, historical prices alone are insufficient to obtain reasonable forecasts because of the extreme volatility. Methodology/results: Building on the hypothesis that commodity prices are driven by real-world events, we propose a method that automatically extracts events from news articles and combines them with price data using a neural network-based predictive model to forecast prices. In addition to achieving a high prediction accuracy that outperforms several benchmarks (by up to 13%), our proposed model is also interpretable, which allows us to identify meaningful events driving the price fluctuations. We found that the events frequently associated with major fluctuations in the price include "natural," "hike," "policy," and "elections," all of which are known drivers of price change. We used a corpus containing about 1.6 million news articles of a major Indian newspaper spanning 15 years and daily prices of four crops (onion, potato, rice, and wheat) in India to perform this study. Our proposed approach is flexible and can be used to predict other time series data, such as disease incidence levels or macroeconomic indicators, that are also influenced by real-world events. Managerial implications: Firms can leverage price forecasts from our system to design inventory and procurement policies in the face of uncertain commodity prices. Commodity merchants can also use the forecasts to design optimal storage policies for physical trading of commodities when prices are volatile. Our findings can also significantly impact policymakers, who can leverage the information of impending price changes and

关键词： Forecasting

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A Model Transformation Approach for Converting a Trait-based Model to a Markov Chain Model 8

A Model Transformation Approach for Converting a Trait-based...

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8th IEEE International Conference on Recent Advances and Innovations in engineering, ICRAIE 2023

作者： Hadi, Nur Diana Madinah Binti Ab Ismail, Azlan Diah, Norizan Mat Md Saad, Mastura SEGI University and Colleges School of IT Faculty of Engineering Built Environment and Information Technology Selangor Petaling Jaya47810 Malaysia School of Computing Sciences College of Computing Informatics and Mathematics Selangor Shah Alam40450 Malaysia Selangor Shah Alam40450 Malaysia

ISBN: (纸本)9798350315516

This paper discusses the difficulty of transforming a trait-based model to a Markov Chain Model when the source model is a behavioral model. Therefore, we propose an innovative approach aimed at transforming trait-based models into Markov Chain Models. Our method hinges on the utilization of the Trait Component Ensemble Language (TCOEL) and the establishment of a unified model transformation specification at the meta-model level. Through this approach, we facilitate the seamless conversion of trait-based models into Markov Chain Models, thereby enhancing the adaptability and scope of the original models. The trait-based model presents quite challenging for transforming the behavioral traits directly into verification language. To overcome this difficulty, we analyzed the language behaviors using the fire brigade case study. Then, we used the description to identify and map the appropriate component in order to develop a CTMC model. Finally, we used PRISM model checker to undertake verification. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： Markov processes

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Exploring the Potential of Generative Adversarial Networks for Synthetic Medical Data Generation 31

Exploring the Potential of Generative Adversarial Networks f...

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31st Telecommunications Forum, TELFOR 2023

作者： Jovanovic, Luka Petrovic, Aleksandar Zivkovic, Tamara Antonijevic, Milos Bacanin, Nebojsa Zivkovic, Miodrag Singidunum University Faculty of Tehnical Sciences Belgrade Serbia Singidunum University Faculty of Informatics and Computing Belgrade Serbia University of Belgrade School of Electrical Engineering Belgrade Serbia

ISBN: (纸本)9798350303131

Proper artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) model implementation and training are highly reliant on quality input data. However, the high costs of clinical studies and increasing privacy concerns limit the availability of medical data to researchers. This work explores the potential of applying generative adversarial networks (GAN) for generating synthetic medical data based on publicly available real-world datasets. Synthetic data is generated based on real-world observations and used to train several contemporary ML and AI models. These models are subjected to comparison with models trained on real data. Both trained models are evaluated under identical conditions on real-world testing data. These well-known, high-quality datasets are explored in this study covering diabetes and heart disease. While models trained on synthetic data show a slight decrease in objective performance, they still demonstrate viably accurate outcomes. This suggests that the introduced approach presents a potential stepping stone towards improvising data availability for researchers while respecting patients' best interests and patient privacy. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： Generative adversarial networks

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"Socially Assistive Robot Privacy Model": A Multi-model Approach to Evaluating Socially Assistive Robot Privacy Concerns 16th

"Socially Assistive Robot Privacy Model": A Multi-model Appr...

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16th International Conference on Social Robotics, ICSR + AI 2024

作者： Collins, Sawyer Stanojević, Čedomir Bennett, Casey Henkel, Zachary Henkel, Kenna Baugus Abbott, Nikki M. Bethel, Cindy L. Śabanović, Selma Luddy School of Informatics Computing and Engineering Indiana University Bloomington BloomingtonIN United States College of Behavioral Social and Health Sciences Clemson University ClemsonSC United States College of Computing and Digital Media DePaul University ChicagoIL United States Department of Computer Science and Engineering Mississippi State University StarkvilleMS United States

ISBN: (纸本)9789819635214

As socially assistive robots (SARs) enter more diverse care settings, including users’ homes, it is critical to identify the shifting privacy risks and dimensions of privacy this technology and its data collection capabilities may affect. We propose a new model of privacy to address the complex nature of SARs as a multimodal technology within the healthcare space. To construct this new model, we combine a previous three-dimensional model from the healthcare literature and synthesize it with a seven-dimension technology-related model. We then use this new combined model to analyze self-report data from several workshops with prospective users of the dog-like robot Therabot to map out the dimensions of privacy identified as future concerns for clinicians and those living with depression. Finally, we suggest this model can be used in future studies to support the in-depth exploration of privacy implications of SARs within healthcare through discussions about privacy among clinicians, those receiving care, and robot designers. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2025.

关键词： Differential privacy

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Tangles in IOTA to make crypto currency transactions free and secure

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International Journal of Cloud computing 2022年第1期11卷 1-13页

作者： Anakath, A.S. Kannadasan, R. Prabakaran, N. Basha, M.S. Saleem Department of MCA EGS Pillai Engineering College Nagapattinam 611002 India School Computer Science and Engineering Vellore Institute of Technology Vellore632014 India Department of Computing and Informatics Mazoon College Muscat133 Oman

Blockchain introduction has made a revolutionary change in the crypto currency around the world but it has not delivered on its promises of free and faster transaction confirmation. Serguei Popov's proposal of using tangles, a directed acyclic graph, which essentially is considered to be the successor of blockchains and offers the required features like machine to machine micro payment and fee-less transaction. It requires the user to approve the previous two transactions in the web to participate in the network. This essentially eliminates the miners and the mining part form the currency exchange and provides the user or participants to do their transactions fee-less. Since the participant verifies the previous two transactions it also contributes to the security of the tangle. In this paper, features of internet of things application (IOTA) and all the improvements in it using tangles are discussed along with how it contributed to the security and how it enables the participants to have fee-less transactions is also discussed. Copyright © 2022 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

关键词： Distributed ledger

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Emotional Knowledge Self-Distillation in Dialogue

Emotional Knowledge Self-Distillation in Dialogue

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2025 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, ICASSP 2025

作者： Jian, Zhongquan Wang, Yancheng Wu, Weichao Yao, Junfeng Wang, Meihong Wu, Qingqiang School of Informatics Xiamen University Xiamen China School of Film Xiamen University Xiamen China School of Computing and Data Science Xiamen University Malaysia Selangor Malaysia School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering China University of Mining & Technology Beijing China Xiamen Key Laboratory of Intelligent Storage and Computing School of Informatics Xiamen University Xiamen China Key Laboratory of Digital Protection and Intelligent Processing of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Fujian and Taiwan Ministry of Culture and Tourism Xiamen China

ISBN: (纸本)9798350368741

Recognizing emotions in dialogues is vital for effective human-computer interaction, yet remains a challenging task in Natural Language Processing (NLP). Previous studies in Emotion Recognition in Conversation (ERC) have primarily focused on contextual features, while overlooking the importance of emotional features in emotion recognition. To address this gap, we focus on the role of emotional features in ERC and propose a novel method, Emotional Knowledge Self-Distillation (EmoKSD1), to enhance the model's emotional sensitivity. In EmoKSD, utterances are enriched with implicit 〈mask〉 tokens to represent conveyed emotions, allowing the distillation of emotional knowledge from explicit emotional tokens to implicit 〈mask〉 tokens, thereby enhancing the model's ability to perceive subtle emotions within the dialogue. Through thorough evaluations on two public ERC datasets (i.e., IEMOCAP and MELD) using proposed coarse-grained utterance distillation and fine-grained token distillation techniques, EmoKSD demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods, highlighting the significance of emotional features in ERC. © 2025 IEEE.

关键词： Dialogue System Emotion Recognition in Conversation Knowledge Distillation Natural Language Processing

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POAM: Probabilistic Online Attentive Mapping for Efficient Robotic Information Gathering

arXiv

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Chen, Weizhe Liu, Lantao Khardon, Roni Luddy School of Informatics Computing and Engineering Indiana University BloomingtonIN47408 United States

Gaussian Process (GP) models are widely used for Robotic Information Gathering (RIG) in exploring unknown environments due to their ability to model complex phenomena with non-parametric flexibility and accurately quantify prediction uncertainty. Previous work has developed informative planners and adaptive GP models to enhance the data efficiency of RIG by improving the robot’s sampling strategy to focus on informative regions in non-stationary environments. However, computational efficiency becomes a bottleneck when using GP models in large-scale environments with limited computational resources. We propose a framework – Probabilistic Online Attentive Mapping (POAM) – that leverages the modeling strengths of the non-stationary Attentive Kernel while achieving constant-time computational complexity for online decision-making. POAM guides the optimization process via variational Expectation Maximization, providing constant-time update rules for inducing inputs, variational parameters, and hyperparameters. Extensive experiments in active bathymetric mapping tasks demonstrate that POAM significantly improves computational efficiency, model accuracy, and uncertainty quantification capability compared to existing online sparse GP models. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Mapping

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A Feasible Compression Scheme for Bangla Natural Text

A Feasible Compression Scheme for Bangla Natural Text

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2023 IEEE International Conference on Innovative Data Communication Technologies and Application, ICIDCA 2023

作者： Mahmood, Md. Ashiq Amin, Md Ashiqul Nandi, Pallab Kumar Mondal, Bishwajit Kumar Institute of Information and Communication Technology Khulna University of Engineering & Technology Khulna Bangladesh School of Informatics Computing and Cyber System Northern Arizona University AZ United States

ISBN: (纸本)9798350397208

The most significant zone of study for Natural Language Processing (NLP) is text compression. Since the number of characters in Unicode are many, 16 bits are needed to process the entire code. This study suggests a useful method for compressing Bangla natural text called the 5 Bit Compression Scheme for Bangla Text(5BCS), which uses a 5-bit encoding method to change the 16-bit Bangla letters into a 5-bit format. This technique provides an encoding algorithm which representing the 16-bit Bangla characters to 5 bits by utilizing a query table. The query table contains 4 sets which comprises all the Bangla characters as well as transliterations and special symbols. An m-series technique is used for logically determining index of a given characters combination while translating characters into 5 bits. By utilizing the 5BCS, a natural text can be compressed by a maximum of 84%. The algorithm for decompress the compressed data to translate the original data is also detailed in this paper. Additionally, a comparison section is developed to compare our 5BCS technique with the widely used Huffman and LZW technique. The experimental result of the comparison looks very much optimistic. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： Signal encoding

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Autonomous Mapless Navigation on Uneven Terrains

arXiv

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Jardali, Hassan Ali, Mahmoud Liu, Lantao Luddy School of Informatics Computing and Engineering Indiana University BloomingtonIN47408 United States

We propose a new method for autonomous navigation in uneven terrains by utilizing a sparse Gaussian Process (SGP) based local perception model. The SGP local perception model is trained on local ranging observation (pointcloud) to learn the terrain elevation profile and extract the feasible navigation subgoals around the robot. Subsequently, a cost function, which prioritizes the safety of the robot in terms of keeping the robot’s roll and pitch angles bounded within a specified range, is used to select a safety-aware subgoal that leads the robot to its final destination. The algorithm is designed to run in real-time and is intensively evaluated in simulation and real-world experiments. The results compellingly demonstrate that our proposed algorithm consistently navigates uneven terrains with high efficiency and surpasses the performance of other planners. The code can be found here: https://***/3ov2r8. © 2024, CC BY.

关键词： Robots

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CORRECTIVE MAINTENANCE TIME MODEL OF THE 2-PARALLEL CONFIGURATION OF THE EARTH STATION SYSTEM USING CURVE FITTING 51

CORRECTIVE MAINTENANCE TIME MODEL OF THE 2-PARALLEL CONFIGUR...

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51st International Conference on Computers and Industrial engineering, CIE 2024

作者： Kamaruddin, Nur Fatin Syamimi Rahim, Nadirah Abdul Mansor, Mahayaudin M. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering International Islamic University Malaysia Jalan Gombak Kuala Lumpur Malaysia School of Mathematical Sciences College of Computing Informatics and Mathematics Universiti Teknologi MARA Shah Alam Malaysia

An Earth station system serves as a key hub in the ever-changing environment of satellite communication technology, allowing uninterrupted data interchange between the Earth and orbiting satellites. These systems are essential for various applications like telecommunications, remote sensing, and global positioning. In this research, a 2-parallel configuration is chosen for the Earth station system design because the literature suggests that it has the lowest operational cost and is reliably acceptable if compared to other parallel configurations. However, the 2-parallel configuration comes with the issue of care and upkeep, especially in the context of corrective maintenance time, which is the aim of this study. Corrective maintenance, or repairing components and systems after failure, is critical to the Earth station system operation. This study uses curve fitting techniques by using the Monte Carlo method from MATLAB software to foresee system component failures and predict their behavior over time. The useful insights can be extracted from previous maintenance data by using curve fitting, allowing one to make informed decisions regarding when and how to do maintenance. The results demonstrate the curve fitting of the combination of the corrective maintenance for seven subsystems with the mean time between failures (MTBF) of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years, and it is shown that the first-degree polynomial has the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which is 1.35. Furthermore, the corrective maintenance time model is developed not only to analyse component failures but also to assist in deriving appropriate maintenance guidelines in the future that can help system engineers repair the failed subsystem. © 2024 Computers and Industrial engineering. All rights reserved.

关键词： MATLAB

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