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Getting Undergraduates Ready for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Through an Overseas Experiential learning project

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China and the World 2021年第3期4卷

作者： Andrew Min Han Chin Thomas Menkhoff Hans-Dieter Evers Hoong Hui Daniel Gn Kevin Koh Chester Wey Lee Patrick H. M. Loh Linda Low Sebastian Tan Teng Seng Teo Natalie Yap Lee Kong Chian School of Business Singapore Management University (SMU) 81 Victoria Street Singapore 188065 Singapore Andrew Chin Min Han graduated from Tsinghua University in Beijing China with a Tsinghua–MIT Sloan International Master of Business Administration degree under the Singapore Government’s Asian Business Fellowship (ABF) scholarship program. He is the Program Director of Singapore Management University (SMU) Executive Certificate in China Business and of the SMU Internationalisation Series. He teaches as an Adjunct Faculty of Strategy and Organisation at the SMU Lee Kong Chian School of Business since January 2017. He teaches effectively in English and Chinese. With over 23 years of experience in education and publishing industry in Asia Andrew Chin’s multi-sector career has enabled him to experience the full spectrum of the education industry in his roles as the Singapore EDB Officer handling the World-Class University portfolio and the Specialist Information and Publishing Industry portfolio Chief Representative and Country Manager (China) at Thomson Learning (Fortune 500 company) and Co-founder and CEO for an early childhood education business. Andrew was a Business Development Director (Universities) at Sodexo Group (Fortune 500 company) for the Asia-Pacific region. After working 10 years in Beijing China Andrew returned to Singapore in 2012 to work closely with the top leadership at Singapore Management University on the SMU China & East Asia Initiatives. Thomas Menkhoff is the Professor of Organisational Behaviour & Human Resources (Education) at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business Singapore Management University (SMU). Two of his recent publications include: (i) Menkhoff Thomas Ning Kan Siew Evers Hans-Dieter and Chay Yue Wah eds. Living in Smart Cities: Innovation and Sustainability (New Jersey: World Scientific Publishing 2018) and (ii) Chay Yue Wah Menkhoff Thomas and Low Linda eds. China’s Belt and Road Initiative — Understanding the Dynamics of a Global Transfor

In this paper, we explain how an experiential learning course and study tour to Gansu Province (People’s Republic of China) enabled undergraduates at the Singapore Management University (SMU) to acquire 21st-century competencies and higher-order thinking skills by analyzing and evaluating specific aspects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China–Singapore (Chongqing) Connectivity Initiative — New International Land–Sea Trade Corridor (CCI-ILSTC) with emphasis on developing viable Go-To-Market (GTM) strategies aimed at selling Gansu produce in four Southeast Asian markets. We share how the course was designed to support the attainment of key learning goals and discuss how we turned pedagogical aspirations into concrete learning outcomes. We introduce key aspects of the so-called “SMU-XO” project that the students conducted in partnership with an industry partner, Pacific International Lines (PIL), and discuss how the project work helped learners to gain global competency by (i) examining critical issues related to BRI such as multi-modal infrastructure connectivity, (ii) appreciating the local perspectives of project stakeholders in Lanzhou and Shanghai and (iii) successfully interacting with people from different cultures, namely China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

关键词： Experiential learning Singapore China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

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LANCET 2022年第10347期400卷 185-235页

作者： Bryazka, Dana Reitsma, Marissa B. Griswold, Max G. Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abdoli, Amir Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md Abhilash, E. S. Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Acuna, Juan Manuel Addolorato, Giovanni Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adekanmbi, Victor Adhikari, Kishor Adhikari, Sangeet Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afzal, Saira Agegnehu, Wubetu Yimam Aggarwal, Manik Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Araz Ramazan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Ali Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmed, Haroon Rashid, Tarik Ahmed Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Al Hamad, Hanadi Alam, Md Zakiul Alem, Dejene Tsegaye Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alimohamadi, Yousef Alizadeh, Atiyeh Allel, Kasim Alonso, Jordi Alvand, Saba Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Firehiwot Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amiri, Sohrab Ancuceanu, Robert Anderson, Jason A. Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Arabloo, Jalal Arshad, Muhammad Artamonov, Anton A. Aryan, Zahra Asaad, Malke Asemahagn, Mulusew A. Astell-Burt, Thomas Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Atorkey, Prince Atreya, Alok Ausloos, Floriane Ausloos, Marcel Ayano, Getinet Ayanore, Martin Amogre Ayinde, Olatunde O. Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L. Azadnajafabad, Sina Azanaw, Melkalem Mamuye Azangou-Khyavy, Mohammadreza Jafari, Amirhossein Azari Azzam, Ahmed Y. Badiye, Ashish D. Bagheri, Nasser Bagherieh, Sara Bairwa, Mohan Bakkannavar, Shankar M. Bakshi, Ravleen Kaur Balchut-Bilchut, Awraris Hailu Barra, Fabio Barrow, Amadou Baskaran, Pritish Belo, Luis Bennett, Derrick A. Bensenor, Isabela M. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhala, Neeraj Bhalla, Ashish Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. Bintoro, Bagas Suryo Blokhina, Elena A. Elena Bodicha, Belay Boda Abule Boloor, Archith Bosetti, Cristina Braithwaite, Dejana Brenner, Hermann Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Brunoni, Andre R. Butt, Zahid A. Cao, Chao Cao, Yin Cardenas, Rosario Carvalho, Andre F. Carvalho, Marcia Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio Castelpietra Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Cardiol Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA RAND Corp Social & Econ Welf Unit Santa Monica CA USA Jimma Univ Dept Nutr & Dietet Jimma Ethiopia Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Publ Hlth & Infect Dis Rome Italy Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Social Determinants Hlth Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Epidemiol Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Adv Technol Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Pharmacol Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Obes Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Funct Neurosurg Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Hlth & Community Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Student Res Comm Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Med Eth & Law Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr NCDRC Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Inst Pharmaceut Sci TIPS Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Pharm Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Liver & Pancreatobiliary Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Multiple Sclerosis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Pathol Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Psychiat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Students Sci Res Ctr SSRC Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Tehran Heart Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Fac Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sina Trauma & Surg Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Endocrinol & Metab Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Iranian Res Ctr HIV AIDS Iranian Inst Reduct High Risk Behav Tehran Iran Univ Teh

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (7.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable

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Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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LANCET GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY 2022年第9期7卷 796-829页

作者： Sheena, Brittney S. Hiebert, Lindsey Han, Hannah Ippolito, Helen Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abbastabar, Hedayat Abdoli, Amir Ali, Hiwa Abubaker Adane, Mesafint Molla Adegboye, Oyelola A. Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Advani, Shailesh M. Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Meybodi, Mohamad Aghaie Ahadinezhad, Bahman Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Rashid, Tarik Ahmed Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse Aklilu, Addis Akram, Tayyaba Al Hamad, Hanadi Alahdab, Fares Alem, Adugnaw Zeleke Alem, Dejene Tsegaye Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Liaqat Ali, Muhammad Ashar Alimohamadi, Yousef Alipour, Vahid Alkhayyat, Motasem Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Altawalah, Haya Amini, Saeed Amu, Hubert Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Anoushiravani, Amir Ansar, Adnan Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Argaw, Ayele Mamo Argaw, Zeleke Gebru Arshad, Muhammad Artamonov, Anton A. Ashraf, Tahira Atlaw, Daniel Ausloos, Floriane Ausloos, Marcel Azadnajafabad, Sina Azangou-Khyavy, Mohammadreza Jafari, Amirhossein Azari Azarian, Ghasem Bagheri, Sayna Bahadory, Saeed Baig, Atif Amin Banach, Maciej Barati, Nastaran Barrow, Amadou Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Ramirez, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal Berhie, Alemshet Yirga Bhagat, Devidas S. Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. Bijani, Ali Biondi, Antonio Bodicha, Belay Boda Abule Bojia, Hunduma Amensisa Boloor, Archith Bosetti, Cristina Braithwaite, Dejana Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Butt, Zahid A. Camera, Luis Alberto Chakinala, Raja Chandra Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo Charan, Jaykaran Chen, Shu Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chowdhury, Fazle Rabbi Chu, Dinh-Toi Chung, Sheng-Chia Cortesi, Paolo Angelo Cowie, Benjamin C. Culbreth, Garland T. Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi De la Hoz, Fernando Pio Debela, Sisay Abebe Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Evans Sch Publ Policy & Governance Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Family Med Seattle WA USA Task Force Global Hlth Coalit Global Hepatitis Eliminat Decatur GA USA Hiroshima Univ Dept Epidemiol Infect Dis Control & Prevent Hiroshima Japan Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Social Determinants Hlth Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Adv Technol Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Parasitol Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Hlth & Community Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Epidemiol Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Med Eth & Law Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Ophthalm Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Adv Diagnost & Intervent Radiol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Expt Med Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Paediat Ctr Excellence Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Multiple Sclerosis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Pediat Chron Kidney Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Students Sci Res Ctr SSRC Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Endocrinol & Metab Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Fac Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Pharmacol Tehran Iran Jahrom Univ Med Sci Zoonoses Res Ctr Jahrom Iran Univ Human Dev Sulaymaniyah Iraq Univ Human Dev Dept Comp Sci Sulaymaniyah Iraq Univ Human Dev Diplomacy & Publ Relat Dept Sulaymaniyah Iraq Bahir Dar Univ Coll Med & Hlth Sci Bahir Dar Ethiopia Bahir Dar Univ Sch Hlth Sci Bahir Dar Ethiopia Bahir Dar Univ Dept Med Lab Sci Bahir Dar Ethiopia James Cook Univ Publ Hlth

Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-ofsample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4 center dot 1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 center dot 7 to 4 center dot 5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31 center dot 3% (29 center dot 0 to 33 center dot 9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76 center dot 8% (76 center dot 2 to 77 cente

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Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (vol 395, pg 1779, 2020)

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LANCET 2020年第10239期395卷 1762-1762页

作者： Reiner, R. C., Jr. Hay, S., I Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Global Health School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States College of Health and Medical Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Nursing and Midwifery Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Pharmacy Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia School of Public Health Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Haramaya University Harar Ethiopia Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Biology Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Cancer Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Economics and Management Sciences for Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Environmental Health Engineering Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Management and Economics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Microbiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Iran National Institute of Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Metabolomics and

Summary Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood *** We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor *** The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy *** By co-analysing geospatial trends in d

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Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

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NATURE MEDICINE 2020年第5期26卷 750-759页

作者： Kinyoki, Damaris K. Ross, Jennifer M. Lazzar-Atwood, Alice Munro, Sandra B. Schaeffer, Lauren E. Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. Collison, Michael L. Cork, Michael A. Cormier, Natalie Weaver, Nicole Davis Deshpande, Aniruddha Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Earl, Lucas Henry, Nathaniel J. Hollerich, Gillian Johnson, Kimberly B. Kassebaum, Nicholas J. Krohn, Kris J. Letourneau, Ian D. Marczak, Laurie B. Mayala, Benjamin K. Mokdad, Ali H. Mosser, Jonathan F. Murray, Christopher J. L. Naghavi, Mohsen Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron E. Pickering, Brandon V. Pigott, David M. Ray, Sarah E. Sbarra, Alyssa N. Schipp, Megan F. VanderHeide, John Wang, Haidong Wiens, Kirsten E. Afshin, Ashkan Hay, Simon I. Sartorius, Benn Khalil, Ibrahim A. Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Mahdieh M. Hasankhani, Milad Abbasi, Masoumeh Farzam, Hossein Moradi, Masoud Rezaeian, Shahab Abbastabar, Hedayat Abdelalim, Ahmed El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. Shehata, Hatem Samir Abdoli, Amir Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje Deribe, Kebede Abebo, Teshome Abuka Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abolhassani, Hassan Rezaei, Nima Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes Abrigo, Michael R. M. Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Acharya, Dilaram Adabi, Maryam Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Mahasha, Phetole Walter Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith Nnaji, Chukwudi A. Sambala, Evanson Zondani Adham, Davoud Aduroja, Posi Emmanuel Dipeolu, Isaac Oluwafemi Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel John-Akinola, Yetunde O. Oluwasanu, Mojisola Morenike Advani, Shailesh M. Afarideh, Mohsen Esteghamati, Alireza Ghajar, Alireza Heidari, Behnam Sayyah, Mehdi Aghaali, Mohammad Agrawal, Anurag Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde Gesesew, Hailay Abrha Ahmed, Rushdia Das Gupta, Rajat Ajumobi, Olufemi Akal, Chalachew Genet Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen Melese, Addisu Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie Baraki, Adhanom Gebreegzi Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Med Seattle WA USA Tabriz Univ Med Sci Sch Nutr & Food Sci Tabriz Iran Kermanshah Univ Med Sci Kermanshah Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Adv Diagnost & Intervent Radiol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Cairo Univ Dept Neurol Cairo Egypt Jahrom Univ Med Sci Dept Parasitol & Mycol Jahrom Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci TIPS Toxicol & Dis Grp Tehran Iran Isfahan Univ Med Sci Neurosci Res Ctr Esfahan Iran Minist Hlth Dept Publ Hlth Riyadh Saudi Arabia Addis Ababa Univ Sch Publ Hlth Addis Ababa Ethiopia Wachemo Univ Publ Hlth Hosanna Ethiopia Hawassa Univ Coll Med & Hlth Sci Hawassa Ethiopia Madda Walabu Univ Biostat & Hlth Informat Bale Robe Ethiopia Addis Ababa Univ Radiotherapy Ctr Addis Ababa Ethiopia Karolinska Univ Hosp LABMED Huddinge Sweden Univ Tehran Med Sci Res Ctr Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Univ Fed Minas Gerais Dept Pediat Dent Belo Horizonte MG Brazil Philippine Inst Dev Studies Res Dept Quezon City Philippines Ain Shams Univ Cardiovasc Med Abbasiya Egypt IRCB Cotonou Benin Dongguk Univ Dept Prevent Med Gyeongju South Korea Kathmandu Univ Dept Community Med Devdaha Nepal Hamadan Univ Med Sci Hamadan Iran Univ Ibadan Dept Community Med Ibadan Nigeria Univ Coll Hosp Dept Community Med Ibadan Nigeria Olabisi Onabanjo Univ Dept Sociol Ago Iwoye Nigeria Cardiff Univ Sch Med Cardiff S Glam Wales Univ Ibadan Coll Med Ibadan Nigeria Elyon Heart Rehabil Ctr Community Cardiovasc Res Unit Ibadan Nigeria Stellenbosch Univ Dept Global Hlth Stellenbosch South Africa South African Med Res Council Cochrane South Africa Cape Town South Africa Ardabil Univ Med Sci Sch Hlth Ardebil Iran Univ Ibadan Dept Hlth Promot & Educ Ibadan Nigeria NIH Social Behav Res Branch Bldg 10 Bethesda MD 20892 USA Georgetown Univ Canc Prevent & Control Washingt

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1-70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6-70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8-38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8-67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.

关键词： Malnutrition Obesity Risk factors Signs and symptoms

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Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2022年第12期10卷 E1715-E1743页

作者： Lozano, Rafael Haakenstad, Annie Yearwood, Jamal Akeem Fullman, Nancy Bintz, Corinne Bienhoff, Kelly Weaver, Marcia R. Nandakumar, Vishnu Joffe, Jonah N. LeGrand, Kate E. Knight, Megan Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abdoli, Amir Abeldano Zuniga, Roberto Ariel Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Agudelo-Botero, Marcela Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmadi, Ali Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmed, Ali Rashid, Tarik Ahmed Aji, Budi Akande-Sholabi, Wuraola Alam, Khurshid Al Hamad, Hanadi Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Liaqat Alipour, Vahid Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amin, Tarek Tawfik Amu, Hubert Amugsi, Dickson A. Ancuceanu, Robert Andrade, Pedro Prata Anjum, Afifa Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Ariffin, Hany Arulappan, Judie Aryan, Zahra Ashraf, Tahira Atnafu, Desta Debalkie Atreya, Alok Ausloos, Marcel Avila-Burgos, Leticia Ayano, Getinet Ayanore, Martin Amogre Azari, Samad Badiye, Ashish D. Baig, Atif Amin Bairwa, Mohan Bakkannavar, Shankar M. Baliga, Shrikala Banik, Palash Chandra Baernighausen, Till Winfried Barra, Fabio Barrow, Amadou Basu, Sanjay Bayati, Mohsen Belete, Rebuma Bell, Arielle Wilder Bhagat, Devidas S. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhaskar, Sonu Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bibi, Sadia Bijani, Ali Bikbov, Boris Biondi, Antonio Bolarinwa, Obasanjo Afolabi Bonny, Aime Brenner, Hermann Buonsenso, Danilo Burkart, Katrin Busse, Reinhard Butt, Zahid A. Butt, Nadeem Shafique Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Alberto Camera, Luis Cardenas, Rosario Carneiro, Vera L. A. Catala-Lopez, Ferran Chandan, Joht Singh Charan, Jaykaran Chavan, Prachi P. Chen, Simiao Chen, Shu Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chowdhury, Enayet Karim Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Cirillo, Massimo Corso, Barbara Dadras, Omid Dahlawi, Saad M. A. Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dangel, William James Alberto Davila-Cervantes, Claudio Davletov, Kairat Deuba, Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Allergy & Infect Dis Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med Seattle WA 98195 USA Harvard Univ Dept Global Hlth & Populat Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Brigham & Womens Hosp Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Ctr Primary Care Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Dept Global Hlth & Social Med Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Div Cardiol Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Div Gen Internal Med Boston MA 02115 USA Gates Ventures Dept Nutr Seattle WA USA Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Univ Tehran Med Sci Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Natl Inst Hlth Res Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Multiple Sclerosis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Students Sci Res Ctr SSRC Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sina Trauma & Surg Res Ctr Tehran Iran Jahrom Univ Med Sci Zoonoses Res Ctr Jahrom Iran Univ Sierra Sur Postgrad Dept Miahuatlan De Porfirio D Mexico Natl Res Council Mexico Mexico City DF Mexico Olabisi Onabanjo Univ Dept Sociol Ago Iwoye Nigeria Univ Texas Galveston Dept Obstet & Gynecol Galveston TX USA Univ Texas Galveston Off Hlth Policy & Legislat Affairs Galveston TX USA Stellenbosch Univ DSI NRF Ctr Excellence Epidemiol Modelling & Anal Stellenbosch South Africa Stellenbosch Univ Div Epidemiol & Biostat Cape Town South Africa Univ Management & Technol Dept Life Sci Lahore Pakistan King Edward Mem Hosp Dept Community Med Lahore Pakistan Inst Publ Hlth Dept Publ Hlth Lahore Pakistan Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico Ctr Policy Populat & Hlth Res Mexico City DF Mexico Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico Hlth Policy & Populat Res Ctr CIPPS Mexico City DF Mexico U

Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19.6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17.9-21.3), as well as among the young (22.5, 19.9-24.7), working (17.2, 15.2-19.1), and post-working (15.1, 13.2-17.0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30.7 (28.6-33.0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83.4 (82.4-84.3) on average in highSDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40.4-89.0), working (33.8-82.8), and post-working (30.4-79.1) group

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Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Nature communications 2025年第1期16卷 4235-4235页

作者： Cecilia Anza-Ramirez J. Jaime Miranda Benedetta Armocida Jorge César Correia Harriette Gillian Christine Van Spall David Beran Amirali Aali Kalkidan Hassen Abate Semagn Mekonnen Abate Cristiana Abbafati Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari Zahra Aryan Sina Azadnajafabad Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari Mohammad Keykhaei Javad Khanali Sara Momtazmanesh Fateme Montazeri Shayan Rahmani Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi Nazila Rezaei Negar Rezaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam Ali-Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Hedayat Abbastabar Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem Michael Abdelmasseh Juan Sanabria Sherief Abd-Elsalam Ahmed Abdelwahab Gholamreza Abdoli Mohammad Abdollahi Meriem Abdoun Deldar Morad Abdulah Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah Ame Mehadi Abdurehman Getachew Abebe Aidin Abedi Chirag P. Doshi Vida Abedi Hassan Abidi Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Nima Rezaei Lucas Guimarães Abreu Michael R. M. Abrigo Yonas Derso Abtew Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Rabih Halwani Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad Iman M. Talaat Ahmed Abu-Zaid Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi Juan Manuel Acuna Denberu Eshetie Adane Tigist Demssew Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Giovanni Addolorato Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Victor Adekanmbi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi Muhammad Sohail Afzal Saira Afzal Gina Agarwal Prerna Agarwal Pradyumna Agasthi Anurag Agrawal Marcela Agudelo-Botero Adolfo Martinez-Valle Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Sohail Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Keivan Ahmadi Sanjay Basu Sepideh Ahmadi Ali Ahmed Shaun Wen Huey Lee Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Jivan Qasim Ahmed Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya Luai A. Ahmed Iffat Elbarazi Syed Mahboob Shah Janardhana P. Aithala Marjan Ajami Budi Aji Hossein Akbarialiabad Yibeltal Akelew Meisam Akhlaghdoust Elham Jamshidi Addis Aklilu Azene Tesfaye Melat Woldemariam Maxwell Ak CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru School of Medicine Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru Sydney School of Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London UK Division of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland Department of Cardiovascular Endocrine-metabolic Diseases and Aging Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy Division of Endocrinology Diabetology Nutrition and Therapeutic Patient Education Department of Medicine Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Department of Medicine and Department of Health Research Evidence and Impact McMaster University Hamilton ON Canada Research Institute of St. Joe’s Hamilton ON Canada Population Health Research Institute Hamilton Canada Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Faculty of Medicine Mashhad University of Medical Sciences Mashhad Iran Department of Nutrition and Dietetics Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia Anesthesiology Department Dilla University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Brigham and Women’s Hospital Harvard University Boston MA USA Students’ Scientific Research Center (SSRC) Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Chapter of Addiction Medicine University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Advanced Diagnostic and Intervent

Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly. © 2025. The Author(s).

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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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LANCET 2018年第10159期392卷 1684-1735页

作者： Dicker, Daniel Nguyen, Grant Abate, Degu Abate, Lkidan Hassen Abay, Solomon M. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasi, Nooshin Abbastabar, Hcdayat Abd-Allah, Foad Abdela, Jeinal Abdelalim, Ahmed Abdel-Rahman, Omar Abdi, Alireza Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdurahman, Ahmed Abdulahi Abebe, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Zegeye Abebo, Teshome Abuka Aboyans, Victor Abraha, Haftom Niguse Abrham, Aklilu Roba Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Ml Mbessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Areas Acharya, Pawan Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkimmi Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adhena, Beyene Meressa Adhikari, Tara Banal Adib, Mina G. Adou, Arsene Kouablan Adsuar, Jose C. Afaridern, Mohsen Afshin, Ashkan Agarwal, Gina Aggarwal, Rakesh Aghayan, Sargis Agbasi Agrawal, Sutapa Agrawal, Anurag Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Akanda, Ali S. Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil Akibu, Mohammed Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemiju, Tomi Akseer, Nadia Alandab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alebel, Animut Aleman, Alicia V. Alene, Kefyalew Addis Al-Eyadhy, Ayman Ali, Raghib Alijanzadely, Mehran Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine A. Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alsharif, Ubai Altirkawi, Khalid Alvis-Cituman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Erfan Ammar, Walid Amoako, Yaw Ampem Anber, Nahla Hamed Andrei, Catalina Liliana Androudi, Sofia Animut, Megbani Debalkie Anjomshoa, Mina Anlay, Degefaye Zelalem Ansari, Hossein Ansariadi, Ansariadi Ansha, Mustafa Geleto Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Aremu, Olatunde Areri, Habtarnu Abera Arnlov, Johan Aroma, Megha Artaman, Al Aryal, Krishna K. Asadi-Lari, Mohsen Asayesh, Hamid Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Assadi, Reza Ataro, Zerihun Atey, Tesfay Mehan Mehari Athari, Seyyed Sham Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Bioinformat & Med Educ Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Neurol Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Otolaryngol Head & Neck Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Pediat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Div Plast Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Div Pulm Crit Care & Sleep Med Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Social Work Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Seattle WA 98195 USA Haramaya Univ Dept Med Lab Sci Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Dept Pediat Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Nursing & Midwifery Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Pharm Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Publ Hlth Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Harar Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Environm Hlth Sci & Technol Jininta Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Epidemiol Jininta Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Hlth Educ & Behav Sci Jininta Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Populat & Family Hlth Jininta Ethiopia Jimma Univ Mycobacteriol Res Ctr Jininta Ethiopia Univ Addis Ababa Dept Pharmacol & Clin Pharm Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Addis Ababa Sch Allied Hlth Sci Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Addis Ababa Scltool Nursing & Midwifery Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Addis Ababa Sch Publ Hlth Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Addis Ababa Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Biol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Community Based Participatory Research CR PR CtR Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Anat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Community Nutr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Riostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Hlth Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Hlth Management & Econ Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Pharmacol Tehran Iran Univ

Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systetns, sample registration systetns, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated;new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used;statistical methods used in different comp

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Proceedings from the 9th annual conference on the science of dissemination and implementation: Washington, DC, USA. 14-15 December 2016

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Implement Sci 2017年第SUPPL 1期12卷 48-48页

作者： David Chambers Lisa Simpson Gila Neta Ulrica von Thiele Schwarz Antoinette Percy-Laurry Gregory A. Aarons Ross Brownson Amanda Vogel Shannon Wiltsey Stirman Kenneth Sherr Rachel Sturke Wynne E. Norton Allyson Varley Cynthia Vinson Lisa Klesges Suzanne Heurtin-Roberts M. Rashad Massoud Leighann Kimble Arne Beck Claire Neely Jennifer Boggs Carmel Nichols Wen Wan Erin Staab Neda Laiteerapong Nathalie Moise Ravi Shah Susan Essock Margaret Handley Amy Jones Jay Carruthers Karina Davidson Lauren Peccoralo Lloyd Sederer Todd Molfenter Ashley Scudder Sarah Taber-Thomas Kristen Schaffner Amy Herschell Eva Woodward Jeffery Pitcock Mona Ritchie JoAnn Kirchner Julia E. Moore Sobia Khan Shusmita Rashid Jamie Park Melissa Courvoisier Sharon Straus Daniel Blonigen Allison Rodriguez Luisa Manfredi Andrea Nevedal Joel Rosenthal David Smelson Christine Timko Nicole Stadnick Jennifer Regan Miya Barnett Anna Lau Lauren Brookman-Frazee Erick Guerrero Karissa Fenwick Yinfei Kong Gregory Aarons Rebecca Lengnick-Hall Benjamin Henwood Nina Sayer Craig Rosen Robert Orazem Brandy Smith Lindsey Zimmerman David Lounsbury Rachel Kimerling Jodie A. Trafton Steven Lindley Rahul Bhargava Hal Roberts Laura Gibson Gabriel J. Escobar Vincent Liu Benjamin Turk Arona Ragins Patricia Kipnis Ashley Ketterer Gruszkowski Michael W. Kennedy Emily Rentschler Drobek Lior Turgeman Aleksandra Sasha Milicevic Terrence L. Hubert Larissa Myaskovsky Youxu C. Tjader Robert J. Monte Kathryn G. Sapnas Edmond Ramly Diane R Lauver Christie M Bartels Shereef Elnahal Andrea Ippolito Hillary Peabody Carolyn Clancy Randall Cebul Thomas Love Douglas Einstadter Shari Bolen Brook Watts Vera Yakovchenko Angela Park William Lukesh Donald R. Miller David Thornton Mari-Lynn Drainoni Allen L. Gifford Shawna Smith Julia Kyle Mark S Bauer Daniel Eisenberg Celeste Liebrecht Michelle Barbaresso Amy Kilbourne Elyse Park Giselle Perez Jamie Ostroff Sarah Greene Michael Parchman Brian Austin Eric Larson Stefanie Ferreri Chris Shea Megan Smith Kea Turner Jennifer Bacci Kyle Bigham Geoffr Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences National Cancer Institute Rockville MD 20850 USA AcademyHealth Washington DC 20009 USA Department of Learning Informatics Management and Ethics Karolinska Institutet Stockholm 17177 Sweden Department of Psychiatry University of California San Diego San Diego CA 92093 USA George Warren Brown School of Social Work Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO 63130 USA Center for Global Health National Cancer Institute Rockville MD 20850 USA Dissemination and Training Division VA National Center for PTSD Palo Alto CA 94305 USA Department of Global Health University of Washington Seattle WA 98105 USA Center for Global Health Studies Fogarty International Center National Institutes of Health Bethesda MD 20912 USA School of Public Health University of Alabama at Birmingham Birmingham AL 35243 USA School of Public Health University of Memphis Memphis TN 38152 USA USAID Applying Science to Strengthen and Improve Systems (ASSIST) Project Bethesda Maryland 20814 USA Institute for Health Research Kaiser Permanente Denver CO 80231 USA ICSI Institute for Clinical Systems Improvement Bloomington MN 55425 USA Medicine University of Chicago Chicago IL 60637 USA Medicine Columbia University Medical Center New York NY 10032 USA Psychiatry Columbia University New York NY 10032 USA General Internal Medicine Epidemiology and Biostatistics University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA 94110 USA New York State Office of Mental Health New York NY 10001 USA Medicine Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York NY 10029 USA Center for Health Enhancement System Studies University of Wisconsin Madison WI 53706 USA Department of Psychiatry University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA Psychology University at Buffalo Buffalo NY 14260 USA Department of Psychology West Virginia University Morgantown WV 26506 USA MIRECC VA North Little Rock AR 72114 USA QUERI for Team-Based Behavioral Health Centr

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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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LANCET 2018年第10159期392卷 1995-2051页

作者： Murray, Christopher J. L. Callender, Charlton S. K. H. Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Srinivasan, Vinay Abate, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abay, Solomon M. Abbasi, Nooshin Abbastabar, Hedayat Abdela, Jental Abdelalim, Ahmed Abdel-Rahman, Omar Abdi, Alireza Abdoli, Nasrin Abdollahpour, Ibrahim Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abebe, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Zegeye Abebo, Teshome Abuka Abejie, Ayenew Negesse Aboyans, Victor Abraha, Haftom Niguse Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier Abrham, Aklilu Roba Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kolkou Acharya, Pawan Adamu, Abdu A. Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adhena, Beyene Meressa Adhikari, Tara Ballav Adib, Mina C. Adou, Arsene Kouablan Adsuar, Jose C. Afarideh, Mohsen Afshin, Ashkan Agarwal, Gina Agesa, Kareha M. Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi Agrawal, Sutapa Ahmadi, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Sayem Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Akanda, Ali S. Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil Akibu, Mohammed Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akinyemiju, Tomi Akseer, Nadia Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alebel, Animut Aleman, Alicia V. Alene, Kefyalew Addis Al-Eyadhy, Ayman Ali, Raghib Alijanzadeh, Mehran Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Almasi, Ali Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alsharif, Ubai Altirkawi, Khalid Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Ammar, Walid Anber, Nahla Flamed Andrei, Catalina Liliatta Androudi, Sofia Animut, Megbant Delialkie Ansari, Hossein Ansha, Mustafa Geleto Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Aremu, Olatunde Areri, Habtamu Abera Arian, Nicholas Arnlov, Johan Artaman, Al Aryal, Krishna K. Asayesh, Hamid Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Assadi, Reza Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari Afique, Suleman Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan Ausloos, Marcel Avokpaho, Euripide F. C. A. Awasthi, Ashish Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Ayele, Yohanes Ayer, Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Neurol Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Div Plast Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Social Work Seattle WA 98195 USA Haramaya Univ Coll Hlth & Med Sci Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Dept Med Lab Sci Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Dept Pediat Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Nursing & Midwifery Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Pharm Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Publ Hlth Harar Ethiopia Haramaya Univ Sch Publ Hlth Harar Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Environm Hlth Sci & Technol Jimma Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Epidemiol Jimma Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Hlth Educ & Behav Sci Jimma Ethiopia Jimma Univ Dept Populat & Family Hlth Jimma Ethiopia Jimma Univ Mycobacteriol Res Ctr Jimma Ethiopia Addis Ababa Univ Dept Pharmacol & Clin Pharm Addis Ababa Ethiopia Addis Ababa Univ Sch Allied Hlth Sci Addis Ababa Ethiopia Addis Ababa Univ Sch Nursing & Midwifery Addis Ababa Ethiopia Addis Ababa Univ Sch Publ Hlth Addis Ababa Ethiopia Addis Ababa Univ Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Tehran Med Sci Brain & Spinal Cord Injury Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Biol Research Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Community Based Participatory Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Anat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Piostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Hlth Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Hlth Management & Econ Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Pharmacol Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Endocrine Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Endocrinol & Metab Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs;the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs;the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GB

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