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Physics-Based predictions of the Month-by-Month Summer Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone

Journal of climate 2025年第10期38卷 2187-2203页

作者： Zhu, Zhiwei Yang, Ying Liu, Boqi State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China

This study identified the distinct predictors of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) in June, July, and August and revealed their independent influencing mechanisms on the formation of the summer WNPAC in each corresponding month. For the June WNPAC (AC_Jun), the North Atlantic warming (NAW) in April–May induces subsequently enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean and suppressed the convection over the tropical central Pacific, leading to AC_Jun via the Gill-type response. Meanwhile, the warming tendency over the western North Pacific from February to April, which reflects the slow decay of El Niño, results in AC_Jun through Indian Ocean warming. For the July WNPAC (AC_Jul), the cooling tendency from April to June over the central and eastern tropical Pacific is the sole predictor, which results in AC_Jul through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. For the August WNPAC (AC_Aug), the tropical Atlantic warming (TAW) in June and July and the Bering Strait sea ice slow melting (BSSM) from April to May are the two predictors. While TAW has a similar influence on AC_Aug to that of NAW on AC_Jun, BSSM makes for AC_Aug by strengthening the westerly jet and subsequently atmosphere–ocean coupling over the North Pacific. Using these predictors, three physics-based empirical models (PEMs) for the seasonal predictions of AC_Jun, AC_Jul, and AC_Aug are conducted, which all outperform the National Centers for Environmental prediction climate Forecast system (CFS), shedding light on improving the seasonal prediction of the East Asian summer climate. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Heat flux

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Causes of Winter Persistent Extreme Cold Events in Northeastern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 780-793页

作者： Ming YANG Qingjiu GAO Tim LI State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA

Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China Meteorological Data *** extreme cooling area and intensity indices associated with the ECEs exhibit a dominant 10–40-day periodicity,indicating a close link with atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs).The ECEs are categorized into W-and *** the former,the low-frequency cooling associated with the ISO first penetrates into the western boundary of the northeastern China domain and later occupies the entire domain at its peak *** upper-tropospheric circulation associated with this type is characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented Rossby wave train,expanding from the Ural Mountains to the western Pacific *** the latter,the cooling invades the northern boundary first and then penetrates into the entire *** upper tropospheric precursory signal associated with this type is a zonally oriented negative geopotential height anomaly,which slowly moves southward.A downward-propagating signal is observed in the stratospheric potential vorticity field prior to the peak cooling,implying a possible stratospheric *** addition to the W-and N-types,ECEs can also occur in a localized region near either at the northern or southern boundary of the domain.

关键词： extreme cold events low-frequency ISO mode Rossby wave train composite analysis downward propagation potential vorticity

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Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Summer Extreme Hot-Humid Compound Events over Southern Eurasia under Different Sea Surface Temperature Backgrounds

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 744-760页

作者： Yajing QI Haishan CHEN Siguang ZHU State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Land–atmosphere coupling and sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies both have essential impacts on weather and climate *** on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and the CESM1.2.2 model,this study investigates the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on summer extreme hot-humid events(EHHE)over southern Eurasia under different SST *** results suggest that coupling causes near-surface air temperature increases that exceed 0.5℃.From 1961 to 2020,the frequency of EHHE has continuously increased,and is closely related to soil moisture anomalies in the northern Indian Peninsula(IDP)and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(YRB).Numerical simulations further demonstrate that land–atmosphere coupling raises the risk of EHHE by 25.4%.In a typical El Niño SST background state,intensified land–atmosphere coupling tends to produce notable increases in the frequency of *** dominant processes that land–atmosphere coupling affects the EHHE variations are evidently different between these two *** surface thermal anomalies predominate in the IDP,while moisture conditions are more critical in the *** warm SST anomalies exist,dry soil anomalies in the IDP are prominent,and evaporation is constrained,increasing sensible heat *** geopotential height anomalies are significant,combined with adiabatic warming induced by descending motion and a noticeable warm center in the near-surface *** southward shift of the westerly jet enhances divergence over *** anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the western Pacific are conducive to guiding moisture transport to the YRB,providing a favorable circulation background for the development of summer EHHE.

关键词： land-atmosphere coupling sea surface temperature extreme hot-humid events southern Eurasia

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Enhanced influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter snowfall in northern China since 2000

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第4期68卷 1236-1244页

作者： Botao ZHOU Chuer GUO Yuepeng HU Wenxin XIE Bo SUN Tingting HAN Ning SHI State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory Hangzhou310002China

Because of the profound impacts of snowfall in northern China on the economy society and human lives,it is essential to understand the physical mechanisms behind the variability of snowfall in this *** on the observational and reanalysis data during 1961–2018,this study examines the relationship of winter snowfall over northern China with the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO).The results show that their relationship experiences an interdecadal change around *** 2000–2018,the NAO is significantly and negatively correlated to winter snowfall in northern *** the NAO is in the negative phase,the East Asian subtropical jet and polar front jet tend to move northward and southward,respectively,concomitant with an anomalous cyclonic circulation from Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal in the middle and lower *** an atmospheric background favors the increase of snowfall over northern China by empowering the interactions of cold air with moist airflows in the target ***,during 1981–1999,the association of the NAO with the above atmospheric circulations seems inconspicuous,thereby reducing its relation to winter snowfall in northern *** investigation suggests that the enhancement of the connection between the NAO and aforementioned atmospheric circulations may result from the westward displacement of the NAO southern center from the former period to the latter period.

关键词： Winter snowfall Northern China North Atlantic Oscillation Interdecadal change Atmospheric circulations

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Interdecadal Change of Relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

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Journal of climate 2025年第8期38卷 1855-1870页

作者： Wang, Zhen Zhou, Botao Zhao, Jiuwei State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

This article investigates the relationship between spring (March–May) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) from June to November. It is found that their relationship appears insignificant from 1950 to 1971, intensifies significantly from 1972 to 2010, and then weakens again since 2011. The interdecadal change of this relationship is strongly influenced by the meridional displacement of the North Atlantic jet stream (NAJS). During 1972–2010, the NAJS is located southward, facilitating the spread of Rossby wave energy to the equatorial region and enhancing the NAO impact on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). Generally, positive (negative) phases of the NAO relate to negative (positive) TNA SST anomalies in spring, subsequently triggering positive (negative) SST anomalies in the central Pacific through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The central Pacific SST anomalies, intensifying from summer to autumn, lead to a basin-uniform circulation anomaly over the WNP and ultimately control the WNP TCGF. Conversely, in the other two periods, owing to the northward shift of the NAJS, the influence of the NAO is constrained to the extratropics, thereby disrupting the linkage between the NAO and TNA SST anomalies. As a result, the interannual relationship of spring NAO with the WNP TCGF weakens. The decadal meridional shift of the NAJS is supposed to be associated with the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Tropical cyclone

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Probing links between climate change and solar variability using wavelet analyses

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2025年 1-18页

作者： Wang, Dong Jia, Wenjing State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

Possible links between the Earth’s surface temperature and solar variability are investigated using uni- and bivariate wavelet methods, in an attempt to attribute the fluctuations of the global mean surface temperature (GMST). Time-varying strengths of oscillations on different time scales in time series for several sets of GMST and solar activity indices are evaluated using continuous wavelet transform. Furthermore, possible relationships on different time scales between the GMST and solar activity time series are investigated using cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analyses. The results show that for the most prominent oscillations of solar activity on the ∼11-year scale, no statistically significant response is found in any of the temperature time series. Little evidence is found supporting the postulated link on the ∼60-year time scale between surface temperature and solar activity. The ∼60-year oscillations in the climate system likely stem from internal variabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, especially the variabilities in the North Atlantic and the associated variabilities in the western tropical Pacific, rather than solar variability. The latitudinal differences in temperature response to solar activity depend on time scales. Our findings do not support the notion that solar variability has been playing a dominant role in recent climate change.

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Impact of net-zero emissions on atmospheric CO_(2) concentration in China: Ideal simulations based on the GEOS-Chem model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第3期68卷 867-881页

作者： Jingye TAN Jun WANG Huiqin MAO Hengmao WANG Zhiqiang LIU Meirong WANG Ran YAN Xunmei WANG Fei JIANG Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling International Institute for Earth System ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural ResourcesSchool of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Satellite Environmental Application Center Ministry of Environmental ProtectionBeijing 100094China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of EducationCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Xizang Field Station for Scientific Observation and Research on Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog Xigazêand Mêdog National Climate ObservatoryXizang Meteorological ServiceLhasa 850000China

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2)) concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO_(2) concentrations. To investigate the impact of China's carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO_(2) concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard Earth Observing system Chemistry(GEOS-Chem). Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO_(2) (XCO_(2) ) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2(OCO-2) and surface CO_(2) measurements in Obs Pack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO_(2) . The model exhibits a root mean square error(RMSE) of 1.51 ppm(R^(2)=0.89) for OCO-2 XCO_(2) in China and 2.65 ppm(R^(2)=0.75) for surface CO_(2) concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr^(-1)in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO_(2) emissions in China decelerate the increasing trends of XCO_(2) to 1.81 ppm yr^(-1),making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude(SCA) of XCO_(2) is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO_(2) emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO_(2) trends over northern and southern China, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern China. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO_(2) emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO_(2) by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO_(2) sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally,trends and SCA in surface CO_(2) concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO_(2) emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO_(2) . Overall, our study underscores the pote

关键词： XCO_(2) GEOS-Chem Carbon neutrality Net-zero emissions Surface CO_(2)concentrations

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Seasonal prediction of Pre-Summer Clustered Heavy Precipitation Days in South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2025年第1期31卷 107-119页

作者： ZHI Yao HAN Ting-ting JIANG Shun-li WANG Hui-jun HAO Xin LI Shang-feng State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiGuangdong 519080 China Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Meteorology&Climate Change Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation Systems and East Asian MonsoonInstitute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin ProvinceChangchun 130062 China

Clustered heavy precipitation(CHP)events can severely impact human society,infrastructure,and natural ***,short-term climate prediction of CHP events is vital for the prevention and mitigation of associated *** year-to-year increment(DY)and multiple linear regression approaches,this study developed a seasonal prediction model for pre-summer(i.e.,May and June)CHP frequency in South China(SC)during 1981–*** robust predictor factors were identified:March sea surface temperature in Southwestern Atlantic,early-winter snow depth in East Europe,and winter soil moisture in Central *** predictors exert substantial impacts on presummer precipitation in SC via modulation of an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)over the(subtropical)western North *** leave-one-out cross-validation test during 1981–2022,the prediction model exhibited reasonable performance in predicting the interannual and interdecadal variations and trends of CHP *** temporal correlation coefficient(TCC)was 0.66 between the observations and *** the independent hindcast for 2013–2022,the TCC was as high as ***,coherent covariations were observed between the frequency and the amounts of CHP,with a TCC of 0.99 for 1981–*** three predictors show good performance in forecasting CHP amounts over SC,with a TCC of 0.68 between the predictions and observations in the cross-validation test during 1981–2022 and of 0.86 in the independent hindcasts during 2013–***,the predictors also showed good predictive skill for years with high CHP occurrence(e.g.,1998 and 2019).The predicted high-incidence areas of heavy precipitation days were highly consistent with observations,with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.44(0.55)for 1998(2019).This study provides valuable insights to improve seasonal prediction of pre-summer CHP frequency in SC.

关键词： seasonal prediction clustered heavy precipitation South China interannual increment

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture memory: an integrated analysis using multiple metrics and datasets

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climate Dynamics 2025年第5期63卷 1-15页

作者： Wei, Jiangfeng Song, Renjie State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

The ability of soil moisture to memorize past climatic anomalies—known as soil moisture memory (SMM)—is a potential factor influencing weather and climate predictions. However, our understanding of its spatiotemporal characteristics remains inadequate. In this study, we compared the boreal warm season (April–September) surface and root zone SMM across five gridded global datasets using metrics of lagged autocorrelation time scale, average duration of dry/wet anomalies, and stored precipitation fraction. Research revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in SMM, with generally higher SMM in drier regions. The SMMs from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and the stored precipitation fraction method diverge more from those of other datasets and metrics. Globally, SMM tends to be greater during El Niño years compared to La Niña years, which is linked to the generally drier climate conditions typical of El Niño phases. Comparison with in situ data reveals that the gridded datasets are generally consistent with observations in terms of soil moisture variability and memory. This study provides a reference for the spatiotemporal features of SMM, contributing to model evaluation and climate prediction.

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Asymmetric modulation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on ENSO amplitude

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climate Dynamics 2025年第5期63卷 1-16页

作者： Guo, Xingyang Xu, Haiming Ma, Jing Deng, Jiechun State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center On Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology 219 Ning Liu Road Nanjing 210044 China

We investigate the asymmetric modulation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude using long-term observational and reanalysis datasets. Results show that the modulation of the AMO on ENSO amplitude exhibits significant asymmetry in both eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types and El Niño (El) and La Niña (La) events. Both CP-La and EP-El events are significantly strengthened during the negative AMO phase, while EP-La and CP-El events show no remarkable changes under different AMO phases. Using ocean mixed layer heat budget, we show that the thermocline feedback and net surface heat flux are crucial for the strengthening of CP-La, while zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback favor the intensification of EP-El during the negative AMO phase. Further analyses reveal that during the negative AMO phase there are relatively colder sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western equatorial Pacific with weakened trade wind, while warmer SSTs occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific with strengthened trade wind, leading to a weakening of zonal SST gradient. As a result, the thermocline deepens (shallows) with the negative (positive) Ekman pumping velocity (EPV) in the eastern (central) equatorial Pacific. These conditions collectively favor the strengthening of CP-La and EP-El events. During the negative AMO phase, the relatively dry background and the zonal winds over the tropical Pacific can lead to significant dry advection toward the central tropical Pacific, which enlarges the local sea-air humidity difference and promotes the release of latent heat flux from the ocean to strengthen CP-La. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.

关键词： Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ENSO amplitude asymmetry Equatorial Pacific Ocean Mixed layer heat budget Multi-timescale variability

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