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Global, regional, and national burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis, 1990–2021, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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The Lancet Respiratory Medicine 2025年第5期13卷 425-446页

作者： Oh, Jiyeon Kim, Soeun Kim, Min Seo Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abd ElHafeez, Samar Abdelkader, Atef Abdi, Parsa Abdulah, Deldar Morad Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abtahi, Dariush Abualruz, Hasan Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Aburuz, Salahdein Adane, Mesafint Molla Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adeleke, Olumide Thomas Aden, Bashir Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adra, Saryia Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Syed Anees Al Awaidy, Salah Al Bakour, Mohamad Anas Alam, Khurshid Albashtawy, Mohammed Al-Eyadhy, Ayman Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Naji Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Waad Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Al-Jabi, Samah W. Alqahtani, Jaber S. AlQudah, Mohammad Alrawashdeh, Ahmad Alshahrani, Najim Z. Altaany, Zaid Altaf, Awais Al-Tammemi, Alaa B. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alwafi, Hassan Al-Wardat, Mohammad Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed Aly, Hany Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alzoubi, Karem H. Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Ansar, Adnan Anuoluwa, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Iyadunni Adesola Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Areda, Demelash Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Ashraf, Tahira Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Aujayeb, Avinash Ayana, Lemessa Assefa A. Aziz, Shahkaar Azzam, Ahmed Y. Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat Barrow, Amadou Bastan, Mohammad-Mahdi Batra, Kavita Behera, Priyamadhaba Behzadi, Payam Bell, Michelle L. Beneke, Alice A. Berhie, Alemshet Yirga Beyene, Kebede A. Bhattacharjee, Priyadarshini Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bolarinwa, Obasanjo Afolabi Bouaoud, Souad Bustanji, Yasser Butt, Nadeem Shafique Camargos, Paulo Cámera, Luis Alberto Carugno, Andrea Cenderadewi, Muthia Cerrai, Sonia Chakraborty, Sandip Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chandika, Rama Mohan Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chaudhary, Anis Ahmad Cheng, Esther T. W. Chichagi, Fatemeh Chimoriya, Ritesh Ching, Patrick R. Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo Chong, Yuen Yu Chopra, Hitesh Chu, Dinh-Toi Corlateanu, Alexandru Cruz-Martins, Natalia da Silva, Alanna Gomes Dababo, Nour Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen Damiani Department of Medicine Kyung Hee University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea Center for Digital Health Kyung Hee University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard Cambridge MA United States Massachusetts General Hospital Boston MA United States Department of Clinical Governance and Quality Improvement Aleta Wondo General Hospital Aleta Wondo Ethiopia Department of Epidemiology Alexandria University Alexandria Egypt Department of Mathematics and Sciences Ajman University Ajman United Arab Emirates Department of Medicine Memorial University St John's NL Canada Community and Maternity Nursing Unit University of Duhok Duhok Iraq Department of Family and Community Health University of Health and Allied Sciences Ho Ghana Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics Karolinska Institute Stockholm Sweden Department of Anesthesiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Nursing Al Zaytoonah University of Jordan Amman Jordan Department of Clinical Sciences Sharjah United Arab Emirates Department of Biopharmaceutics and Clinical Pharmacy University of Jordan Amman Jordan College of Pharmacy University of Jordan Amman Jordan Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics Al Ain United Arab Emirates College of Medicine and Health Sciences Bahir Dar University Bahir Dar Ethiopia School of Medicine University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Centre for Social Research in Health University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia Department of Family Medicine Bowen University Iwo Nigeria Bowen University Teaching Hospital Ogbomoso Nigeria United Arab Emirates University Al Ain United Arab Emirates Institute of Public Health Walden University Al Ain United Arab Emirates Department of Public Health Padjadjaran University (Universitas Padjadjaran) Bandung Indonesia Clinical Sciences Department Sharjah United Arab Emirates Department

Background: Asthma and atopic dermatitis are common allergic conditions that contribute to substantial health loss, economic burden, and pain across individuals of all ages worldwide. Therefore, as a component of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we present updated estimates of the prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), incidence, and deaths due to asthma and atopic dermatitis and the burden attributable to modifiable risk factors, with forecasted prevalence up to 2050. Methods: Asthma and atopic dermatitis prevalence, incidence, DALYs, and mortality, with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were estimated for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. A systematic review identified data from 389 sources for asthma and 316 for atopic dermatitis, which were further pooled using the Bayesian meta-regression tool. We also described the age-standardised DALY rates of asthma attributable to four modifiable risk factors: high BMI, occupational asthmagens, smoking, and nitrogen dioxide pollution. Furthermore, as a secondary analysis, prevalence was forecasted to 2050 using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), air pollution, and smoking as predictors for asthma and atopic dermatitis. To assess trends in the burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis before (2010–19) and during (2019–21) the COVID-19 pandemic, we compared their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Findings: In 2021, there were an estimated 260 million (95% UI 227–298) individuals with asthma and 129 million (124–134) individuals with atopic dermatitis worldwide. Asthma cases declined from 287 million (250–331) in 1990 to 238 million (209–272) in 2005 but increased to 260 million in 2021. Atopic dermatitis cases consistently rose from 107 million (103–112) in 1990 to 129 million (124–134) in 2021. However, age-standardised prevalence rates decreased—by 40·0% (from 5568·3 per 100 000 to 3340·1 per 100 000) for asthma and 8·3% (from 1885·4

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Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Nature communications 2025年第1期16卷 4235-4235页

作者： Cecilia Anza-Ramirez J. Jaime Miranda Benedetta Armocida Jorge César Correia Harriette Gillian Christine van Spall David Beran Amirali Aali Kalkidan Hassen Abate Semagn Mekonnen Abate Cristiana Abbafati Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari Zahra Aryan Sina Azadnajafabad Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari Mohammad Keykhaei Javad Khanali Sara Momtazmanesh Fateme Montazeri Shayan Rahmani Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi Nazila Rezaei Negar Rezaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam Ali-Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Hedayat Abbastabar Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem Michael Abdelmasseh Juan Sanabria Sherief Abd-Elsalam Ahmed Abdelwahab Gholamreza Abdoli Mohammad Abdollahi Meriem Abdoun Deldar Morad Abdulah Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah Ame Mehadi Abdurehman Getachew Abebe Aidin Abedi Chirag P. Doshi Vida Abedi Hassan Abidi Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Nima Rezaei Lucas Guimarães Abreu Michael R. M. Abrigo Yonas Derso Abtew Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Rabih Halwani Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad Iman M. Talaat Ahmed Abu-Zaid Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi Juan Manuel Acuna Denberu Eshetie Adane Tigist Demssew Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Giovanni Addolorato Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Victor Adekanmbi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi Muhammad Sohail Afzal Saira Afzal Gina Agarwal Prerna Agarwal Pradyumna Agasthi Anurag Agrawal Marcela Agudelo-Botero Adolfo Martinez-valle Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Sohail Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Keivan Ahmadi Sanjay Basu Sepideh Ahmadi Ali Ahmed Shaun Wen Huey Lee Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Jivan Qasim Ahmed Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya Luai A. Ahmed Iffat Elbarazi Syed Mahboob Shah Janardhana P. Aithala Marjan Ajami Budi Aji Hossein Akbarialiabad Yibeltal Akelew Meisam Akhlaghdoust Elham Jamshidi Addis Aklilu Azene Tesfaye Melat Woldemariam Maxwell Ak CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru School of Medicine Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru Sydney School of Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London UK Division of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland Department of Cardiovascular Endocrine-metabolic Diseases and Aging Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy Division of Endocrinology Diabetology Nutrition and Therapeutic Patient Education Department of Medicine Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Department of Medicine and Department of Health Research Evidence and Impact McMaster University Hamilton ON Canada Research Institute of St. Joe’s Hamilton ON Canada Population Health Research Institute Hamilton Canada Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Faculty of Medicine Mashhad University of Medical Sciences Mashhad Iran Department of Nutrition and Dietetics Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia Anesthesiology Department Dilla University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Brigham and Women’s Hospital Harvard University Boston MA USA Students’ Scientific Research Center (SSRC) Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Chapter of Addiction Medicine University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Advanced Diagnostic and Intervent

Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly. © 2025. The Author(s).

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