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Eigen microstate analysis unveils climate dynamics

science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2025年第4期68卷 91-100页

作者： Hua Tu Shang Wang Jun Meng Yongwen Zhang Xiaosong Chen Deliang Chen Jingfang Fan School of Systems Science/Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Data Science Research Center Faculty of ScienceKunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650500China Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany

The earth's climate operates as a complex,dynamically interconnected system,driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings and modulated by nonlinear interactions and feedback *** study employs a theoretical framework and the Eigen Microstate(EM)approach of statistical physics to examine global surface temperature variations since 1948,as revealed by a global *** identified EMs significantly correlated with key climate phenomena such as the global monsoon system,tropical climates,and El Niñ*** analysis reveals that these EMs have increasingly influenced global surface temperature variations over recent decades,highlighting the critical roles of hemispheric differences,land-sea contrasts,and tropical climate fluctuations in a warming ***,we used model simulations from more than 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under three future climate scenarios to perform a comparative analysis of the changes in each EM *** results indicate that under future warming scenarios,tropical climate fluctuations will become increasingly dominant,while traditional hemispheric and monsoonal patterns may *** shift underscores the importance of understanding tropical dynamics and their impact on global climate from a physics-based *** study provides a new perspective on understanding and addressing global climate change,enhancing the theoretical foundation of this critical field,and yielding findings with significant practical implications for improving climate models and developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

关键词： statistical physics nonlinear dynamics complex systems climate change

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Machine learning for membrane bioreactor research:principles,methods,applications,and a tutorial

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Frontiers of Environmental science & Engineering 2025年第3期19卷 119-144页

作者： Yizhe Lai Kang Xiao Yifan He Xian Liu Jihua Tan Wenchao Xue Aiqian Zhang Xia Huang Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China Environmental Chemistry Faculty College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Department of Energy Environmentand Climate ChangeSchool of EnvironmentResourcesand DevelopmentAsian Institute of TechnologyP.O.Box 4Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Membrane fouling poses a significant challenge to the sustainable development of membrane bioreactor(MBR)technologies for wastewater *** accurate prediction of the membrane filtration process is of great importance for identifying and controlling *** learning methods address the limitations of traditional statistical approaches,such as low accuracy,poor generalization ability,and slow convergence,particularly in predicting complex filtration and fouling processes within the realm of big *** article provides an in-depth exposition of machine learning *** study then reviews advances in MBRs that utilize machine learning methods,including artificial neural networks(ANN),support vector machines(SVM),decision trees,and ensemble *** on current literature,this study summarizes and compares the model input and output characteristics(including foulant characteristics,solution environments,filtration conditions,operating conditions,and time factors),as well as the selection of models and optimization *** modeling procedures of SVM,random forest(RF),back propagation neural network(BPNN),long short-term memory(LSTM),and genetic algorithm-back propagation(GA-BP)methods are elucidated through a tutorial *** simulation results demonstrated that all five methods yielded accurate predictions with R2>***,the existing challenges in the implementation of machine learning models in MBRs were *** is notable that integration of deep learning,automated machine learning(AutoML)and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)may facilitate the deployment of models in practical engineering *** insights presented here are expected to facilitate the establishment of an intelligent control framework for MBR processes in future endeavors.

关键词： Membrane bioreactor Machine learning Pollutant removal Membrane fouling Model prediction

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Estimation of history moonquakes in Finsen crater from boulder tracks

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Acta Geophysica Sinica 2025年第4期68卷 1221-1233页

作者： Tao, Sha Zhu, BoJing Shi, YaoLin College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408 China Yunnan Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming650216 China Center for Astronomical Mega-Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100012 China

High-resolution images taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) show the existence of a large number of boulder tracks within the Finsen crater. Current research suggests that shallow moonquakes and meteorite impacts are likely to be the cause of boulder falls. This paper simulates the process of boulder rolling down a slope based on a simplified model, and provides the critical Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) required for boulder to start slope rolling under different conditions. The results show that some boulders will roll along the slope in one or more seismic wave periods. In this case, the critical PGA of the seismic wave required for the occurrence of the boulder slope rolling is related to the size of the boulder, the slope at the initial position, the dominant period of the seismic wave and the ratio of the horizontal and vertical peak ground acceleration. In other cases, the boulders may start jump rolling. Using high-resolution images taken by LRO to determine how the boulders fell, we can estimate the lower limit of the magnitude of moonquakes in this area. This paper provides the lower limit of the moonquake magnitude required for the boulders to start slope rolling under different conditions. A preliminary estimate of the lower limit of historical moonquake magnitude in the Finsen crater is made. © 2025 Editorial Office of Chinese Journal of Geophysics. All rights reserved.

关键词： earthquakes

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Anthropogenic adaptation measures expand suitable area for highland barley in Tibetan Plateau

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science Bulletin 2025年第9期70卷 1504-1512页

作者： Liu, Yujie Zhang, Ermei Pan, Tao Chen, Jiahao Gao, Yu Peñuelas, Josep Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049 China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications - National Research Council Edifici C Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona Bellaterra Barcelona08193 Spain

Understanding the driving mechanisms of crop suitability is critical for ensuring global food security, particularly in promoting the sustainable development of alpine agriculture and alpine civilizations. In contrast to climate factors, how anthropogenic adaptation measures affect crop suitability remains largely unknown. This overlooked mechanism may explain why climate-driven model simulations underestimate the upper altitude limit for highland barley compared with observed records. Here, we used two decades of site-based phenological observations on the Tibetan Plateau and biophysical modeling, finding that anthropogenic adaptation measures can expand suitable cropping limits. These measures mainly involve breeding genotypes with lower thermal units, which enhance the adaptability of highland barley phenology to cold climates. Such adaptation mechanisms clarify the conflict between thermal niche model predictions and the observed distribution of highland barley up to an altitude of 5000 m. Considering these mechanisms, we developed an explainable framework to predict the potential habitat of highland barley under current climates. Results showed that anthropogenic adaptation measures expanded the suitable cropping area for highland barley by 27 × 104 km2 and the upper altitude limit for highland barley could reliably increase by approximately 50 m. This observation-based evidence underscores the crucial roles of anthropogenic adaptation measures in expanding suitable cropping limits of crops and highlights its importance for supporting food security and simulating accurate crop suitability. © 2025 science China Press

关键词： Anthropogenic

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Spring Rapid Temperature Variability in Southern China: Characteristics, Decadal Trend and Associated Climate Impacts on Crop Yield

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International Journal of Climatology 2025年

作者： Yang, Xianke Zhang, Yixuan Tang, Haosu Huang, Ping Ling, Xiaoxia Peng, Shaobing Xiong, Dongliang MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River College of Plant Science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural University Hubei China Climate Center of Hubei Province Hubei Meteorological Bureau Hubei China Department of Geography University of Sheffield Sheffield United Kingdom Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Climate-related risks are shaped not only by changes in mean temperatures, but also by temperature variability, which raises the likelihood of extreme weather events with profound impacts on society and ecosystems. Previous studies have documented contrasting seasonal trend differences in summer and winter temperature variability across most land areas. However, spring—a phenologically sensitive season for agricultural systems—has received limited attention for its temperature variability. Focusing on the major rice-growing regions in southern China, this study employs three indices—daily temperature standard deviation (STD), day-to-day temperature variability (DTD) and rapid cooling events (RCE)—to analyse the decadal trends and causes of spring temperature variability and assess its climate effects on rice yield anomalies. Our results reveal decadal trends in the spatial distribution of temperature variability, with increasing frequency and intensity in the Yangtze River Basin and Yunnan Province, and a decreasing trend across much of South China, closely following regional climatological patterns. Overall, the frequency and intensity of RCE trend exhibit a "strong gets weaker, weak gets stronger" pattern, likely linked to increased STD trends caused by spatial non-uniformity of warming. Through a multiple regression statistical model employing dominance analysis, we find that climate factors, including both mean climate and climate variability, explained 19%–45% of the variance in provincial rice yield anomalies, with up to 13% of the explained variance attributable to spring climate factors related to temperature variability. This study underscores the critical role of spring temperature variability in climate resilience, highlights the urgent need to enhance the adaptability of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. © 2025 Royal Meteorological Society.

关键词： Logistic regression

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Predicting on the Extreme Precipitation in East and Southeast Asia during Summer 2022 from the Antecedent Soil Temperature Anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Climate 2025年第9期38卷 2109-2128页

作者： Kong, Xianghui Wang, Aihui Xue, Yongkang Wei, Nan Zhang, He Hu, Qin He, Juanxiong Bi, Xunqiang Chen, Yue Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan Province Chengdu China University of California Los AngelesCA United States School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan Province Chengdu China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Super Computer Center in Tianjin Tianjin China State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

It has demonstrated that May land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can serve as a predictor of June precipitation in downstream *** summer 2022, there was heavy precipitation (severe drought) in June (August) over southern China, coinciding with high May (July) LST/SUBT anomalies in *** the framework of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P), this study explores the causality between 2022 May (July) TP LST/SUBT and June (August) precipitation using an ensemble of land–atmosphere coupled model *** show that model prediction with imposed strongly positive May TP LST/SUBT (i.e., a triple) anomaly could produce 67% (46%) of June precipitation anomalies in South (northeast) China, while sea surface temperature (SST) effects account for 5% (51%).The atmosphere condensation heating and surface sensible heating due to TP LST/SUBT anomaly induce anomalous South Asian high, which moves eastward along with the Rossby ***, the above process enhances upward motion, convective instability, and water vapor transport, eventually be favorable for rainfall formation in South China and northeast *** Southeast Asia, it makes a downward movement, decrease in atmospheric water vapor, and unfavorable to the occurrence of ***, July TP LST/SUBT contributes to the prediction skill for August record-breaking drought in southern *** to SST effects, it is found that TP LST/SUBT effects significantly enhance the prediction skill for downstream region, suggesting that the TP land contributes an important source for subseasonal climate prediction. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Rivers

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High Abundance of Atmospheric Sulfonates Derived from Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles

ACS ES&T Air

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ACS ES&T Air 2025年第4期2卷 607-614页

作者： Shuang Chen Huixia Han Lihong Ren Yisheng Xu Libin Wu Yuanguan Gao Yuanbi Yi Xinping Yang Mingliang Fu Hang Yin Yan Ding Pingqing Fu State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences Beijing 100012 China；School of Earth System Science Tianjin University Tianjin 300072 China School of Earth System Science Tianjin University Tianjin 300072 China State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences Beijing 100012 China Department of Ocean Science and Center for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macau The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong SAR China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Vehicle Emission Control and Simulation Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences Beijing 100012 China

Particulate matter (PM) emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGV) pose a threat to both air quality and human health. However, the molecular compositions and chemical properties of these complex mixtures are poorly understood. In this study, we performed a detailed characterization of exhaust PM from LDGV at various speed phases at the molecular level by employing ultra-high-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. We found that with increasing speed, the number of organic compounds increased significantly, especially organic nitrogen-containing and sulfur-containing compounds. Moreover, the increase of speed leads to high temperature and high pressure in the cylinder, which in turn leads to a series of thermal cracking–polymerization–cyclization reactions, resulting in new particulate matter with more aromatic structures. In addition, considerable intermediate volatility organic compounds and semivolatile organic compounds were identified in the exhaust PM. Notably, we observed the presence of sulfonates in tailpipe particulate matter during low- or high-speed phases, which highlights a previously negligible source of organic sulfonates in the atmosphere.

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Late Cenozoic sedimentary processes in the Hetao Basin: Implications for far-field tectonic effects in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Geomorphology 2025年 482卷

作者： Xu, Qinmian Duan, Lianfeng Xin, Shouzhen Miao, Xiaodong Yi, Shuangwen Lu, Huayu School of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing University Nanjing 210023 China Tianjin Center China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation) Tianjin 300170 China Key Laboratory of Earth System Observation and Simulation of Henan Province School of Geography and Environmental Science Henan University Henan Kaifeng 475004 China

It is hypothesized that the developments of the Hetao Basin and the Shanxi Graben system were the far-field effects of the Cenozoic India-Asia collision. However, the sedimentary process responses of these two regions to the uplift of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau since the Late Miocene have rarely been investigated. Here, we conducted the first borehole (TX01) in the Hetao Basin, which penetrates Quaternary strata, with reliable magnetostratigraphic and multiproxy analyses. To investigate the far-field effects, we further compared the results with those of the Shanxi Graben system and the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Our results show the following: (1) The core TX01 documents the Brunhes, Olduvai and Gauss normal chrons, as well as the Matuyama reverse chron. The Matuyama/Brunhes and Gauss/Matuyama boundaries are identified at depths of 68.2 m and 246.9 m, respectively. (2) The sedimentary evolution of the core is characterized by the development of distinct depositional systems over time: an alluvial fan system (6.9–3.7 Ma), aeolian deposits (3.7–2.5 Ma), a braided river system (2.5–2.3 Ma), a shallow lacustrine system (2.3–0.4 Ma), and a deep-water and delta sedimentary system (from 0.4 Ma to the present). (3) These sedimentary systems comprise two distinct tectono-sedimentary cycles, reflecting two major phases of tectonic and sedimentary evolution. The first cycle, characterized by a coarsening-upwards alluvial fan (ca. 6.9–3.7 Ma), reflects the vertical slip of the basin and mountain. The second cycle, characterized by a coarse-fine-coarse fluvial-lacustrine sedimentary cycle (ca. 2.5–0.4 Ma), signifies extensional rifting of the basin. These cycles correspond to the development of intramontane basins and the integrated uplift of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. (4) The different sediment sequences and sediment accumulation rates observed in these two regional basins, as well as the different ages of the lacustrine facies reflecting the rift

关键词： Far-field tectonic effects Hetao Basin Magnetostratigraphy Tectono-sedimentary cycles Tibetan Plateau

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Vegetation feedbacks accelerated the late Miocene climate transition

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science Advances 2025年第18期11卷 eads4268页

作者： Zhang, Ran Guo, Jiaqi Bradshaw, Catherine D. Xu, Xiyan Shen, Tiantian Li, Shufeng Nie, Junsheng Zhang, Chunxia Li, Xiangyu Liu, Ze Zhang, Jian Jiang, Dabang Hu, Yongyun Sun, Jimin State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Department of Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing China The Global Systems Institute University of Exeter Exeter United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter United Kingdom College of Earth and Environmental Science Lanzhou University Lanzhou China CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Mengla China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental Studies China University of Geosciences Wuhan China Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System Key Lab of Submarine Geosciences and Prospecting Techniques MOE and College of Marine Geosciences Ocean University of China Qingdao China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The late Miocene was an important stage for the formation of modern-like ecological and environmental patterns. Proxy data from the middle to late Miocene reveal that large-scale cooling and drying occurred;however, the reasons for this climate transition remain unclear. Through a compilation of proxy data and climate simulations, our results indicate that atmospheric CO2 decline markedly decreased the temperature and reduced the precipitation in most of the land area, while the paleogeographic changes enhanced cooling at northern high latitudes and increased precipitation in East Asia, East Africa, and South America. In comparison, vegetation changes accelerated cooling at northern high latitudes (the maximum cooling exceeded 10°C) and modulated precipitation at low- and mid-latitude continents (the maximum decrease was close to 30%). This deepens the understanding of the mechanism of the late Miocene climate transition and highlights the importance of vegetation feedbacks during global climate change. Copyright © 2025 The Authors, some rights reserved.

关键词： Global warming

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Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2014年第1期31卷 95-109页

作者： HUANG Wenyu WANG Bin LI Lijuan DONG Li LIN Pengfei YU Yongqiang ZHOU Tianjun LIU Li XU Shiming XIA Kun PU Ye WANG Lu LIU Mimi SHEN Si HU Ning WANG Yong SUN Wenqi DONG Fang Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084

The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.

关键词： AMOC decadal variability deep convection FGOALS-g2

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