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International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN)

作者： M.A. Teixeira G. Zaverucha Systems Engineering and Computer Science Program Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil Systems Engineering and Computer Science Program E28093 Graduate Programs in Engineering (COPPE) Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

We present the fuzzy Markov predictor (FMP), a hybrid system that is applied to the task of monthly electric load forecasting. The FMP is a modification we introduce in the hidden Markov model in order to enable it to predict numerical values. The FMP can be seen as an extension of the fuzzy Bayes predictor (FBP) that was modified from the naive Bayes classifier. For verifying the efficiency of the FMP's prediction, we compare it with the FBP, one fuzzy system and two traditional forecasting methods, Box-Jenkins and Winters exponential smoothing.

关键词： Load forecasting Fuzzy systems Hidden Markov models Power engineering and energy Smoothing methods Niobium compounds systems engineering and theory computer science Predictive models Electric variables measurement

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Robust /spl Hscr//sub /spl infin// filtering for uncertain discrete-time state-delayed systems

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IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 2001年第8期49卷 1696-1703页

作者： R.M. Palhares C.E. de Souza P.L. Dias Peres Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil Department of Systems and Control Brazil School of Electrical and Computer Engineering State University of Campinas-UNICAMP Campinas Brazil

This paper addresses the problem of robust /spl Hscr//sub /spl infin// filtering for linear discrete-time systems subject to parameter uncertainties in the system state-space model and with multiple time delays in the state variables. The uncertain parameters are supposed to belong to a given convex bounded polyhedral domain. A methodology is developed to design a stable linear filter that assures asymptotic stability and a prescribed /spl Hscr//sub /spl infin// performance for the filtering error, irrespective of the uncertainty and the time delays. The proposed design is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which has the advantage in that it can be implemented numerically very efficiently.

关键词： Filtering Nonlinear filters Delay effects Uncertainty Noise robustness Uncertain systems Linear matrix inequalities Signal design Riccati equations Context modeling

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Fuzzy Bayes predictor in electric load forecasting

Fuzzy Bayes predictor in electric load forecasting

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International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN)

作者： M.A. Teixeira G. Zaverucha V.N.A.L. da Silva G.F. Ribeiro Systems Engineering and Computer Science Program Graduate Programs in Engineering COPPE Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil Electric Power Research Center CEPEL CEPEL Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)0780370449

We present the fuzzy Bayes predictor (FBP), a hybrid system for the task of monthly electric load forecasting. The FBP is a modification we introduce in the naive Bayes classifier in order to enable it to predict numerical values. We consider three versions of the FBP, each one with a different dependence among the input data: independence, first-order and second-order dependence. For verifying the efficiency of the FBP's prediction, we compare it with two fuzzy systems and two traditional forecasting methods, Box-Jenkins and Winters exponential smoothing.

关键词： Load forecasting Fuzzy systems Power engineering and energy Smoothing methods Testing Niobium compounds systems engineering and theory computer science Predictive models Electric variables measurement

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Robust H/spl infin/ filter design for uncertain linear systems with multiple time-varying state delays

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IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 2001年第3期49卷 569-576页

作者： C.E. de Souza R. Martinez Palhares P.L. Dias Peres Department of Systems and Control Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica Petropolis Brazil Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil School of Electrical and Computer Engineering State University of Campinas-UNICAMP Campinas Brazil

The problem of robust H/spl infin/ filtering for continuous-time uncertain linear systems with multiple time-varying delays in the state variables is investigated. The uncertain parameters are supposed to belong to a given convex bounded polyhedral domain. The aim is to design a stable linear filter assuring asymptotic stability and a prescribed H/spl infin/ performance level for the filtering error system, irrespective of the uncertainties and the time delays. Sufficient conditions for the existence of such a filter are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which can be efficiently solved by means of powerful convex programming tools with global convergence assured. An example illustrates the proposed methodology.

关键词： Robustness Nonlinear filters Linear systems Filtering Time varying systems Asymptotic stability Uncertainty Delay effects Sufficient conditions Linear matrix inequalities

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Robust H∞ control for uncertain state-delayed linear systems with Markovian jumping parameters 6

Robust H∞ control for uncertain state-delayed linear system...

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6th European Control Conference, ECC 2001

作者： Palhares, R.M. De Souza, C.E. Peres, P.L.D. Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais Av. Dom José Gaspar 500 Prédio 4 Belo Horizonte MG30535-610 Brazil Department of Systems and Control Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica - LNCC Av. Getúlio Vargas 333 Petrópolis RJ25651-070 Brazil School of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Campinas CP 6101 Campinas SP13081-970 Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9783952417362

The problem of robust H∞ state-feedback control design for a class of continuous-time linear systems with Markovian jumping parameters and multiple time-varying delays at the states, and subject to uncertain parameters is addressed in this paper. It is assumed that the jumping parameters are available and the uncertain parameter belong to given convex bounded domains (polytope type uncertainty). A delay-independent sufficient condition assuring robust mean square stability and a prescribed level of H∞ disturbance attenuation for the closed-loop system is established in terms of linear matrix inequalities. © 2001 EUCA.

关键词： Linear matrix inequalities

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Robust H ∞ control for uncertain discrete-time state-delayed linear systems with markovian jumping parameters 1

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IFAC Proceedings Volumes 2001年第23期34卷 89-94页

作者： Reinaldo M. Palhares Carlos E. de Souza Pedro L.D. Peres Graduate Program in Electrical EngineeringPontifical Catholic University ofMinas Gerais Av. D. José Gaspar 500 30535-610 Belo Horizonte MG Brazil Department of Systems and Control Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica - LNCCAv. Getúlio Vargas 333 25651-070 Petrópolis RJ Brazil School of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Campinas CP 6101 13081-970 Campinas Sp Brazil

This paper addresses the problem of robust H ∞ state-feedback control design for uncertain discrete-time linear systems with multiple time delays at the states and Markovian jumping parameters. The jumping parameters are assumed to be available and the uncertainties are supposed to belong to convex bounded domains (polytope type uncertainty). Delay-independent sufficient conditions assuring robust stochastic stability and a prescribed H ∞ disturbance attenuation for the closed-loop uncertain discrete-time linear system with multiple time delays and Markovian jumping parameters are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which have the advantage that can be implemented numerically veryefficiently.

关键词： Robust H ∞ control time delay systems Markovian jumping parameters linear matrix inequalities discrete-time systems

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Robust H ∞ Filtering for Linear Continuous-Time Uncertain systems With Multiple Delays: An LMI Approach

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IFAC Proceedings Volumes 2000年第14期33卷 249-254页

作者： Reinaldo M. Palhares Pedro L.D. Peres Carlos E. de Souza Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering Av. Dom José Gaspar 500 Prédio 4 30535-610 Belo Horizonte MG Brazil. School of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Campinas CP 6101 13081-970 Campinas Sp Brazil Department of Systems and Control Laboratório Nacional de Computção Científica - LNCC Av. Getúlio Vargas 333 25651-070 Petrópolis RJ Brazil.

The problem of robust H ∞ filter design for uncertain continuous-time linear systems with multiple time-delayed states is addressed in this paper. The uncertainties are assumed to belong to convex bounded domains (polytope type uncertainty) and the time delays are supposed to be constant. Delay-independent as well as delay-dependent stability conditions assuring robust stability and a prescribed H ∞ disturbance attenuation for the filtering error system are established, in both cases, in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which can be efficiently solved by standard optimization procedures with global convergence assured. Two illustrative examples are analyzed.

关键词： Time-delay systems Delay-dependent stability Delay-independent stability Robust H ∞ filtering Linear matrix inequalities

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Recurrent neural gas in electric load forecasting

Recurrent neural gas in electric load forecasting

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International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN)

作者： M.A. Teixeira G. Zaverucha V.N.A.L. da Silva G.F. Ribeiro Systems Engineering and Computer Science Program-Graduate Programs in Engineering Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil Electric Power Research Center Brazil

We have proposed for the task of hourly electric load forecasting a hybrid neural system combining unsupervised and supervised learning. The system consists of a recurrent neural gas (RNG) network and many Elman neural networks (ENs). RNG is a modification we introduced in the neural gas (NG) network in order to enable it to do clustering using a sequence of input data. For verifying the RNG's performance, many architectures are compared in the learning of global and local models. In a global model only one supervised network is trained and in a local model the training examples are grouped by a clustering algorithm and each one of these groups is sent to different supervised networks. These architectures use different clustering algorithms (NG and RNG) or different supervised networks for prediction (ENs that are trained by backpropagation or backpropagation through time, and feedforward networks).

关键词： Load forecasting Clustering algorithms Neural networks Predictive models Power engineering and energy Backpropagation algorithms Supervised learning systems engineering and theory computer science Recurrent neural networks

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Modelling combat system manning and manpower reduction

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1999年第3期111卷 153-171页

作者： Roos, CH Carl H. Roos:is a Senior Engineer with Logicon-Syscon. A graduate of the University of Pittsburgh with a BSEE degree he has over 35 years experience in functional operational combat system fire control interface and computer program design. As technology changed and the combat system was upgraded Mr. Roos maintained his level of technical expertise by taking graduate-level courses in computer science modelling & structured analysis networking & fiber optics. He has worked in various capacities on the LHD LHA DDG 993 DD 963 LPD 17 LCC LPD 13 CGN 38 CGN 9 CG 26 and the DDG Class Combat Systems. In recent years Mr. Roos has been responsible for managing directing and performing engineering design and analysis efforts associated with Battle Management Organization (BMO) functional analysis and operational analysis. These efforts were used in defining combat system operational requirements shipboard space requirements and integration requirements. His paper “Configuration Management of Digital Programs” was published at the 1972 IEEE Southeastern Conrence.

NAVSEA 03K41 is responsible for generating Combat System Rattle Management Organizations (BMO) and Functional Flow Diagrams (FFD). Several years ago, NAVSEA provided the resources to conduct a functional analysis that would support the development and validation of the BMOs and FFDs. The major obstacle in performing the analysis was obtaining a consensus on how the functional hierarchy was to be structured. The non-optimum organization of the hierarchy was selected;as a result, the functions were difficult to define, find, use, and validate. Recognizing the shortcomings of this effort, research was conducted to evaluate state-of-the-art structured modelling techniques, concepts, and methodologies. Two modelling concepts by James Martin were found to be applicable for the combat system functional analysis: Enterprise Modelling Concept and Functional Decomposition Modelling Concept. The Structure Modelling definitions of Whitten, Bently, and Barlow provided the guidelines for using the Martin concepts. During the ensuing BMO and FFD development efforts, a Ship's Combat System (SCS) Modelling concept evolved and a SCS Model was developed. This paper addresses how the modelling concepts and tools are used in the BMO and FFD development and validation process. Data from the SCS Model provides the basis for defining combat system requirements (e.g., software, data display, database, networking, etc.).

关键词： Naval vessels

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Empirical testing: The prototyper's evaluation mechanism

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1997年第1期109卷 41-46页

作者： Hafner, AN Arnold N. Hafner Ph.D.:is founder and president of Information Systems Research (ISR). He has twenty-five years of experience in systems development and is published in the field of systems development management. He served as corporate research scientist at Systems Exploration Inc. from 1988 to 1991 program director at Computer Science Corporation from 1983 to 1988 director of operations at Republic Management Systems Corporation from 1981 to 1983 and program manager at Computer Science Corporation from 1972 to 1981. A 1962 graduate of the US. Naval Academy he holds a doctoral degree in human behavior and engineering degrees in electronics and communications. He has taught courses on information systems and systems management at most of the colleges in the San Diego area. Dr. Hafner has presented fourteen refereed research papers while publishing sixteen articles and a book A Manager's Guide to Software System Development.

Evaluating complex systems is the subject of this paper, the third in a series investigating prototyping. It provides an interesting and helpful overview of how to evaluate systems prototypes and outlines the iterative stream of developer-user interactions that is replacing older approaches to testing and evaluating new military systems, which promise to reduce the time required to develop and field future military capabilities. Changes to the acquisition process, such as those the paper sketches, will facilitate the nation's rapid transit through its current revolution in military affairs.

关键词： systems analysis

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