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Gap-filling products for three GRACE/GRACE-FO mascon solutions

Geodesy and Geodynamics 2025年第2期16卷 223-229页

作者： Pu Xie Shuang Yi National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application/College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing101408China

The primary mission of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite and its successor,GRACE Follow-On(GRACE-FO),is to provide time-variable gravity fields,and its observations have been widely used in various ***,the nearly one-year gap between GRACE and GRACE-FO has affected our ability to obtain continuous time-variable gravity *** this study,we use the Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA)method to fll the nearly one-year gap between the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions,as well as the gaps within the GRACE mission itself,to generate a continuous and complete mascon product from April 2002 to December *** products are evaluated at the basin scale in Greenland,Antarctica,and ten river basins worldwide,as well as across *** results show that our flled data can effectively recover seasonal and interannual signals and exhibit good consistency with previous *** products provided in this study will benefit GRACE applications related to oceans,glaciers,and terrestrial water storage.

关键词： Singular spectrum analysis GRACE GRACE-FO Mascon solutions Data gap flling

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Accelerated warming of High Mountain Asia predicted at multiple years ahead

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Science Bulletin 2025年第3期70卷 419-428页

作者： Shuai Hu Tianjun Zhou Bo Wu Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

High-Mountain Asia(HMA)is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar *** feeds ten great rivers,ultimately supporting more than 2 billion ***,the threat of accelerated glacier melt,which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s,threatens water resources in the surrounding *** predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate ***,based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments,we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance,and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction ***-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025-2032,where the surface warming will increase by 0.98°C(0.67 to 1.33°C;5%to 95%range)relative to the reference period 1991-2020,which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during *** decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes,which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin *** warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4%.This change poses unprecedented challenges,including potential water scarcity,ecosystem disruption,and increased risk of natural disasters,to HMA and surrounding regions.

关键词： Decadal prediction High Mountain Asia Surface air temperature Pacific decadal variabilities Glacier

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A 42-Year Statistic on the Dabie Vortices: Multiscale Temporal Characteristics and Associated Mechanisms, and Hourly Rainfall Features

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Journal of Climate 2025年第7期38卷 1553-1572页

作者： Fu, Shen-Ming Zhang, Jing-Ping Xiao, Xue Huang, Ting-Ting Sun, Jian-Hua National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin, there is an important type of mesoscale vortices, which are referred to as the Dabie vortex (DBV). DBV has formed a research focus for decades, as it frequently induces flash-flood-producing rainstorms along their tracks. However, of all existing DBV-related studies, none have ever investigated DBVs’ long-term climatological features, and all the basic features of DBVs are obtained from short-term statistics and/or case studies. To partly fill these knowledge gaps, we conduct a 42-yr statistical study on the DBVs by using the hourly fifth major global reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) reanalysis data. New findings mainly include the following: On an interdecadal scale, from 1983 to 2016, DBVs’ occurrence frequency shows a significant increasing trend of;0.3 DBV a̶1, which may correspond to the enhancing horizontal transport of vorticity by the intensifying summer monsoon (a trend of 0.23 day̶1 in summer monsoon index). Monthly variation of DBVs’ occurrence/appearance frequency (maximizes in June) is consistent with monthly variations of summer monsoon and its associated divergence, which affect DBVs’ formation through vertical stretching. DBVs’ diurnal variation shows two peaks at 2200 UTC (;9.8% in proportion) and at 1000 UTC (;6.8%), respectively, with the former more stable than the latter. Both local diurnal variation and nonlocal forcings are crucial for producing these two peaks. As rainfall intensity grows, the relative importance of DBVs’ contribution increases from;13.6% (accumulated precipitation) to;71.5% (heaviest precipitation) within DBVs’ source region. Inside/outside the source region,;15.2%/;1.4% of the strongest local hourly precipitation is directly related to the DBVs. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Storms

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Assessing CryoSat-2 Satellite's seasonal accuracy in lake water level monitoring

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2025年第2期16卷 172-182页

作者： Huake Zhang Xiaokang Kou Huan Xu Shuang Yi Wenke Sun Qiuyu Wang Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application/College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China Shijiazhuang Tiedao University Shijiazhuang 050043China China National Nuclear Corporation(CNNC)Engineering Research Center of 3D Geographic Information Shijiazhuang 050043China

Changes in lake levels,as an indicator of climate change,are crucial for understanding water *** altimetry has proven to be an effective technique for monitoring water level changes in inland ***,high-altitude and high-latitude lakes undergo seasonal freezing and melting,affecting satellite altimetry *** paper evaluates the accuracy of lake level height observations by the CryoSat-2,which uses synthetic aperture radar(SAR)across ***,we used lake boundary based on optical remote sensing data to extract the footprints of CryoSat-2 that fall on Namco and Zhari *** elevation conversion and anomaly identification,we obtained the time series of lake *** data were compared and verified against lake levels from in-situ measurements to assess the accuracy of *** results show that CryoSat-2 can monitor lake level height with an accuracy of about 10-13 *** correlation coefficient between CryoSat-2 observations and in-situ measurements over Namco is 0.80(p<0.01),with a Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of 13 *** Zhari Namco,the correlation coefficient is 0.91,with an RMSE of 10 cm,indicating a better *** the seasonal scale,the seasonal correlation coefficients between CryoSat-2 and in-situ measurement in Namco are 0.47(spring),0.79(summer),and 0.91(fall)with no observations available for *** lower correlation in spring may be due to incomplete ice *** Zhari Namco,the seasonal correlation coefficients are O.89(spring),0.93(summer),0.89(fall),and 0.87(winter).The results show that CryoSat-2 accuracy is higher in summer and fall,while slightly lower in spring and winter,indicating that ice formation affects *** during winter,the altimetry results do not significantly exceed the in-situ lake water level observations.

关键词： CryoSat-2 satellite Qinghai-Xizang plateau Lake level Accuracy assessment Correlation analysis

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Targeted sounding observations from geostationary satellite and impacts on high impact weather forecasts

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Science China earth Sciences 2025年第4期68卷 963-976页

作者： Wei HAN Ruoying YIN Jun LI Yongzhu LIU Jincheng WANG Yonghui LI Xiaohao QIN Zhiqing ZHANG Xueshun SHEN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing100081China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Beijing100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408China

In monitoring and predicting high-impact weather(HIW)events,targeted atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding observations in sensitive areas are more valuable than conventional *** conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method and the linear singular vector(SV)method can be employed to identify these weather-sensitive areas for targeted *** observations can be conducted by using hyperspectral infrared sounders onboard geostationary weather *** Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)onboard China's Fengyun(FY)-4geostationary satellite series can provide atmospheric sounding observations with a temporal resolution of up to 15 min over areas prone to active weather *** offers unprecedented opportunities for targeted observations,enabling flexible measurement modes that focus on weather-sensitive ***-temporal-resolution measurements not only reveal the threedimensional(3D)thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere,but also track moisture characteristics to capture the 3D dynamic ***,high-temporal-resolution measurements of clear radiances can enhance atmospheric sounding retrievals(used for HIW situation awareness)and data assimilation(used to improve numerical weather prediction).The four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)system facilitates the utilization of the high-temporal-resolution GIIRS targeted *** this study,we explore the applications of FY-4A and FY-4B GIIRS targeted observations and focus on data assimilation based on the 4DVar system for improving HIW *** typhoon cases are selected for impact ***,we compare CNOP and SV methods for identifying sensitive areas,and use the 4D-Var assimilation system of the Global Assimilation Forecasting system of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-GFS)for real-time data *** results indicate hightemporal-resolution observations positively impact typhoon forecasts,with high

关键词： Targeted observations GIIRS Data assimilation High temporal resolution THORPEX

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The sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon simulation to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling in the FGOALS-f climate system model

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 44-57页

作者： Xin-Yu HE Bian HE Qing BAO Yi-Min LIU Jian-Dong LI Xiao-Cong WANG Xiao-Chen CHEN Guo-Xiong WU National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Straits Severe WeatherChina Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350008China Fujian Climate Center Fuzhou 350008China

The relative importance between horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling on improving Asian summer monsoon(ASM)simulation skill remains *** this study,we investigated the sensitivity of ASM to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling via simulations using a series of versions of the FGOALS-f *** possible causes of bias are further *** results show that the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)run of high model resolution(25 km)achieves the highest skill on capturing ASM pattern,while the AMIP run of low model resolution(100 km)appears the lowest *** analysis of the hydrological cycle and monsoon dynamics suggested that the simulation of the vertical moisture transport term was the primary contributor to excessive precipitation over the western *** addition,the excessive release of latent heat and strong ASM circulation are also responsible for the strong precipitation intensity in the AMIP ***,although the air-sea coupled simulation exhibited the higher skill level,the simulated sea surface temperature(SST)exhibited an overall cold *** cold bias partly counteracted excessive moisture transport after air-sea interaction is ***,increasing resolution could be helpful for more accurate simulation of advection,and together with the use of prescribed observed daily SST could play more important roles than only considering air-sea coupling on improving ASM simulations.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon High resolution Air-sea interaction FGOALS-f3 Hydrological cycle

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Intensified Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Simulations Employing a High-Wind Drag Relation over Sea Surface

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Journal of Climate 2025年第10期38卷 2205-2223页

作者： Wei, Wei Lu, Yixiong Yang, Shunan Liu, Yiming Wu, Tongwen Song, Zhenya Qiao, Fangli Li, Yubin Wu, Fanghua Rong, Xinyao Li, Jianglong CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing China National Meteorological Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China First Institute of Oceanography Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural Resources Qingdao China School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

Accurate parameterization of momentum fluxes at high winds across the air–sea interface is crucial for realistically simulating the surface wind fields of tropical cyclones (TCs). Climate models often struggle to reproduce observed TC intensities, particularly surface wind speeds. This study evaluates the performance of a revised surface drag scheme with a capping drag coefficient at high wind speeds in global climate models (GCMs). Our results indicate that the revised surface drag scheme significantly improves the representation of TCs in a statistical sense: (i) Not only the mature intensity but also the maximum 10-m wind speeds throughout the TC life cycle are largely enhanced;(ii) biases in the pressure–wind relationship are notably alleviated, exhibiting reasonable agreement with observations;and (iii) other TC statistical features, such as TC number, central sea level pressure, individual lifetime, and intensification rate, show relatively minor sensitivity to the surface drag schemes. The main reason for the superiority of the revised high-wind drag relation is that the lower drag coefficient in high-wind conditions significantly increases the maximum potential intensity (MPI), indicating a higher theoretical limit for TC intensities. These findings are consistent across different model versions and resolutions, highlighting the robustness of the high-wind surface drag parameterization in controlling the simulated surface wind speeds of TCs in GCMs. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Tropical cyclone

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Relationship of Ural Blocking Zonal Width to Cold Air Intrusion in China under Varying Barents–Kara Sea Ice Conditions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2025年第02期39卷 338-351页

作者： Wenjun SONG Yan LI Yao YAO Mengying DU Qi WEN Jiaqi SHI College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate–Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The zonal width of the Ural blocking （UB） is a potentially crucial characteristic related to cold events in *** most studies focus on the intensity, duration, frequency, and mobility of blocking events, the importance of UB zonal width has often been overlooked. Against the backdrop of the declining Arctic sea ice concentration （SIC）,the changes in UB zonal width and their association with winter extreme cold events in China remain unclear and require further investigation. This study defines the UB zonal width as the longitude difference between the easternmost and westernmost points of the 120-gpm contour line in the 500-hPa geopotential height （Z500） anomaly ***/NCARreanalysisdataandSICobservationsduring1970–2020,theUBwidthandcoldair events under varied SIC conditions are examined. It is found that as SIC decreases in the Barents–Kara Sea （BKS）,the UB extends zonally, coinciding with the transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） from its positive to negative phase. Additionally, linear baroclinic model （LBM） simulations indicate that as the BKS warms, the zonal width of the UB broadens. Concurrently, warming sea surface temperatures （SST） in the BKS lead to decreased 500-hPa zonal wind （U500） and meridional potential vorticity gradient （PVy） over mid–high latitudes in Eurasia. As a result, energy dispersion weakens and nonlinearity strengthens in the Ural region, resulting in a more zonal extension of the UB. Consequently, the frequency of winter cold events of varying intensities in China increases, such as high-tolow latitude （H–L） and middle-to-low latitude （M–L） cold events. For H–L cold events, both intensity and frequency are higher during low SIC years when the UB widens. Conversely, for M–L events, there is no significant difference in the relationship of UB and cold air intrusion between high and low SIC years. Overall, reduced BKS SIC leads to a more zonal extension of the UB, facilitating the southward movement of co

关键词： Barents–Kara sea ice extreme cold event North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) potential vorticity gradient Ural blocking zonal width

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Eigen microstate analysis unveils climate dynamics

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2025年第4期68卷 91-100页

作者： Hua Tu Shang Wang Jun Meng Yongwen Zhang Xiaosong Chen Deliang Chen Jingfang Fan School of Systems Science/Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Data Science Research Center Faculty of ScienceKunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650500China Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Department of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany

The earth's climate operates as a complex,dynamically interconnected system,driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings and modulated by nonlinear interactions and feedback *** study employs a theoretical framework and the Eigen Microstate(EM)approach of statistical physics to examine global surface temperature variations since 1948,as revealed by a global *** identified EMs significantly correlated with key climate phenomena such as the global monsoon system,tropical climates,and El Niñ*** analysis reveals that these EMs have increasingly influenced global surface temperature variations over recent decades,highlighting the critical roles of hemispheric differences,land-sea contrasts,and tropical climate fluctuations in a warming ***,we used model simulations from more than 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under three future climate scenarios to perform a comparative analysis of the changes in each EM *** results indicate that under future warming scenarios,tropical climate fluctuations will become increasingly dominant,while traditional hemispheric and monsoonal patterns may *** shift underscores the importance of understanding tropical dynamics and their impact on global climate from a physics-based *** study provides a new perspective on understanding and addressing global climate change,enhancing the theoretical foundation of this critical field,and yielding findings with significant practical implications for improving climate models and developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

关键词： statistical physics nonlinear dynamics complex systems climate change

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Early and Late Summer Relationships between the Silk Road Pattern and the Precipitation Variation Surrounding the Northern Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Climate 2025年第11期38卷 2543-2556页

作者： Hong, Xiaowei Lu, Riyu Climate Change Research Center Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The Silk Road pattern (SRP) is an important summer teleconnection pattern across the midlatitude Eurasia and is featured by alternate southerly and northerly wind anomalies along the upper-tropospheric westerly jet. It affects significantly the boreal summer climate, including those around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which has been investigated much based on the summer mean results. However, the SRP shows substantial differences between early and late summer, which are separated at early July. This study identifies that the SRP’s impacts on precipitation surrounding the TP differ much between the two periods: The SRP-related precipitation anomalies are significant over the northeastern TP (NETP) in early summer, but shift northwestwards to domains around the northwestern TP (NWTP) in late summer. These differences can be attributed to the subseasonal change of the SRP and its configurations with the thermal condition surrounding the TP. The SRP is located more westward in late summer than in early summer. Correspondingly, the SRP-related southerly anomalies around the TP prevail over the NETP in early summer but over the NWTP in late summer. Superimposed onto the climatological thermal contrast between the humid southern TP and the dry north, these southerly anomalies favor the northward moisture transport and local precipitation genesis. NETP and NWTP are two domains with greater precipitation amount surrounding the northern TP and are crucial for the Asian ecological and environmental balance. Therefore, the present study holds practical implications for enhancing the accuracy of summer precipitation forecasts surrounding the TP on a subseasonal time scale and further improves regional climate adaptation and water resource management. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Precipitation Regional effects Subseasonal variability Teleconnections

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