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The Prediction of the Epidemic Trend of COVID-19 Using Neural Networks

IFAC-PapersOnLine 2020年第5期53卷 857-862页

作者： Jing Yang z.en shen Xisong Dong Xiuqin Shang Wei Li Gang Xiong J. Yang is with the State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China and also with College of Information Sciences & Technology Beijing University of Chemical Technology Beijing 100029 China. Z. Shen is with the State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China and also with the Intelligent Manufacturing Center Qingdao Academy of Intelligent Industries Qingdao Shandong 266113 China. X. Dong X. Shang and W. Li are with the State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China. G. Xiong is with Beijing Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Systems and Technology Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China and also with the Guangdong Engineering Research Center of 3D Printing and Intelligent Manufacturing Cloud Computing Center Dongguan Guangdong 523808 China.

In this paper, a BP neural network and an LSTM network are applied respectively to the prediction of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China and South Korea. The methods do not require specific theories of modelling and the predicted values can be obtained as long as the conventional parameters are set. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of all the experiments are below 5% and the values of the determinable coefficient R are all larger than 0.9. The experiments show that the models can fit the actual values well and make relatively accurate predictions. As of March 29, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Wuhan is expected to reach 50,068 using BP neural networks and 49,972 using LSTM network, respectively. As of April 13, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in South Korea is expected to reach 8,862 using BP neural networks and 8,716 using LSTM network, respectively. The models of neural networks are effective in predicting the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is meaningful to prevent and control the epidemic.

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