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SSRN 2023年

作者： Matsushita, Raul Brom, Pedro Vila, Roberto Silva, Sergio Da Department of Statistics University of Brasilia Brasilia D.F. 70910-900 Brazil Graduate Program in Statistics University of Brasilia Brasilia D.F. 70910-900 Brazil Graduate Program in Business Administration University of Brasilia Brasilia D.F. 70910-900 Brazil Department of Economics Federal University of Santa Catarina Florianopolis S.C. 88049-970 Brazil Graduate Program in Economics Federal University of Santa Catarina Florianopolis S.C. 88049-970 Brazil Graduate Program in Economics Federal University of Espirito Vitoria E.S. Santo29075-910 Brazil

Determining the truncation length for power law distributions when modeling real-world data is challenging. Only statistical methods are capable of accomplishing this. However, there is a power-law relationship between truncation length and standard deviation. We show how to utilize this formula to model heavy-tailed distributions of the exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar, euro, and British pound. © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

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Moving Mesh Simulations of Pitting corrosion

arXiv

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arXiv 2023年

作者： Sarker, Abu Naser Haynes, Ronald D. Robertson, Michael Scientific Computing Program Memorial University St. John’sNLA1C 5S7 Canada Department of Mathematics and Statistics Memorial University NLA1C 5S7 Canada Department of Physics Acadia University WolfvilleNSB4P 2R6 Canada

Damages due to pitting corrosion of metals cost industry billions of dollars per year and can put human lives at risk. The design and implementation of an adaptive moving mesh method is provided for a moving boundary problem related to pitting corrosion. The adaptive mesh is generated automatically by solving a mesh PDE coupled to the nonlinear potential problem. The moving mesh approach is shown to enable initial mesh generation, provide mesh recovery and is able to smoothly tackle changing pit geometry. Materials with varying crystallography are considered. changing mesh topology due to the merging of pits is also handled. The evolution of the pit shape, the pit depth and the pit width are computed and compared to existing results in the literature. copyright © 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Finite element method

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Retrodicting with the Truncated Lévy Flight

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SSRN 2022年

作者： Matsushita, Raul Da Silva, Sergio Brom, Pedro Nagata, Mateus Department of Statistics University of Brasilia D.F. Brasilia70910-900 Brazil Graduate Program in Statistics University of Brasilia D.F. Brasilia70910-900 Brazil Graduate Program in Business Administration University of Brasilia D.F. Brasilia70910-900 Brazil Department of Economics ITAM D.F. Mexico10700 Mexico Department of Economics Federal University of Santa Catarina S.C. Florianopolis88049-970 Brazil Graduate Program in Economics Federal University of Santa Catarina S.C. Florianopolis88049-970 Brazil Graduate Program in Economics Federal University of Espirito Santo E.S. Vitoria29075-910 Brazil

There is a point in predicting the past (retrodicting) because we lack information about it. To address this issue, we consider a truncated Lévy flight to model data. We build on the finding that there is a power law between truncation length and standard deviation that connects the bounded past and unbounded future. Even if a truncated Lévy flight cannot predict future extreme events, we argue that it can still be used to model the past. Because we avoid the exact form of the probability density function while allowing its distributional moments, with the exception of the mean, to vary over time, our method is applicable to a wide range of symmetric distributions. We illustrate our point by using US dollar prices in 15 different currencies traded on foreign exchange markets. © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Probability density function

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Exploring perceptions of online calculators for identifying community-dwelling older people at risk of dying: A qualitative study

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PEc Innovation 2024年 5卷 100313-100313页

作者： Bennett, carol Beach, Sarah Pacheco, Karen Hsu, Amy T. Tanuseputro, Peter Manuel, Douglas G. Clinical Epidemiology Program Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Ottawa Canada Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Ottawa Canada Department of Family Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa Canada C.T. Lamont Primary Health Care Research Centre Program Bruyère Research Institute Ottawa Canada School of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Ottawa Ottawa Canada Health Analysis Division Statistics Canada Government of Canada Ottawa Canada

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the acceptability, value, and perceived barriers of using electronic risk calculators for predicting and communicating the risk of death in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: One focus group and eight interviews were conducted with 16 participants with experience caring for patients or family members at end of life. A prototype mortality risk tool was used to anchor discussions. Data were analysed using a qualitative content analysis approach. Results: Five themes emerged: acceptability, communication, barriers to use, broadening the circle of care, and tool limitations. Participants found the tool helpful for preparation, planning, and providing care, but disagreed on its community availability. Personalized risk estimates were valued for facilitating early goals of care conversations and normalizing discussions about death. However, concerns were raised about the tool's interpretation for individuals with different language, cultural, or educational backgrounds. conclusions: While electronic risk calculators were found to be acceptable, balancing autonomy with varying preferences for receiving the information and potential need for support is crucial. Innovation: Providing patient-oriented life-expectancy estimates can enhance decisional capacity and facilitate shared decision-making between patients, their families, and healthcare professionals. Further research is needed to explore effective communication of personalized risk tools and additional benefits, harms, and barriers to implementation. © 2024

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Functional connectome-Based Predictive Modeling in Autism

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BIOLOGIcAL PSYcHIATRY 2022年第8期92卷 626-642页

作者： Horien, corey Floris, Dorothea L. Greene, Abigail S. Noble, Stephanie Rolison, Max Tejavibulya, Link O'connor, David McPartland, James c. Scheinost, Dustin chawarska, Katarzyna Lake, Evelyn M. R. constable, R. Todd [a]Interdepartmental Neuroscience Program Yale School of Medicine New Haven Connecticut [b]MD-PhD Program Yale School of Medicine New Haven Connecticut [c]Department of Pediatrics Yale School of Medicine New Haven Connecticut [d]Department of Neurosurgery Yale School of Medicine New Haven Connecticut [e]Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging Yale School of Medicine New Haven Connecticut [f]Department of Biomedical Engineering Yale University New Haven Connecticut [g]Department of Psychology Yale University New Haven Connecticut [h]Department of Statistics and Data Science Yale University New Haven Connecticut [i]Yale Child Study Center New Haven Connecticut [j]Methods of Plasticity Research Department of Psychology University of Zürich Zurich Switzerland [k]Donders Center for Brain Cognition and Behavior Radboud University Nijmegen Nijmegen The Netherlands

Autism is a heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition, and functional magnetic resonance imaging-based studies have helped advance our understanding of its effects on brain network activity. We review how predictive modeling, using measures of functional connectivity and symptoms, has helped reveal key insights into this condition. We discuss how different prediction frameworks can further our understanding of the brain-based features that underlie complex autism symptomatology and consider how predictive models may be used in clinical settings. Throughout, we highlight aspects of study interpretation, such as data decay and sampling biases, that require consideration within the context of this condition. We close by suggesting exciting future directions for predictive modeling in autism.

关键词： clinical translation Development Fingerprinting Individual differences Machine learning Resting-state fMRI

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Wnt genes in colonic polyposis predisposition

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Genes & Diseases 2023年第3期10卷 753-757页

作者： Isabel Quintana Mariona Terradas Pilar Mur Iris B.A.Wte Paske Sophia Peters Isabel Spier Verena Steinke-Lange claudia Maestro David Torrents Montserrat Puiggròs Romina Royo Raul Tonda Genís Parra Davide Piscia Sergi Beltrán Matilde Navarro Virginia Piñol Joan Brunet Noemi Gonzalez-Abuin Gemma Aiza Anna Sommer Yasmijn van Herwaarden Galuh Astuti Elke Holinski-Feder Nicoline Hoogerbrugge Richarda Mde Voer Stefan Aretz Gabriel capellá Laura Valle Hereditary Cancer Program Catalan Institute of OncologyOncobell ProgramIDIBELLHospitalet de LlobregatBarcelona 08908Spain Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Cáncer(CIBERONC) Madrid 28029Spain Department of Human Genetics Radboud Institute for Molecular Life SciencesRadboud University Medical CenterGA Nijmegen 6525the Netherlands Member of SOLVE-RD ERN-GENTURIS Institute of Human Genetics Medical FacultyUniversity of BonnBonn 53127Germany National Center for Hereditary Tumor Syndromes University Hospital BonnBonn 53127Germany Medizinische Klinik Und Poliklinik IV Campus InnenstadtKlinikum Der Universität MünchenMunich 80336Germany MGZ-Medizinisch Genetisches Zentrum Munich 80335Germany Life Sciences Department Barcelona Supercomputing Center(BSC)Barcelona 08034Spain ICREA Barcelona 08010Spain CNAG-CRG Centre for Genomic Regulation(CRG)Barcelona Institute of Science and TechnologyBarcelona 08028Spain Universitat Pompeu Fabra(UPF) Barcelona 08002Spain Department of Genetics Microbiology and StatisticsSchool of BiologyUniversitat de Barcelona(UB)Barcelona 08028Spain Gastroenterology Unit Hospital Universitario de Girona Dr Josep TruetaGirona 17007Spain Catalan Institute of Oncology IDIBGiGirona 17007Spain Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Radboud University Medical CenterGA Nijmegen 6525the Netherlands Department of Human Genetics Radboud University Medical CenterGA Nijmegen 6525the Netherlands

Much of the genetic predisposition to polyposis,and particularly to serrated polyposis(SP),remains *** germline pathogenic variants in RNF43,a tumor suppressor that exerts negative feedback in the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway,have been causally linked to some SP cases(<2%),a disease associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer(cRc).^(1) Most known hereditary cRc and polyposis genes affect DNA repair,BMP/TGF-β,or Wnt signaling,being the latter associated with adenomatous and serrated polyposis phenotypes.2 Based on this observation,we evaluated the presence and role of germline variants in those pathways in unsolved polyposis patients.

关键词： polyposis suppressor colorectal

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Gender-Equity Model for Liver Allocation Using Artificial Intelligence (GEMA-AI) for Waiting List Liver Transplant Prioritization

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clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2025年

作者： Gómez-Orellana, Antonio Manuel Rodríguez-Perálvarez, Manuel Luis Guijo-Rubio, David Gutiérrez, Pedro Antonio Majumdar, Avik Mccaughan, Geoffrey W. Taylor, Rhiannon Tsochatzis, Emmanuel A. Hervás-Martínez, césar Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis University of Córdoba Córdoba Spain Instituto Maimónides de Investigación Biomédica de Córdoba Córdoba Spain Department of Hepatology and Liver Transplantation Hospital Universitario Reina Sofía Instituto Maimónides de Investigación Biomédica de Córdoba Córdoba Spain Department of Medicine University of Córdoba Córdoba Spain Centro de investigación biomédica en red de enfermedades hepáticas y digestivas Madrid Spain Department of Signal Processing and Communications University of Alcalá Alcalá de Henares Spain AW Morrow Gastroenterology and Liver Centre and Australian National Liver Transplant Unit Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Sydney NSW Australia Central Clinical School University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Victorian Liver Transplant Unit Austin Health Melbourne VIC Australia Department of Medicine University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia Liver Injury and Cancer Program Centenary Institute Sydney Australia Department of Statistics and Clinical Studies NHS Blood and Transplant Stoke Gifford United Kingdom Sheila Sherlock Liver Unit and UCL Institute for Liver and Digestive Health Royal Free Hospital London United Kingdom

Background & Aims: We aimed to develop and validate an artificial intelligence score (gender-equity model for liver allocation using artificial intelligence [GEMA-AI]) to predict liver transplantation (LT) waiting list outcomes using the same input variables contained in existing models. Methods: This was a cohort study including adult LT candidates enlisted in the United Kingdom (2010–2020) for model training and internal validation and in Australia (1998–2020) for external validation. GEMA-AI combined international normalized ratio, bilirubin, sodium, and the Royal Free Hospital glomerular filtration rate in an explainable artificial neural network. GEMA-AI was compared with gender-equity model for liver allocation corrected by serum sodium (GEMA-Na), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease corrected by serum sodium for waiting list prioritization. Results: The study included 9320 patients: 5762 in the training cohort, 1920 in the internal validation cohort, and 1638 in the external validation cohort. The prevalence of 90-day mortality or delisting for sickness ranged from 5.3% to 6% across different cohorts. GEMA-AI showed better discrimination than GEMA-Na, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease corrected by serum sodium, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 in the internal and external validation cohorts, with a more pronounced benefit in women and in patients showing at least 1 extreme analytical value. Accounting for identical input variables, the transition from a linear to a nonlinear score (from GEMA-Na to GEMA-AI) resulted in a differential prioritization of 6.4% of patients within the first 90 days and would potentially save 1 in 59 deaths overall, and 1 in 13 deaths among women. Results did not substantially change when ascites was not included in the models. conclusions: The use of explainable machine learning models may be preferred over conventional regression-based models for waiting list prioritization in LT. GE

关键词： Artificial Neural Networks Disparities Explainable Artificial Intelligence Gender Liver Allocation Machine Learning

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Modeling of hypertension risk based on age, body mass index, and psychological factors using local linear estimator

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AIP conference Proceedings 2024年第1期3201卷

作者： Nur chamidah Elly Ana Ahmad Isadika Hendri Susilo Department of Mathematics Faculty of Science and Technology Airlangga University Jalan Mulyorejo Kampus C UNAIR Surabaya 60115 Indonesia 2Statistics Study Program Department of Mathematics Faculty of Science and Technology Airlangga University Jalan Mulyorejo Kampus C UNAIR Surabaya 60115 Indonesia Department of Cardioloy and Vascular Medicine Faculty of Medicine Airlangga University Jalan Mayjen Prof. Dr. Moestopo 6-8 Surabaya 60286 Indonesia

Hypertension, called the silent killer, is a non-infectious disease that is a significant cause of premature death worldwide. Based on WHO, an estimated 46% of adults with hypertension are unaware that they have the condition. Many studies have discussed some factors which can cause hypertension risk such as age, body mass index, and psychology. We need to build a model to estimate hypertension risk based on age, body mass index, and psychological factors. In statistical analysis there are two estimation approaches namely parametric regression and nonparametric regression models. In nonparametric regression, local linear is one of the estimators which has advantages such as it can estimate regression function point-to-point such that it gives results that close to the actual pattern, and no large observations required for assessing the model. In this research, we discuss estimating model of hypertension risk using local linear by including factors of age, body mass index, and psychology. comparison the proposed model approach and parametric logistic regression approach is also given. The results are that classification accuracies of hypertension risk for factors of age, body mass index, and psychology are 97.62% based on local linear, and 46.4% based on parametric logistic regression. This means that for this case the proposed model approach is better and more appropriate for analyzing the hypertension risk than the parametric logistic regression model approach.

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Theoretical background of innovation in services in small and medium-sized enterprises: literature mapping

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Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship 2020年第1期9卷 1-26页

作者： de Oliveira Sousa, Saymon Ricardo da Silva, Wesley Vieira da Veiga, claudimar Pereira Zanini, Roselaine Ruviaro Statistics Department Federal University of Santa Maria – UFSM Building 13 Office 1205 C – CCNE Roraima Ave 1000 Santa Maria RS Brazil Department of General Applied Administration Federal University of Parana – UFPR Lathório Meissner Ave 632 Curitiba PR Brazil Post-Graduation Program of Production Engineering Federal University of Santa Maria UFSM Roraima Ave 1000 Santa Maria 97105-100 RS Brazil

The aim of this study was to map the innovation of services in small and medium-sized enterprises, as reported on the Web of Science and ScOPUS databases, using a structured review, involving 121 papers published between 1946 and 2019. There has been an increase in the number of studies in recent years, covering 23 countries on six continents, with the UK representing 48.78% of the studies. Patterns in the use of methods applied in research were identified, as well as a conceptual structure of the field. The main areas of science were finance, marketing, energy, and green engineering. The study makes an original contribution to the literature, highlighting the interest in the expansion of knowledge among the academic community, in addition to enabling a deeper analysis of the relation between the evaluated constructs. © 2020, The Author(s).

关键词： Innovation in services Literature mapping Small and medium-sized enterprises Systematic literature review

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Periodicity Scoring of Time Series Encodes Dynamical Behavior of the Tumor Suppressor p53 ⁎ ⁎

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IFAc-PapersOnLine 2021年第9期54卷 488-495页

作者： caroline Moosmüller christopher J. Tralie Mahdi Kooshkbaghi Zehor Belkhatir Maryam Pouryahya José Reyes Joseph O. Deasy Allen R. Tannenbaum Ioannis G. Kevrekidis C. Moosmüller and C. Tralie contributed equally to this work Department of Mathematics University of California San Diego La Jolla CA 92093 USA Department of Medical Physics Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center NY USA Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering Johns Hopkins University Baltimore MD 21218 USA Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Ursinus College Collegeville PA USA Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics Princeton University NJ USA School of Engineering and Sustainable Development De Montfort University Leicester UK Cancer Biology and Genetics Program and Computational and Systems Biology Program Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center New York NY 10065 USA and Department of Systems Biology Harvard Medical School Boston MA 02115 USA Departments of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics & Statistics Stony Brook University NY USA

In this paper we analyze the dynamical behavior of the tumor suppressor protein p53, an essential player in the cellular stress response, which prevents a cell from dividing if severe DNA damage is present. When this response system is malfunctioning, e.g. due to mutations in p53, uncontrolled cell proliferation may lead to the development of cancer. Understanding the behavior of p53 is thus crucial to prevent its failing. It has been shown in various experiments that periodicity of the p53 signal is one of the main descriptors of its dynamics, and that its pulsing behavior (regular vs. spontaneous) indicates the level and type of cellular stress. In the present work, we introduce an algorithm to score the local periodicity of a given time series (such as the p53 signal), which we call Detrended Autocorrelation Periodicity Scoring (DAPS). It applies pitch detection (via autocorrelation) on sliding windows of the entire time series to describe the overall periodicity by a distribution of localized pitch scores. We apply DAPS to the p53 time series obtained from single cell experiments and establish a correlation between the periodicity scoring of a cell’s p53 signal and the number of cell division events. In particular, we show that high periodicity scoring of p53 is correlated to a low number of cell divisions and vice versa. We show similar results with a more computationally intensive state-of-the-art periodicity scoring algorithm based on topology known as Sw1PerS. This correlation has two major implications: It demonstrates that periodicity scoring of the p53 signal is a good descriptor for cellular stress, and it connects the high variability of p53 periodicity observed in cell populations to the variability in the number of cell division events.

关键词： Systems biology cellular systems time series modeling bioinformatics computational biology

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