A spatio-temporal approach to estimate patterns of climate change

作     者：Laurini, M. P. 

作者机构：Univ Sao Paulo Fac Econ Business Adm & Accounting FEA RP BR-14040905 Ribeirao Preto SP Brazil 

出 版 物：《ENVIRONMETRICS》 (环境计量学)

年 卷 期：2019年第30卷第1期

页      面：e2542-e2542页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 08[工学] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 0701[理学-数学] 

基　　金：Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq) [303738/2015-4] Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [2018/04654-9] 

主　　题：climate econometrics Laplace approximations spatio-temporal models structural time series 

摘      要：We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle, and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature series. The method incorporates critical features in the analysis of climatic problems-the importance of spatial heterogeneity, information from a large number of weather stations, and the presence of missing data. The spatial component is based on continuous projections of spatial covariance functions, allowing the modeling of complex patterns of dependence observed in climatic data. We apply this method to study climate changes in the northeast region of Brazil, characterized by a great wealth of climates and large amplitudes of temperatures. The results show the presence of a tendency for temperature increases, indicating changes in the climatic patterns in this region.