Towards sustainable mobility - Transformative scenarios for 2034

作     者：Kiviluoto, Katariina Tapio, Petri Tuominen, Anu Lyytimaki, Jari Ahokas, Ira Silonsaari, Jonne Schwanen, Tim 

作者机构：Univ Turku Finland Futures Res Ctr Rehtorinpellonkatu 3 Turku 20500 Finland VTT Tech Res Ctr Finland Ltd Tekniikantie 21 Otaniemi 02150 Espoo Finland Univ Jyvaskyla Res Ctr Hlth Promot Keskussairaalankatu 4 Jyvaskyla 40600 Finland Finnish Environm Inst Latokartanonkaari 11 Helsinki 00790 Finland Univ Oxford Transport Studies Unit South Parks Rd Oxford OX1 3QY England 

出 版 物：《TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES》 (Transp. Res. Interdiscip. Perspect.)

年 卷 期：2022年第16卷

基　　金：Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland [320399, 320401, 320402, 320403] European Research Council (ERC) Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC) Academy of Finland (AKA) [320402, 320399, 320401, 320403] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA) 

主　　题：Sustainable mobility Walking and cycling Delphi-method Scenarios Disaggregative Delphi Alternative futures 

摘      要：Increasing the share of walking and cycling is one of the building blocks of sustainable mobility transformation. Fundamental changes are needed in society and urban structure to support the integration of walking and cycling into everyday routines. We conducted an online Delphi study with 30 walking and cycling experts during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland in the spring of 2020. The aim was to explore transport experts views on the future and derive scenarios of walking and cycling with the broader context of the urban mobility system. The scenarios were created using a combination of cluster analysis and qualitative content analysis. In addition, a methodological elaboration of the Disaggregative Delphi analysis was introduced, systematising the analysis of qualitative data. The analysis resulted in five scenarios depicting walking and cycling in 2034: 1. Business as Usual Plus, 2. The Demise of Bus-Transport, 3. The Era of Soft Modes, 4. Public Transport Serving All, and 5. Car-dependent Lifestyles Persist. The scenario set can be used as a basis for strategic transport planning and policy as well as a more practical tool for identifying measures for walking and cycling promotion in urban areas.