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Guiding principles for using satellite-derived maps in rangeland management

Rangelands 2022年第1期44卷 78-86页

作者： Allred, Brady W. Creutzburg, Megan K. Carlson, John C. Cole, Christopher J. Dovichin, Colin M. Duniway, Michael C. Jones, Matthew O. Maestas, Jeremy D. Naugle, David E. Nauman, Travis W. Okin, Gregory S. Reeves, Matthew C. Rigge, Matthew Savage, Shannon L. Twidwell, Dirac Uden, Daniel R. Zhou, Bo W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula 59812 MT United States Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group University of Montana Missoula 59812 MT United States Institute for Natural Resources Oregon State University Portland 97207 OR United States Bureau of Land Management Billings 59101 MT United States Bureau of Land Management National Operations Center Denver 80225 CO United States Bureau of Land Management Billings 59101 MT United States Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group University of Montana Missoula 59812 MT United States West National Technology Support Center USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Portland 97232 OR United States W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula 59812 MT United States US Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center Moab 84532 UT United States Department of Geography University of California Los Angeles 90095 CA United States USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Missoula 59801 MT United States US Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center Sioux Falls 57198 SD United States Bureau of Land Management National Operations Center Denver 80225 CO United States Department of Agronomy and Horticulture Center for Resilience in Agricultural Working Landscapes University of Nebraska-Lincoln 68583 NE United States School of Natural Resources Department of Agronomy and Horticulture Center for Resilience in Agricultural Working Landscapes University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln 68583 NE United States Department of Geography University of California Los Angeles 90095 CA United States

• Rangeland management has entered a new era with the accessibility and advancement of satellite-derived maps. • Maps provide a comprehensive view of rangelands in space and time, and challenge us to think critically about natural variability. • Here, we advance the practice of using satellite-derived maps with four guiding principles designed to increase end user confidence and thereby accessibility of these data for decision-making. © 2021 The Authors

关键词： heterogeneity mapping monitoring remote sensing

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A Non-Linear Dynamical–Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Air–Sea Element Fields in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

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Atmosphere 2014年第3期52卷 256-270页

作者： Mei Hong Ren Zhang Chen Chen Ma Dong Wang Chengzu Bai Jingzhong Min Yide Chenpages 256-270View full textDownload full textAccess optionsDOI:10.1080/07055900.2014.908765Published online: 09 May 2014Citing articles: 0Article Views: 11Article usage statistics combine cumulative total PDF downloads full-text HTML views from publication date (but no earlier than 25 Jun 2011 launch date of this website) to 28 Jul 2014. Article views are only counted from this site. Although these data are updated every 24 hours there may be a 48-hour delay before the most recent numbers are available.Article usage statistics combine cumulative total PDF downloads full-text HTML views from publication date (but no earlier than 25 Jun 2011 launch date of this website) to 28 Jul 2014. Article views are only counted from this site. Although these data are updated every 24 hours there may be a 48-hour delay before the most recent numbers are available.Further InformationAbstractReferencesRelated articles [a] Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing China[b] Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China[c] Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry Ministry of Education Department of Hydrosciences School of Earth Sciences and Engineering State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse Nanjing University Nanjing China[d] Nanjing University of Information Technology Nanjing China

ABSTRACTABSTRACTAiming at tackling the difficulty in establishing a sea surface temperature (SST) dynamical model, this study develops a non-linear dynamical–statistical model of SST fields and their correlative factors based on Genetic Algorithms (GA) and the dynamical system reconstruction idea, which greatly improves the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast model. Using Hadley SST data, sea surface wind (SSW) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the National centers for Environmental Prediction-National center for Environmental Research (NCEP-NCAR), with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time-space for reconstruction, we carry out numerical integral forecasting experiments for SST, SSW, and SLP fields. By statistical analysis of the forecasting experiments, we find that forecasts for less than 25 months perform better than longer term forecasts. Based on the model, we forecast SST, SSW, and SLP fields in September, October, and November 2014 and predict a weak La Niña event. This study explores a novel method for the complex atmosphere–ocean system.Résumé[Traduit par la rédaction] Dans le but de s'attaquer à la difficulté d’établir un modèle dynamique de la température de la surface de la mer (TSM), la présente étude met au point un modèle dynamique–statistique non linéaire des champs de TSM et de leurs facteurs corrélatifs basé sur des algorithmes génétiques et sur le principe de la reconstruction de système dynamique, qui améliore grandement le modèle de prévision de l'El Niño–Oscillation australe (ENSO). À partir des données de TSM du Centre Hadley ainsi que des données de vent à la surface de la mer (VSM) et de pression au niveau de la mer (PNM) du NCEP-NCAR (National centers for Environmental Prediction-National center for Environmental Research), avec un espace-temps de fonction orthogonale empirique pour la reconstruction, nous exécutons des expériences de prévision numériques intégrales pour les champs de TSM, de VSM et de PNM. Par l'analyse s

关键词： air-sea element field ENSO dynamical–statistical model Genetic Algorithm (GA)

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The 2022 report of synergetic roadmap on carbon neutrality and clean air for China:Accelerating transition in key sectors

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Environmental science and Ecotechnology 2024年第3期19卷 4-18页

作者： Yu Lei Zhicong Yin Xi Lu Qiang Zhang Jicheng Gong Bofeng Cai Cilan Cai Qimin Chai Huopo Chen Renjie Chen Shi Chen Wenhui Chen Jing Cheng Xiyuan Chi Hancheng Dai Xiangzhao Feng Guannan Geng Jianlin Hu Shan Hu Cunrui Huang Tiantian Li Wei Li Xiaomei Li Jun Liu Xin Liu Zhu Liu Jinghui Ma Yue Qin Dan Tong Xuhui Wang Xuying Wang Rui Wu Qingyang Xiao Yang Xie Xiaolong Xu Tao Xue Haipeng Yu Da Zhang Ning Zhang Shaohui Zhang Shaojun Zhang Xian Zhang Xin Zhang Zengkai Zhang Bo Zheng Yixuan Zheng Jian Zhou Tong Zhu Jinnan Wang Kebin He Center of Air Quality Simulation and System Analysis Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningBeijing100041China Center for Carbon Neutrality Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningBeijing100041China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Institute for Carbon Neutrality Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China State Key Joint Laboratory for Environment Simulation and Pollution Control College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering and Center for Environment and HealthPeking UniversityBeijing100871China National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International CooperationBeijing100035China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China School of Public Health Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of HealthFudan UniversityShanghai200032China School of Economics and Management Beijing University of Chemical TechnologyBeijing100029China Department of Earth System Science University of CaliforniaIrvineCA92697USA National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing100871China Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of ChinaBeijing100029China Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring

China is now confronting the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate *** the high synergies between air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation,the Chinese government is actively promoting synergetic control of these two *** Synergetic Roadmap project was launched in 2021 to track and analyze the progress of synergetic control in China by developing and monitoring key *** Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report is the first annual update,featuring 20 indicators across five aspects:synergetic governance system and practices,progress in structural transition,air pollution and associated weather-climate interactions,sources,sinks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,and health impacts and benefits of coordinated *** to the comprehensive review presented in the 2021 report,the Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report places particular emphasis on progress in 2021 with highlights on actions in key sectors and the relevant *** milestones include the proportion of non-fossil power generation capacity surpassing coal-fired capacity for the first time,a decline in the production of crude steel and cement after years of growth,and the surging penetration of electric ***,in 2022,China issued the first national policy that synergizes abatements of pollution and carbon emissions,marking a new era for China's pollution-carbon *** changes highlight China's efforts to reshape its energy,economic,and transportation structures to meet the demand for synergetic control and sustainable ***,the country has witnessed a slowdown in carbon emission growth,improved air quality,and increased health benefits in recent years.

关键词： Synergetic roadmap Carbon neutrality Clean air

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Spatiotemporal variation of mortality burden attributable to heatwaves in China,1979–2020

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science Bulletin 2022年第13期67卷 1340-1344,M0004页

作者： Huiqi Chen Liang Zhao Wei Dong Liangliang Cheng Wenjia Cai Jun Yang Junzhe Bao Xin-Zhong Liang Shakoor Hajat Peng Gong Wannian Liang Cunrui Huang School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030China The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education&Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute for Environmental and Climate Research Jinan UniversityGuangzhou 510632China School of Public Health Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center&Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20742USA Department of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HTUK Department of Earth Sciences the University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Healthy China Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

热浪通过增加死亡和发病风险导致巨大的公共卫生负担.而在气候变暖与社会经济发展相交织的风险下,中国人群所面临的热浪导致的健康负担的时间演变规律、空间分布特征及其驱动因素仍然存在大量空白.本研究应用基于事件的归因损失评估方... 详细信息

热浪通过增加死亡和发病风险导致巨大的公共卫生负担.而在气候变暖与社会经济发展相交织的风险下,中国人群所面临的热浪导致的健康负担的时间演变规律、空间分布特征及其驱动因素仍然存在大量空白.本研究应用基于事件的归因损失评估方法定量评估了过去40年格点水平的每日热浪归因死亡人数.研究发现,热浪相关死亡人数具有快速增长、非线性和极端性的特征,40年间增加了4倍,2010年代年均归因死亡人数达15500人.归因死亡负担还呈现强烈的区域异质性,华东和华中地区负担更重.随着时间的推移,中国可归因死亡人数上升的主要影响因素是增加的热浪发生频率,其次是人口增长和老龄化.这项工作为民众提供了更为直观的高温健康危害信息,同时为制定有针对性的气候变化适应措施提供重要信息.

关键词：社会经济发展气候变化适应区域异质性死亡人数损失评估公共卫生极端性发病风险

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Future climate change decreases multi-pathway but increases respiratory human health risks of PAHs across China

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National science Open 2024年第2期3卷 128-147页

作者： Jiaao Bao Xinghui Xia Ying Zhu Bingxiang Zhao Erxue Gu Yanan Liu Xiao Yun Zhenrui Zhang Nannan Xi Yong Geng Ying Xu Zhifeng Yang Derek C.G.Muir Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education State Key Laboratory of Water Environment SimulationSchool of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Emerging Contaminants School of Environmental Science and EngineeringShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Laboratory for Earth Surface ProcessesSino-French Institute for Earth System SciencePeking UniversityBeijing 100871China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education Institute of Environmental and Ecological EngineeringGuangdong University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510006China Aquatic Contaminants Research Division Environment and Climate Change CanadaBurlington L7S 1A1Canada

Future climate change will affect the environmental fate of hydrophobic organic contaminants(HOCs)and associated human health risks,yet the extent of these effects remains ***,we couple a high-resolution environmental multimedia model with a bioaccumulation model to study the multimedia distribution of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs),a group of HOCs,and assess future PAH-related human health risks under varying climate change scenarios over China at a continental *** removing the effects of PAH emission changes,we find that the total PAH concentrations would decrease in the air,freshwater,sediment,soil,and organisms,while the high-molecular-weight PAH would increase in the air with climate warming from 1.5°C to 4°***,the multi-pathway exposure human health risks predominately influenced by dietary ingestion are expected to decrease by 1.7%–20.5%,while the respiratory risks are projected to rise by 0.2%–5.8%in the ***,the persistently high multi-pathway human health risks underscore the need for reducing future PAH emissions by 69%compared with 2009 levels in *** study demonstrates the urgency of limiting PAH emissions under future climate change for public health and highlights the importance of including the contribution of dietary ingestion in human health risk assessment.

关键词： polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons future climate change human health risks emission reduction

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A new era of China-Germany joint research exploring the climate mystery of earth

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science Bulletin 2019年第23期64卷 1733-1736页

作者： Tianjun Zhou Jung Luterbacher Shaohong Wu Chao Li Qingchen Chao Xiao Cheng Yihong Duan Jian Li Bjorn Stevens Sebastian Voigt Yuanhang Zhang Xunhua Zheng Liwei Zou State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Department of Geography ClimatologyClimate Dynamics and Climate ChangeJustus-Liebig University of GiessenGiessen 35390Germany Centre for International Development and Environmental Research University of GiessenGiessen 35390Germany Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146Germany Beijing Climate Center China Meteorology AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Centre for European Economic Research Mannheim 68161Germany College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry(LAPC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

China and Germany have a long history of collaborating in the earth sciences. One example is the collaborative work in plumbing the mysteries of climate in China. German geographer Prof. Dr. Ferdinand von Richthofen led the first scientific expedition of the Loess Plateau and Lop Nur during the 1870s. The expedition established the theory of the eolian origin of the plateau. The term"Silk Road"("die Seidenstrasse" in German) was also coined by Prof.

关键词： China. earth climate

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海洋中继器促进了青藏高原热源的全球气候效应

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science Bulletin 2023年第19期68卷 2225-2235,M0004页

作者：谢永坤黄建平吴国雄刘屹岷 Wenhao Dong 鲁萌萌何编苏子繁包庆赵庆云刘玉芝 Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ 08542USA Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder CO 80301USA State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519000China College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

以往研究多关注青藏高原对亚洲季风的影响,然而青藏高原对全球气候的影响范围及强度尚不明确.本研究揭示青藏高原热源对全球气候具有广泛的影响,且多模式的结果高度一致.例如,1℃的青藏高原增暖可以引起0.73℃的北美洲增暖.然而,没有海... 详细信息

以往研究多关注青藏高原对亚洲季风的影响,然而青藏高原对全球气候的影响范围及强度尚不明确.本研究揭示青藏高原热源对全球气候具有广泛的影响,且多模式的结果高度一致.例如,1℃的青藏高原增暖可以引起0.73℃的北美洲增暖.然而,没有海-气相互作用时,青藏高原热源的远程影响随距离快速衰减.海-气相互作用可以显著放大青藏高原热源的远程影响,其方式与无线信号中继器类似.因此,太平洋和大西洋作为高效的海洋中继器,增强了青藏高原热源对全球气候的影响.海洋中继器对青藏高原气候效应的促进作用是通过增强全球尺度的热量和水汽输送及其对应的西风带环流、定常波波列、垂直-纬向翻转环流的大气环流途径,以及太平洋和大西洋区域的局地海-气正反馈过程.

关键词：中继器正反馈全球气候青藏高原气候定常波促进作用气候效应环流

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An overview for monitoring and prediction of pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere

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Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 430-441页

作者： Jianping Huang Danfeng Wang Yongguan Zhu Zifeng Yang Maosheng Yao Xiaoming Shi Taicheng An Qiang Zhang Cunrui Huang Xinhui Bi Jiang Li Zifa Wang Yongqin Liu Guibing Zhu Siyu Chen Jian Hang Xinghua Qiu Weiwei Deng Huaiyu Tian Tengfei Zhang Tianmu Chen Sijin Liu Xinbo Lian Bin Chen Beidou Zhang Yingjie Zhao Rui Wang Han Li Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory HealthFirst Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityState Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease(Guangzhou Medical University)Guangzhou 510230China College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health National Institute of Environmental HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100021China Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for Contaminants Exposure and Health School of Environmental Science and EngineeringInstitute of Environmental Health and Pollution ControlGuangdong University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510006China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry and Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Resources Utilization Guangzhou Institute of GeochemistryChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510640China National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100021China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Pan-third Pole Environment Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 510640

Corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)has exerted a profound adverse impact on human *** have demonstrated that aerosol transmission is one of the major transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).Pathogenic microorganisms such as SARS-CoV-2 can survive in the air and cause widespread infection among *** monitoring of pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere and accurate epidemic prediction are the frontier guarantee for preventing large-scale epidemic *** of pathogenic microorganisms in the air,especially in densely populated areas,may raise the possibility to detect viruses before people are widely infected and contain the epidemic at an earlier *** multi-scale coupled accurate epidemic prediction system can provide support for governments to analyze the epidemic situation,allocate health resources,and formulate epidemic response *** review first elaborates on the effects of the atmospheric environment on pathogenic microorganism transmission,which lays a theoretical foundation for the monitoring and prediction of epidemic ***,the monitoring technique development and the necessity of monitoring pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere are summarized and ***,this review introduces the major epidemic prediction methods and highlights the significance to realize a multi-scale coupled epidemic prediction system by strengthening the multidisciplinary cooperation of epidemiology,atmospheric sciences,environmental sciences,sociology,demography,*** summarizing the achievements and challenges in monitoring and prediction of pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere,this review proposes suggestions for epidemic response,namely,the establishment of an integrated monitoring and prediction platform for pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere.

关键词： Aerosol transmission Epidemic monitoring methods Epidemic prediction modelsEpidemic response Multidisciplinary cooperation

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气候变化情景下中国因高温造成的劳动生产力损失预估

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science Bulletin 2023年第22期68卷 2827-2837,M0006页

作者：程亮亮谷魁英赵亮王会滨纪思翰刘钊黄建斌陈艺丹高学杰徐影王灿罗勇蔡闻佳宫鹏梁万年黄存瑞 School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Linkong Economics and Management Beijing Institute of Economics and ManagementBeijing 100102China Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100084China Climate Change Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Department of Earth System Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Department of Earth Sciences and Department of Geography University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Institute of Healthy Chin1 Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

气候变化背景下,高温会影响职业人群的工作效率并造成劳动生产力损失.本研究基于区域气候模式并采用本土化的暴露-反应函数,预估了未来气候变化情景下中国因高温造成的劳动时间损失.研究发现,与基线期的213亿小时高温相关劳动时间损失相... 详细信息

气候变化背景下,高温会影响职业人群的工作效率并造成劳动生产力损失.本研究基于区域气候模式并采用本土化的暴露-反应函数,预估了未来气候变化情景下中国因高温造成的劳动时间损失.研究发现,与基线期的213亿小时高温相关劳动时间损失相比,到21世纪末在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,损失将分别增加-17.8%、10.8%及121.1%.损失主要集中在华南、华中和华东地区,其中广东与河南将占到全国总损失的四分之一.因为这些区域的温度将更高、人口更密集、户外工作者在总人群中的比例较大.与RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景相比,若能实现1.5℃温控目标,将分别能够避免11.8%、33.7%和53.9%的劳动时间损失,相当于避免了全中国21世纪中叶的0.1%、0.6%及1.4%的年均GDP损失.本研究显示未来气候变化会给中国造成严重的热相关劳动生产力损失,并强调亟需采取因地制宜的气候减缓及适应策略以保护职业人群健康.本研究对其他与中国相似的发展中国家同样具有重要意义.

关键词： Climate change Heat stress Labor Work hours lost Occupational health

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Influence and mechanism of solar radiation intensity on the interdecadal variability of strong Meiyu events during historical periods

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science China earth sciences 2023年第2期66卷 408-416页

作者： Liulin WANG Liang NING Kefan CHEN Mi YAN Jian LIU Zhengyu LIU Yanmin QIN Jiao XUE Chuxin LI Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of Education/State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application/School of GeographyNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing210023China Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao266237China Climate System Research Center Department of GeosciencesUniversity of MassachusettsAmherst01003USA State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an710061China Department of Geography The Ohio State UniversityColumbusOH43210USA

Most recent studies on Meiyu over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR)have focused on its interannual variability or the mechanism of certain abnormal *** influence and physical mechanism of solar radiation intensity on the interdecadal frequency of strong Meiyu events over the MLRYR during historical periods were investigated using reconstructed precipitation data,reconstructed solar radiation data,and model simulation ***,according to the solar radiation intensity,the Ming and Qing Dynasties(1470-1850)were divided into three periods of strong solar radiation and three periods of weak solar *** was found that during the periods of strong solar radiation,the frequency of strong Meiyu events was significantly higher than that during the periods of weak solar radiation in the reconstructed precipitation data and model *** analyses show that during the periods of strong solar radiation,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)is stronger,and the blocking highs over the middle-high-latitudes are also stronger,which is conducive to the continuous convergence of the southward cold air and the northward warm and humid air flow at the ***,a circulation spatial pattern conducive to the occurrence of strong Meiyu events is then *** probability distributions of precipitation also show that,during periods of strong solar radiation,changes in circulation patterns cause the probability distribution of precipitation to shift significantly to the right,increasing the probability of strong Meiyu events occurring on the right side of the probability distribution.

关键词： Ming Dynasty Historical flood Strong Meiyu events Solar radiation CESM-LME

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