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Physics of Fluids 2022年第2期34卷

作者： Qianwen Zhang (张倩文) Chuqi Su (苏楚奇) Makoto Tsubokura (坪倉誠) Zhen Hu (胡振) Yiping Wang (汪怡平) 1Hubei Key Laboratory of Advanced Technology for Automotive Components Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan 430070 China 2Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Automotive Components Technology Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan 430070 China 3Hubei Research Center for New Energy and Intelligent Connected Vehicle Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan 430070 China 4Graduate School of System Informatics Kobe University Kobe Hyogo 657-8501 Japan 5Complex Phenomena Unified Simulation Research Team RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science Kobe Hyogo 650-0047 Japan 6Shanghai Huawei Technology Co. Shanghai 201206 China

This article was originally published online on 7 January 2022 with an incorrect page number. The correct page number is 017106. All online versions of this art

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Scaling K2. VI. Reduced Small Planet Occurrence in High Galactic Amplitude Stars

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Zink, Jon K. Hardegree-Ullman, Kevin K. Christiansen, Jessie L. Petigura, Erik A. Boley, Kiersten M. Bhure, Sakhee Rice, Malena Yee, Samuel W. Isaacson, Howard Fernandes, Rachel B. Howard, Andrew W. Blunt, Sarah Lubin, Jack Chontos, Ashley Pidhorodetska, Daria MacDougall, Mason G. Department of Astronomy California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA91125 United States Steward Observatory The University of Arizona TucsonAZ85721 United States Caltech/IPAC-NASA Exoplanet Science Institute PasadenaCA91125 United States Department of Physics and Astronomy University of California Los AngelesCA90095 United States Department of Astronomy The Ohio State University ColumbusOH43210 United States Department of Physics Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research MIT CambridgeMA02139 United States Department of Astronomy Yale University New HavenCT06511 United States Department of Astrophysical Sciences Princeton University 4 Ivy Lane PrincetonNJ08544 United States 501 Campbell Hall University of California at Berkeley BerkeleyCA94720 United States Centre for Astrophysics University of Southern Queensland ToowoombaQLD Australia Lunar and Planetary Laboratory The University of Arizona TucsonAZ85721 United States Alien Earths Team NASA Nexus for Exoplanet System Science United States Department of Astronomy California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA91125 United States Department of Physics & Astronomy University of California Irvine IrvineCA92697 United States Department of Astrophysical Sciences Princeton University 4 Ivy Lane PrincetonNJ08540 United States Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of California RiversideCA United States

In this study, we performed a homogeneous analysis of the planets around FGK dwarf stars observed by the Kepler and K2 missions, providing spectroscopic parameters for 310 K2 targets —including 239 Scaling K2 hosts— observed with Keck/HIRES. For orbital periods less than 40 days, we found that the distribution of planets as a function of orbital period, stellar effective temperature, and metallicity was consistent between K2 and Kepler , reflecting consistent planet formation efficiency across numerous ∼ 1 kpc sight-lines in the local Milky Way. Additionally, we detected a 3× excess of sub-Saturns relative to warm Jupiters beyond 10 days, suggesting a closer association between sub-Saturn and sub-Neptune formation than between sub-Saturn and Jovian formation. Performing a joint analysis of Kepler and K2 demographics, we observed diminishing super-Earth, sub-Neptune, and sub-Saturn populations at higher stellar effective temperatures, implying an inverse relationship between formation and disk mass. In contrast, no apparent host-star spectral-type dependence was identified for our population of Jupiters, which indicates gas-giant formation saturates within the FGK mass regimes. We present support for stellar metallicity trends reported by previous Kepler analyses. Using Gaia DR3 proper motion and RV measurements, we discovered a galactic location trend: stars that make large vertical excursions from the plane of the Milky Way host fewer super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. While oscillation amplitude is associated with metallicity, metallicity alone cannot explain the observed trend, demonstrating that galactic influences are imprinted on the planet population. Overall, our results provide new insights into the distribution of planets around FGK dwarf stars and the factors that influence their formation and evolution. © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Spectroscopic analysis

An evaluation method for network communication syst em efficiency based on multi-source information fusion

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An evaluation method for network communication syst em effic...

第37届中国控制会议

作者： Cao Yuan Wang Yue-ping Tang Xue-mei Zhao Xiao-fang Science and Technology on Complex Land Systems Simulation Laboratory Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering

The number of experimental data obtained under different conditions is large, and there are some differences in the distribution characteristics of samples. If a large number of different types of data are mixed and the network communication Effectiveness evaluation is carried out, the characteristics of some samples may be drowned out, on the other hand, the information of many experimental samples is not fully utilized. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a method of network communication effectiveness evaluation based on multi-source information fusion. This method firstly analyzes the communication success rate of the cell communication node by longitudinal fusion of experimental information. Based on this, the confidence degree is used to construct the weighting coefficient, and the whole communication success rate of the network information system is evaluated by the experiment information of multiple nodes. Thus, the comprehensive evaluation of the communication efficiency of the unit node and the network Information system is realized.

关键词： multi-source information network communication effectiveness evaluation communication success rate

New Stability Criteria for High-Order Neural Networks with Proportional Delays

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Communications in Theoretical Physics 2017年第3期67卷 235-240页

作者：徐昌进李培峦 Guizhou Key Laboratory of Economics System Simulation Guizhou University of Finance and Economics School of Mathematics and Statistics Henan University of Science and Technology

This paper is concerned with high-order neural networks with proportional delays. The proportional delay is a time-varying unbounded delay which is different from the constant delay, bounded time-varying delay and distributed delay. By the nonlinear transformation yi(t) = ui( et)(i = 1, 2,..., n), we transform a class of high-order neural networks with proportional delays into a class of high-order neural networks with constant delays and timevarying coefficients. With the aid of Brouwer fixed point theorem and constructing the delay differential inequality, we obtain some delay-independent and delay-dependent sufficient conditions to ensure the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of equilibrium of the network. Two examples with their simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical findings. Our results are new and complement previously known results.

关键词： high-order neural networks exponential stability proportional delays delay differential inequality Brouwer fixed point theorem

The Isotopic Links from Planet Forming Regions to the Solar system

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Nomura, Hideko Furuya, K. Cordiner, M.A. Charnley, S.B. Alexander, C.M.O.D. Nixon, C.A. Guzman, V.V. Yurimoto, H. Tsukagoshi, T. Iino, T. Division of Science National Astronomical Observatory of Japan 2-21-1 Osawa Tokyo Mitaka181-8588 Japan The Graduate University for Advanced Studies SOKENDAI 2-21-1 Osawa Tokyo Mitaka181-8588 Japan Solar System Exploration Division NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GreenbeltMD United States Department of Physics Catholic University of America WashingtonDC United States Earth and Planets Laboratory Carnegie Institution of Washington 5241 Broad Branch Road NW WashingtonDC20015 United States Instituto de Astrofísica Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860 Macul Santiago7820436 Chile Department of Natural History Sciences Hokkaido University Hokkaido Sapporo060-0810 Japan Information Technology Center The University of Tokyo 2-11-16 Yayoi Bunkyo Tokyo113-8658 Japan

Isotopic ratios provide a powerful tool for understanding the origins of materials, including the volatile and refractory matter within solar system bodies. Recent high sensitivity observations of molecular isotopologues, in particular with ALMA, have brought us new information on isotopic ratios of hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in star and planet forming regions as well as the solar system objects. Solar system exploration missions, such as Rosetta and Cassini, have given us further new insights. Meanwhile, the recent development of sophisticated models for isotope chemistry including detailed gas-phase and grain surface reaction network has made it possible to discuss how isotope fractionation in star and planet forming regions is imprinted into the icy mantles of dust grains, preserving a record of the initial isotopic state of solar system materials. This chapter reviews recent progress in observations of molecular isotopologues in extra-solar planet forming regions, prestellar/protostellar cores and protoplanetary disks, as well as objects in our solar system - comets, meteorites, and planetary/satellite atmospheres - and discusses their connection by means of isotope chemical models. © 2022, CC BY.

关键词： Isotopes

TransMut: a program to predict HLA-I peptide binding and optimize mutated peptides for vaccine design by the Transformer-derived self-attention model

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Research Square

Research Square 2021年

作者： Chu, Yanyi Zhang, Yan Wang, Qiankun Zhang, Lingfeng Wang, Xuhong Wang, Yanjing Wang, Jianmin Jiang, Xue Salahub, Dennis Russell Xiong, Yi Wei, Dong-Qing State Key Laboratory of Microbial Metabolism Shanghai-Islamabad-Belgrade Joint Innovation Center on Antibacterial Resistances Joint International Research Laboratory of Metabolic & Developmental Sciences School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai200030 China Department of Chemistry CMS - Centre for Molecular Simulation IQST - Institute for Quantum Science and Technology University of Calgary 2500 University Drive NW CalgaryABT2N 1N4 Canada Department of Clinical Oncology The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital Shenzhen China School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of Ottawa 75 Laurier Ave. OttawaONK1N 6N5 Canada The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of System control and information processing Department of Automation School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai200030 China Integrative Biotechnology & Translational Medicine Yonsei University Incheon21983 Korea Republic of Peng Cheng Laboratory Vanke Cloud City Phase I Building 8 Xili Street Nanshan District Guangdong Shenzhen518055 China

Computational prediction of the interaction between human leukocyte antigen (HLA) and peptide (pHLA) can speed up epitope screening and vaccine design. Here, we develop the TransMut framework composed of TransPHLA for pHLA binding prediction and AOMP for mutated peptide optimization, which can be generalized to any binding and mutation task of biomolecules. Firstly, TransPHLA is developed by using a Transformer-derived self-attention model to predict pHLA binding, which is significantly superior to 11 previous methods on pHLA binding prediction, neoantigen and human papilloma virus vaccine identification. For vaccine design, the AOMP program is then developed to automatically optimize mutated peptides to search for mutant peptides with higher affinity to the target HLA and with high homology to the source peptide. Among 3660 non-binding pHLAs, 3630 were successfully mutated. Of these, 94% were verified by the IEDB recommended method, and 88% have homology higher than 80% to the source peptide. © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Peptides

Habitability models for astrobiology

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arXiv 2021年

作者： Méndez, Abel Rivera-Valentín, Edgard G. Schulze-Makuch, Dirk Filiberto, Justin Ramírez, Ramses M. Wood, Tana E. Dávila, Alfonso McKay, Chris Ceballos, Kevin N. Ortiz Jusino-Maldonado, Marcos Torres-Santiago, Nicole J. Nery, Guillermo Heller, René Byrne, Paul K. Nathan, Erica Simões, Marta Filipa Antunes, André Martínez-Frías, Jesús Carone, Ludmila Izenberg, Noam R. Atri, Dimitra Nowajewski-Barra, Priscilla Rivera-Hernández, Frances Chitty, Humberto Itic Carvajal Brown, Corine Lynch, Kennda Catling, David Zuluaga, Jorge I. Salazar, Juan F. Chen, Howard Jagadeesh, Madhu Kashyap Haqq-Misra, Jacob Malaska, Michael J. González, Grizelle Planetary Habitability Laboratory University of Puerto Rico at Arecibo Puerto Rico Lunar and Planetary Institute USRA HoustonTX United States Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics Technische Universität Berlin Berlin Germany German Research Centre for Geosciences Section Geomicrobiology Potsdam Germany Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries Stechlin Germany University of Central Florida Department of Physics OrlandoFL United States USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry San Juan Puerto Rico NASA Ames Research Center Moffett FieldCA United States Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research Institute for Astrophysics University of Göttingen Germany North Carolina State University RaleighNC United States Department of Earth Environmental and Planetary Sciences Brown University ProvidenceRI United States State Key Laboratory of Lunar and Planetary Sciences Macau University of Science and Technology Taipa China Madrid Spain Max Planck Institute for Astronomy Heidelberg Germany Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory LaurelMD United States Center for Space Science New York University Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates Fundación Ciencias Planetarias Santiago Chile Georgia Institute of Technology AtlantaGA United States Universidad Simón Bolívar Caracas Venezuela Macquarie University SydneyNSW Australia University of Washington SeattleWA United States Institute of Physics FCEN Universidad de Antioquia Medellín Colombia GIGA Escuela Ambiental Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia Medellín Colombia Northwestern University EvanstonIL United States Jyoti Nivas College Bengaluru India Blue Marble Space Institute of Science SeattleWA United States Space Science Institute BoulderCO United States Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA United States

Habitability has been generally defined as the capability of an environment to support life. Ecologists have been using Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) for more than four decades to study the habitability of Earth from local to global scales. Astrobiologists have been proposing different habitability models for some time, with little integration and consistency among them, being different in function to those used by ecologists. Habitability models are not only used to determine if environments are habitable or not, but they also are used to characterize what key factors are responsible for the gradual transition from low to high habitability states. Here we review and compare some of the different models used by ecologists and astrobiologists and suggest how they could be integrated into new habitability standards. Such standards will help to improve the comparison and characterization of potentially habitable environments, prioritize target selections, and study correlations between habitability and biosignatures. Habitability models are the foundation of planetary habitability science and the synergy between ecologists and astrobiologists is necessary to expand our understanding of the habitability of Earth, the Solar system, and extrasolar planets. © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Extrasolar planets

A roadmap for the atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with JWST

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arXiv 2023年

作者： de Wit, Julien Doyon, René Rackham, Benjamin V. Lim, Olivia Ducrot, Elsa Kreidberg, Laura Benneke, Björn Ribas, Ignasi Berardo, David Niraula, Prajwal Iyer, Aishwarya Shapiro, Alexander Kostogryz, Nadiia Witzke, Veronika Gillon, Michaël Agol, Eric Meadows, Victoria Burgasser, Adam J. Owen, James E. Fortney, Jonathan J. Selsis, Franck Bello-Arufe, Aaron de Beurs, Zoë Bolmont, Emeline Cowan, Nicolas Dong, Chuanfei Drake, Jeremy J. Garcia, Lionel Greene, Thomas Haworth, Thomas Hu, Renyu Kane, Stephen R. Kervella, Pierre Koll, Daniel Krissansen-Totton, Joshua Lagage, Pierre-Olivier Lichtenberg, Tim Lustig-Yaeger, Jacob Lingam, Manasvi Turbet, Martin Seager, Sara Barkaoui, Khalid Bell, Taylor J. Burdanov, Artem Cadieux, Charles Charnay, Benjamin Cloutier, Ryan Cook, Neil J. Correia, Alexandre C.M. Dang, Lisa Daylan, Tansu Delrez, Laetitia Edwards, Billy Fauchez, Thomas J. Flagg, Laura Fraschetti, Federico Haqq-Misra, Jacob Huang, Ziyu Iro, Nicolas Jayawardhana, Ray Jehin, Emmanuel Jin, Meng Kite, Edwin Kitzmann, Daniel Kral, Quentin Lafrenière, David Libert, Anne-Sophie Liu, Beibei Mohanty, Subhanjoy Morris, Brett M. Murray, Catriona A. Piaulet, Caroline Pozuelos, Francisco J. Radica, Michael Ranjan, Sukrit Rathcke, Alexander Roy, Pierre-Alexis Schwieterman, Edward W. Turner, Jake D. Triaud, Amaury Way, Michael J. Department of Earth Atmospheric and Planetary Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue CambridgeMA02139 United States Department of Physics Université de Montréal MontrealQC Canada Trottier Institute for Research on Exoplanets Université de Montréal MontrealQC Canada Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research Massachusetts Institute of Technology CambridgeMA02139 United States Paris Region Fellow Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action France AIM CEA CNRS Université Paris-Saclay Université de Paris Gif-sur-YvetteF-91191 France Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie Königstuhl 17 HeidelbergD-69117 Germany Campus UAB c/ Can Magrans s/n Bellaterra Barcelona08193 Spain c/ Gran Capità 2–4 Barcelona08034 Spain School of Earth and Space Exploration Arizona State University 525 E. University Dr. TempeAZ85281 United States Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research Göttingen Germany Astrobiology Research Unit Université de Liège 19C Allée du 6 Août Liège4000 Belgium Department of Astronomy and Astrobiology Program University of Washington Box 351580 SeattleWA98195 United States NASA Nexus for Exoplanet System Science Virtual Planetary Laboratory Team University of Washington Box 351580 SeattleWA98195 United States Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences UC San Diego UCSD Mail Code 0424 9500 Gilman Drive La Jolla CA92093-0424 United States Astrophysics Group Imperial College London Blackett Laboratory Prince Consort Road LondonSW7 2AZ United Kingdom Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics University of California Santa Cruz Santa CruzCA95064 United States Laboratoire d’astrophysique de Bordeaux Univ. Bordeaux CNRS B18N allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire Pessac33615 France Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA United States Observatoire astronomique de l’université de Genève Chemin Pegasi 51 VersoixCH-1290 Switzerland Centre Vie dans l’Univers Faculté des scien

Ultra-cool dwarf stars are abundant, long-lived, and uniquely suited to enable the atmospheric study of transiting terrestrial companions with JWST. Amongst them, the most prominent is the M8.5V star TRAPPIST-1 and its seven planets. While JWST Cycle 1 observations have started to yield preliminary insights into the planets, they have also revealed that their atmospheric exploration requires a better understanding of their host star. Here, we propose a roadmap to characterize the TRAPPIST-1 system—and others like it—in an efficient and robust manner with JWST. We notably recommend that—although more challenging to schedule—multi-transit windows be prioritized to mitigate the effects of stellar activity and gather up to twice more transits per JWST hour spent. We conclude that, for such systems, planets cannot be studied in isolation by small programs, but rather need large-scale, jointly space- and ground-based initiatives to fully exploit the capabilities of JWST for the exploration of terrestrial planets. © 2023, CC BY.

关键词： Stars

Early Release science of the Exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRSpec G395H

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Alderson, Lili Wakeford, Hannah R. Alam, Munazza K. Batalha, Natasha E. Lothringer, Joshua D. Redai, Jea Adams Barat, Saugata Brande, Jonathan Damiano, Mario Daylan, Tansu Espinoza, Néstor Flagg, Laura Goyal, Jayesh M. Grant, David Hu, Renyu Inglis, Julie Lee, Elspeth K.H. Mikal-Evans, Thomas Ramos-Rosado, Lakeisha Roy, Pierre-Alexis Wallack, Nicole L. Batalha, Natalie M. Bean, Jacob L. Benneke, Björn Berta-Thompson, Zachory K. Carter, Aarynn L. Changeat, Quentin Colón, Knicole D. Crossfield, Ian J.M. Désert, Jean-Michel Foreman-Mackey, Daniel Gibson, Neale P. Kreidberg, Laura Line, Michael R. López-Morales, Mercedes Molaverdikhani, Karan Moran, Sarah E. Morello, Giuseppe Moses, Julianne I. Mukherjee, Sagnick Schlawin, Everett Sing, David K. Stevenson, Kevin B. Taylor, Jake Aggarwal, Keshav Ahrer, Eva-Maria Allen, Natalie H. Barstow, Joanna K. Bell, Taylor J. Blecic, Jasmina Casewell, Sarah L. Chubb, Katy L. Crouzet, Nicolas Cubillos, Patricio E. Decin, Leen Feinstein, Adina D. Fortney, Joanthan J. Harrington, Joseph Heng, Kevin Iro, Nicolas Kempton, Eliza M.-R. Kirk, James Knutson, Heather A. Krick, Jessica Leconte, Jérémy Lendl, Monika MacDonald, Ryan J. Mancini, Luigi Mansfield, Megan May, Erin M. Mayne, Nathan J. Miguel, Yamila Nikolov, Nikolay K. Ohno, Kazumasa Palle, Enric Parmentier, Vivien de la Roche, Dominique Petit dit J.M. Piaulet, Caroline Powell, Diana Rackham, Benjamin V. Redfield, Seth Rogers, Laura K. Rustamkulov, Zafar Tan, Xianyu Tremblin, P. Tsai, Shang-Min Turner, Jake D. de Val-Borro, Miguel Venot, Olivia Welbanks, Luis Wheatley, Peter J. Zhang, Xi School of Physics HH Wills Physics Laboratory University of Bristol Bristol United Kingdom Earth and Planets Laboratory Carnegie Institution for Science WashingtonDC United States NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field CA United States Department of Physics Utah Valley University OremUT United States Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian CambridgeMA United States Anton Pannekoek Institute for Astronomy University of Amsterdam Amsterdam Netherlands Department of Physics & Astronomy University of Kansas LawrenceKS United States Astrophysics Section Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA United States Department of Astrophysical Sciences Princeton University PrincetonNJ United States Space Telescope Science Institute BaltimoreMD United States Department of Physics & Astronomy Johns Hopkins University BaltimoreMD United States Department of Astronomy Carl Sagan Institute Cornell University IthacaNY United States HBNI Odisha India Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences California Institute of Technology PasadenaCA United States Center for Space and Habitability University of Bern Bern Switzerland Max Planck Institute for Astronomy Heidelberg Germany Department of Physics Institute for Research on Exoplanets Université de Montréal MontrealQC Canada Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics University of California Santa Cruz Santa CruzCA United States Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics University of Chicago ChicagoIL United States Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences University of Colorado BoulderCO United States European Space Agency Space Telescope Science Institute BaltimoreMD United States Department of Physics and Astronomy University College London United Kingdom NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GreenbeltMD United States Center for Computational Astrophysics Flatiron Institute New YorkNY United States School of Physics Trinity College Dublin Dublin Ireland

Measuring the abundances of carbon and oxygen in exoplanet atmospheres is considered a crucial avenue for unlocking the formation and evolution of exoplanetary systems1,2. Access to an exoplanet’s chemical inventory requires high precision observations, often inferred from individual molecular detections with low-resolution space-based3-5 and high-resolution ground-based6-8 facilities. Here we report the medium-resolution (R≈600) transmission spectrum of an exoplanet atmosphere between 3–5 μm covering multiple absorption features for the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b9 obtained with JWST NIRSpec G395H. Our observations achieve 1.46× photon precision, providing an average transit depth uncertainty of 221 ppm per spectroscopic bin, and present minimal impacts from systematic effects. We detect significant absorption from CO2 (28.5σ) and H2O (21.5σ), and identify SO2 as the source of absorption at 4.1 μm (4.8σ). Best-fit atmospheric models range between 3× and 10× solar metallicity, with sub-solar to solar C/O ratios. These results, including the detection of SO2, underscore the importance of characterising the chemistry in exoplanet atmospheres, and showcase NIRSpec G395H as an excellent mode for time series observations over this critical wavelength range. © 2022, CC BY.

关键词： Absorption spectroscopy

Evaluating CMIP6 Model Accuracy in Predicting and Clustering Precipitation and Temperature Trends in the Omo-Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

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Atmosphere 2025年第1期63卷

作者： Fetene Muluken Chanie Mulugeta Genanu Kebede Yared Godine Demeke Zelalem K. Bedaso Assefa Derbew Tegen Eyale Bayable 1 Department of Meteorological Data and Climatology Ethiopian Meteorology Institute Addis Ababa Ethiopia3 Meteorology and Hydrology Faculty Water Technology Institute Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia 2 Institute of Geophysics Space Science and Astronomy Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Unit Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia5 State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing People’s Republic of China 3 Meteorology and Hydrology Faculty Water Technology Institute Arba Minch University Arba Minch Ethiopia 4 Department of Geology and Environmental Geosciences University of Dayton 300 College Park Dayton OH45469-2364 USA 5 State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing People’s Republic of China6 Federal TVT Institute Faculty of Civil Technology Department of Water Works Construction Addis Ababa 190310 Ethiopia 7 Addis Ababa University College of Natural and Computational Sciences Center for Environmental Science Addis Ababa1176 Ethiopia

ABSTRACTThis study evaluated the performance of the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) in predicting and clustering climate variables in the Omo-Gibe River Basin (OGRB), Ethiopia—a region highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical data (1984–2014) were used to evaluate 12 CMIP6 models using statistical metrics (R², RMSE, MBE) and categorical metrics (POD, FAR, CSI), identifying the best-performing models for each cluster. The selected models underwent bias correction using distribution mapping to enhance projection accuracy under two socio-economic pathways: SSP2–4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions) for the near-term (2023–2053) and mid-term (2054–2084) periods. The study employed the K-means clustering method to classify spatial variations in precipitation and temperature, resulting in three clusters of precipitation and two clusters for temperature. Sen's slope estimator and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test were utilized to analyze trends in precipitation and temperature time series. Key findings include model performance: For precipitation, INM-CM5-0, FGOALS-g3, and IPSL-CM6A-LR demonstrated strong performance in Clusters 1 and 3, while MPI-ESM1-2-LR and NorESM2-MM excelled in Cluster 2. For temperature, INM-CM5-0, BCC-CSM2-MR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR exhibited the highest accuracy in Clusters 1 and 2. Significant precipitation increases were noted, particularly in Cluster 3, which shows a 74.7% rise by mid-century under SSP5–8.5. Temperature projections indicate maximum increases of 11.5% (absolute change: 3.1°C) in Cluster 1 and 8.4% (absolute change: 2.2°C) in Cluster 2, while minimum temperature rises reach as high as 23.5% (absolute change: 3.5°C). Spatial clustering revealed distinct climate patterns, with regions experiencing monomodal and bimodal rainfall cycles, providing a nuanced understanding of precipitation and temperature dynamics across the basin. These results reveal pronounced shifts in climate patterns, unde

关键词： Climate Change CMIP6 model climate projections Omo-Gibe River Basin