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Emergy-based urban dynamic modeling of long-run resource consumption, economic growth and environmental impact: conceptual considerations and calibration

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Procedia environmental Sciences 2012年 13卷 1179-1188页

作者： G.Y. Liu Z.F. Yang B. Chen State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

This paper describes the development of a forecasting model, named the emergy-based urban dynamic model capable of accurately simulating the observed resource consumption, economic growth and environmental impact of Beijing. This model differs from previous urban emergy models by monitoring the negative effects to human well-being and ecosystem integrity in the developing urban system. A fresh perspective focuses on urban comprehensive performance linking such impacts to a supply-side environmental cost evaluation (including ecological service supply, ecological and economic losses and investment for treatment). In this introductory paper, we present the conceptual considerations of the most important components of the emergy-based urban dynamic model: the urban assets, lands, capitals, population, water resources, economic and environmental loss. Each subsystem in this model will enrich the feedback dynamics, policy levers and post-scenario analyses. Statistical Information and calibration are also considered in this dynamic emergy accounting. This study advances the temporal dynamic principles of emergy accounting through integrating upstream and downstream evaluation methods to quantify the environmental impact by addressing specific damages to human health and ecosystem's integrity and by linking such impacts to a supply-side environmental cost evaluation.

关键词： Emergy dynamic model urban system calibration

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Species diversity and distribution for zooplankton in the inter-tidal wetlands of the Pearl River estuary, China

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Procedia environmental Sciences 2012年 13卷 2383-2393页

作者： Zhang Honggang Cui Baoshan Zhang zhiming Fan Xiaoyun State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Zooplankton is the important component of aquatic ecosystems and has become an important aspect of research in estuarine areas. However, zooplankton species composition and distribution in the inter-tidal wetlands are rarely studied. We investigated the zooplankton communities in the inter-tidal wetlands of the Pearl River estuary during March and April 2009 to study the species diversity and distribution of zooplankton. A total of 132 species of zooplankton were identified among the 39 sampling stations in the inter-tidal wetlands. The results of the research show that zooplankton abundance and biomass fluctuated widely and showed distinct heterogeneity among the different sampling sites. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that the significant spatial variability in the distribution of zooplankton species, abundance and biomass can be significantly affected by changes in the water environment. Distribution of the dominant species varied with the salinity of the sea water, and their amounts correlated negatively with nutrients. This study is important if we are to be able to identify the influence of the environmental characteristics of water on the distribution of zooplankton in the inter-tidal wetlands of estuaries, and it can provide a basis for the evaluation of the quality of inter-tidal wetlands based on zooplankton.

关键词： intertidal wetlands zooplankton diversity Pearl River estuary

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Total nitrogen and total phosphorous in urban soils used for different purposes in Beijing, China

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Procedia environmental Sciences 2012年 13卷 95-104页

作者： Xiuli Zhao Xinghui Xia State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

The concentration and spatial distribution of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), as well as variations in their levels, in land used for various activities were investigated, and the Kriging interpolation method was applied to describe the spatial distribution of TN and TP in urban soils in Beijing, China. The concentration of soil TP was higher in the middle of the city and lower in the outsides of the city. However, the levels of soil TN had no definite spatial distribution pattern. The contents of TN and TP were compared in land used for different purposes, and the spatial distribution of TN and TP, as well as the impact of human activities on TN and TP contents, in urban soils were also analyzed. Our results demonstrated that the TN levels depend on the coverage of natural vegetation at each type of site, and the TP content is affected by the usage and disposal of phosphorus-containing materials at each type of site.

关键词： Total Nitrogen (TN) Total Phosphorus (TP) Land use Beijing

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Scenario analysis of urban energy saving and carbon abatement policies: A case study of Beijing city, China

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Procedia environmental Sciences 2012年 13卷 632-644页

作者： Y.Y. Feng L.X. Zhang State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Cities account for nearly 75% of the world's energy consumption and contribute more than 80% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission; therefore, they attract initiatives aimed at energy conservation and reduction of emission. Currently, in China, diversified models and policies associated with urban development have been put forward including the sustainable city, eco-city and low-carbon city models, and urban recycling economy. However, the most eco-friendly model is currently not known. This research, taking Beijing as a case study, was conducted to predict the effects of different development alternatives on future energy consumption and carbon emission. A Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was built to analyze the future trends of energy demand, energy structure and carbon emission from the base year 2007 to 2030 under three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), basic-policy (BP) and low-carbon (LC). The results show that in the LC scenario the total energy demand in Beijing is expected to reach 88.61 million metric tons coal equivalent (Mtce) by 2030, 55.82% and 32.72% lower than those of the BAU and BP scenarios, respectively. The total carbon emissions in 2030 with the LC scenario, although higher than the 2007 values, will be 62.22% and 36.75% lower than the BAU and BP scenarios, respectively. In addition, clean and efficient energy will account for 58% of the total energy consumption of Beijing under the LC scenario in 2030; this is 17% and 12% higher than those of the BAU and BP scenarios, respectively. In terms of the reduction potential of energy consumption and carbon emissions, the industrial sector will continue to account for the largest proportion under the BP and LC scenarios when compared with the BAU scenario. Importantly, the building and transport sectors were identified as promising fields for achieving effective control of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing over the next two decades. Overall, the results of thi

关键词： LEAP model Beijing Low-carbon city Energy-saving and emission-reduction

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A dynamic low-carbon scenario analysis in case of Chongqing city

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Procedia environmental Sciences 2012年 13卷 1189-1203页

作者： Gengyuan Liu Zhifeng Yang Bin Chen Meirong Su State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

In this paper, a dynamic low-carbon model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. This study presents three scenarios for Chongqing's energy consumption and related CO2 emissions up to 2020, which includes basic development scenario, macro-policy control development scenario and low carbon development scenario. It explains the crucial technologies for Chongqing city as it leaves a business-as-usual trajectory and embarks on a low carbon pathway. A major finding from the scenario analysis is that low carbon and energy-saving policies can dramatically improve Chongqing's position. Under the low carbon scenario, several suggestions for policy making are proposed. This dynamic low-carbon model would benefit from the allocation of decision-making powers in the areas of regulation, policy-making and planning for low carbon development.

关键词： Low-carbon city dynamic model scenario analysis Chongqing

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Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area

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The Science of the total environment 2012年 420卷 79-89页

作者： Qiuying Chen Jingling Liu Kin Chung Ho Zhifeng Yang State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control & School of Environment Beijing Normal University 100875 Beijing China.

Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure.

关键词： Estuary Ecological risk assessment Model

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Estimates of chlorofluorocarbons,hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons emissions based on interspecies correlation method in the Pearl River Delta region,China

Estimates of chlorofluorocarbons,hydrochlorofluorocarbons an...

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第19届中国大气环境科学与技术大会暨中国环境科学学会大气环境分会2012年学术年会

作者： Jing Wu Xuekun Fang Zihan Zhai Shenshen Su Xia Hu Jiarui Han Jianbo Zhang Jianxin Hu State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking University Beijing China

In recent years, the extensive studies have been done for the emissions of Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the large-regional and national scale, while relatively fewer studies for those in the smaller regions, such as cities or metropolitan areas. In this study, 192 air samples were collected in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in November 2010. The atmospheric concentrations of the six halocarbons were analyzed, including trichlorofluoromethane(CFC-11, CCl3F), dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12, CCl2F2), monochlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22, CHClF2), 1, 1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane (HCFC-141b, CH3CCl2F), 1-dichloro-1, 1-fluoroethane (HCFC-142b, CH3CClF2), and 1, 1, 1, 2-Tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a, CH2FCF3). And their emissions were estimated based on interspecies correlations method, using HCFC-22 as the reference specie. The results showed that CFCs have been phased out effectively in the PRD region, but their continued bank emissions still exist. The concentration levels and emissions of HCFCs and HFCs are significantly higher than the previous research results in the PRD region (P<0. 05). The largest emission was found for HCFC-22, likely due to the effective substitutes for CFC-12 in the industrial and commercial refrigeration sub-sector, and the rapid development of the room air-conditioner and the extruded polystyrene (XPS) sub-sectors. Overall, the PRD emissions of six target halocarbons could be converted into 3. 3 (2. 3-4. 5) Gg/yr ODP-weighted emissions and 45. 2 (33. 1-58. 9)Tg/yr GWP-weighted emissions, which made an important contribution to China.

关键词： Interspecies correlation emission estimation global warming ozone depletion

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Water quality modeling for Daqing River,in China using QUAL2KW framework

Water quality modeling for Daqing River,in China using QUAL2...

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中国自然资源学会2012学术年会

作者： ZHANG Yu CUI Bao-shan Wang Sheng-rui School of Environment Beijing Normal UniversityState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory For Lake Pollution Control Research Center of Lake EnvironmentChinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

In this study a water quality modeling(QUAL2 KW) is presented to classify water quality conditions in the Daqing ***,moderate,and bad water quality conditions in dry and wet periods are identified *** quality lever is analyzed in dry and wet periods in the recently 10 *** the assessment of QUAL2 Kw framework,trying to explore the relation between water quality factors and water lever,this study can serve as a preliminary management tool for water allocation and a scientific basis for reasonable prevention and controlling the pollution in Daqing River.

关键词： QUAL2KW Water quality modeling Calibration Validation Daqing River

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Exergy-based sustainability evaluation of a wind power generation system

Exergy-based sustainability evaluation of a wind power gener...

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25th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization and simulation of Energy Conversion Systems and Processes, ECOS 2012

作者： Yang, J. Chen, B. Sciubba, E. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Roma 1 La Sapienza via Eudossiana 18 00184 Roma Italy

ISBN: (纸本)9788866553229

Huge greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from fossil fuel combustion and unsatisfied energy requirement have forced China to inquire into and change to environmental friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Therefore, renewable energy in China has experienced a prosperous development in the last decade and will continue to be the focus and key issue of future energy development planning. However, some environmentalists have long argued that whether renewable energy sources such as wind are preferable to fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), and which kind of renewable energy are more clean and sustainable. Quantitative evaluation to answer these questions thereby should be conducted. As extended exergy accounting (EEA) is a systematic exergo-economic method that adopts a single quantifier to account for materials, energy, labor and capital and to compute a presumed environmental impact based on remediation costs, it is a powerful tool for handling sustainability issues. Thus, aiming at evaluating the sustainability of renewable energy, we employ EEA to monitor the sustainability level of a wind power plant in China from the aspects of economic and environmental performance, and exergy efficiency. The results may provide some useful suggestions to support the environmentally sound renewable energy development.

关键词： Sustainable development

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Ecological network analysis of urban metabolism based on input-output table

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Procedia environmental Sciences 2012年 13卷 1616-1623页

作者： H.Liu Y. Zhang State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Xinjiekouwai Street No. 19 Beijing 100875 China

With the increasing metabolic throughput, the city as a giant organism causes resource consumption and environmental pollution, which become a bottleneck for urban ecological systems to develop healthily. Using Beijing as an example, we adopt the material flow method to account for resource consumption and waste emissions during the urban metabolic process. Combined with a monetary input-output table (MIOT) for Beijing in 2002, we compile a physical input-output table (PIOT) and build an ecological network model of the urban metabolic system including 45 nodes and 1761 network paths. Using flow analysis and utility analysis methods of ecological network, we can study the complex relationships and hierarchical structure to reveal the crux that results in the disorder of the urban metabolic process; thus, it can provide a scientific basis for healthy development of urban ecological systems.

关键词： System ecology Urban metabolism Physical input-output table Ecological network analysis Beijing

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