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Accelerated warming of High Mountain Asia predicted at multiple years ahead

Science Bulletin 2025年第3期70卷 419-428页

作者： Shuai Hu Tianjun Zhou Bo Wu Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

High-Mountain Asia(HMA)is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar *** feeds ten great rivers,ultimately supporting more than 2 billion ***,the threat of accelerated glacier melt,which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s,threatens water resources in the surrounding *** predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate ***,based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments,we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance,and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction ***-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025-2032,where the surface warming will increase by 0.98°C(0.67 to 1.33°C;5%to 95%range)relative to the reference period 1991-2020,which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during *** decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes,which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin *** warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4%.This change poses unprecedented challenges,including potential water scarcity,ecosystem disruption,and increased risk of natural disasters,to HMA and surrounding regions.

关键词： Decadal prediction High Mountain Asia Surface air temperature Pacific decadal variabilities Glacier

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Targeted sounding observations from geostationary satellite and impacts on high impact weather forecasts

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Science China Earth sciences 2025年第4期68卷 963-976页

作者： Wei HAN Ruoying YIN Jun LI Yongzhu LIU Jincheng WANG Yonghui LI Xiaohao QIN Zhiqing ZHANG Xueshun SHEN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing100081China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Beijing100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408China

In monitoring and predicting high-impact weather(HIW)events,targeted atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding observations in sensitive areas are more valuable than conventional *** conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method and the linear singular vector(SV)method can be employed to identify these weather-sensitive areas for targeted *** observations can be conducted by using hyperspectral infrared sounders onboard geostationary weather *** Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)onboard China's Fengyun(FY)-4geostationary satellite series can provide atmospheric sounding observations with a temporal resolution of up to 15 min over areas prone to active weather *** offers unprecedented opportunities for targeted observations,enabling flexible measurement modes that focus on weather-sensitive ***-temporal-resolution measurements not only reveal the threedimensional(3D)thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere,but also track moisture characteristics to capture the 3D dynamic ***,high-temporal-resolution measurements of clear radiances can enhance atmospheric sounding retrievals(used for HIW situation awareness)and data assimilation(used to improve numerical weather prediction).The four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)system facilitates the utilization of the high-temporal-resolution GIIRS targeted *** this study,we explore the applications of FY-4A and FY-4B GIIRS targeted observations and focus on data assimilation based on the 4DVar system for improving HIW *** typhoon cases are selected for impact ***,we compare CNOP and SV methods for identifying sensitive areas,and use the 4D-Var assimilation system of the Global Assimilation Forecasting System of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-GFS)for real-time data *** results indicate hightemporal-resolution observations positively impact typhoon forecasts,with high

关键词： Targeted observations GIIRS Data assimilation High temporal resolution THORPEX

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A 42-Year Statistic on the Dabie Vortices: Multiscale Temporal Characteristics and Associated Mechanisms, and Hourly Rainfall Features

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Journal of Climate 2025年第7期38卷 1553-1572页

作者： Fu, Shen-Ming Zhang, Jing-Ping Xiao, Xue Huang, Ting-Ting Sun, Jian-Hua National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin, there is an important type of mesoscale vortices, which are referred to as the Dabie vortex (DBV). DBV has formed a research focus for decades, as it frequently induces flash-flood-producing rainstorms along their tracks. However, of all existing DBV-related studies, none have ever investigated DBVs’ long-term climatological features, and all the basic features of DBVs are obtained from short-term statistics and/or case studies. To partly fill these knowledge gaps, we conduct a 42-yr statistical study on the DBVs by using the hourly fifth major global reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) reanalysis data. New findings mainly include the following: On an interdecadal scale, from 1983 to 2016, DBVs’ occurrence frequency shows a significant increasing trend of;0.3 DBV a̶1, which may correspond to the enhancing horizontal transport of vorticity by the intensifying summer monsoon (a trend of 0.23 day̶1 in summer monsoon index). Monthly variation of DBVs’ occurrence/appearance frequency (maximizes in June) is consistent with monthly variations of summer monsoon and its associated divergence, which affect DBVs’ formation through vertical stretching. DBVs’ diurnal variation shows two peaks at 2200 UTC (;9.8% in proportion) and at 1000 UTC (;6.8%), respectively, with the former more stable than the latter. Both local diurnal variation and nonlocal forcings are crucial for producing these two peaks. As rainfall intensity grows, the relative importance of DBVs’ contribution increases from;13.6% (accumulated precipitation) to;71.5% (heaviest precipitation) within DBVs’ source region. Inside/outside the source region,;15.2%/;1.4% of the strongest local hourly precipitation is directly related to the DBVs. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Storms

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The sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon simulation to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling in the FGOALS-f climate system model

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 44-57页

作者： Xin-Yu HE Bian HE Qing BAO Yi-Min LIU Jian-Dong LI Xiao-Cong WANG Xiao-Chen CHEN Guo-Xiong WU National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Straits Severe WeatherChina Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350008China Fujian Climate Center Fuzhou 350008China

The relative importance between horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling on improving Asian summer monsoon(ASM)simulation skill remains *** this study,we investigated the sensitivity of ASM to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling via simulations using a series of versions of the FGOALS-f *** possible causes of bias are further *** results show that the atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)run of high model resolution(25 km)achieves the highest skill on capturing ASM pattern,while the AMIP run of low model resolution(100 km)appears the lowest *** analysis of the hydrological cycle and monsoon dynamics suggested that the simulation of the vertical moisture transport term was the primary contributor to excessive precipitation over the western *** addition,the excessive release of latent heat and strong ASM circulation are also responsible for the strong precipitation intensity in the AMIP ***,although the air-sea coupled simulation exhibited the higher skill level,the simulated sea surface temperature(SST)exhibited an overall cold *** cold bias partly counteracted excessive moisture transport after air-sea interaction is ***,increasing resolution could be helpful for more accurate simulation of advection,and together with the use of prescribed observed daily SST could play more important roles than only considering air-sea coupling on improving ASM simulations.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon High resolution Air-sea interaction FGOALS-f3 Hydrological cycle

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Interannual variability of surface Indonesian Throughflow and its relationships with Pacific and Indian Oceans derived from satellite observation

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2025年第1期44卷 1-16页

作者： Yingyi Yang Tengfei Xu Zexun Wei Dingqi Wang Zhongrui Cai Yunzhuo Zhang Yongshun Ma First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao Marine Science and Technology CenterQingdao 266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences ThrustThe Hong Kong University of Science and Technology(Guangzhou)Guangzhou 511400China Zhonghai Yuntian(Guangdong)Marine Technology Co. LTDGuangzhou 510275China

The Indonesian Throughflow(ITF)plays important roles in global ocean circulation and climate *** studies suggested the ITF interannual variability is driven by both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)*** detailed processes of ENSO and/or IOD induced anomalies impacting on the ITF,however,are still not *** this study,this issue is investigated through causal relation,statistical,and dynamical analyses based on satellite *** results show that the driven mechanisms of ENSO on the ITF include two ***,the ENSO related wind field anomalies driven anomalous cyclonic ocean circulation in the western Pacific,and off equatorial upwelling Rossby waves propagating westward to arrive at the western boundary of the Pacific,both tend to induce negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHA)in the western Pacific,favoring ITF reduction since the develop of the El Niño through the following ***,the ENSO events modulate equatorial Indian Ocean zonal winds through Walker Circulation,which in turn trigger eastward propagating upwelling Kelvin waves and westward propagating downwelling Rossby *** Rossby waves are reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves,which then propagate eastward along the equator and the Sumatra-Java coast in the Indian *** a result,the wave dynamics tend to generate negative(positive)SSHA in the eastern Indian Ocean,and thus enhance(reduce)the ITF transport with time lag of 0-6 months(9-12 months),*** the IOD condition,the wave dynamics also tend to enhance the ITF in the positive IOD year,and reduce the ITF in the following year.

关键词： Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) interannual variability information flow Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)

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Deep Learning-based Bias Correction Method for Seasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall in China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2025年第1期31卷 64-74页

作者： QU An-kang BAO Qing ZHU Tao LUO Zhao-ming State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408 China

Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China plays a crucial role in decision-making,environmental protection,and socio-economic development,while it currently has a low prediction *** developed a deep learning-based seasonal prediction bias correction method for summer rainfall in *** on prediction fields from the flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model finite volume version 2(FGOALS-f2),we optimized the loss function of U-Net,trained with different hyperparameters,and selected the optimum model.U-Net model can extract multi-scale feature information and preserve spatial information,making it suitable for processing meteorological *** this endto-end model,the precipitation distribution can be obtained directly without using the traditional method of data dimensionality reduction(e.g.,Empirical Orthogonal Function),which could maximize the retention of spatio-temporal information of the input *** of the loss function enhances the prediction results and mitigates model *** independent prediction shows a significant skill improvement measured by the anomalous correlation coefficient *** skill has an average value of 0.679 in China(0°–63°N,73°–133°E)and 0.691 in the region of the Chinese mainland,which significantly improves the dynamical prediction skill by 1357%and 4836%.This study suggests that the deep learning(U-Net)-based seasonal prediction bias correction method is a promising approach for improving rainfall prediction of the dynamical model.

关键词： seasonal prediction rainfall statistical-dynamical model deep learning

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Relationship of Ural Blocking Zonal Width to Cold Air Intrusion in China under Varying Barents–Kara Sea Ice Conditions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2025年第2期39卷 338-351页

作者： Wenjun SONG Yan LI Yao YAO Mengying DU Qi WEN Jiaqi SHI College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate–Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

The zonal width of the Ural blocking （UB） is a potentially crucial characteristic related to cold events in *** most studies focus on the intensity, duration, frequency, and mobility of blocking events, the importance of UB zonal width has often been overlooked. Against the backdrop of the declining Arctic sea ice concentration （SIC）,the changes in UB zonal width and their association with winter extreme cold events in China remain unclear and require further investigation. This study defines the UB zonal width as the longitude difference between the easternmost and westernmost points of the 120-gpm contour line in the 500-hPa geopotential height （Z500） anomaly ***/NCARreanalysisdataandSICobservationsduring1970–2020,theUBwidthandcoldair events under varied SIC conditions are examined. It is found that as SIC decreases in the Barents–Kara Sea （BKS）,the UB extends zonally, coinciding with the transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） from its positive to negative phase. Additionally, linear baroclinic model （LBM） simulations indicate that as the BKS warms, the zonal width of the UB broadens. Concurrently, warming sea surface temperatures （SST） in the BKS lead to decreased 500-hPa zonal wind （U500） and meridional potential vorticity gradient （PVy） over mid–high latitudes in Eurasia. As a result, energy dispersion weakens and nonlinearity strengthens in the Ural region, resulting in a more zonal extension of the UB. Consequently, the frequency of winter cold events of varying intensities in China increases, such as high-tolow latitude （H–L） and middle-to-low latitude （M–L） cold events. For H–L cold events, both intensity and frequency are higher during low SIC years when the UB widens. Conversely, for M–L events, there is no significant difference in the relationship of UB and cold air intrusion between high and low SIC years. Overall, reduced BKS SIC leads to a more zonal extension of the UB, facilitating the southward movement of co

关键词： Barents–Kara sea ice extreme cold event North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) potential vorticity gradient Ural blocking zonal width

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Performance of CRA-40 reanalysis in representing the Antarctic winter stratospheric circulation: a comparison with ERA-5 and MERRA-2

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第2期9卷 452-459页

作者： ZiXu Wang JingGao Hu Jing-Jia Luo Jian Rao ZongZe Li LiuChi Yan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This paper evaluates a representation of winter stratospheric circulation in the Antarctic that is based on CRA-40, a 40-year global reanalysis dataset released by the China Meteorological Administration, and compares it with representations based on two other state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets: the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA-5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2(MERRA-2). In terms of climatology, we find that CRA-40 portrays a stronger and colder polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere than ERA-5, but a weaker and warmer one than MERRA-2. However, disagreement among the three reanalyses is confined mainly to the period before1999, and is largely reduced after that time. On the interannual timescale, portrayals of the intensity and area of the 10-hPa polar vortex are quite consistent among the three reanalyses, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 between each pair of reanalyses. In addition, the central dates of most sudden stratospheric deceleration(SSD) events at 10 hPa in the three reanalyses differ by less than one day, indicating that CRA-40 is also highly consistent with the other two reanalysis datasets regarding daily evolution. Our analyses suggest that CRA-40 performs comparably to ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing winter circulation in the Antarctic middle and lower stratosphere.

关键词： CRA-40 ERA-5 MERRA-2 Antarctic stratosphere reanalysis intercomparison

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Influences of Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation on the Southeastern China Heat Waves during Different ENSO Episodes

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Journal of Climate 2025年第7期38卷 1651-1666页

作者： Han, Yuting Yang, Yang Yu, Weidong Feng, Licheng Li, Kuiping National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing China First Institute of Oceanography Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural Resources Qingdao China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen University Zhuhai Campus Zhuhai China Zhuhai China

Heat waves pose severe threats to human health and socioeconomic systems, and accurate short–medium-range forecasting is crucial for implementing effective mitigation strategies. During summer, the heat waves in southeastern China are significantly modulated by the 10–30-day quasi-biweekly oscillations (QBWOs) from the tropical northwestern Pacific. Accompanying the stepwise northwestward evolution of the QBWO dry phase, the heat wave day frequency (HWDF) in South China (SC) and middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MYR) increases by nearly 40% in phases 7–8 and 1–2, respectively. However, the above QBWO–HWDF relationship changes dramatically and exhibits distinction between the MYR and the SC in an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the MYR (SC), the QBWO induces a larger HWDF perturbation during El Niño developing (decaying) summers which is more than twice that during El Niño decaying (developing) summers in phases 1–2 (7–8). This difference regarding El Niño evolution is primarily due to the change of QBWO temperature anomalies in the MYR, while in the SC, it is attributed to changes in both QBWO temperature anomalies and summer mean temperature. Further examination indicates that the QBWO change between El Niño’s developing and decaying summers is likely related to the variation of mean vertical wind shear, which behaves differently between the MYR and the SC. The analysis of the HWDF difference between La Niña’s decaying and developing summers is similar to that between El Niño’s developing and decaying summers. The observed QBWO–HWDF relationship, particularly the varying quantitative statistics across different episodes of an ENSO cycle, establishes a benchmark for future operational heatwave prediction in southeastern China. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Heat wave Intraseasonal variability ENSO

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Intensified Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Simulations Employing a High-Wind Drag Relation over Sea Surface

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Journal of Climate 2025年第10期38卷 2205-2223页

作者： Wei, Wei Lu, Yixiong Yang, Shunan Liu, Yiming Wu, Tongwen Song, Zhenya Qiao, Fangli Li, Yubin Wu, Fanghua Rong, Xinyao Li, Jianglong CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing China National Meteorological Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing China First Institute of Oceanography Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Ministry of Natural Resources Qingdao China School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

Accurate parameterization of momentum fluxes at high winds across the air–sea interface is crucial for realistically simulating the surface wind fields of tropical cyclones (TCs). Climate models often struggle to reproduce observed TC intensities, particularly surface wind speeds. This study evaluates the performance of a revised surface drag scheme with a capping drag coefficient at high wind speeds in global climate models (GCMs). Our results indicate that the revised surface drag scheme significantly improves the representation of TCs in a statistical sense: (i) Not only the mature intensity but also the maximum 10-m wind speeds throughout the TC life cycle are largely enhanced;(ii) biases in the pressure–wind relationship are notably alleviated, exhibiting reasonable agreement with observations;and (iii) other TC statistical features, such as TC number, central sea level pressure, individual lifetime, and intensification rate, show relatively minor sensitivity to the surface drag schemes. The main reason for the superiority of the revised high-wind drag relation is that the lower drag coefficient in high-wind conditions significantly increases the maximum potential intensity (MPI), indicating a higher theoretical limit for TC intensities. These findings are consistent across different model versions and resolutions, highlighting the robustness of the high-wind surface drag parameterization in controlling the simulated surface wind speeds of TCs in GCMs. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

关键词： Tropical cyclone

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