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Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics

Nature 2025年第8051期638卷 623-635页

作者： Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Tsui, Joseph L.-H. Chang, Serina Y. Lytras, Spyros Khurana, Mark P. Vanderslott, Samantha Bajaj, Sumali Scheidwasser, Neil Curran-Sebastian, Jacob Liam Semenova, Elizaveta Zhang, Mengyan Unwin, H. Juliette T. Watson, Oliver J. Mills, Cathal Dasgupta, Abhishek Ferretti, Luca Scarpino, Samuel V. Koua, Etien Morgan, Oliver Tegally, Houriiyah Paquet, Ulrich Moutsianas, Loukas Fraser, Christophe Ferguson, Neil M. Topol, Eric J. Duchêne, David A. Stadler, Tanja Kingori, Patricia Parker, Michael J. Dominici, Francesca Shadbolt, Nigel Suchard, Marc A. Ratmann, Oliver Flaxman, Seth Holmes, Edward C. Gomez-Rodriguez, Manuel Schölkopf, Bernhard Donnelly, Christl A. Pybus, Oliver G. Cauchemez, Simon Bhatt, Samir Pandemic Sciences Institute University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Biology University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of California Berkeley Berkeley CA United States UCSF UC Berkeley Joint Program in Computational Precision Health Berkeley CA United States Division of Systems Virology Department of Microbiology and Immunology The Institute of Medical Science The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan Section of Epidemiology Department of Public Health University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark Oxford Vaccine Group University of Oxford and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre Oxford United Kingdom Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Computer Science University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom School of Mathematics University of Bristol Bristol United Kingdom MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis School of Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Statistics University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Doctoral Training Centre University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Institute for Experiential AI Northeastern University MA Boston Thailand Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM United States World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa Brazzaville Congo WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence Health Emergencies Programme World Health Organization Berlin Germany Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI) School for Data Science and Computational Thinking Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) South Africa Muizenberg Cape Town South Africa Genomics England London United Kingdom Scripps Research La Jolla CA United States Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering ETH Zürich Basel Switzerland Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics Lausanne Switzerland The Ethox Centre Nuffield

Infectious disease threats to individual and public health are numerous, varied and frequently unexpected. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies, which are already supporting human decision making in economics, medicine and social science, have the potential to transform the scope and power of infectious disease epidemiology. Here we consider the application to infectious disease modelling of AI systems that combine machine learning, computational statistics, information retrieval and data science. We first outline how recent advances in AI can accelerate breakthroughs in answering key epidemiological questions and we discuss specific AI methods that can be applied to routinely collected infectious disease surveillance data. Second, we elaborate on the social context of AI for infectious disease epidemiology, including issues such as explainability, safety, accountability and ethics. Finally, we summarize some limitations of AI applications in this field and provide recommendations for how infectious disease epidemiology can harness most effectively current and future developments in AI. © Springer Nature Limited 2025.

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A Time Effect based Collaborative Filtering Approach for User Preference Statistics and Recommendation 2

A Time Effect based Collaborative Filtering Approach for Use...

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2019 2nd International Conference on computer Information science and Artificial Intelligence, CISAI 2019

作者： Chen, Yuxi Zhang, Xiaotong Zhao, Qing Akhtar, Faheem School of Statistics and Mathematics Country Central University of Finance and Economics Beijing100081 China Harpur College of Arts and Sciences Binghamton University-SUNY New York13902 United States Faculty of Information Technology Beijing University of Technology Beijing100124 China Department of Computer Science Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HV Netherlands School of Software Engineering Beijing University of Technology Beijing Engineering Research Center for IoT Software and Systems Beijing100124 China Department of Computer Science Sukkur IBA University Sukkur65200 Pakistan

With the rapid development of the information technologies in the financial field, extracting meaningful information from a massive amount of data is hugely significant for efficient business decision making. The recommendation system is an intelligent system that applies historical knowledge of users to infer their preferences and make a personalized recommendation. However, it suffers from the problem of time effect of user's behaviour, which means a user's interests may change over time. To overcome this problem, we propose a time effect based collaborative filtering approach to adaptively statistics the change of user preferences. Firstly, Item-based collaborative filtering is used to calculate rating similarity between items. Since an Item-based collaborative filtering algorithm doesn't consider the time effect;next, the time decay function is proposed to statistics the change of user interests. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme retained higher accuracy compare to traditional collaborative filtering method. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

关键词： Collaborative filtering

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Design, monitoring, and testing of microservices systems: The Practitioners’ perspective

arXiv

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arXiv 2021年

作者： Waseem, Muhammad Liang, Peng Shahin, Mojtaba Salle, Amleto Di Márquez, Gastón School of Computer Science Wuhan University Wuhan430072 China Department of Software Systems and Cybersecurity Faculty of Information Technology Monash University Melbourne3800 Australia Department of Information Engineering Computer Science and Mathematics University of L’Aquila L’AquilaI-67100 Italy Department of Electronics and Informatics Federico Santa María Technical University Concepción4030000 Chile

Context: Microservices Architecture (MSA) has received significant attention in the software industry. However, little empirical evidence exists on design, monitoring, and testing of microservices systems. Objective: This research aims to gain a deep understanding of how microservices systems are designed, monitored, and tested in the industry. Method: A mixed-methods study was conducted with 106 survey responses and 6 interviews from microservices practitioners. Results: The main findings are: (1) a combination of domain-driven design and business capability is the most used strategy to decompose an application into microservices, (2) over half of the participants used architecture evaluation and architecture implementation when designing microservices systems, (3) API gateway and Backend for frontend patterns are the most used MSA patterns, (4) resource usage and load balancing as monitoring metrics, log management and exception tracking as monitoring practices are widely used, (5) unit and end-to-end testing are the most used testing strategies, and (6) the complexity of microservices systems poses challenges for their design, monitoring, and testing, for which there are no dedicated solutions. Conclusions: Our findings reveal that more research is needed to (1) deal with microservices complexity at the design level, (2) handle security in microservices systems, and (3) address the monitoring and testing challenges through dedicated solutions. © 2021, CC BY.

关键词： Surveys

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Prediction of global spread of covid-19 pandemic: A review and research challenges

TechRxiv

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TechRxiv 2020年

作者： Shah, Saloni Mulahuwaish, Aos Ghafoor, Kayhan Zrar Maghdid, Halgurd S. Department of Computer Science and Information Systems Saginaw Valley State University MI United States Department of Software Engineering Salahaddin University Erbil Iraq School of Mathematics and Computer Science University of Wolverhampton Wolverhampton United Kingdom Department of Software Engineering Faculty of Engineering Koya University Kurdistan Iraq

Since the initial reports of the Coronavirus surfacing in Wuhan, China;the novel virus currently without a cure has spread like a wildfire across the globe. The virus spread exponentially across all inhabited continent;catching local governments by surprise in many cases and bringing the world economy to a standstill. As local authorities work on a response to deal with the virus, the scientific community has stepped in to help analyse and predict the pattern and conditions that would influence the spread of this unforgiving virus. Using existing statistical modelling tools to latest AI technology;the scientific community has used public and privately available data to help with predictions. A lot of this data research has enabled local authorities to plan their response – whether that is to deploy tightly available medical resources like ventilators or how and when to enforce policies to social distance including lockdowns. On one hand, this paper shows what accuracy of research brings to enable fighting this disease;while on the other hand it also shows what lack of response from local authorities can do in spreading this virus. This is our attempt in compiling different research methods and comparing their accuracy in predicting the spread of COVID-19. © 2020, CC BY.

关键词： Viruses

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CM-MLP: Cascade Multi-scale MLP with Axial Context Relation Encoder for Edge Segmentation of Medical Image

arXiv

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Lv, Jinkai Hu, Yuyong Fu, Quanshui Zhang, Zhiwang Hu, Yuqiang Lv, Lin Yang, Guoqing Li, Jinpeng Zhao, Yi Henan Institute of Advanced Technology Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou China The Research Center for Ubiquitous Computing Systems Institute of Computing Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Suining Central Hospital Suining China Hwa Mei Hospital University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Ningbo China School of Electrical and Information Engineering The University of Sydney Sydney Australia School of Mathematics and Computer Sciences NanChang University Nanchang China School of Information and Software Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu China

The convolutional-based methods provide good segmentation performance in the medical image segmentation task. However, those methods have the following challenges when dealing with the edges of the medical images: (1) Previous convolutional-based methods do not focus on the boundary relationship between foreground and background around the segmentation edge, which leads to the degradation of segmentation performance when the edge changes complexly. (2) The inductive bias of the convolutional layer cannot be adapted to complex edge changes and the aggregation of multiple-segmented areas, resulting in its performance improvement mostly limited to segmenting the body of segmented areas instead of the edge. To address these challenges, we propose the CM-MLP framework on MFI (Multi-scale Feature Interaction) block and ACRE (axial context relation encoder) block for accurate segmentation of the edge of medical image. In the MFI block, we propose the cascade multi-scale MLP (Cascade MLP) to process all local information from the deeper layers of the network simultaneously and utilize a cascade multiscale mechanism to fuse discrete local information gradually. Then, the ACRE block is used to make the deep supervision focus on exploring the boundary relationship between foreground and background to modify the edge of the medical image. The segmentation accuracy (Dice) of our proposed CM-MLP framework reaches 96.96%, 96.76%, and 82.54% on three benchmark datasets: CVC-ClinicDB dataset, sub-Kvasir dataset, and our in-house dataset, respectively, which significantly outperform the state-of-the-art method. The source code and trained models will be available at https://***/ProgrammerHyy/CM-MLP. Copyright © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Semantic Segmentation

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CM-MLP: Cascade Multi-scale MLP with Axial Context Relation Encoder for Edge Segmentation of Medical Image

CM-MLP: Cascade Multi-scale MLP with Axial Context Relation ...

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IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine (BIBM)

作者： Jinkai Lv Yuyong Hu Quanshui Fu Zhiwang Zhang Yuqiang Hu Lin Lv Guoqing Yang Jinpeng Li Yi Zhao Henan Institute of Advanced Technology Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou China Suining Central Hospital Suining China School of Electrical and Information Engineering The University of Sydney Sydney Australia School of Mathematics and Computer Sciences NanChang University Nanchang China School of Information and Software Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu China Hwa Mei Hospital University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Ningbo China The Research Center for Ubiquitous Computing Systems Institute of Computing Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

ISBN: (数字)9781665468190

ISBN: (纸本)9781665468206

The convolutional-based methods provide good segmentation performance in the medical image segmentation task. However, those methods have the following challenges when dealing with the edges of the medical images: (1) Previous convolutional-based methods do not focus on the boundary relationship between foreground and background around the segmentation edge, which leads to the degradation of segmentation performance when the edge changes complexly. (2) The inductive bias of the convolutional layer cannot be adapted to complex edge changes and the aggregation of multiple-segmented areas, resulting in its performance improvement mostly limited to segmenting the body of segmented areas instead of the edge. To address these challenges, we propose the CM-MLP framework on MFI (Multiscale Feature Interaction) block and ACRE (axial context relation encoder) block for accurate segmentation of the edge of medical image. In the MFI block, we propose the cascade multi-scale MLP (Cascade MLP) to process all local information from the deeper layers of the network simultaneously and utilize a cascade multiscale mechanism to fuse discrete local information gradually. Then, the ACRE block is used to make the deep supervision focus on exploring the boundary relationship between foreground and background to modify the edge of the medical image. The segmentation accuracy (Dice) of our proposed CM-MLP framework reaches 96.96%, 96.76%, and 82.54% on three benchmark datasets: CVC-ClinicDB dataset, sub-Kvasir dataset, and our inhouse dataset, respectively, which significantly outperform the state-of-the-art method. The source code and trained models will be available at https://***/ProgrammerHyy/CM-MLP.

关键词： Convolutional codes Degradation Image segmentation Fuses Convolution Image edge detection Source coding

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An energy-aware distributed open market model for UAV-assisted communications

An energy-aware distributed open market model for UAV-assist...

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IEEE Conference on Vehicular Technology (VTC)

作者： Rafay Iqbal Ansari Nouman Ashraf Christos Politis School of Computer Science and Mathematics Faculty of Science Engineering and Computing Kingston University London United Kingdom Telecommunications Software and Systems Group (TSSG) Waterford Institute of Technology Waterford Ireland.

ISBN: (数字)9781728152073

ISBN: (纸本)9781728140537

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have opened up numerous opportunities in terms of connectivity, especially in the context of realizing the vision of ubiquitous connectivity for 5G and beyond (B5G). The ease of mobility makes the UAV base stations (UAV-BSs) a viable candidate for providing `on demand' services to the users. Moreover, viewing the spectrum crunch experienced by traditional cellular networks, the UAV-BSs can share the burden of providing connectivity. UAV-BSs can open up several business opportunities for mobile network operators (MNOs). In this paper, we propose an open market model, where a UAV-BS has the opportunity to establish a link with a terrestrial BS (TBS) of an MNO that provides the best connectivity and offers a lower price. A distributed model is considered where the decision making power lies with the UAV-BS. The TBS-selection problem is modeled as an integer linear programming problem, where we compare the performance of the Greedy heuristic algorithm (GHA) and the backtracking algorithm (BA) to solve our selection problem. We also incorporate an energy prediction model which impacts the selection criteria. We analyze the performance GHA and BA algorithm by presenting a tradeoff between the two algorithms in terms of accuracy of TBS selection and convergence time.

关键词： Unmanned aerial vehicles Prediction algorithms Optimization Base stations Heuristic algorithms Predictive models Standardization

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Comparative analysis of time series model and machine testing systems for crime forecasting

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Neural Computing and Applications 2020年第17期33卷 10621-10636页

作者： Jha, Sudan Yang, Eunmok Almagrabi, Alaa Omran Bashir, Ali Kashif Joshi, Gyanendra Prasad School of Computer Science and Engineering Lovely Professional University Phagwara India School of Software Soongsil University Seoul South Korea Department of Information Systems King Abdul Aziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia Department of Computing and Mathematics Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science NUST Islamabad Pakistan Department of Computer Science and Engineering Sejong University Seoul South Korea

Crime forecasting has been one of the most complex challenges in law enforcement today, especially when an analysis tends to evaluate inferable and expanded crime rates, although a few methodologies for subsequent equivalents have been embraced before. In this work, we use a strategy for a time series model and machine testing systems for crime estimation. The paper centers on determining the quantity of crimes. Considering various experimental analyses, this investigation additionally features results obtained from a neural system that could be a significant alternative to machine learning and ordinary stochastic techniques. In this paper, we applied various techniques to forecast the number of possible crimes in the next 5 years. First, we used the existing machine learning techniques to predict the number of crimes. Second, we proposed two approaches, a modified autoregressive integrated moving average model and a modified artificial neural network model. The prime objective of this work is to compare the applicability of a univariate time series model against that of a variate time series model for crime forecasting. More than two million datasets are trained and tested. After rigorous experimental results and analysis are generated, the paper concludes that using a variate time series model yields better forecasting results than the predicted values from existing techniques. These results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods.

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AI-based Fog and Edge Computing: A Systematic Review, Taxonomy and Future Directions

arXiv

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arXiv 2022年

作者： Iftikhar, Sundas Gill, Sukhpal Singh Song, Chenghao Xu, Minxian Aslanpour, Mohammad Sadegh Toosi, Adel N. Du, Junhui Wu, Huaming Ghosh, Shreya Chowdhury, Deepraj Golec, Muhammed Kumar, Mohit Abdelmoniem, Ahmed M. Cuadrado, Felix Varghese, Blesson Rana, Omer Dustdar, Schahram Uhlig, Steve School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science Queen Mary University of London London United Kingdom University of Kotli Azad Jammu & Kashmir Azad Kashmir Kotli Pakistan Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenzhen China Department of Software Systems and Cybersecurity Faculty of Information Technology Monash University Australia Csiro DATA61 Australia Center for Applied Mathematics Tianjin University Tianjin China The Pennsylvania State University PA United States Naya Raipur India Abdullah Gül University Kayseri Turkey Department of Information Technology National Institute of Technology Jalandhar India Spain School of Computer Science University of St Andrews United Kingdom School of Computer Science and Informatics Cardiff University Cardiff United Kingdom Distributed Systems Group Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria

Resource management in computing is a very challenging problem that involves making sequential decisions. Resource limitations, resource heterogeneity, dynamic and diverse nature of workload, and the unpredictability of fog/edge computing environments have made resource management even more challenging to be considered in the fog landscape. Recently Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) based solutions are adopted to solve this problem. AI/ML methods with the capability to make sequential decisions like reinforcement learning seem most promising for these type of problems. But these algorithms come with their own challenges such as high variance, explainability, and online training. The continuously changing fog/edge environment dynamics require solutions that learn online, adopting changing computing environment. In this paper, we used standard review methodology to conduct this Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to analyze the role of AI/ML algorithms and the challenges in the applicability of these algorithms for resource management in fog/edge computing environments. Further, various machine learning, deep learning and reinforcement learning techniques for edge AI management have been discussed. Furthermore, we have presented the background and current status of AI/ML-based Fog/Edge Computing. Moreover, a taxonomy of AI/ML-based resource management techniques for fog/edge computing has been proposed and compared the existing techniques based on the proposed taxonomy. Finally, open challenges and promising future research directions have been identified and discussed in the area of AI/ML-based fog/edge computing. Copyright © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Edge computing

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Innovation, Research and Development in engineering Education. Activities of the Spanish Chapter of the IEEE Education Society: Directive Board of the IEEE Education Society Spanish Chapter 2020-2021

Innovation, Research and Development in Engineering Educatio...

引用

Technologies Applied to Electronics Teaching (TAEE)

作者： Ó scar Martí nez Bonastre Cristina Ferná ndez Lluí s Vicent Francisco Mur Manuel Castro Gabriel Diaz Jose Carpio Elio Sancristobal Sergio Martin Jose Sá nchez Francisco Javier Arcega Solsona Juan Suardiaz Muro Manuel Caeiro-Rodrí guez Martí n Llamas Inmaculada Plaza Baltasar Ferná ndez Manjó n Pedro Muñ oz-Merino Edmundo Tovar Telmo Zarraonandia Ayo Javier Garcia Zubia José Antonio Delgado Pení n Department of Statistics Mathematics and Computing Science Operations Research Centre Universidad Miguel Hern&#x00E1 ndez Elche Spain Department of Electronic Technology Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Madrid Spain UPF Barcelona School of Management Barcelona Spain Department of Electrical Electronic and Control Engineering UNED Madrid Spain Department of Electrical Engineering Universidad de Zaragoza Zaragoza Spain Department of Automatics Electrical Engineering and Electronic Technology Technical University of Cartagena Cartagena Spain atlanTTic Research Center University of Vigo Vigo Spain Department of Electronics and Communication Universidad de Zaragoza Zaragoza Spain Department of Software Engineering and Artificial Intelligence Complutense University of Madrid Madrid Spain Department of Telematic Engineering Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Madrid Spain Department of Computer Languages and Systems and Software Engineering Universidad Polit&#x00E9 cnica de Madrid Madrid Spain Department of Computer Science and Engineering Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Madrid Spain Department of Electronic Engineering Universidad de Deusto Bilbao Spain Universitat Polit&#x00E8 cnica de Catalunya Barcelona Spain

ISBN: (数字)9781665421614

ISBN: (纸本)9781665421621

The Technical Committee of the CESEI (Spanish Chapter of the IEEE Education Society) is focused on the Innovation, Research and Development (I+R+D) of the education in engineering, mainly Electric and computer engineering. As in other interdisciplinary fields, the I+R+D involves several sources of information and different stakeholders, each one with its own focus and purpose. As a result, sometimes it may be complex for practitioners and researchers to identify the more appropriate entities for their interests. This paper shows how the CESEI Technical Committee tries to solve this difficulty by providing updated information regarding the main publications (journals), events (conferences) and awards to the best academic works. The paper focuses special attention on the activities held during 2020–2021.

关键词： Technological innovation Collaboration Stakeholders engineering education Research and development

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