The world we live in is pervaded with uncertainty and imprecision. Is it likely to rain this afternoon? Should I take an umbrella with me? Will I be able to find parking near the campus? Should I go by bus? Such simpl...
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ISBN:
(数字)9783540899242
ISBN:
(纸本)9783540899235;9783642100635
The world we live in is pervaded with uncertainty and imprecision. Is it likely to rain this afternoon? Should I take an umbrella with me? Will I be able to find parking near the campus? Should I go by bus? Such simple questions are a c- mon occurrence in our daily lives. Less simple examples: What is the probability that the price of oil will rise sharply in the near future? Should I buy Chevron stock? What are the chances that a bailout of GM, Ford and Chrysler will not s- ceed? What will be the consequences? Note that the examples in question involve both uncertainty and imprecision. In the real world, this is the norm rather than exception. There is a deep-seated tradition in science of employing probability theory, and only probability theory, to deal with uncertainty and imprecision. The mon- oly of probability theory came to an end when fuzzy logic made its debut. H- ever, this is by no means a widely accepted view. The belief persists, especially within the probability community, that probability theory is all that is needed to deal with uncertainty. To quote a prominent Bayesian, Professor Dennis Lindley, “The only satisfactory description of uncertainty is probability.
Decision makers in managerial and public organizations often encounter de cision problems under conflict or competition, because they select strategies independently or by mutual agreement and therefore their pa...
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ISBN:
(数字)9783790818307
ISBN:
(纸本)9783790813609;9783790824810
Decision makers in managerial and public organizations often encounter de cision problems under conflict or competition, because they select strategies independently or by mutual agreement and therefore their payoffs are then affected by the strategies of the other decision makers. Their interests do not always coincide and are at times even completely opposed. Competition or partial cooperation among decision makers should be considered as an essen tial part of the problem when we deal with the decision making problems in organizations which consist of decision makers with conflicting interests. Game theory has been dealing with such problems and its techniques have been used as powerful analytical tools in the resolution process of the decision problems. The publication of the great work by J. von Neumann and O. Morgen stern in 1944 attracted attention of many people and laid the foundation of game theory. We can see remarkable advances in the field of game theory for analysis of economic situations and a number of books in the field have been published in recent years. The aim of game theory is to specify the behavior of each player so as to optimize the interests of the player. It then recommends a set of solutions as strategies so that the actions chosen by each decision maker (player) lead to an outcome most profitable for himself or her self.
With the daily addition of million documents and new users, there is no doubt that the World Wide Web (WWW or Web shortly) is still expanding its global information infrastructure. Thanks to low-cost wireless technolo...
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ISBN:
(数字)9783540399889
ISBN:
(纸本)9783540201809;9783642057700
With the daily addition of million documents and new users, there is no doubt that the World Wide Web (WWW or Web shortly) is still expanding its global information infrastructure. Thanks to low-cost wireless technology, the Web is no more limited to homes or offices, but it is simply everywhere. The Web is so large and growing so rapidly that the 40 million page "WebBase" repository of Inktomi corresponds to only about 4% of the estimated size of the publicly indexable Web as of January 2000 and there is every reason to believe these numbers will all swell significantly in the next few years. This unrestrainable explosion is not bereft of troubles and drawbacks, especially for inexpert users. Probably the most critical problem is the effectiveness of Web search engines: though the Web is rich in providing numerous services, the primary use of the Internet falls in emails and information retrieval activities. Focusing in this latter, any user has felt the frustrating experience to see as result of a search query overwhelming numbers of pages that satisfy the query but that are irrelevant to the user.
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