Early Warnings for Multistage Transitions in Dynamics on Networks

作     者：MacLaren, Neil G. Kundu, Prosenjit Masuda, Naoki 

作者机构：Department of Mathematics State University of New York BuffaloNY14260-2900 United States Computational and Data-Enabled Science and Engineering Program State University of New York at Buffalo BuffaloNY14260-5030 United States 

出 版 物：《arXiv》 (arXiv)

年 卷 期：2022年

核心收录：

主　　题：Dynamics 

摘      要：Successfully anticipating sudden major changes in complex systems is a practical concern. Such complex systems often form a heterogeneous network, which may show multistage transitions in which some nodes experience a regime shift earlier than others as an environment gradually changes. Here we investigate early warning signals for networked systems undergoing a multistage transition. We found that knowledge of both the ongoing multistage transition and network structure enables us to calculate effective early warning signals for multistage transitions. Furthermore, we found that small subsets of nodes could anticipate transitions as well as or even better than using all the nodes. Even if we fix the network and dynamical system, no single best subset of nodes provides good early warning signals, and a good choice of sentinel nodes depends on the tipping direction and the current stage of the dynamics within a multistage transition, which we systematically characterize. © 2022, CC BY.