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Monitoring the navy's strategic reserve of ozone-depleting substances

NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 2002年第4期114卷 95-104页

作者： Smith, dE Breslin, dA Toms, GS Norton, P DENNIS E. SMITH PH.D. is currently a statistical consultant for GEO-CENTERS INC. He received a B.A. in Mathematics (magna cum laude)from Wabash College and an M.S. in mathematics an M.S. in statistics and a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Wisconsin. From November 1973 until February 1999 he was president and principal statistician at Desmatics Inc. where he participated in a number of studies involving the application of statistical methods to various technical problems in the Navy's environmental-protection and auxiliary-machinery programs. Dr. Smith was instrumental in developing the statistical procedures underlying the Navy's ODS reserve monitoring plan. DAVID A. BRESLIN P.E. is the director of technical operations for the Naval Surface Warfare Center and chairs the ASNE/SNAME Joint Committee on Environmental Engineering. He received a master of science in aerospace engineering from Virginia Tech a master of engineering administration in industrial and systems engineering from Virginia Tech and a bachelor of engineering in mechanical engineering from Stevens Institute of Technology. From 1993 to 1997 he was the program manager of the Naval Sea Systems Command's CFC and Halon Elimination Program and played a critical role in establishing the Navy's strategic reserve of ozone-depleting substances. Because of his many efforts he received a Stratospheric Ozone Protection Award in 1995 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in recognition of “exceptional contributions to global environmental protection”. GREGORY S. TOMS P.E. is the CFC &Halon Elimination Program Manager for the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA). He received a master of science degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Maryland and a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering from West Virginia University. From 1984 to 1997 he was employed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division Annapolis Detachment (formerly David Taylor Research Center)where he worked on the development of advanced cent

The domestic production of the most powerful ozone-depleting substances (OdSs) has permanently ceased and the abundant supplies of a number of refrigerants, fire-fighting agents, and solvents, once taken for granted, are now a thing of the past. The Navy has adopted a successful strategy for addressing the threat posed by the unavailability of OdSs. That strategy includes relying on a strategic reserve of OdSs. Considering that the strategic reserve will play a critical role in sustained Fleet operations into the middle of the century, it is important to record the history of the reserve and to document lessons learned in order to educate future generations that may face similar challenges. This is the third of three papers that cover all aspects of the Navy's strategic reserve of OdSs. Breslin (1999) documented the history of the Navy's effort to size, establish, and monitor a reserve designed to support Fleet operations until the middle of the century. Breslin, Smith, and Toms (2000) addressed in detail the process used to estimate the required size of the reserve, including the survey method, statistical analyses, and sizing algorithms. This paper discusses the Navy's plan for monitoring the Navy's strategic reserves of OdSs and describes the methods used in the monitoring process. In particular it discusses the underlying assumptions and statistical techniques associated with the Navy's prediction of the expected drawdown of the reserves. A comparison of actual data, collected since the strategic reserves began operations in 1995, with the predicted reserve drawdown, is included in the paper.

关键词： Marine engineering

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A statistical method for estimating the life expectancy of certain shipboard equipment

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 2002年第1期114卷 27-32页

作者： Smith, dE Breslin, dA Toms, GS DENNIS E. SMITH PH.D. is a statistical consultant for Geo-Centers Inc. He received a B.A. in mathe-matics (magna cum laude) from Wabash College and an M.S. in mathematics an M.S. in statistics and a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Wisconsin. From November 1973 until February 1999 he was President and Principal Statistician at Desmatics Inc. where he participated in a number of studies involving the application of statistical methods to various technical problems in the Navy's environmental-protection and auxiliary-machinery programs. Dr. Smith was instrumental in developing the statistical procedures underlying the Navy's ODS reserve monitoring plan. DAVID A. BRESLIN P.E. is the Director of Technical Operations for the Naval Surface Warfare Center and is the chairperson of ASNE's Committee on Environmental Engineering. He received a master of science degree in aerospace engineering from Virginia Tech a master of engineering administration in indus-trial & systems engineering from Virginia Tech and a bachelor of engineering in mechanical engineering from Stevens Institute of Technology. From 1993 to 1997 he was the program manager of the Naval Sea Systems Command's CFC & Halon Elimination Program and played a critical role in establishing the Navy's strategic reserve of ozone-depleting substances. Because of his many efforts he received a Stratospheric Ozone Protection Award in 1995 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in recogni-tion of “exceptional contributions to global environmental protection”. GREGORY S. TOMS P.E. is the CFC & Halon Elimination Program Manager for the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA). He received a master of science degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Maryland and a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering from West Virginia University. From 1984 to 1997 he was employed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division Annapolis Detachment (formerly David Taylor Research Center) where he worked on the development of advanced cent

This paper reviews an inexpensive statistical-sampling methodology that can be used to determine the attrition rates of certain types of shipboard equipment. The methodology relies on surveys that are conducted in conjunction with regularly scheduled ship visits over a period of time and a statistical analysis of the survey results. The statistical technique allows for reasonably accurate estimates to be made of attrition rates. The specific example cited in this paper is related to galley-type refrigeration equipment, such as salad chillers, beverage dispensers, et cetera. In the case of galley-type refrigeration equipment, the Navy needs to know whether the Fleet's inventory of equipment relying on Class I Ozone-depleting Substances (OdSs) will be replaced through natural attrition by the end of fiscal year (FY) 2005, at which time supplies of OdS-based refrigerants will no longer be available for use by ship galleys. This paper outlines the process used to gather data, the analysis of the data, and concludes that the Navy's inventory of galley equipment using Class I OdSs will be replaced through natural attrition by the end of FY05. The methodology reviewed by this paper has wider applications. For various types of shipboard equipment, the methodology can also be used to estimate with reasonable accuracy life expectancies, configurations, conditions, and other items of interest.

关键词： Ship equipment

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Altruism, the prisoner's dilemma, and the components of selection

Altruism, the prisoner's dilemma, and the components of sele...

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2001 IEEE International Conference on systems, Man and Cybernetics

作者： Fletcher, Jeffrey A. Zwick, Martin Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University Portland OR 97207-0751 United States

The n-player prisoner's dilemma (Pd) is a useful model of multilevel selection for altruistic traits. It highlights the non zero-sum interactions necessary for the evolution of altruism as well as the tension between individual and group-level selection. The parameters of the n-player Pd can be directly related to the Price equation as well as to a useful alternative selection decomposition. Finally, the n-player Pd emphasizes the expected equilibrium condition of mutual defection in the absence of higher levels of organization and selection.

关键词： Game theory

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Hierarchical tuning of a fuzzy pitch controller for an unstable airframe

Hierarchical tuning of a fuzzy pitch controller for an unsta...

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Joint 9th IFSA World Congress and 20th NAFIPS International Conference

作者： Shannon, Thaddeus T. Lendaris, George G. Northwest Computational Intell. Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University P.O. Box 827 Portland OR 97207 United States

In this paper we demonstrate the use of Approximate dynamic programming for the design of a pitch control system for an unstable aircraft using a "hierarchical" tuning approach. The aircraft model is based on an experimental "wave rider" design. We consider the full nonlinear longitudinal model and design a pitch controller for low speed, low altitude flight. Given the unstable, nonlinear nature of our plant, key elements of our implementation are the manner in which we provide "learning experience" for our controller, and the way we target different controller parameters at different points in the tuning process.

关键词： Fuzzy control

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dual heuristic programming for fuzzy control

Dual heuristic programming for fuzzy control

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Joint 9th IFSA World Congress and 20th NAFIPS International Conference

作者： Lendaris, George G. Shannon, Thaddeus T. Schultz, Larry J. Hutsell, Steven Rogers, Alec Northwest Computational Intell. Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University P.O. Box 751 Portland OR 97207 United States

Overview material for the Special Session (Tuning Fuzzy Controllers Using Adaptive Critic Based Approximate dynamic programming) is provided. The dual Heuristic programming (dHP) method of Approximate dynamic programming is described and used to the design a fuzzy control system. dHP and related techniques have been developed in the neurocontrol context but can be equally productive when used with fuzzy controllers or neuro-fuzzy hybrids. This technique is demonstrated by designing a temperature controller for a simple water bath system. In this example, we take advantage of the TSK model framework to initialize the tunable parameters of our plant model with reasonable problem specific values.

关键词： Heuristic programming

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Using dHP adaptive critic methods to tune a fuzzy automobile steering controller

Using DHP adaptive critic methods to tune a fuzzy automobile...

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Joint 9th IFSA World Congress and 20th NAFIPS International Conference

作者： Schultz, Larry J. Shannon, Thaddeus T. Lendaris, George G. Electrical Engineering Dept. Northwest Computational Intell. Portland State University P.O. Box 751 Portland OR 97207 United States Systems Science Ph.D Program Northwest Computational Intell. Portland State University P.O. Box 751 Portland OR 97207 United States

The approximate dynamic programming method known as dual Heuristic programming (dHP) is applied to the design of a fuzzy controller for a 4-wheel, 2-axle vehicle. This controller is designed to guide an autonomous aut... 详细信息

关键词： Heuristic programming

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Corporate planning, forecasting, and the long wave

Corporate planning, forecasting, and the long wave

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Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)

作者： H.A. Linstone Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University Portland OR USA

The author describes how his two decades of experience in corporate planning and three in professional journal editing suggest a correlation of technological innovation clusters, corporate planning and technological forecasting with the well-known 50 to 60 year-long wave cycles, i.e., the knowledge consolidation associated with the upswing phase and the creative destruction/knowledge innovation corresponding to the downswing phase of the 4/sup th/ long wave.

关键词： Technological innovation Technology forecasting Technology planning Space technology Evolution (biology) Power generation economics Economic forecasting Military computing Operations research Information technology

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Altruism, the prisoner's dilemma, and the components of selection

Altruism, the prisoner's dilemma, and the components of sele...

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IEEE International Conference on systems, Man and Cybernetics

作者： J.A. Fletcher M. Zwick Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University Portland OR USA

The n-player prisoner's dilemma (Pd) is a useful model of multilevel selection for altruistic traits. It highlights the nonzero-sum interactions necessary for the evolution of altruism as well as the tension between individual and group-level selection. The parameters of the n-player Pd can be directly related to the equation due to Price (1970) as well as to a useful alternative selection decomposition. Finally, the n-player Pd emphasizes the expected equilibrium condition of mutual defection in the absence of higher levels of organization and selection.

关键词： Equations Evolution (biology) Biological systems Organisms Game theory Costs Psychology Ethics Computer simulation Marine animals

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Transforming technology management courses for Web delivery

Transforming technology management courses for Web delivery

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Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)

作者： W. Wakeland Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University Portland OR USA

This paper is a reflection on the author's efforts for the past three years to use Web-based technology to improve a sequence of computer modeling and simulation courses by replacing lectures with self-paced reading materials and labs conducted in computer-equipped classrooms. Students work at their own pace on "labs" that are designed to reinforce key concepts in the readings. Learning is assessed via projects, examinations, and exercises that are written up and submitted by the students. Self-tests are also available to the students. The motivation behind these changes was primarily to improve course quality using active learning principles, and also to improve the efficiency of delivery.

关键词： Technology management Built-in self-test Vehicles Computational modeling Computer simulation Conducting materials Content management Terminology Streaming media

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dual heuristic programming for fuzzy control

Dual heuristic programming for fuzzy control

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Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society - NAFIPS

作者： G.G. Lendaris T.T. Shannon L.J. Schultz S. Hutsell A. Rogers Northwest Computational Intelligence Laboratory and Systems Science Ph.D. Program Portland State University USA

Overview material for the special session (tuning fuzzy controllers using adaptive critic based approximate dynamic programming) is provided. The dual heuristic programming (dHP) method of approximate dynamic programming is described and used to design a fuzzy control system. dHP and related techniques have been developed in the neurocontrol context but can be equally productive when used with fuzzy controllers or neuro-fuzzy hybrids. This technique is demonstrated by designing a temperature controller for a simple water bath system. In this example, we take advantage of the TSK model framework to initialize the tunable parameters of our plant model with reasonable problem specific values.

关键词： Fuzzy control dynamic programming Neural networks programmable control Adaptive control Fuzzy neural networks Neurofeedback Context modeling Fuzzy systems Computational intelligence

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