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Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on *** Ⅱ:Dominant Timescales in Decadal-Centennial Climate Variability

Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2012年第4期29卷 887-908页

作者： Hengyi WENG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

Part II of this study detects the dominant decadal-centennial timescales in four SST indices up to the 2010/2011 winter and tries to relate them to the observed 11-yr and 88-yr solar activity with the sunspot number up to Solar Cycle 24. To explore plausible solar origins of the observed decadal-centennial timescales in the SSTs and climate variability in general, we design a simple one-dimensional dynamical system forced by an annual cycle modulated by a small-amplitude single- or multi-scale ＂solar activity.＂ Results suggest that nonlinear harmonic and subharmonic resonance of the system to the forcing and period-doubling bifurcations are responsible for the dominant timescales in the system, including the 60-yr timescale that dominates the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The dominant timescales in the forced system depend on the system＇s parameter setting. Scale enhancement among the dominant response timescales may result in dramatic amplifications over a few decades and extreme values of the time series on various timescales. Three possible energy sources for such amplifications and extremes are proposed. Dynamical model results suggest that solar activity may play an important yet not well recognized role in the observed decadal-centennial climate variability. The atmospheric dynamical amplifying mechanism shown in Part I and the nonlinear resonant and bifurcation mechanisms shown in Part II help us to understand the solar source of the multi-scale climate change in the 20th century and the fact that different solar influenced dominant timescales for recurrent climate extremes for a given region or a parameter setting. Part II also indicates that solar influences on climate cannot be linearly compared with non-cyclic or sporadic thermal forcings because they cannot exert their influences on climate in the same way as the sun does.

关键词： sun-climate relationship decadal-centennial climate timescales nonlinear forcing-response res- onant mechanism bifurcation mechanism scale enhancement for extremes

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Sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to sea ice salinity in a coupled global climate model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2010年第6期53卷 911-918页

作者： LIU JiPing state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The impacts of the spatiotemporal variations of sea ice salinity on sea ice and ocean characteristics have not been studied in detail, as the existing climate models neglect or misrepresent this process. To address this issue, this paper formulated a parameterization with more realistic sea ice salinity budget, and examined the sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to the ice salinity variations and associated salt flux into the ocean using a coupled global climate model. Results show that the inclusion of such a parameterization leads to an increase and thickening of sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic and within the ice pack in the Antarctic circumpolar region, and a weakening of the North Atlantic Deep Water and a strengthening of the Antarctic Bottom Water. The atmospheric responses associated with the ice changes were also discussed.

关键词： sea ice salinity coupled global climate model Arctic and Antarctic

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EXPERIMENTS OF SEA ICE SIMULATION

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2005年第6期17卷 686-692页

作者： LIU Xi-ying State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP） Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

As a substitute for the original displaced pole grids, a simple rotated spherical coordinate system was intro duced into the Community Sea Ice Model version 4（CSIM4）, which is a component of the Community Climate System Model（CCSM） of the American National Center of atmospheric Researeh（NCAR）, to deal with the ＂pole problems＂. In the new coordinates, both the geographical North Pole and South Pole lie in the model equator and grid sizes near the polar region are more uniform. With reanalysis dataset of American National Centers for Environment Prediction （NCEP） and Levitus dataset without considering sub-mixed layer heat flux, the model was integrated for 100 years with thermodynamics *** involved only in the former 49 years and both dynamic and thermodynamic processes involved in the left time. Inner consistency of model results was checked with no contradiction found. The results of last 10 years＇ model output were analyzed and it is shown that the simulated sea ice seasonal variation is rational whereas sea ice extent in the Barcnts Sea in winter is larger than that of observation, numerical experiment on influence of sub-mixed layer heat flux was also carried out and it is shown that the sub-mixed layer heat flux can modulate seasonal variation of sea ice greatly. As a model component, the sea ice model with rotated spherical coordinates was coupled with other models （the oceanic general cir culation model is the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model （LICOM） with reduced grid, other models are components of NCAR CCSM2） forming a climate system model and its preliminary results were also given briefly.

关键词： sea ice numerical simulation climate system model

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AREM Simulations of Cloud Features over Eastern China in February 2001

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2005年第2期22卷 260-270页

作者：李昀英宇如聪徐幼平周天军 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Institute of Meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

Based on the simulations of cloud features in February 2001 by the regional numerical weather prediction model-Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM), the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for middle cloud formation over eastern China are studied. Diagnostic analysis partly confirms the previous suggestion that the middle stratiform clouds downstream of the Tibetaan Plateau are maintained by the frictional and blocking effects of the plateau. In addition, it is found that the temperature inversion at plateau height over eastern China generated by the warm air advected from the plateau provides a favorable thermodynamic condition for middle clouds. Both diurnal variations of the mid-level divergence and the inversion over eastern China, which are determined by the atmospheric boundary activity over the Tibetan Plateau, dominate the cloud diurnal cycle. The middle cloud amount decreases and the cloud top falls in the daytime, but reverses at night. The comparison of cloud features between the simulations and the observations also proves that the AREM can well capture the distinctive continental stratiform cloud features downstream of the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： AREM eastern China middle cloud divergence inversion

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What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of E1 Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2008年第4期25卷 577-584页

作者：徐辉段晚锁 State Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

With the Zebiak-Cane （ZC） model, the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）. The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model. By analyzing the behavior of CNOPtype errors, we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak E1 Nifio events in the ZC model, the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP. For the relatively strong E1 Nino events, the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities. Also, our results suggest that the error growth of E1 Nifio in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO. The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth. The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most difficult. A linear singular vector （LSV） approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO, but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model. This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes. CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty. That is to say, the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error. This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation. It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.

关键词： ENSO predictability prediction error optimal perturbation

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Impacts of an Improved Low-Level Cloud Scheme on the Eastern Pacific ITCZ-Cold Tongue Complex

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2005年第4期22卷 559-574页

作者：戴福山宇如聪张学洪俞永强李江龙 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 National Climate Center Beijing 100081

A statistically-based low-level cloud parameterization scheme is introduced, modified, and applied in the Flexible coupled General Circulation Model (FGCM-O). It is found that the low-level cloud scheme makes improved simulations of low-level cloud fractions and net surface shortwave radiation fluxes in the subtropical eastern oceans off western coasts in the model. Accompanying the improvement in the net surface shortwave radiation fluxes, the simulated distribution of SSTs is more reasonably asymmetrical about the equator in the tropical eastern Pacific, which suppresses, to some extent, the development of the double ITCZ in the model. Warm SST biases in the ITCZ north of the equator are more realistically reduced, too. But the equatorial cold tongue is strengthened and extends further westward, which reduces the precipitation rate in the western equatorial Pacific but increases it in the ITCZ north of the equator in the far eastern Pacific. It is demonstrated that the low-level cloud-radiation feedback would enhance the cooperative feedback between the equatorial cold tongue and the ITCZ. Based on surface layer heat budget analyses, it is demonstrated that the reduction of SSTs is attributed to both the thermodynamic cooling process modified by the increase of cloud fractions and the oceanic dynamical cooling processes associated with the strengthened surface wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but it is mainly attributed to oceanic dynamical cooling processes associated with the strengthening of surface wind in the central and western equatorial Pacific.

关键词： parameterization low-level cloud double ITCZ equatorial cold tongue coupled model

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The dry-hot feedback between soil moisture and atmosphere and the accelerated global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 890-891页

作者： Tianjun ZHOU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been increasing due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, resulting in continuous warming of the global climate system and significant drought over a large parts of global land, both have shown a non-linear growth trend in recent decades(Berg et al., 2017;Zhou et al., 2019;IPCC, 2021).

关键词： warming moisture drought

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Influences of Two Convective Schemes on the Radiative Energy Budget in GAMIL1.0

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第3期24卷 318-327页

作者：李立娟王斌 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The Grid-point atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 1.0（GAMIL1.0） is used to investigate the impacts of different convective schemes on the radiative energy *** two convective schemes are Zhang and McFarlance（1995）/Hack（1994）（ZM） and Tiedtke（1989）/Nordeng（1994）（TN）.Two simulations are performed：one with the ZM scheme（EX_ZM） and the other with the TN scheme（EX_TN）.The results indicate that during the convective process,more water vapor consumption and temperature increment are found in the EX_ZM,especially in the lower model layer,its environment is therefore very *** contrast, there is a moister atmosphere in the EX_TN,which favors low cloud formation and large-scale condensation, and hence more low cloud fraction,higher cloud water mixing ratio,and deeper cloud extinction optical depth are simulated,reflecting more solar radiative flux in the EX_*** explains why the TN scheme underestimates the net shortwave radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere and at *** addition, convection influences longwave radiation,surface sensible and latent heat fluxes through changes in cloud emissivity and precipitation.

关键词： convective parameterization cloud fraction cloud optical thickness shortwave cloud radiative forcing

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Progress in the Development and Application of Climate Ocean Models and Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models in China

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2007年第6期24卷 1109-1120页

作者：周天军俞永强刘海龙李薇游小宝周广庆 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.

关键词： climate ocean model ocean-atmosphere coupled model climate modeling

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Impacts of Two Types of El Nio on atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2013年第6期30卷 1732-1742页

作者：孙丹薛峰周天军 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Meteorological Bureau

Based on NCEP/NCAR （National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmo- spheric Research） reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the impacts of two types of E1 Nino on atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） are analyzed. It is shown thaL when a warming event occurs in the equatorial eastern Pacific （EP E1 Nino）, there is a negative sea level pressure （SLP） anomaly in the east- ern Pacific and a positive one in the western Pacific. Besides, there exists a negative anomaly between 40°S and 60°S and a positive anomaly to the south of 60°S. When a warming event in the central Pacific （CP E1 Nino） occurs, there appears a negative SLP anomaly in the central Pacific and a positive SLP anomaly in the eastern and western Pacific, but the SLP anomalies are not so evident in the SH extratropics. In particular, the Pacific-South America （PSA） pattern induced by the CP E1 Nino is located more northwestward, with a weaker anomaly compared with the EP E1 Nino. This difference is directly related with the different position of heating centers associated with the two types of E1 Nino events. Because the SST anomaly associated with CP E1 Nino is located more westward than that associated with EP El Nino, the related heating center tends to move westward and the response of SH atmospheric circulation to the tropical heating changes accordingly, thus exciting a different position of the PSA pattern. It is also noted that the local meridional cell plays a role in the SH high latitudes during EP E1 Nino. The anomalous ascending motion due to the enhancement of convection over the eastern Pacific leads to an enhancement of the local Hadley cell and the meridional cell in the middle and high latitudes, which in turn induces an anomalous descending motion and the related positive anomaly of geopotential height over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea.

关键词： eastern Pacific E1 Nifio central Pacific E1 Nino atmospheric circulation Southern Hemisphere,Pacific-South America pattern

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