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Targeted sounding observations from geostationary satellite and impacts on high impact weather forecasts

Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第4期68卷 963-976页

作者： Wei HAN Ruoying YIN Jun LI Yongzhu LIU Jincheng WANG Yonghui LI Xiaohao QIN Zhiqing ZHANG Xueshun SHEN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing100081China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Beijing100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing101408China

In monitoring and predicting high-impact weather(HIW)events,targeted atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding observations in sensitive areas are more valuable than conventional *** conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method and the linear singular vector(SV)method can be employed to identify these weather-sensitive areas for targeted *** observations can be conducted by using hyperspectral infrared sounders onboard geostationary weather *** Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)onboard China's Fengyun(FY)-4geostationary satellite series can provide atmospheric sounding observations with a temporal resolution of up to 15 min over areas prone to active weather *** offers unprecedented opportunities for targeted observations,enabling flexible measurement modes that focus on weather-sensitive ***-temporal-resolution measurements not only reveal the threedimensional(3D)thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere,but also track moisture characteristics to capture the 3D dynamic ***,high-temporal-resolution measurements of clear radiances can enhance atmospheric sounding retrievals(used for HIW situation awareness)and data assimilation(used to improve numerical weather prediction).The four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)system facilitates the utilization of the high-temporal-resolution GIIRS targeted *** this study,we explore the applications of FY-4A and FY-4B GIIRS targeted observations and focus on data assimilation based on the 4DVar system for improving HIW *** typhoon cases are selected for impact ***,we compare CNOP and SV methods for identifying sensitive areas,and use the 4D-Var assimilation system of the Global Assimilation Forecasting System of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-GFS)for real-time data *** results indicate hightemporal-resolution observations positively impact typhoon forecasts,with high

关键词： Targeted observations GIIRS Data assimilation High temporal resolution THORPEX

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Deep Learning-based Bias Correction Method for Seasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall in China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2025年第1期31卷 64-74页

作者： QU An-kang BAO Qing ZHU Tao LUO Zhao-ming State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408 China

Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China plays a crucial role in decision-making,environmental protection,and socio-economic development,while it currently has a low prediction *** developed a deep learning-based seasonal prediction bias correction method for summer rainfall in *** on prediction fields from the flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model finite volume version 2(FGOALS-f2),we optimized the loss function of U-Net,trained with different hyperparameters,and selected the optimum model.U-Net model can extract multi-scale feature information and preserve spatial information,making it suitable for processing meteorological *** this endto-end model,the precipitation distribution can be obtained directly without using the traditional method of data dimensionality reduction(e.g.,Empirical Orthogonal Function),which could maximize the retention of spatio-temporal information of the input *** of the loss function enhances the prediction results and mitigates model *** independent prediction shows a significant skill improvement measured by the anomalous correlation coefficient *** skill has an average value of 0.679 in China(0°–63°N,73°–133°E)and 0.691 in the region of the Chinese mainland,which significantly improves the dynamical prediction skill by 1357%and 4836%.This study suggests that the deep learning(U-Net)-based seasonal prediction bias correction method is a promising approach for improving rainfall prediction of the dynamical model.

关键词： seasonal prediction rainfall statistical-dynamical model deep learning

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The sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon simulation to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling in the FGOALS-f climate system model

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2025年第1期16卷 44-57页

作者： Xin-Yu HE Bian HE Qing BAO Yi-Min LIU Jian-Dong LI Xiao-Cong WANG Xiao-Chen CHEN Guo-Xiong WU National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Straits Severe WeatherChina Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350008China Fujian Climate Center Fuzhou 350008China

The relative importance between horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling on improving Asian summer monsoon(ASM)simulation skill remains *** this study,we investigated the sensitivity of ASM to horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling via simulations using a series of versions of the FGOALS-f *** possible causes of bias are further *** results show that the atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)run of high model resolution(25 km)achieves the highest skill on capturing ASM pattern,while the AMIP run of low model resolution(100 km)appears the lowest *** analysis of the hydrological cycle and monsoon dynamics suggested that the simulation of the vertical moisture transport term was the primary contributor to excessive precipitation over the western *** addition,the excessive release of latent heat and strong ASM circulation are also responsible for the strong precipitation intensity in the AMIP ***,although the air-sea coupled simulation exhibited the higher skill level,the simulated sea surface temperature(SST)exhibited an overall cold *** cold bias partly counteracted excessive moisture transport after air-sea interaction is ***,increasing resolution could be helpful for more accurate simulation of advection,and together with the use of prescribed observed daily SST could play more important roles than only considering air-sea coupling on improving ASM simulations.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon High resolution Air-sea interaction FGOALS-f3 Hydrological cycle

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Accelerated warming of air and soil temperatures: evidence from observations in Fuyang from 1985 to 2024

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Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2025年第6期156卷 1-17页

作者： Dai, Qiudan Wu, Lingyun Jia, Binghao Wang, Lu Zhang, Xia Zhang, Lixia Xie, Zhenghui Zhang, Qingkui Zhang, Sichao State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Fuyang Meteorological Office Fuyang China

This study presents evidence of accelerated warming in both air and soil temperatures in Fuyang from 1985 to 2024, based on observational data. Our findings reveal a consistent upward trend in air temperature over the past four decades, in line with the global mean air temperature increase. Remarkably, the surface soil temperature has shown a more pronounced rise, with a warming rate of 0.53 °C per decade, which surpasses the warming rate of the air temperature (0.35 °C per decade), and the warming rate diminishes with increasing soil depth. March emerges as the month with the most significant temperature increase, exhibiting a rise of over 1 °C per decade in both air and soil temperatures. Furthermore, a clear divergence in warming trends is observed between the first and most recent two decades: the warming rates in the latter period are substantially higher. Daytime, nighttime, and compound day–night heatwaves exhibited modest, non-significant decadal increases of 1.56, 3.21, and 0.93 days from 1985 to 2004, but surged significantly by 12.36, 12.92, and 9.91 days between 2005 and ***, 2024 has set a new benchmark as the hottest year in four decades, shattering numerous records for both air and soil temperatures. These findings contribute critical insights into the broader context of climate change, offering significant scientific support for research on its effects on agricultural productivity, ecological systems, and human health.

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Performance of CRA-40 reanalysis in representing the Antarctic winter stratospheric circulation: a comparison with ERA-5 and MERRA-2

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第2期9卷 452-459页

作者： ZiXu Wang JingGao Hu Jing-Jia Luo Jian Rao ZongZe Li LiuChi Yan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This paper evaluates a representation of winter stratospheric circulation in the Antarctic that is based on CRA-40, a 40-year global reanalysis dataset released by the China Meteorological Administration, and compares it with representations based on two other state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets: the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA-5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2(MERRA-2). In terms of climatology, we find that CRA-40 portrays a stronger and colder polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere than ERA-5, but a weaker and warmer one than MERRA-2. However, disagreement among the three reanalyses is confined mainly to the period before1999, and is largely reduced after that time. On the interannual timescale, portrayals of the intensity and area of the 10-hPa polar vortex are quite consistent among the three reanalyses, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 between each pair of reanalyses. In addition, the central dates of most sudden stratospheric deceleration(SSD) events at 10 hPa in the three reanalyses differ by less than one day, indicating that CRA-40 is also highly consistent with the other two reanalysis datasets regarding daily evolution. Our analyses suggest that CRA-40 performs comparably to ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing winter circulation in the Antarctic middle and lower stratosphere.

关键词： CRA-40 ERA-5 MERRA-2 Antarctic stratosphere reanalysis intercomparison

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Convolutional Graph Neural Network with Novel Loss Strategies for Daily Temperature and Precipitation Statistical Downscaling over South China

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2025年第1期42卷 232-247页

作者： Wenjie YAN Shengjun LIU Yulin ZOU Xinru LIU Diyao WEN Yamin HU Dangfu YANG Jiehong XIE Liang ZHAO Central South University Changsha 410083China Hunan Expressway Information Technology Co. Ltd.Changsha 410053China Guangdong Climate Center Guangzhou 510610China Hong Kong Polytechnic University Shenzhen Research Institute Guangdong 518057China Jieyang Meteorological Bureau Jieyang 522031China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Traditional meteorological downscaling methods face limitations due to the complex distribution of meteorological variables,which can lead to unstable forecasting results,especially in extreme *** overcome this issue,we propose a convolutional graph neural network(CGNN)model,which we enhance with multilayer feature fusion and a squeeze-and-excitation ***,we introduce a spatially balanced mean squared error(SBMSE)loss function to address the imbalanced distribution and spatial variability of meteorological *** CGNN is capable of extracting essential spatial features and aggregating them from a global perspective,thereby improving the accuracy of prediction and enhancing the model's generalization *** on the experimental results,CGNN has certain advantages in terms of bias distribution,exhibiting a smaller *** it comes to precipitation,both UNet and AE also demonstrate relatively small *** for temperature,AE and CNNdense perform outstandingly during the *** time correlation coefficients show an improvement of at least 10%at daily and monthly scales for both temperature and ***,the SBMSE loss function displays an advantage over existing loss functions in predicting the98th percentile and identifying areas where extreme events ***,the SBMSE tends to overestimate the distribution of extreme precipitation,which may be due to the theoretical assumptions about the posterior distribution of data that partially limit the effectiveness of the loss *** future work,we will further optimize the SBMSE to improve prediction accuracy.

关键词： statistical downscaling convolutional graph neural network feature processing SBMSE loss function

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Modulation of marine heatwaves by salinity effect in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in 2013-2014

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2025年第1期44卷 17-27页

作者： Xiaokun Wang Hai Zhi Ronghua Zhang Jiaxiang Gao Pengfei Lin School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Henan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center Zhengzhou 450003China School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Marine heatwaves(MHWs)are extreme ocean events characterized by anomalously warm upper-ocean temperatures,posing significant threats to marine *** various factors driving MHWs have been extensively studied,the role of ocean salinity remains poorly *** study investigates the influence of salinity on the major 2013-2014 MHW event in the Northeast Pacific using reanalysis data and climate model *** results show that salinity variabilities are crucial for the development of the MHW ***,a significant negative correlation exists between sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)and sea surface salinity anomalies(SSSAs)during the MHW,with the SSSAs emerging simultaneously with SSTAs in the same *** salinity anomalies(SAs)result in a shallower mixed layer,which suppresses vertical mixing and thus sustains the upper-ocean ***,salinity has a greater impact on mixed layer depth anomalies than *** sensitivity experiments further demonstrate that negative SAs during MHWs amplify positive SSTAs by enhancing upper-ocean stratification,intensifying the ***,our analysis indicates that the SAs are predominantly driven by local freshwater flux anomalies,which are mainly induced by positive precipitation anomalies during the MHW event.

关键词： marine heatwave salinity effect ocean stratification and mixing sea surface temperature Northeast Pacific Ocean

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Cross-season influence of the Arctic oscillation on the Northeast China cold vortex during early summer

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Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2025年第5期156卷 1-17页

作者： Mbigi, Dickson Xiao, Ziniu Zhang, Nan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Department of Physics University of Dar Es Salaam P.O. Box 35063 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania

The Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) exerts substantial impacts on the East Asian climate. While several studies have reported the NCCV formation and characteristics related to the local internal atmospheric variability and extrinsic forcing, limited studies have focused on the roles of Arctic Oscillation (AO) associated with the NCCV variability. This study investigated the modulation of the NCCV in early summer by the preceding winter AO. The results show that the NCCV is positively correlated with the AO, indicating that an enhancing (weakening) preceding winter-AO could lead to increases (decreases) of NCCV activity in early summer. A positive winter-AO leads to a concurrent cold sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic through dynamic and thermodynamic processes. This cooling tendency is essential in sustaining the influence of preceding winter AO in the subsequent early summer. Subsequently, it triggers the wave train from the subpolar North Atlantic via the western Europe-Mediterranean Sea and central China and eventually reaches Northeast China to cause negative height anomalies. This process results in enhancing significant cyclonic anomalies over Northeast China, which creates conducive conditions for the occurrence and maintenance of NCCV activities over there. Moreover, an empirical prediction model was formulated to predict the NCCV variations based on the joint SST and AO indices. The hindcast shows promising prediction skills when AO is incorporated into the model. These results could be useful for decision-makers to take action in dealing with NCCV events in the context of the AO. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2025.

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Redistribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen loading and transport in global rivers via surface water regulation

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Science of the Total Environment 2025年 963卷 178546页

作者： Liu, Shuang Hu, Kaiheng Xie, Zhenghui Wang, Yan You, Yanbin Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu610299 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100029 China The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Nanjing210029 China

Surface water (SW) regulation, including reservoir regulation and surface water use, alters the soil-river hydrological processes and then influences the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) transport from rivers to oceans. However, global response of the DIN transfer to such human activity has not been well investigated. Therefore, in this study, we have taken advantage of a recently-developed land surface model to show the effects of SW regulation on DIN loading and transport in global major rivers. Three simulations were conducted at the global scale over the period of 1991–2000. Results show that, acceleration on riverine N loading caused by the SW regulation was more noticeable. With the reservoir regulation only, removal rates of DIN in most rivers were reduced by 5 %, up to 20 %, while the increase of removal rate in some reaches occurred when the DIN was transferred back to soil through SW withdrawal and use. Influenced by the SW regulation, DIN flow has decreased obviously by 100–1000 t N yr−1. Mean DIN flow was most significantly reduced in the Yellow River basin. Yangtze River, Mississippi River, and Nelson River suffered from the strong effect of such water regulation. The DIN exported to oceans was reduced as well. Mean reduction of 40–50 % occurred for those exported to the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean, while slight effect for the estuaries into the Arctic Ocean. The impact on the DIN exported to the Atlantic Ocean was lasting decreasing from 50 % to 40 %, while the trend of the impact on that exported to the Pacific Ocean was opposite. There was no evident temporal change in the impacts on the DIN transferred to the Arctic Ocean and the Indian Ocean. The findings of this study could provide new insights for the researches on nitrogen change in rivers under the impacts of human water use. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

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Air–sea interactions amplified by tropical cyclones break the South China Sea summer monsoon

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npj Climate and atmospheric Science 2025年第1期8卷 1-8页

作者： Bi, Minghao Xu, Ke Lu, Riyu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Summer monsoon breaks can have far-reaching impacts by triggering abnormal weather both locally and remotely. However, their formation mechanisms remain incompletely understood, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) widely recognized as a primary driver. This study investigates South China Sea monsoon break events and finds that 72.9% originate from the Philippine Sea, associated with ISOs, while the residual 27.1% are locally generated, which have yet to be elucidated previously. Our results suggest that these locally generated events are often preceded by anomalously active tropical cyclones, which amplify in situ air–sea interaction, inducing SST cooling that increases large-scale atmospheric stability, thereby promoting monsoon break establishment. Moreover, differing from ISO-related monsoon breaks that increase precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley, locally generated breaks induce significant warming over South China. The diverse mechanisms and climate impacts of monsoon breaks revealed in this study may provide new insights for further improvement of subseasonal predictions. © The Author(s) 2025.

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