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Association between extreme heat and hospital admissions for cataract patients in Hefei, China

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2020年第36期27卷 45381-45389页

作者： Xie, Jingui Zhu, Yongjian Fan, Yiming Xie, Linbo Xie, Ruijin Huang, Fengming Cao, Liqing Tech Univ Munich Sch Management Bildungscampus 9 D-74076 Heilbronn Germany Univ Sci & Technol China Sch Management 96 Jin Zhai Rd Hefei 230026 Anhui Peoples R China Anhui Hlth Coll 9 Xue Yuan Rd Chizhou 247099 Anhui Peoples R China Univ Sci & Technol China Affiliated Hosp 1 17 Lu Jiang Rd Hefei 230001 Anhui Peoples R China

Cataract is the first cause of blindness and the major cause of visual impairment worldwide. Under conditions of global warming, researchers have begun to give attention to the influence of increasing temperature on cataract patients. Our paper aimed to investigate the association between extreme heat and hospital admissions for cataract in Hefei, China. Based on data from the New Rural Cooperative Medical System and National Meteorological Information Center, we used a generalized additive model and a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the relationship between extreme heat and hospitalizations for cataract, with consideration of cumulative and lagged effects. When current mean temperature was above 28 degrees C, each 1 degrees C rise was associated with a 4% decrease in the number of cataract admissions (RR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94-0.98). The cumulative relative risk over 11 days of lag was the lowest, which indicated that every 1 degrees C increase in mean temperature above 28 degrees C was associated with a 19% decrease in the number of hospital admissions for cataract (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75-0.88). In subgroup analyses, the negative association between extreme heat and hospital admissions for cataract was stronger among patients who were not admitted to provincial-level hospitals. In conclusion, this paper found that extreme heat was negatively associated with cataract hospitalizations in Hefei, providing useful information for hospitals and policymakers.

关键词： Extreme heat Hospital admission Cataract generalized additive model Distributed lag nonlinear model

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The use of support vectors from support vector machines for hydrometeorologic monitoring network analyses

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JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2020年第0期583卷 124522-000页

作者： Asquith, W. H. US Geol Survey 8802 Urbana Lubbock TX 79424 USA

Hydrometeorologic monitoring networks are ubiquitous in contemporary earth-system science. Network stakeholders often inquire about the importance of sites and their locations when discussing funding and monitoring design. Support vector machines (SVMs) can be useful by their assigning each monitoring site as either a support or nonsupport vector. A potentiometric surface was created from synthetic data and 800 random observation locations (sites) as an analog to a groundwater-level network. Using generalized additive models for potentiometric surface prediction, simulations show that a subsample of support vectors from the 800 sites will out perform random samples of sample size equaling the support vector count. Support vector percentages from simulation quantify the recurrence that SVMs assign each site as a support vector, and these percentages in turn measure site importance. An example application of support vector percentages identifies important monitoring sites needed to regionalize the 0.1 annual exceedance probability peak streamflow. The results indicate that 152 of 283 streamgages with support vector percentages equalling 100 percent have not operated since about 2000 and generally have much smaller drainage areas than the greater streamgage network in Texas. The drainage area disparity is an indication of historical imbalance in peak streamflow data acquisition from various stream sizes in Texas.

关键词： Network analyses Support vector machine generalized additive model Groundwater levels Peak streamflow Texas

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Association between triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and three-month outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a second analysis based on a prospective cohort study

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BMC NEUROLOGY 2022年第1期22卷 263-263页

作者： Han, Yong Huang, Zhiqiang Zhou, Jinsong Wang, Zhibin Li, Qiming Hu, Haofei Liu, Dehong Shenzhen Second Peoples Hosp Dept Emergency 3002 Sungang Rd Shenzhen 518035 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Second Peoples Hosp Dept Lab Med 3002 Sungang Rd Shenzhen 518035 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Second Peoples Hosp Dept Nephrol 3002 Sungang Rd Shenzhen 518035 Guangdong Peoples R China

Objective Evidence regarding the relationship between serum triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) ratio and outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients is still mixed. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to explore the link between the TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS. Methods This was a second analysis based on a cohort study. The study population was 1764 patients with AIS collected from January 2010 to December 2016 at a hospital in South Korea. We used a binary logistic regression model to assess the linear association between the TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smooth curve fitting (penalized spline method) was conducted to explore the nonlinear relationship between TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients. Additionally, we compute the inflection point using a recursive algorithm and then build a two-piece binary logistic regression model on both sides of the inflection point. A log-likelihood ratio test was used to determine the most appropriate model describing the association of TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS. Results The incidence rate of unfavorable outcomes was 28.2%, and the median TG/HDL-c ratio was 2.130. After adjusting covariates, the results of the binary logistic regression model suggested that the relationship between the TG/HDL-c ratio and the risk of unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients was not statistically significant. However, there was a nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of the TG/HDL-c ratio was 3.515. On the left side of the inflection point, each 1-unit increase in the TG/HDL-c ratio was associated with a 22.6% lower risk of unfavorable outcomes (OR = 0.774, 95%CI:0.656 to 0.914, p = 0.002). On the right side of the inflection point, the effect size (OR) was 1.195 (95%CI:1.004 to1.423, p = 0.003). Conclusion There is a nonlinear relati

关键词： TG HDL-c Acute ischemic stroke Nonlinear relationship generalized additive model Smooth curve fitting

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Analysis of the meteorological factors affecting the short-term increase in O3 concentrations in nine global cities during COVID-19

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ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION RESEARCH 2022年第9期13卷 101523页

作者： Bi, Zhongsong Ye, Zhixiang He, Chao Li, Yunzhang Sichuan Univ Coll Architecture & Environm Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China Huangshan Univ Sch Architecture & Civil Engn Huangshan 245041 Peoples R China Wuhan Univ Sch Resource & Environm Sci Wuhan 430079 Peoples R China Yangtze Univ Coll Resources & Environm Wuhan 430100 Peoples R China

Surface ozone (O-3) is a major air pollutant around the world. This study investigated O-3 concentrations in nine cities during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown phases. A statistical model, named generalized additive model (GAM), was also developed to assess different meteorological factors, estimate daily O(3 )release during COVID-19 lockdown and determine the relationship between the two. We found that: (1) Daily O-3 significantly increased in all selected cities during the COVID-19 lockdown, presenting relative increases from-5.7% (in Sa tilde o Paulo) to 58.9% (in Guangzhou), with respect to the average value for the same period in the previous five years. (2) In the GAM model, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) ranged from 0.48 (Sao Paulo) to 0.84 (Rome), and it captured 51-85% of daily O-3 variations. (3) Analyzing the expected O3 concen-trations during the lockdown, using GAM fed by meteorological data, showed that O-3 anomalies were domi-nantly controlled by meteorology. (4) The relevance of different meteorological variables depended on the cities. The positive O(3 )anomalies in Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Delhi were mostly associated with low relative humidity and elevated maximum temperature. Low wind speed, elevated maximum temperature, and low relative humidity were the leading meteorological factors for O-3 anomalies in London, Paris, and Rome. The two other cities had different leading factor combinations.

关键词： COVID-19 O-3 Meteorological factor generalized additive model

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U-shaped association between sleep duration and subjective cognitive complaints in Chinese elderly: a cross-sectional study

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BMC PSYCHIATRY 2022年第1期22卷 147-147页

作者： Lin, Li-Hua Xu, Wen-Qi Wang, Shi-Bin Hu, Qing Zhang, Ping Huang, Jia-Hao Ke, Yun-Fei Ding, Kai-Rong Hou, Cai-Lan Jia, Fu-Jun South China Univ Technol Sch Med Guangzhou 510006 Guangdong Peoples R China Guangdong Acad Med Sci Guangdong Prov Peoples Hosp Guangdong Mental Hlth Ctr Guangzhou 510080 Guangdong Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Nursing Guangzhou 510515 Guangdong Peoples R China Yuexiu Dist Ctr Dis Control Guangzhou 510080 Guangdong Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Clin Med 2 Guangzhou 510515 Guangdong Peoples R China

Background Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) may be the early screening signal to distinguish susceptible population with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Subjective cognitive complaints (SCCs) have been proved strongly associated with SCD. This study aimed to explore the association between sleep duration and SCCs in the Chinese elderly. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study involving 688 participants aged 60 years and older in Guangdong Province, China. SCCs were assessed by the Subjective Cognitive Decline questionnaire 9 (SCD-Q9), which contained 9 items with two dimensions, including the overall memory function and time comparison (OMTC) and daily activity ability (DAA). Restricted cubic splines and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to fit the association between sleep duration and SCD-Q9 score. Results There were significant U-shaped associations between sleep duration and overall score of SCD-Q9 (EDF = 3.842, P < 0.001), as well as the OMTC dimension (EDF = 4.471, P < 0.001) in the age- and gender-adjusted GAM. The lowest points on the overall score of SCD-Q9 and OMTC score were observed in those sleeping 8 h per night. After further adjusting for other demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviors, hypertension and diabetes, the U-shaped associations between sleep duration and the overall score of SCD-Q9 (EDF = 3.575, P = 0.004), sleep duration and the OMTC score (EDF = 4.478, P = 0.010) were still found. The daily activity ability (DAA) score was also non-linear associated with sleep duration both in the age- and gender-adjusted GAM (EDF = 2.314, P < 0.001) and further adjusted GAM (EDF = 2.080, P = 0.010). Conclusions Both longer sleep duration (> 8 h) and shorter duration (< 8 h) were linked to worse SCCs. Future studies should explore the protective effect of managing sleep duration on SCD and its progression to dementia.

关键词： U-shaped association Sleep duration Subjective cognitive decline Subjective cognitive complaints generalized additive model

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Association between serum uric acid-to-creatinine ratio and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a cross-sectional study in Chinese non-obese people with a normal range of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol

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BMC GASTROENTEROLOGY 2022年第1期22卷 419-419页

作者： Wang, Xiaoyu Han, Yong Liu, Yufei Hu, Haofei Hechi Peoples Hosp Dept Nephrol Hechi 547000 Guangxi Zhuang Peoples R China Shenzhen Second Peoples Hosp Dept Emergency Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Univ Affiliated Hosp 1 Dept Emergency Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Second Peoples Hosp Dept Neurosurg Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Univ Affiliated Hosp 1 Dept Neurosurg Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Second Peoples Hosp Dept Nephrol 3002 Sungang Rd Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Univ Affiliated Hosp 1 Dept Nephrol Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China Shenzhen Univ Hlth Sci Ctr Shenzhen 518000 Guangdong Peoples R China

Objective Evidence regarding the relationship between serum uric acid-to-creatinine (SUA/Scr) ratio and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Chinese non-obese people is still limited. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to analyze the association between the SUA/Scr ratio and NAFLD. Methods This study was a cross-sectional study that non-selectively and consecutively collected 182,320 non-obese individuals with a normal range of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in a Chinese hospital from January 2010 to December 2014. A binary logistic regression model was used to evaluate the independent association between the SUA/Scr ratio and NAFLD. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smooth curve fitting (penalized spline method) was conducted to explore the exact shape of the curve between them. A series of sensitivity analyses were used to ensure the robustness of the results. Moreover, subgroup analyses were conducted. In addition, the diagnostic value of the SUA/Scr ratio for NAFLD was evaluated based on the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). It was stated that the data had been uploaded to the DATADRYAD website. Results The average participants' age was 40.96 +/- 14.05 years old, and 90,305 (49.5%) were male. The prevalence of NAFLD was 13.7%, and the mean SUA/Scr was 3.62 +/- 0.92. After adjusting covariates, the results showed that SUA/Scr ratio was positively associated with NAFLD (OR = 1.424, 95%CI: 1.396, 1.454). There was also a non-linear relationship between SUA/Scr ratio and NAFLD in participants with normal kidney function, and the inflection point of the SUA/Scr ratio was 4.425. The effect sizes (OR) on the left and right sides of the inflection point were 1.551 (1.504, 1.599) and 1.234 (1.179, 1.291), respectively. And the sensitive analysis demonstrated the robustness of the results. Subgroup analysis showed a stronger association between SUA/Scr ratio and NAFLD in females and the population with age < 50 year

关键词： Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease Serum uric acid-to-creatinine ratio Cross-sectional study Non-linear generalized additive model Binary logistic regression model

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Diet analysis using generalized linear models derived from foraging processes using R package mvtweedie

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ECOLOGY 2022年第5期103卷 e3637-e3637页

作者： Thorson, James T. Arimitsu, Mayumi L. Levi, Taal Roffler, Gretchen H. NOAA AFSC NMFS Seattle WA 98115 USA US Geol Survey Alaska Sci Ctr Juneau AK USA Oregon State Univ Dept Forest Ecosyst & Soc Corvallis OR 97331 USA Alaska Dept Fish & Game Douglas AK USA

Diet analysis integrates a wide variety of visual, chemical, and biological identification of prey. Samples are often treated as compositional data, where each prey is analyzed as a continuous percentage of the total. However, analyzing compositional data results in analytical challenges, for example, highly parameterized models or prior transformation of data. Here, we present a novel approximation involving a Tweedie generalized linear model (GLM). We first review how this approximation emerges from considering predator foraging as a thinned and marked point process (with marks representing prey species and individual prey size). This derivation can motivate future theoretical and applied developments. We then provide a practical tutorial for the Tweedie GLM using new package mvtweedie that extends capabilities of widely used packages in R (mgcv and ggplot2) by transforming output to calculate prey compositions. We demonstrate this approach and software using two examples. Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) provisioning their chicks on a colony in the northern Gulf of Alaska show decadal prey switching among sand lance and prowfish (1980-2000) and then Pacific herring and capelin (2000-2020), while wolves (Canis lupus ligoni) in southeast Alaska forage on mountain goats and marmots in northern uplands and marine mammals in seaward island coastlines.

关键词： diet foraging theory generalized additive model generalized linear model metabarcoding point process Poisson process predation Tweedie distribution

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Leveraging community science data for population assessments during a pandemic

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ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 2022年第3期32卷 E2529页

作者： Howell, Paige E. Devers, Patrick K. Robinson, Orin J. Royle, J. Andrew US Geol Survey Eastern Ecol Sci Ctr Laurel MD 20708 USA US Fish & Wildlife Serv Populat & Habitat Assessment Branch Laurel MD USA Cornell Univ Cornell Lab Ornithol Ithaca NY USA US Fish & Wildlife Serv Div Migratory Bird Management Hadley MA 01035 USA

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted field research programs, making conservation and management decision-making more challenging. However, it may be possible to conduct population assessments using integrated models that combine community science data with existing data from structured surveys. We developed a space-time integrated model to characterize spatial and temporal variability in population distribution. We fit our integrated model to 10 years of eBird (2010-2020) and 9 years of aerial survey (2010-2019) Mottled Duck count data to forecast 2020 population size along the western Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Estimates of Mottled Duck abundance were similar in magnitude to estimates calculated using previous methods but were more precise and showed evidence of a declining population. The spatial distribution for Mottled Ducks each year was characterized by several concentrations of relatively high abundance, although the location of these abundance "hotspots" varied over time. Expected abundance was higher for areas with a higher proportion of area covered by marsh habitat. By leveraging large-scale community science data, we were able to conduct a population assessment despite the disruption in structured surveys caused by the pandemic. As participation in community science platforms continues to increase, we anticipate modeling frameworks, like the integrated model we developed here, will become increasingly useful for informing conservation and management decision-making.

关键词： eBird generalized additive model integrated model Louisiana Mottled Ducks Texas western Gulf Coast

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Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for generalized additive model Components

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SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF STATISTICS 2012年第1期39卷 53-74页

作者： Marra, Giampiero Wood, Simon N. UCL Dept Stat Sci London WC1E 6BT England Univ Bath Dept Math Sci Bath BA2 7AY Avon England

. We study the coverage properties of Bayesian confidence intervals for the smooth component functions of generalized additive models (GAMs) represented using any penalized regression spline approach. The intervals are the usual generalization of the intervals first proposed by Wahba and Silverman in 1983 and 1985, respectively, to the GAM component context. We present simulation evidence showing these intervals have close to nominal across-the-function frequentist coverage probabilities, except when the truth is close to a straight line/plane function. We extend the argument introduced by Nychka in 1988 for univariate smoothing splines to explain these results. The theoretical argument suggests that close to nominal coverage probabilities can be achieved, provided that heavy oversmoothing is avoided, so that the bias is not too large a proportion of the sampling variability. The theoretical results allow us to derive alternative intervals from a purely frequentist point of view, and to explain the impact that the neglect of smoothing parameter variability has on confidence interval performance. They also suggest switching the target of inference for component-wise intervals away from smooth components in the space of the GAM identifiability constraints.

关键词： Bayesian confidence interval generalized additive model penalized regression spline

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Good intentions with adverse outcomes when conservation and pest management guidelines are ignored: A case study in rabbit biocontrol

CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE

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CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022年第4期4卷

作者： Taggart, Patrick L. O'Connor, Tiffany W. Cooke, Brian Read, Andrew J. Kirkland, Peter D. Sawyers, Emma West, Peter Patel, Kandarp Dept Primary Ind NSW Vertebrate Pest Res Unit Queanbeyan NSW Australia Ctr Invas Species Solut Bruce ACT Australia Univ Adelaide Sch Anim & Vet Sci Roseworthy SA Australia Univ New South Wales Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci Sydney NSW Australia Elizabeth Macarthur Agr Inst Dept Primary Ind NSW Menangle NSW Australia Univ Canberra Inst Appl Ecol Bruce ACT Australia Rabbit Free Australia Collinswood SA Australia Dept Primary Ind NSW Vertebrate Pest Res Unit Orange NSW Australia Dept Primary Ind & Reg Biosecur Urrbrae SA Australia

To mitigate the negative impacts of invasive rabbits in Australia, land managers are permitted to release the biocontrol virus, rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), to reduce rabbit numbers. However, it is strongly recommended that RHDV is not released when young rabbits are present in the population as infection in this cohort is sublethal and induces life-long virus immunity. The recruitment of these rabbits into the breeding population may make the population harder to control in future, potentially leading to increasing rather than decreased population size. To investigate whether the recommended release guidelines are followed, we obtained data on the supply and release of RHDV by land managers. We then used generalized additive models to investigate Australia-wide and state-specific annual and long-term temporal trends in the supply and release of RHDV. Half of all RHDV supply (47%) and three quarters of reported releases (74%) Australia-wide occurred during the anticipated major rabbit breeding seasons and when the risk of immunizing young rabbits is greatest. We found evidence of both RHDV supply and release during the anticipated major rabbit breeding seasons in almost all states for which data existed. RHDV supply increased with below average annual rainfall. This may indicate a tendency for land managers to notice, and want to control, rabbits and their impacts more following drier years when both rabbits and their impacts are potentially more damaging. Our study raises concerns regarding the inappropriate release of RHDV by land managers and whether its supply should be restricted to ensure ongoing and effective management of invasive rabbits. More broadly, our study serves as a warning to other conservation and pest management activities reliant on land managers or citizens following implementation guidelines. In some cases, good intentions may have adverse outcomes.

关键词： ecology generalized additive model land management landholder rabbit hemorrhagic disease temporal time series

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