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Study on the COVID-19 epidemic in China's Mainland between November 2022 and January 2023,with prediction of its tendency

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2023年第1期5卷 39-44页

作者： Yao Bai Zhihang Peng Fengying Wei Zhen Jin Jinjie Wang Ximing Xu Xinyan Zhang Jun Xu Zixiong Ren Bulai Lu Zhaojun Wang Jianguo Xu Senzhong Huang Xi’an Center for Disease Control and Prevention Xi’an 710054ShaanxiChina Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166JiangsuChina School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Complex Systems Research Center Key Discipline of Computer Science and Technology of“Double-First-Class”Project of Shanxi ProvinceShanxi UniversityTaiyuan 030006ShanxiChina Nankai Institute of Economics Binhai Development InstituteNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University Chongqing 400010China Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jinzhou 121000LiaoningChina School of Statistics and Data Science Nankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Suzhou 215004JiangsuChina State Key Laboratory of Communicable Disease Prevention and Control National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China Institute of Public Health Nankai UniversityTianjin 300071China School of Statistics and Data Science ZhiYing Research Center for Health DataNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China

The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in China's Mainland between November 2022 and January 2023,based on reported data from December 9,2022,to January 30,2023,released by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 1,*** kinds of reported data were used for model fitting:the daily numbers of positive nucleic acid tests and deaths,and the daily number of hospital beds taken by COVID-19 *** was estimated that the overall infection rate was 87.54%and the overall case fatality rate was 0.078%–0.116%(median 0.100%).Assuming that a new COVID-19 epidemic outbreak would start in March or April of 2023,induced by a slightly more infectious mutant strain,we predicted a possible large rebound between September and October 2023,with a peak demand of between 800,000 and 900,000 inpatient *** no such new outbreak was induced by other variants,then the current COVID-19 epidemic course in China's Mainland would remain under control until the end of ***,it is suggested that the necessary medical resources be prepared to manage possible COVID-19 epidemic emergencies in the near future,especially for the period between September and October 2023.

关键词： COVID-19 Epidemic Infection rate Case fatality rate Prediction

Maximizing Area Coverage in Privacy-Preserving Worker Recruitment: A Prior Knowledge-Enhanced Geo-indistinguishable Approach

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IEEE Transactions on Information Forensics and Security 2025年 20卷 5138-5151页

作者： Zhang, Pengfei Cheng, Xiang Zhang, Zhikun Zhu, Youwen Zhang, Ji Anhui University of Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Digital Intelligent Technology for Unmanned Coal Mining the School of Computer Science and Engineering Anhui University of Science and Technology Huainan232001 China Yunnan University of Finance and Economics Yunnan Key Laboratory of Service Computing Yunnan 650221 China Key Laboratory of Equipment Data Security and Guarantee Technology Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Computing Power Network and Information Security Ministry of Education China Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications China Zhejiang University China Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics China University of Southern Queensland China

Worker recruitment for area coverage maximization, typically requires participants to upload location information, which can deter potential participation without proper protection. While existing studies resort to geo-indistinguishability to address this concern, they primarily focus on either specific task locations (Target Coverage) or operate under pre-defined recruitment quotas for an interested region (Area Coverage). These focuses not only yield suboptimal area coverage when scaled but also fail to leverage valuable prior knowledge in the form of participants’ noisy historical registered locations, to enhance both location obfuscation and worker identification processes. To address these limitations, we present WILTON, which optimizes area coverage under geo-indistinguishability by recruiting the minimum number of participants through the strategic utilization of noisy prior knowledge. In WILTON, to generate obfuscated locations, we propose a probabilistic and weight-aware input perturbation mechanism, which groups and weights prior locations rather than using only personal prior locations. To privately identify the recruited workers, we design a grid-based worker identification method, which provides a worst-case performance guarantee of ratio (Formula Presented) to the optimum. We provide a theoretical analysis of the privacy, utility, and complexity guarantees of WILTON. Experimental results over two real-world datasets and one synthetic dataset show that WILTON surpasses the state-of-the-arts by at least 8% in area coverage improvement. © 2005-2012 IEEE.

关键词： Knowledge acquisition

Nonparametrie Quantile Inference for Cause-specific Residual Life Function Under Length-biased Sampling

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Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 2020年第4期36卷 902-916页

作者： Fei-Peng ZHANG Cai-Yun FAN Yong ZHOU School of Economics and Finance Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'an 710049China School of Statistics and Information Shanghai University of International Business and EconomicsShanghai 201620China Key Laboratory of Advanced Theory and Application in Statistics and Data Science MOE&Academy of Statistics and Interdisciplinary SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200062China

This paper considers a competing risks model for right-censored and length-biased survival data from prevalent *** propose a nonparametric quantile inference procedure for cause-specific residual life distribution with competing risks *** also derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators of this quantile *** studies and the unemployment data demonstrate the practical utility of the methodology.

关键词： Length-biased data competing risks quantile residual life estimating equation

TC-RAG: Turing-Complete RAG's Case study on Medical LLM Systems

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Jiang, Xinke Fang, Yue Qiu, Rihong Zhang, Haoyu Xu, Yongxin Chen, Hao Zhang, Wentao Zhang, Ruizhe Fang, Yuchen Chu, Xu Zhao, Junfeng Wang, Yasha Key Laboratory of High Confidence Software Technologies Ministry of Education School of Computer Science Peking University Beijing China School of Statistics and Mathematics Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Wuhan China University of Chinese Academy of Science Beijing China School of Computer Science University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu China The Big Data Technology Research Center Nanhu Laboratory Jiaxing314002 China

In the pursuit of enhancing domain-specific Large Language Models (LLMs), Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a promising solution to mitigate issues such as hallucinations, outdated knowledge, and limited expertise in highly specialized queries. However, existing approaches to RAG fall short by neglecting system state variables, which are crucial for ensuring adaptive control, retrieval halting, and system convergence. In this paper, we introduce the Turing-Complete-RAG (TC-RAG) through rigorous proof, a novel framework that addresses these challenges by incorporating a Turing Complete System to manage state variables, thereby enabling more efficient and accurate knowledge retrieval. By leveraging a memory stack system with adaptive retrieval, reasoning, and planning capabilities, TC-RAG not only ensures the controlled halting of retrieval processes but also mitigates the accumulation of erroneous knowledge via Push and Pop actions. In the case study of the medical domain, our extensive experiments on real-world healthcare datasets demonstrate the superiority of TC-RAG over existing methods in accuracy by over 7.20%. Our dataset and code have been available at https://https://***/Artessay/SAMA. git. © 2024, CC BY-NC-SA.

关键词： Modeling languages

Healthcare 5.0 Multi-Party key Authentication Protocol Based on the Internet of Medical Things

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SSRN

SSRN 2024年

作者： Zhao, Xiaoran Peng, Changgen Tan, Weijie Ding, Hongfa The State Key Laboratory of Public Big Data College of Computer Science and Technology Guizhou University Guiyang 550025 China The Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology Ministry of Education Guizhou University Guiyang 550025 Chain The Information School Guizhou University of Finance and Economics Guiyang 550025 Chain

Protocols for authenticating keys in Healthcare 5.0 facilitate mutual authentication and uniformity in establishing a shared session key across medical wearable devices. Nevertheless, the frequent transmission of data from these sensor devices via unsafe channels triggers multiple security issues. Because of this, a number of authentication and key agreement solutions have been put forward. Nevertheless, the majority of existing schemes are only capable of facilitating authentication between a user and a wearable smart device. A user needing to simultaneously interact with numerous smart devices must begin several key agreement requests, leading to costs associated with computation and communication. In this paper, we propose a secure multi-party authentication key protocol for Internet of Medical Things. Specifically, in the proposed scheme, the three factors of smart cards, passwords and biometrics are used to authenticate users. The problem of key resistance to exposure is addressed by utilising bilinear pairs. Furthermore, since each session key between a user and various smart devices is established a single time, it means a user is required to send a solitary authentication request to these devices. Mathematical analysis confirms the reliability of the proposed scheme, noting its reduced computational and communication demands compared to similar approaches, vital for smart device networks with limited resources. © 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Authentication Protocol

Further results on permutation pentanomials over Fq3 in characteristic two

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arXiv 2025年

作者： Zhang, Tongliang Zheng, Lijing Wang, Hengtai Peng, Jie Li, Yanjun College of Science North China University of Science and Technology Hebei Tangshan063000 China Hebei Key Laboratory of Data Science and Application North China University of Science and Technology Hebei Tangshan063000 China School of Mathematics and Physics University of South China Hunan Hengyang421001 China Mathematics and Science College Shanghai Normal University Shanghai200234 China Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics Anhui University of Finance and Economics Anhui Bengbu233030 China

Let q = 2m. In a recent paper [31], Zhang and Zheng investigated several classes of permutation pentanomials of the form ϵ0xd0+L(ϵ1xd1+ϵ2xd2) over Fq3 (d0 = 1, 2, 4) from some certain linearized polynomial L(x) by using multivariate method and some techniques to determine the number of the solutions of some equations. They proposed an open problem that there are still some permutation pentanomials of that form have not been proven. In this paper, inspired by the idea of [12], we further characterize the permutation property of the pentanomials with the above form over Fq3 (d0 = 1, 2, 4). The techniques in this paper would be useful to investigate more new classes of permutation pentanomials. Copyright © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Polynomials

A new quantile treatment effect model for studying smoking effect on birth weight during Mother's pregnancy

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Journal of Management science and Engineering 2021年第3期6卷 336-343页

作者： Shengfang Tang Zongwu Cai Ying Fang Ming Lin Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics and Fujian Key Laboratory of Statistical Sciences Xiamen UniversityXiamen361005China Department of Economics University of KansasLawrenceKS66045USA Department of Statistics and Data Science School of EconomicsXiamen UniversityXiamen361005China

This paper proposes a new quantile regression model to characterize the heterogeneity for distributional effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on infant birth weight across different the mother's *** imposing a parametric restriction on the quantile functions of the potential outcome distributions conditional on the mother's age,we estimate the quantile treatment effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on her baby's birth weight across different age groups of *** results show strongly that the quantile effects of maternal smoking on low infant birth weight are negative and substantially heterogenous across different ages.

关键词： Birth weight Heterogeneity Quantile regression Smoking Treatment effect

On a fast consistent selection of nested models with possibly unnormalised probability densities

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arXiv 2025年

作者： Bian, Rong Chan, Kung-Sik Cheng, Bing Tong, Howell Academy of Mathematics and System Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China School of Mathematical Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science University of Iowa Iowa City United States AMSS Center for Forecasting Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Science Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Statistics London School of Economics and Political Science London United Kingdom Department of Statistics and Data Science Tsinghua University Beijing China

Models with unnormalized probability density functions are ubiquitous in statistics, artificial intelligence and many other fields. However, they face significant challenges in model selection if the normalizing constants are intractable. Existing methods to address this issue often incur high computational costs, either due to numerical approximations of normalizing constants or evaluation of bias corrections in information criteria. In this paper, we propose a novel and fast selection criterion, T-GIC, for nested models, allowing direct data sampling from a possibly unnormalized probability density function. T-GIC gives a consistent selection under mild regularity conditions and is computationally efficient, benefiting from a multiplying factor that depends only on the sample size and the model complexity. Extensive simulation studies and real-data applications demonstrate the efficacy of T-GIC in the selection of nested models with unnormalized probability densities. Copyright © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词：

On stochastic control problems with higher-order moments

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arXiv 2024年

作者： Wang, Yike Liu, Jingzhen Bensoussan, Alain Yiu, Ka-Fai Cedric Wei, Jiaqin School of Finance Chongqing Technology and Business University Chongqing400067 China China Institute for Actuarial Science Central University of Finance and Economics Beijing100081 China Naveen Jindal School of Management University of Texas at Dallas DallasTX75083 United States Department of Applied Mathematics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Kowloon Hunghom Hong Kong Key Laboratory of Advanced Theory and Application in Statistics and Data Science MOE School of Statistics East China Normal University Shanghai200241 China

In this paper, we focus on a class of time-inconsistent stochastic control problems, where the objective function includes the mean and several higher-order central moments of the terminal value of state. To tackle the time-inconsistency, we seek both the closed-loop and the open-loop Nash equilibrium controls as time-consistent solutions. We establish a partial differential equation (PDE) system for deriving a closed-loop Nash equilibrium control, which does not include the equilibrium value function and is different from the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations as in Björk et al. (finance Stoch. 21: 331-360, 2017). We show that our PDE system is equivalent to the extended HJB equations that seems difficult to be solved for our higher-order moment problems. In deriving an open-loop Nash equilibrium control, due to the non-separable higher-order moments in the objective function, we make some moment estimates in addition to the standard perturbation argument for developing a maximum principle. Then, the problem is reduced to solving a flow of forward-backward stochastic differential equations. In particular, we investigate linear controlled dynamics and some objective functions affine in the mean. The closed-loop and the open-loop Nash equilibrium controls are identical, which are independent of the state value, random path and the preference on the odd-order central moments. By sending the highest order of central moments to infinity, we obtain the time-consistent solutions to some control problems whose objective functions include some penalty functions for *** Codes Primary: 93E20, 91G80, Secondary: 91B08, 49N90 Copyright © 2024, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Nash equilibrium