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Air–sea interactions amplified by tropical cyclones break the South China Sea summer monsoon

npj Climate and atmospheric Science 2025年第1期8卷 1-8页

作者： Bi, Minghao Xu, Ke Lu, Riyu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Summer monsoon breaks can have far-reaching impacts by triggering abnormal weather both locally and remotely. However, their formation mechanisms remain incompletely understood, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) widely recognized as a primary driver. This study investigates South China Sea monsoon break events and finds that 72.9% originate from the Philippine Sea, associated with ISOs, while the residual 27.1% are locally generated, which have yet to be elucidated previously. Our results suggest that these locally generated events are often preceded by anomalously active tropical cyclones, which amplify in situ air–sea interaction, inducing SST cooling that increases large-scale atmospheric stability, thereby promoting monsoon break establishment. Moreover, differing from ISO-related monsoon breaks that increase precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley, locally generated breaks induce significant warming over South China. The diverse mechanisms and climate impacts of monsoon breaks revealed in this study may provide new insights for further improvement of subseasonal predictions. © The Author(s) 2025.

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High-impact Extreme Weather and Climate Events in China:Summer 2024 Overview

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2025年第06期 1064-1076页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Ying LI Chan XIAO Wei CHEN Mei MEI Guofu WANG Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Under these conditions, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961,and was hit by a series of high-impact extreme weather and climate events. From 9 June to 2 July, southern China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event that exceeded the well-known 1998 summer precipitation event in both duration and impact scope, resulting in devastating floods in the Yangtze River basin. Subsequently, in early to midJuly, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin suffered from a severe drought–flood abrupt alternation event, heavily affecting Henan and Shandong. Meanwhile, southern China underwent a widespread heatwave event lasting 74 days, ranking as the second most intense since 1961. From late July to the end of August, northern China faced unusually frequent heavy precipitation events, with cumulative precipitation reaching the second highest for the same period since 1961, causing floods in many rivers of northern China. This study provides a timely summary and assessment of the characteristics and impacts of these extreme events. It serves as a reference for climate change research, including mechanism analysis, numerical simulation,and climate event attribution, and also offers valuable insights for improving meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

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Long-term exposure to residential greenness and cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in China

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BMC Public Health 2025年第1期25卷 1-12页

作者： Cao, Xue Tuerdi, Nuerguli Tang, Haosu Zhang, Yujie Wang, Xin Zheng, Congyi Tian, Yixin Yu, Xue Pei, Xuyan Huang, Gang Wang, Zengwu Division of Prevention and Community Health National Center for Cardiovascular Disease National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Disease State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease Fuwai Hospital Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Beijing 102308 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Division of Prevention and Community Health National Center for Cardiovascular Disease National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Disease State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease Fuwai Hospital Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences No. 15 (Lin) Fengcunxili Mentougou District Beijing 102308 China

Background: Influence of residential greenness on CVD risk has garnered increasing attention, however, evidence from large-scale cohort studies in developing nations, such as China, remains sparse. This study aimed to evaluate the association of residential greenness with CVD and mortality, and explore the potential mediating role of modifiable risk factors in the associations. Methods: A total of 22,702 participants aged 35 years and above were enrolled between October 2012 and December 2015. Residential greenness was assessed using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within radii of 300 m, 500 m, and 1000 m from participants' residential address (NDVI_{300 m}, NDVI_{500 m}, and NDVI_{1000 m}). Primary outcomes comprised CVD events and all-cause mortality, with follow-up from 2018 to 2019. Multivariable Cox regression models were employed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), and causal mediation analysis was conducted to assess the role of modifiable risk factors in the observed associations. Results: Residential greenness demonstrated a significant association with the risk of CVD, with HRs per tertile increment of 0.84 (95% confidential interval [CI]: 0.77–0.92) for NDVI_{300 m}, 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79–0.94) for NDVI_{500 m}, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82–0.98) for NDVI_{1000 m,} separately. Compared to areas with the lowest NDVI_{500 m}, the HR for CVD incidence in areas with medium and high NDVI_{500 m} were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.76–1.06), and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62–0.89), respectively. Utilizing a newly proposed two-stage regression method in mediation analysis, approximately 16.18%, 5.34%, 4.04%, and 2.45% of the total effect of NDVI_{500 m} on CVD risk were mediated by high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, physical activity, body mass index, and diabetes mellitus, respectively. Conclusion: This study provides compelling evidence that higher residential greenness is associated with a reduced risk of CVD

关键词： Cardiovascular disease Epidemiology Greenness Mediation analysis

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Model sensitivity of Tibetan plateau surface potential vorticity and the Asian summer monsoon system to Asian orographic perturbation in FGOALS-f2

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Fundamental Research 2025年

作者： He, Bian Liu, Yimin Bao, Qing Wu, Guoxiong Sheng, Chen Zhang, Xiaoqi He, Xinyu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

The thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is important for the regulation of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, the monsoon responses to orographic perturbation simulations show controversial results in previously published literature. One reason for this is that the monsoon responses to orographic forcing differ among climate models. Another reason is that the quantitative changes in the TP thermodynamic forcing remain unknown when the orography is modified. Therefore, the relationship between the TP forcing and the ASM may be different among climate models. In this paper, the surface potential vorticity (SPV) is used to quantify the surface thermodynamic forcing on the TP in the FGOALS-f2 climate model for both the standard atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments with a modified orography, and various aspects of the ASM responses are also examined. Finally, their relationships with TP-SPV changes are quantitively estimated. The results indicate that the intensity of TP-SPV is reduced by nearly 100% in the AMIP runs, while it is reduced by 68% in the CMIP runs when the Asian mountains are removed. Overall, the responses of the monsoon system are more sensitive when air-sea interactions are considered. When the mountains are removed, the precipitation over the southern slope of the TP decreases by 73% and increases by nearly 30% over the tropical Indian Ocean in the CMIP runs. Moreover, the precipitation responses exhibit the largest difference between the AMIP and CMIP runs over the East Asian and Western Pacific regions. The precipitation over the Western Pacific remains almost unchanged when the orography is removed in the AMIP runs but is reduced by 20% in the CMIP runs. We propose that the calculation of SPV over the TP is helpful for understanding the TP orographic forcing and monsoon dynamics in the future. © 2023

关键词： Asian summer monsoon Model sensitivity Potential vorticity Thermal forcing Tibetan Plateau

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Simulations of the 100-hPa South Asian High and Precipitation over East Asia with IPCC Coupled GCMs

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2006年第3期23卷 375-390页

作者：周宁芳俞永强钱永甫 Department of Atmospheric Sciences State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

The South Asian High （SAH） and precipitation over East Asia simulated by 11 coupled GCMs associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change＇s （IPCC） 4th Assessment Report are evaluated. The seasonal behavior of the SAH is presented for each model. Analyses of the results show that all models are able to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the SAH. Locations of the SAH center are also basically reproduced by these models. All models underestimate the intensity and the extension of coverage in summer. The anomalous SAH can be divided into east and west modes according to its longitudinal position in summer on the interannual timescale, and the composite anomalies of the observed precipitation for these two modes tend to have opposite signs over East Asia. However, only several coupled GCMs can simulate the relationship between rainfall and SAH similar to the observed one, which may be associated with the bias in simulation of the subtropical anticyclone over the West Pacific （SAWP） at 500 hPa. In fact, it is found that any coupled GCM, that can reproduce the reasonable summer mean state of SAWP and the southward （northward） withdrawal （extension） for the east （west） mode of SAH as compared to the observed, will also simulate similar rainfall anomaly patterns for the east and west SAH modes over East Asia. Further analysis indicates that the observed variations in the SAH, SAWP and rainfall are closely related to the sea surface temperature （SST） over the equatorial tropical Pacific. Particularly, some models cannot simulate the SAWP extending northward in the west mode and withdrawing southward in the east mode, which may be related to weak major E1 Nifio or La Nifia events. The abilities of the coupled GCMs to simulate the SAWP and ENSO events are associated partly with their ability to reproduce the observed relationship between SAH and the rainfall anomaly over East Asia.

关键词： South Asian High East Asian summer rainfall Coupled GCMs

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Comparisons of GCM cloud cover parameterizations with cloud-resolving model explicit simulations

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第4期58卷 604-614页

作者： WANG XiaoCong LIU YiMin BAO Qing WU GuoXiong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Three kinds of the widely-used cloudiness parameterizations are compared with data produced from the cloud-resolving model(CRM) simulations of the tropical cloud system. The investigated schemes include those based on relative humidity(RH), the semi-empirical scheme using cloud condensate as a predictor, and the statistical scheme based on probability distribution functions(PDFs). Results show that all three schemes are successful in reproducing the timing of cloud generation, except for the RH-based scheme, in which low-level clouds are artificially simulated during cloudless days. In contrast, the low-level clouds are well simulated in the semi-empirical and PDF-based statistical schemes, both of which are close to the CRM explicit simulations. In addition to the Gaussian PDF, two alternative PDFs are also explored to investigate the impact of different PDFs on cloud parameterizations. All the PDF-based parameterizations are found to be inaccurate for high cloud simulations, in either the magnitude or the structure. The primary reason is that the investigated PDFs are symmetrically assumed, yet the skewness factors in deep convective cloud regimes are highly significant, indicating the symmetrical assumption is not well satisfied in those regimes. Results imply the need to seek a skewed PDF in statistical schemes so that it can yield better performance in high cloud simulations.

关键词： cloud cover relative humidity statistical cloud scheme PDFs CRM KWAJEX

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Improving microwave brightness temperature predictions based on Bayesian model averaging ensemble approach

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2016年第11期37卷 1501-1516页

作者： Binghao JIA Zhenghui XIE State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The choices of the parameterizations for each component in a microwave emission model have significant effects on the quality of brightness temperature （Tb） sim- ulation. How to reduce the uncertainty in the Tb simulation is investigated by adopting a statistical post-processing procedure with the Bayesian model averaging （BMA） ensemble approach. The simulations by the community microwave emission model （CMEM） cou- pled with the community land model version 4.5 （CLM4.5） over China's Mainland are con- ducted by the 24 configurations from four vegetation opacity parameterizations （VOPs）, three soil dielectric constant parameterizations （SDCPs）, and two soil roughness param- eterizations （SRPs）. Compared with the simple arithmetical averaging （SAA） method, the BMA reconstructions have a higher spatial correlation coefficient （larger than 0.99） than the C-band satellite observations of the advanced microwave scanning radiometer on the Earth observing system （AMSR-E） at the vertical polarization. Moreover, the BMA product performs the best among the ensemble members for all vegetation classes, with a mean root-mean-square difference （RMSD） of 4 K and a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.64.

关键词： Bayesian model averaging （BMA） microwave brightness temperature com-munity microwave emission model （CMEM） community land model version 4.5 （CLM4.5）

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Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point atmospheric Model of IAP LASG(GAMIL)

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2008年第3期25卷 387-394页

作者：吴志伟李建平 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of Sciences100029

Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude：（1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.

关键词： Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variation ENSO atmospheric general circulation model GAMIL

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Response of Water Cycle Over Drylands to a Warming Future

SSRN

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SSRN 2025年

作者： Liu, Chen-Xi Yu, Hai-Peng Ren, Yu Wei, Yun Zhang, Wen-Xia Zhang, Li-Xia Chen, Si-Yu Guo, Rui-Xia Zhou, Jie Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering Nagqu Plateau Climate and Environment Observation and Research Station of Tibet Autonomous Region Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Lanzhou Regional Climate Center Gansu Meteorological Bureau Lanzhou China Wuhan China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Drylands stand as the most sensitive area to the climate change. Global warming accelerates the water cycle, significantly increasing the frequency of extreme climate hydrological events in drylands. Previous studies mainly discussed the response of a single element of the water cycle to global warming in drylands or focused on single hotspot region, but the synergistic relationship of various hydrological elements in the water cycle is not clear. Here, we investigate the response of the full process of water cycle to global warming over global drylands by utilizing the atmospheric and surface water budget based on multi-models projections (2021-2100) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the water cycle in global drylands will accelerate with the annual precipitation (P) (multi-model median response of 6.71mm/K), evapotranspiration (E) (5.46 mm/K), precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E) (0.05 mm/K) and runoff (R) (2.48 mm/K) showing clear increasing trends. Conversely, the total soil moisture is expected to decrease at a rate of -0.64 mm/K. Warming influences the water cycle differently: regionally, it is expected to strengthen in East Asia’s drylands but weaken in South Africa’s;seasonally, the global drylands will experience an intensified water cycle during the dry season, while slightly weakened in the wet season. However, a significant decrease in soil moisture throughout the year and during the wet season heightened drought risk and lower agricultural yields. By moisture budget decomposition, we further find that the thermodynamic term negatively contributes to P, which is primarily attributed to the enhancement of moisture divergence, while the dynamic term partly offsets the effects of the thermodynamic term. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Soil moisture

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A Case Study on the Role of Water Vapor from Southwest China in Downstream Heavy Rainfall

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2008年第4期25卷 563-576页

作者：潘旸宇如聪李建徐幼平 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Based on the observation data analysis and numerical simulation, the development of an eastwardmoving vortex generated in Southwest China during the period 25 27 June 2003 is studied. The water vapor budget analysis indicates that water vapor in the lower troposphere over Southwest China is transported downstream to the Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys by the southwesterly winds south of the vortex center. A potential vortieity （PV） budget analysis reveals that a positive feedback between latent heat release and low-level positive vortieity plays a vital role in the sudden development and eastward movement of the vortex. numerical simulations are consistent with these results.

关键词： vortex, potential vorticity, heavy rainfall water vapor, numerical simulation

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