Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. Thi...
Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was
Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study...
COnstraint-Based Reconstruction and Analysis (COBRA) provides a molecular mechanistic framework for integrative analysis of experimental data and quantitative prediction of physicochemically and biochemically feasible...
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With concerns about climate change growing it could be that green energy will begin to play a major role. Green Energy requires to resolve the optimization problem of electronic distribution, control, and storage with...
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With concerns about climate change growing it could be that green energy will begin to play a major role. Green Energy requires to resolve the optimization problem of electronic distribution, control, and storage with decision rule support. Due to the characteristics of green energy data nature - time dependency and variance, and big data, a novel approach to induct rules is required without re-computing rule sets from the very beginning, when new objects are updated to information system. The proposed approach updates rule sets by partly modifying original rule sets, hence a lot of time are saved, and it is especially useful when extracting rules from big data sets. The rules comparison helps decision maker to explore the marketing and qualified decision for renew energy distribution.
Over the last decades there has been a growing interest in modeling human performance and analyzing human activity and human operator behavior to improve system design. A variety of tools and approaches which are base...
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Over the last decades there has been a growing interest in modeling human performance and analyzing human activity and human operator behavior to improve system design. A variety of tools and approaches which are based on task analysis methods and tools have been proposed. As technology advances and tasks become more demanding, human work changes increasing the need to create new methodologies and tools for task analysis to face the new challenges. The main aim of this research is to develop a new framework and model for simulation of human tasks performed by individuals with varying levels of skills, considering operator workload and human errors. In order to achieve this goal and fill the current gaps, a review of existing task analysis methods and tools is conducted and a model named UTASiMo is proposed. In addition, the Unified Modeling Language is used to describe the conceptual model and illustrate the different constructs and concepts included in the model. Finally, we present a case study and a preliminary simulation model designed in AnyLogic TM .
The global network of gravitational-wave observatories now includes five detectors, namely LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, Virgo, KAGRA, and GEO 600. These detectors collected data during their third observing run, O3,...
We present the results of a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernova SN 2023ixf, which was observed in the galaxy Messier 101 via optical emission on 2023 May 19, during the LIG...
Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IM...
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Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation: The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rh
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