Load predictions: vulnerability of micro-grids based on renewable energies due to increasing population and individual demand

作     者：Kuehnel, Meike Ravanbach, Babak Hanke, Benedikt Weigel, Olga Stuermer, Ingo W. McMaster, Alister Maebe, Sander von Maydell, Karsten 

作者机构：DLR Inst Networked Energy Syst Carl von Ossietzky Str D-26129 Oldenburg Germany Deutsch Gesell Int Zusammenarbeit GIZ GmbH Hamburg Germany Lower Saxony Minist Environm Affairs Energy Bldg Hannover Germany Dept Econ Dev Environm Affairs & Tourism Eastern East London South Africa Deutsch Gesell Int Zusammenarbeit GIZ GmbH East London South Africa 

出 版 物：《IET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION》 

年 卷 期：2020年第14卷第8期

页      面：1312-1320页

核心收录：

学科分类：0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 0808[工学-电气工程] 08[工学] 

基　　金：Lower Saxony Ministry for Environmental Affairs, Energy, Building and Climate Protection Department of Economic Development, Environmental Affairs and Tourism of Eastern Cape Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) 

主　　题：socio-economic effects distributed power generation renewable energy sources power grids power generation planning energy conservation load predictions microgrid vulnerability renewable energies small-scale systems rural villages grid connection expected electricity demand load development minigrid Eastern Cape South Africa energy efficiency local socio-cultural conditions power development capacity building planning key performance parameter identification grid supporting qualities open-source basis time 10 0 year 

摘      要：Small-scale systems are vulnerable to changes. The development of solution strategies for changing conditions should, therefore, be considered from the outset in planning. For planners and installers of mini-grids for rural villages without grid connection, first of all, the question of the expected electricity demand arises. So far, this is determined primarily by interviewing the population. However, studies have shown that there are still major differences between the power demand estimated and the real load after electrification. Reinforcing here is the inadequate assessment of load development through immigration and increased prosperity. On the basis of a currently developing mini-grid in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, we could show that a load increase of similar to 60% within 10 years is to be expected. The following possibilities were outlined as possible ways of counteracting the increase in load: (i) communicating with the population, i.e. on energy efficiency to raise awareness and understanding, (ii) early planning of capacity building and identification of key performance parameters to trigger the expansion based on local socio-cultural conditions and grid supporting qualities. An adequate database for the initial electrification and power development should also be established and available on open-source basis for researchers, developers, communities, and installers.